When will B/f settle presidency market?

From Betfair (alerted to me, no less) -

We have now settled the Next President Exchange market after confirmation from the Electoral College...

Dec 15, Update
The Electoral College formally cast its votes on December 14 and this enabled us to settle the remaining Betfair Exchange markets on the US election.

The Next President market rules stipulated that we would settle the market on the candidate that had the most projected Electoral College votes.

Following the Electoral College votes being cast, that candidate is clearly Joe Biden.

Thanks for your patience.

It essentially admits that they don’t know what projection means but it’s nice that they made the effort, I suppose.

While I don’t at all agree, I can live with the way they (mis)handled the main market. I can even sort of see how they might justify waiting for the electoral college votes for the state markets, although this is even more tenuous. How they can justify not having settled popular vote numbers, percentages etc. where the market rules specified totals as per CNN, I just have no idea though. And that’s cost me a fair bit of cash, given that if they’d liberated those markets once the totals were clear (the vote numbers markets they could have settled once Biden went past 75m and Trump 70m, in fact), I could have reinvested it, although to be fair, in markets that they also ought to have settled, just a bit less obviously so.

I can understand their hesitation, but they backed themselves
into a hole. They are out of it now.

But rules are rules in these markets and one day they will
end up getting stung if they don't stick to em.

Again!

Dec 15, 2020 -- 7:51AM, politicspunter wrote:

The night of the election was great fun. Trump never won a single democrat held state but because he was winning states that he already held and they were counting in person on the day votes first, his price shortened dramatically which was completely bonkers.

Politicspunter, your 'check the main thread' posts are giving the impression that, if someone were to look back at the hours that Trump was sub 1.50, they would see a load of Biden backers saying that Joe had it in the bag and the odds were a gift. The reality is, after contributing about 85% of posts pre election, the Biden backers almost entirely stopped posting and disappeared from the thread. Those that remained on the thread were certainly not calling it for Joe at the time.

And of course Trump did not need to win a single state from the Democrats and I can't recall anyone predicting he would.

You might be right on that Tobes but weighing up the situation in the darkest hours does not allow time to post comments. Deeds not words time. I think PP did say several times the roll up votes had been counted first and then the postal votes would follow over the days. TBF it did not look good on the face of it particularly when 4 years ago it was hard to envisage a pussay grabbing, philandering, criminal, racist not to mention stupid man without political experience being voted into office as the most powerful man in the World!

I think we all knew that the late counted postal votes would favour Biden, but the Trump leads in those states were much bigger than had been anticipated.

Dec 15, 2020 -- 12:10PM, tobermory wrote:

Dec 15, 2020 --  2:51PM, politicspunter wrote:The night of the election was great fun. Trump never won a single democrat held state but because he was winning states that he already held and they were counting in person on the day votes first, his price shortened dramatically which was completely bonkers.Politicspunter, your 'check the main thread' posts are giving the impression that, if someone were to look back at the hours that Trump was sub 1.50, they would see a load of Biden backers saying that Joe had it in the bag and the odds were a gift. The reality is, after contributing about 85% of posts pre election, the Biden backers almost entirely stopped posting and disappeared from the thread. Those that remained on the thread were certainly not calling it for Joe at the time.

I didn't disappear from the thread. Some Trump backers did manage to humiliate themselves though

There was plenty of info about red  mirage

It did look like trump might be just about Fav at one point

But the odds never made trump the value



A few right wingers got a bit carried away which was
a shame to have missed

I must admit Tobe I backed Biden in Wisconsin as I thought the postal votes would see him through, but I did hold back on PA when I saw he was over 800k+ behind. I wasn't sure even though Biden would be heavily favoured in the postal votes it would be enough.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/vote-counting-today-polls-election.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

I posted these on the main thread.

