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2020 USA Presidential Election Opinion Polls

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Replies: 155
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 20:54
In fact on those polls Biden stayed the same and Trump grabbed all the third party/undecided votes!

I am not sure.

Certainly we need to crunch a lot more numbers to understand this all properly.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 20:55
Now I just had a look at 538 there and in their final assessment they had Biden winning Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia. They also had Biden winning Florida which was wrong but so were plenty others regarding Florida. Overall not bad.
By:
tobermory
When: 08 Nov 20 20:58
politicspunter, the worth of the polls is in the numbers not who they have ahead.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:00
"I am not seeing a big late close here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election#Pennsylvania

When we went granular on Pennsylvania it appeared to be down to lack of support for third party candidates that got Biden over the line."

Ok, on October 11th the Biden lead was 6.5. On October 19th it was 6.1. On October 26th it was 5.1. On November 2nd it was 4.7.
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:02

Nov 8, 2020 -- 8:55PM, politicspunter wrote:


Now I just had a look at 538 there and in their final assessment they had Biden winning Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia. They also had Biden winning Florida which was wrong but so were plenty others regarding Florida. Overall not bad.


We do not look at this in a binary win/lose way.

Trump appears to have over performed the polls in the battleground states across the board apart from Arizona.

The bluewall was all massively overestimated in the polling when compared to the actual results.

By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:02
Once you get done to 4 point something, you are in margin of error country, anything can and often does happen.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:04
As I say, Trump was rapidly closing the gap in battleground states in the last week or so.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 08 Nov 20 21:04
There were plenty of modellers who were 290-300 biden

If you read the guys in the middle and ignore the
guys with dodgy stuff easily visable

You get pretty good results with trump a bit better
than forecast, despite a 2% adjustment from 2016 to trump.

Then you get Florida...
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:07

Nov 8, 2020 -- 9:02PM, politicspunter wrote:


Once you get done to 4 point something, you are in margin of error country, anything can and often does happen.


Fair point.

But the 'anything can happen' has gone against the Republicans more times than not in the last two Presidential elections.

How many times has the Democratic candidate overturned a four point deficit between the final polls and election day recently?

We need to look at this objectively and work out if (i) if this is occurring? and (ii) if it is occurring will it continue?

By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 08 Nov 20 21:10
Lots of data will come out in months ahead
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:11
But the 'anything can happen' has gone against the Republicans more times than not in the last two Presidential elections.

Erm, no.
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 21:13
Collins must have 'closed the gap' rather dramatically late on; alternative these polls were utter muck.

RCP
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon
Final Results    --    --    --    42.3    51.1    Collins +8.8
Emerson*    10/29 - 10/31    611 LV    3.9    48    42    Gideon +6
Colby College*    10/21 - 10/25    879 LV    3.3    47    43    Gideon +4
Pan Atlantic*    10/2 - 10/6    600 LV    4.5    47    40    Gideon +7
Bangor Daily News*    9/25 - 10/4    466 LV    --    44    43    Gideon +1
Colby College*    9/17 - 9/23    847 LV    3.4    45    41    Gideon +4
Boston Globe/Suffolk*    9/17 - 9/20    500 LV    4.4    46    41    Gideon +5
NY Times/Siena*    9/11 - 9/16    663 LV    5.1    49    44    Gideon +5
Quinnipiac    9/10 - 9/14    1183 LV    2.9    54    42    Gideon +12
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:14
What state did the a Democratic Presidential candidate win in 2020 or 2016 that he or she was 4% points behind in the average polls just before the election?
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:15

Nov 8, 2020 -- 9:14PM, frog1000 wrote:


What state did the a Democratic Presidential candidate win in 2020 or 2016 that he or she was 4% points behind in the average polls just before the election?


None I am aware of off the top of my head.

By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:17
I think we might be at crossed purposes here. I am saying that the polls underestimated the republican candidate in key battlegrounds in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:18
Exactly.

Our view is the polls have underestimated the Republican performance for 2 elections in a row in the battleground states.

A goal is to work out why.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:19
Collins must have 'closed the gap' rather dramatically late on; alternative these polls were utter muck.

Myself and some folks on here backed Collins at 4.5 a long time ago.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:21

Nov 8, 2020 -- 9:18PM, frog1000 wrote:


Exactly. Our view is the polls have underestimated the Republican performance for 2 elections in a row in the battleground states.A goal is to work out why.