To be fair the rules stated projected winner, anything that happens after that is not part of the rules

Its why I haven't moaned about losing money, yes I kinda misunderstood the rule slightly, it did state electoral college projection but felt a div after ranting about it a couple of weeks ago and didn't alter my stance at the time

But rules are rules and Biden won on those rules

How did Trump backers humiliate themselves. Surely more embarrassing to be shouting about Biden winning easily, vanish from the thread when it isn't looking good, then come back when he's won saying I told you so. It reminded me of the old days of the football forum, there would be a bunch of guys claiming to be pro punters whose only idea of a bet was backing Real/Barca @1.17 or so. If they were playing they'd be all over page 1 of the thread, but then Barca go 0-2 down and they vanish, 1-2, still no sign , 2-2, still no posts, then, 3-2 on 89th minute, and all these shrewdies from page 1 suddenly post 'BOOM!' etc in unison. It's not a good look.

I know Politicspunter and Fatslogger were here. Fatslogger posted a further Trump lay. But neither of them were expressing confidence about Biden winning at that time. And of course most of them were nowhere to be seen, there had been plenty of them a couple of hours earlier.

I don't recall the phrase 'red mirage' being posted here during that time.

Anyway, it's not a matter of debate, as Politicspunter says, you can go back to the thread for the relevant time. Anyone looking for 'Joe has got this' type posts during the 90 minurtes or so that Trump was trading 1.25-1.45 is going to be disappointed.

Whisperingdeath • December 15, 2020 6:26 PM GMT
You might be right on that Tobes but weighing up the situation in the darkest hours does not allow time to post comments. Deeds not words time. I think PP did say several times the roll up votes had been counted first and then the postal votes would follow over the days. TBF it did not look good on the face of it particularly when 4 years ago it was hard to envisage a pussay grabbing, philandering, criminal, racist not to mention stupid man without political experience being voted into office as the most powerful man in the World!

If Trumpers wanted to fill the forum thread on election night with their drivel because Trump appeared to be ahead but wasn't really, that was up to them. I had made the position clear on a number of occasions, both before election night and on the night itself.

I also recall Daniel posting quite a few times.

Big Don was cruising though, it was becoming a landslide and the boom the lights went out, came back to find Undertaker standing over the ballot counting

Yes, PP, we know that you said pre election that the late postal vote would count in favour of Biden. I said it myself pre election. We all knew this. That is not the same as having said the late postal vote would win it for Biden

Whatever the position at 4am our time in Penn,Wisconsin etc , we knew Biden was going to improve. The expectation however was that the Trump on the day leads would be much smaller.

Big Don wasn't cruising and it was never going to be a landslide (for him). He never won a single democrat held state but he did lose five he held previously.

Dec 15, 2020 -- 1:08PM, tobermory wrote:

Yes, PP, we know that you said pre election that the late postal vote would count in favour of Biden. I said it myself pre election. We all knew this. That is not the same as having said the late postal vote would win it for BidenWhatever the position at 4am our time in Penn,Wisconsin etc , we knew Biden was going to improve. The expectation however was that the Trump on the day leads would be much smaller.

To you, perhaps.

The best place to follow what was happening on election night was with John King on CNN. His knowledge of counties within states was truly awesome.

Why would any serious punter be posting on the Betfair forum at that time with a million things going on? Serious punters were busy looking for data to try and work out what was going on before the rest of the market.

CNN were constantly telling the viewers to expect a red mirage many weeks before election day. The data analysts I was following were saying Biden was outperforming Hillary in the counties they were studying. Those who were fooled and piled into Trump at short prices only have themselves to blame for not being better informed.

Politicspunter,

The idea that everything was going to plan for Biden when Trump was 1.33 was not something anyone was stating on here. We can go back and check but I just don't really think there were any posts like that. Your own posts at that time, from what I recall, were along the lines of 'let's see, it's still early, Biden has the most promising states to come'. You were certainly not waving the white flag, or doing a vanishing act, but if it was obvious that Biden was going to win at the time (as you claim it was now) surely you would have been much more bullish in your posts at that time ?

The idea that Trump was in trouble because he was not winning any Democrat held states that Hilary won, I am baffled at the relevance of that. The entire election was about how many Trump '16 states Biden could gain.

I think Jack sums it up pretty well in his post above yours.

Tobermory restating he sings when he's winning

The 'red mirage' was that Trump was going to have many small leads on the night that would be reversed to huge leads for Biden when the mail vote came in.

Not that Trump would be up by huge margins and that Biden was going to come back and win those states by 1% or less.

If folks thought that Trump odds of around 1.33 during election night represented his true chances, they were extremely foolish. The prices for both candidates were completely wrong leading up to the election, as was said by myself and others on many, many occasions.

Of course, Trump should have been much shorter pre election (and much bigger than 1.33 when he hit that)

Trump should have been around 9.0 pre election, Biden 1.1, as was said many times and was proven to be correct.

How was it 'proven to be correct' ?

Because Biden won ?

Logically then, 1.01 was value for Trump in 2016.

The basis for Biden being an actual 1.10 chance pre election was that the polls were correct. The polls significantly underestimated Trump so they were not correct.

Tobermory, this is the point. Trump did perform better than in the polls particularly in Republican held states. However, he was so far behind in the polls that despite a massive on the day turnout for him and narrowing the poll lead in many battleground states/national vote, he still lost and lost clearly. 1.1 Biden was the correct price.

Imagine a scenario where the vote totals were announced but not which candidate had which votes.

So you knew that Pennsylvania was won by 1%, Florida was won 3.5% etc, but not who by. And then there was a 24hr period where no one knew. What would the betting be ? I expect about 1.80 Biden or bigger.

Biden could only be a genuine 1.10 chance if there was a strong possibility he could win easily, with comfortable margins in the necessary states. The 'mirage' that the polls gave us was the possibility of a Biden Landslide. The market never bought it , but a few on here did.

A genuine 1.10 chance, say Liverpool to win at home to Wycombe, was still a genuine 1.10 chance even if Liverpool win 4-3 with an injury time deflected goal. Because we know if they played them 10 times then Liverpool would have a few wins by 5 or 6 goals. There is no way Biden would ever beat Trump with ease, should never be near 1.10. Absolutely everything went his way and he was scraping home barely above the recount margin.

Biden did win easily. Trump won by 306-232 in 2016 and he declared it a landslide. Biden won by 306-232. All Biden needed to do was, first of all, hold on to all the states won by Hillary in 2016. He achieved that, very easily. Next, he had to win three states that Trump had won by a combined total in 2016 of less than 100K, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  He achieved that. He also won Georgia and Arizona into the bargain. All the polls suggested he would win the first three and had roughly a 50/50 shot in the next two. He also had decent chances in five other states which Trump held on to. Trump would have had to have simply everything dropping for him in every state and it was a bridge far too far.

Not sure what else Tobermory is saying except he got excited
whilst folk were in bed so his false crowing fell on deaf ears perhaps.

Aftetiming aftetiming is a new one to me...

Obviously neither Trump or Biden won landslides. How close an election is has always been determined by the % swing required to reverse the result. Ans here it was very small.

I don't know about aftertiming. I was here from midnight or just after til about 8am and don't recall stating Trump had it won. The Biden backers were not in bed, they were silently seething on the thread until it was safe to post.

If you split elections into constituencies and back fit the result it will
nearly always be close.

Tories have 80 seat majority but swap less than 50k votes and majority
is gone...

Like I say, aftertiming aftertiming, it's bizarre
but then most of you MAGA boys seem to be still in
shock

The simple thing is what % swing, uniform across all states or constituencies, is required to reverse the result.

Here I think it was 1% or less without looking it up.

That seems a fair measurement, not the same as allocating a bigger swing where it is needed (which I think is what would be required to make '19 GElection result different)

Dec 15, 2020 -- 3:06PM, tobermory wrote:

Obviously neither Trump or Biden won landslides. How close an election is has always been determined by the % swing required to reverse the result. Ans here it was very small.I don't know about aftertiming. I was here from midnight or just after til about 8am and don't recall stating Trump had it won. The Biden backers were not in bed, they were silently seething on the thread until it was safe to post.

On the contrary, folks like fats, Daniel and myself posted quite a few times. However, as already said, I think Jack sums it up best...

Jack Bauer '24' • December 15, 2020 7:37 PM GMT
Why would any serious punter be posting on the Betfair forum at that time with a million things going on? Serious punters were busy looking for data to try and work out what was going on before the rest of the market.

CNN were constantly telling the viewers to expect a red mirage many weeks before election day. The data analysts I was following were saying Biden was outperforming Hillary in the counties they were studying. Those who were fooled and piled into Trump at short prices only have themselves to blame for not being better informed.