It's because polls tend to tighten in battleground states the closer it is to the election as the candidate/party that is behind chucks the kitchen sink in.

By:
Hank Hill
When: 08 Nov 20 21:22
frog - are you employed in the polling industry?

We're all agreed that polls in the main have over-estimated Dems in key states right?

I know more about Texas than other states, but a more independent minded state like Maine can't be too surprising that it went more split ticket can it?

Do you think the flood of campaign money muddies the water? Collins's opponent had huge sums, but in the end Maine stuck with what they know and apparently like.
By:
tobermory
When: 08 Nov 20 21:25
Quinnipiac had Gideon winning Maine by 12 and Biden winning Wisconsin by 17
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:25
maine senate republican 4.5 betway
Aug 1, 07:44PM
Betway have the republican in the Maine Senate at 4.5. The democrat has a slight edge but this is close to a toss up.

Here is the PM I sent out, dated August 1st.
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 21:27
politicspunter 08 Nov 20 22:19 
...
Myself and some folks on here backed Collins at 4.5 a long time ago.


Congratulations. However, I would suggest that you didn't elect to do so on the basis of the polls above.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:28
maine senate republican 4.5 betway
Aug 1, 07:44PM
Betway have the republican in the Maine Senate at 4.5. The democrat has a slight edge but this is close to a toss up.

Here is the PM I sent out, dated August 1st.
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:28

Nov 8, 2020 -- 9:22PM, Hank Hill wrote:


frog - are you employed in the polling industry? We're all agreed that polls in the main have over-estimated Dems in key states right? I know more about Texas than other states, but a more independent minded state like Maine can't be too surprising that it went more split ticket can it? Do you think the flood of campaign money muddies the water? Collins's opponent had huge sums, but in the end Maine stuck with what they know and apparently like.


No I work in the Gambling industry.

We have done a fair bet of modelling in this area and keen to do more for future elections.

I think it could be good PR given the noise involved and the unobjective analysis that is often done in this field. The media seem fairly biased as do punters who support one candidate or the other.

Looking for analysis that can strip the emotion out of it.

By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:29
Removing the ego from the situation is important I think.
By:
Dave23
When: 08 Nov 20 21:31
Yes, I read your post of 22.25. I'm certainly not doubting that you placed the bet. I'm suggesting that 4.5 would not have represented value on the basis of the above polls.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:31
Just to say that in that Maine senate race 538 had Gideon 59/41 favourite in their final model.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 08 Nov 20 21:31
It's probably even harder to remove bias than in sports.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:33
Collins should have been 2.44 in 538s final model.
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:34
In global sports markets not much bias exists. Sure England are often over bet by UK punters but that is offset. In this race the vast majority of bets were placed on Trump to win even though the polls suggested otherwise.
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:38

Nov 8, 2020 -- 9:34PM, frog1000 wrote:


In global sports markets not much bias exists. Sure England are often over bet by UK punters but that is offset. In this race the vast majority of bets were placed on Trump to win even though the polls suggested otherwise.


Schhh, for gods sake, are you trying to ruin me?Grin

By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:51

Nov 8, 2020 -- 9:38PM, politicspunter wrote:


Nov  8, 2020 -- 10:34PM, frog1000 wrote:In global sports markets not much bias exists. Sure England are often over bet by UK punters but that is offset. In this race the vast majority of bets were placed on Trump to win even though the polls suggested otherwise.Schhh, for gods sake, are you trying to ruin me?


Apologies.

I thought it was common knowledge over 70% of backer money went on Trump with bookies.

By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:53
It is, but don't broadcast that it was nutsGrin
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:53
Hills have Trump at 9.0 to win in 2024
By:
politicspunter
When: 08 Nov 20 21:54
Which Trump?
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:55
2024 Sky / Hills

Kamala Harris
       

4.5       

4.5       
                                                                   
Joe Biden
       

6       

5.5       

                                                                   
Donald Trump
       

11       

9   

                                                                       
Mike Pence
       

12       

11   

                                                                       
Nikki Haley
       

15       

15   

                                                                       
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
       

17       

15   

                                                                       
Ivanka Trump
       

26       

26
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:56
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024/winner
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:56
AOC 17.0 !
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:56
Nikki Haley interesting.
By:
frog1000
When: 08 Nov 20 21:57
As is Harris.

Biden and Donald a lay at those prices for sure.
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