My posts on the main thread during the 2 peak Trump hours...

Trump seems rather short @1.47 on known data

Biden looking good in Arizona though ?

I agree it seems more of a coin flip than a 65-35 Trump.

Trump hitting 1.24 was pretty crazy

There wasn't a uniform swing

I mean a uniform swing away from the actual result, which changes the result, is the best measure of how close an election was. Rather than the precise number of seats or EC votes.

Yes but that wouldn't happen

As I said above if you backfit result it will be close,
even a tory 80 seat majority landslide can be picked apart
if you choose which votes you want to change

In any case, I joined in this thread because breadnbutter asked how the Biden backers were coping during the time that Trump was 1.25 -1.45 and Politicspunter suggested to look at the thread as Biden backers were never in doubt.

I have the threads set to 40 posts per page, so, for me, page 169 is where Trump hits odds on, the price crashes further, and for the next 2 hours is mostly sub 1.50. This two hours ends on page 176.

If you can find all the Biden backer posts talking about red mirage etc then you have done a better job than me as I was struggling to find many Biden backer posts at all.

Feel free to post all of mine.

even a tory 80 seat majority landslide can be picked apart
if you choose which votes you want to change

But that's now what anyone is doing in saying that Trump would have won with a 1% better result across the board in each state. That is just the normal way of deciding how close an election was.

And always has been. So people say if Nixon was 0.5% better off in  1960 he would have beaten JFK.

It's different than saying, 'well if he was 5% better off in this state, and 3% better here, and 7% there... "

Yes, you posted during that time Politicspunter, (unlike many) and you were not conceding, but neither were you stating confidently that Biden was going to win.

Well, as I must have done so dozens of times already on the now 15,000 post long main thread, I don't think that should have been in doubt to anyone. Besides, I was concentrating on counties in battleground states being updated on CNN and the New York Times excellent site.

So folk reporting and not ramping are being criticised

Ffs

What do you want? Wall to wall ramping?

I thought we were here to make cash?

Someone earlier Thanking Trump Punters for their Money ,anyone who bet trump and didnt show a profit ,should not be punting on these markets , as for Joe bettors many done their  absolutes trying to get out ,Or took a hit and walked ,not that many will admit it .

Dec 15, 2020 -- 3:55PM, the old nanny ;-) wrote:

Someone earlier Thanking Trump Punters for their Money ,anyone who bet trump and didnt show a profit ,should not be punting on these markets , as for Joe bettors many done their

the old nanny ;-) • December 15, 2020 9:55 PM GMT
Someone earlier Thanking Trump Punters for their Money ,anyone who bet trump and didnt show a profit ,should not be punting on these markets , as for Joe bettors many done their  absolutes trying to get out ,Or took a hit and walked ,not that many will admit it .

Evidence for your guesses please?

Some idiots were backing trump this week, last week and week before

encouraging the gullible to join them with zero chance of collecting

anyone who bet trump and didnt show a profit ,should not be punting on these markets


I think most Trump supporters have lost their money on this election.

Thread closed now, Trump is officially...

tobermory
15 Dec 20 21:06
Joined: 01 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 51,057 | Blogger: tobermory's blog
The 'red mirage' was that Trump was going to have many small leads on the night that would be reversed to huge leads for Biden when the mail vote came in.

Not that Trump would be up by huge margins and that Biden was going to come back and win those states by 1% or less.

I didn't follow this on the night as much as most. I was on the NY times website and they had trump up by say 250k in Pen and their analyst said that's not enough. that was about 2am.

It was built up to 800k at about 7am

I think Trump was ahead in Pennsylvania by around 800K votes at one stage.

ok, I was out by then. I backed biden at 1.5 but I obvs didn't see the "worst"

by out I mean I was sleeping

Trump was 3 on when I went to bed

I had shrewdly got out Having bet him at 2 and laid at 5-4  Pmsl Not for me the trading game tbh

BetfairCS reply to someone asking what they’ll do if Trump is inaugurated:

@mikeoffoftheuk The settlement would be investigated further however for the time being we are happy with how the markets have been settled out!!

What the hell sort of answer is this? You don’t use “for the time being” in relation to the settlement of a 1.7 billion market!

Bit of a silly answer presumably trying to placate a nut case. I mean, Trump isn’t going to be inaugurated so they can say anything they like about the possibility.

Incidentally, Trump now trading under 40s to exit in 2025 or later.

They’ll get away with it but you don’t want them spouting nonsense. Market was settled in accordance with market rules and no subsequent events change that.  If there’s the merest hint that resettlement is possible they’ll create a stampede among nervous winners.

If it turns out there has been widescale voter fraud
and trump is inaugurated they may end up paying out twice.

But only pay trump backers after their change of rules.


Of course its not going to happen but it has been something
that betfair have been made to do in the past


One example was mad world Xmas number one

Dec 16, 2020 -- 3:04AM, Total Bosman wrote:

They’ll get away with it but you don’t want them spouting nonsense. Market was settled in accordance with market rules and no subsequent events change that.

Yes, agree with you, TB.

Betfair paid out on Mitt Romney winning Iowa primary in 2012. After recount, Rick Santorum was declared the winner.

You can still back trump to leave office in 2021 at 1.06  Plenty still backing Trump to remain preident till 2025 now 30 from 70 couple of days ago.

You can still back trump to leave office in 2021 at 1.06  Plenty still backing Trump to remain preident till 2025 now 30 from 70 couple of days ago.

I would avoid that 2021 market because there is a danger that Trump might walk this year.

The 2025 market is a sure thing.

Dec 16, 2020 -- 9:06AM, politicspunter wrote:

I would avoid that 2021 market because there is a danger that Trump might walk this year.

I’ve had a saver or two on him leaving this year, which seemed worthwhile at 70 and 75. The 2021/2025 lines are bonkers but hardly out of keeping with what we already know about irrational Trump related beliefs.

Dec 16, 2020 -- 5:23AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

If it turns out there has been widescale voter fraudand trump is inaugurated they may end up paying out twice. But only pay trump backers after their change of rules. Of course its not going to happen but it has been somethingthat betfair have been made to do in the pastOne example was mad world Xmas number one

What was the story with the number one market YHTL ?

They voided a load of bets on Gary jules and
added garry jules and mich Anderson or something
along those lines, settled market then ibas found
they were wrong and they had to pay out on both
But if you had backed both you only got payout
up to your best win, not on both outcomes.

Or along those lines... Some of the specials boys
may remember better

Think IBAS got that right.

Aye some folk had some nice bets at decent prices, and
of course the new option was not anywhere near same price.

Apologies if this YouTube video has been mentioned before, but it was only released a couple of days ago......

Some interesting observations on Betfair's Settlement of the 'Next President' Market.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2H21xxjvrM

He's not really read the market rules, and seems a tad unhinged anyway.

Hard to tell now the nutters from the satirists

I'm going to have to have another word with him.

It's only interesting if you're a nutter and/or still expecting a miracle to save your dough. There were not two sets of conflicting electors unless you're a conspiritard and it wouldn't have made any difference if there was.

http://treeincarnation.com/homepage.htm

http://www.breakfornews.com/index.htm

Fairplay to Fintan he looks exactly like a dribbling conspiretard loon ought to and fairplay to him too his forum has thousands of posts and he appears to have made them all, just shows how a man on long term Disability Allowance can spend his time.

In his youtube video he says he backed Trump at 23/1

A former Houston police captain charged with running a man off the road and pointing a gun at his head over a voter fraud conspiracy theory did not appear in court Thursday.

Mark Aguirre, 63, was expected to make his first court appearance in Harris County. Instead, attorney Terry Yates said Aguirre has Covid-19, and brought his test results to the court.

Yates said Aguirre "wasn't doing well" when they spoke last night.

See more
The judge requested that they try again Friday and asked if Aguirre can appear via Zoom.

Yates said they would try, but that Aguirre doesn't have a phone and he's not sure if he has a laptop.

Aguirre was arrested Tuesday and is charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, a second-degree felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison, prosecutors said. He posted $30,000 bond on Tuesday afternoon and is out of jail, according to Harris County court records.

Bond conditions were briefly discussed Thursday, but nothing was set since Aguirre wasn't present.

A former Houston police captain was charged Tuesday with running a man off the road and pointing a gun to his head two weeks before the election as part of a baseless voter fraud conspiracy theory, the Harris County district attorney said in a statement.

Mark Anthony Aguirre, 63, was paid more than a quarter-million dollars by a Houston-based private citizens group investigating unsubstantiated 2020 election fraud claims, prosecutors said.
On October 16, Aguirre asked a lieutenant with the Texas Attorney General's Office to conduct a traffic stop to help with his investigation, according to a Houston police affidavit obtained by CNN. When the idea was rejected, Aguirre said he would do it himself and "make a citizen's arrest," the affidavit says.
Three days later, Aguirre allegedly ran his SUV into the back of a man's truck, and when the man got out, Aguirre pointed a gun at him, forced him to the ground and put his knee on the man's back -- an image captured by police body camera when officers arrived, according to prosecutors.
Aguirre told authorities he had conducted surveillance on the man for four days, according to the district attorney's news release. Aguirre said he suspected there were 750,000 fraudulent ballots inside the truck and that the man was "the mastermind of a giant (voter) fraud," the release states.
In fact, the man was an "innocent and ordinary" air-conditioner repairman, prosecutors said. Responding authorities found no ballots inside the vehicle, only air conditioner parts and tools, prosecutors said.
A charging document from the Harris County district clerk's office identified the alleged victim as David Lopez-Zuniga.
CNN affiliate KPRC spoke with Lopez-Zuniga, who says he tried to assist Aguirre after they pulled off the side of the road following the initial collision.
"He said, 'Help me, help me' with a hand inside his coat," Lopez-Zuniga said in an interview. "Then when I tried to help him, he pulls out a gun."
KPRC reports Lopez-Zuniga felt he was about to be killed.
"Very, very close, because when I saw him unlock the safety I thought, 'He is going to shoot me,'" Lopez-Zuniga said.
After an investigation, Houston police said they found the allegations of election fraud "unfounded" and referred the case to the district attorney's office.
Aguirre was arrested Tuesday and is charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, a second-degree felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison, prosecutors said. He posted $30,000 bond on Tuesday afternoon and is out of jail, according to Harris County court records.
"If they can give him prison, give him prison," Lopez-Zuniga told KPRC.
'He crossed the line'
The incident is one of the most serious consequences of the conspiracy theories around systemic voter fraud, which have been repeatedly debunked. President Donald Trump has continued to claim that widespread voter fraud occurred during the election, but election officials have rejected the claim and his team of attorneys have produced no evidence in court to support it.

Former Houston police captain charged with pointing gun at repairman, believing he was a voter fraud 'mastermind'
By Josh Campbell, Gisela Crespo, Kay Jones, Ashley Killough and Eric Levenson, CNN

Updated 0226 GMT (1026 HKT) December 17, 2020
Mark Anthony Aguirre, former captain with the Houston Police Department, who was part of a private citizens group trying to investigate 2020 election fraud claims, has been charged with running a man off the road and pointing a gun to his head, the Harris County District attorney announced on Tuesday.

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Winter storm will bring heavy snow to Northeast
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Electoral College formally affirms Biden's presidential win

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Trump tweets about Bill Barr's departure from White House

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Mark Anthony Aguirre, former captain with the Houston Police Department, who was part of a private citizens group trying to investigate 2020 election fraud claims, has been charged with running a man off the road and pointing a gun to his head, the Harris County District attorney announced on Tuesday.
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(CNN)A former Houston police captain was charged Tuesday with running a man off the road and pointing a gun to his head two weeks before the election as part of a baseless voter fraud conspiracy theory, the Harris County district attorney said in a statement.

Mark Anthony Aguirre, 63, was paid more than a quarter-million dollars by a Houston-based private citizens group investigating unsubstantiated 2020 election fraud claims, prosecutors said.
On October 16, Aguirre asked a lieutenant with the Texas Attorney General's Office to conduct a traffic stop to help with his investigation, according to a Houston police affidavit obtained by CNN. When the idea was rejected, Aguirre said he would do it himself and "make a citizen's arrest," the affidavit says.
Three days later, Aguirre allegedly ran his SUV into the back of a man's truck, and when the man got out, Aguirre pointed a gun at him, forced him to the ground and put his knee on the man's back -- an image captured by police body camera when officers arrived, according to prosecutors.
Aguirre told authorities he had conducted surveillance on the man for four days, according to the district attorney's news release. Aguirre said he suspected there were 750,000 fraudulent ballots inside the truck and that the man was "the mastermind of a giant (voter) fraud," the release states.
In fact, the man was an "innocent and ordinary" air-conditioner repairman, prosecutors said. Responding authorities found no ballots inside the vehicle, only air conditioner parts and tools, prosecutors said.
A charging document from the Harris County district clerk's office identified the alleged victim as David Lopez-Zuniga.
CNN affiliate KPRC spoke with Lopez-Zuniga, who says he tried to assist Aguirre after they pulled off the side of the road following the initial collision.
"He said, 'Help me, help me' with a hand inside his coat," Lopez-Zuniga said in an interview. "Then when I tried to help him, he pulls out a gun."
KPRC reports Lopez-Zuniga felt he was about to be killed.
"Very, very close, because when I saw him unlock the safety I thought, 'He is going to shoot me,'" Lopez-Zuniga said.
After an investigation, Houston police said they found the allegations of election fraud "unfounded" and referred the case to the district attorney's office.
Aguirre was arrested Tuesday and is charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, a second-degree felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison, prosecutors said. He posted $30,000 bond on Tuesday afternoon and is out of jail, according to Harris County court records.
"If they can give him prison, give him prison," Lopez-Zuniga told KPRC.
'He crossed the line'
The incident is one of the most serious consequences of the conspiracy theories around systemic voter fraud, which have been repeatedly debunked. President Donald Trump has continued to claim that widespread voter fraud occurred during the election, but election officials have rejected the claim and his team of attorneys have produced no evidence in court to support it.
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"He crossed the line from dirty politics to commission of a violent crime and we are lucky no one was killed," Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg said in a statement. "His alleged investigation was backward from the start -- first alleging a crime had occurred and then trying to prove it happened."
Aguirre attorney Terry Yates told CNN affiliate KTRK that he believed the arrest is "political persecution."
"He was working and investigating voter fraud, there was an accident," Yates said. "A member of the car got out and rushed toward him and that's where the confrontation took place. It's very different than what you're citing in the affidavit."
Prosecutors say Aguirre was paid more than $260,000 by a private group called "Liberty Center for God and Country" to investigate alleged ballot schemes in the Houston area. He received about $211,400 the day following the incident.
Jared Woodfill, the center's president, told CNN the group and Republican activist Steve Hotze hired a private firm that included "Aguirre, a former FBI investigator and about 20 investigators that investigated reports of voter fraud," reports that were sent to Hotze.
The Republican activist was also one of the plaintiffs who filed a petition prior to Election Day seeking to invalidate 127,000 ballots cast in drive-thru early voting. A federal judge rejected that request.
CNN has reached out to Hotze for comment.
Affidavit details the baseless theory
According to the Houston police affidavit, Aguirre told police at the scene he was "investigating a voter fraud ballot harvesting conspiracy" that he claimed the victim, identified in the affidavit as DL, was operating out of his home. Aguirre said that DL had approximately 750,000 fraudulent mail ballots and accused him of "using Hispanic children to sign the ballots" because their fingerprints wouldn't be in any databases.
CNN has reached out to Lopez-Zuniga but has not been able to speak with him.
According to DL's statement to police, while he was on the ground being held by Aguirre, two other cars pulled up and Aguirre instructed one of those drivers to search DL's truck. After telling Aguirre that the truck was clear, DL's truck was driven away from the scene. Police found his truck abandoned a short time later a few blocks away, the affidavit states.
Aguirre told the police at the scene that he had been surveilling DL's home for four days. Police searched DL's home with his permission, the affidavit states, and did not find any evidence of voter fraud or ballot harvesting.
Aguirre also told the officers at the scene that they "can be a hero or part of the problem," the affidavit states.
"I just hope you are a patriot," Aguirre told police according the affidavit.
Court records show that Aguirre's preliminary hearing is scheduled for Thursday morning in Harris County.

Ffs..


This continues on from before that huge thing



"He crossed the line from dirty politics to commission of a violent crime and we are lucky no one was killed," Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg said in a statement. "His alleged investigation was backward from the start -- first alleging a crime had occurred and then trying to prove it happened."
Aguirre attorney Terry Yates told CNN affiliate KTRK that he believed the arrest is "political persecution."
"He was working and investigating voter fraud, there was an accident," Yates said. "A member of the car got out and rushed toward him and that's where the confrontation took place. It's very different than what you're citing in the affidavit."
Prosecutors say Aguirre was paid more than $260,000 by a private group called "Liberty Center for God and Country" to investigate alleged ballot schemes in the Houston area. He received about $211,400 the day following the incident.
Jared Woodfill, the center's president, told CNN the group and Republican activist Steve Hotze hired a private firm that included "Aguirre, a former FBI investigator and about 20 investigators that investigated reports of voter fraud," reports that were sent to Hotze.
The Republican activist was also one of the plaintiffs who filed a petition prior to Election Day seeking to invalidate 127,000 ballots cast in drive-thru early voting. A federal judge rejected that request.
CNN has reached out to Hotze for comment.
Affidavit details the baseless theory
According to the Houston police affidavit, Aguirre told police at the scene he was "investigating a voter fraud ballot harvesting conspiracy" that he claimed the victim, identified in the affidavit as DL, was operating out of his home. Aguirre said that DL had approximately 750,000 fraudulent mail ballots and accused him of "using Hispanic children to sign the ballots" because their fingerprints wouldn't be in any databases .
CNN has reached out to Lopez-Zuniga but has not been able to speak with him.
According to DL's statement to police, while he was on the ground being held by Aguirre, two other cars pulled up and Aguirre instructed one of those drivers to search DL's truck. After telling Aguirre that the truck was clear, DL's truck was driven away from the scene. Police found his truck abandoned a short time later a few blocks away, the affidavit states.
Aguirre told the police at the scene that he had been surveilling DL's home for four days. Police searched DL's home with his permission, the affidavit states, and did not find any evidence of voter fraud or ballot harvesting.
Aguirre also told the officers at the scene that they "can be a hero or part of the problem," the affidavit states.
"I just hope you are a patriot," Aguirre told police according the affidavit.
Court records show that Aguirre's preliminary hearing is scheduled for Thursday morning in Harris County.

Truly incredible! I can't make out who is the biggest nutter, the gun toting mercenary or the clowns that paid him.

It's Texas, don't be surprised a not guilty verdict is returned

The patriots that paid him...

jeez, whats the long and the short of it........

My in-laws live in Houston - an odd place to say the least. Never trust any group that has Liberty or similar in the title - usually they're the complete opposite. I want to say I'm surprised he is an ex cop, but there are a lot of conspiracy types in police/military.

Hard to know where to start with that insanity but assuming it's a recent story, what on earth did he think the poor bloke would have been doing with ballots in his van a month after the election?

It's 19th Oct in the story above....




On October 16, Aguirre asked a lieutenant with the Texas Attorney General's Office to conduct a traffic stop to help with his investigation, according to a Houston police affidavit obtained by CNN. When the idea was rejected, Aguirre said he would do it himself and "make a citizen's arrest," the affidavit says.
Three days later, Aguirre allegedly ran his SUV into the back of a man's truck, and when the man got out, Aguirre pointed a gun at him, forced him to the ground and put his knee on the man's back -- an image captured by police body camera when officers arrived, according to prosecutors.
Aguirre told authorities he had conducted surveillance on the man for four days, according to the district attorney's news release. Aguirre said he suspected there were 750,000 fraudulent ballots inside the truck and that the man was "the mastermind of a giant (voter) fraud," the release states.
In fact, the man was an "innocent and ordinary" air-conditioner repairman, prosecutors said. Responding authorities found no ballots inside the vehicle, only air conditioner parts and tools, prosecutors said.

Ah, that makes more sense.  To be fair, I could have read it again but I already felt I'd seen the same string of text more times than I really wanted to in my life.

Hadn't realised they'd run such well resourced stealing the vote grifts that early.

Indeed