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Cider
28 Oct 20 17:37
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 44,495 | Blogger: Cider's blog
There's no shift showing in the patterns of data whatsoever (as yet). Some might say four days in is too early to tell...

So, what changes in the natural progress of COVID 19 in the country would proponents of the extreme interventions from the Welsh assembly, and unbelievable cost in financial and social well being, consider to be a justifiable and successful outcome?
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Report Richie_Burnett November 22, 2020 1:24 PM GMT
Cider, you balloon.
Report mafeking November 22, 2020 3:24 PM GMT
the victorian lockdown was the fault of the govt making a complete fiasco of hotel quarantine and also a complete overreaction. have destroyed the economy for decades to come for a fraction of the number of cases and deaths compared to europe or the states which will undoubtedly result in many more deaths from other causes in the long term
Report Mexico November 22, 2020 5:09 PM GMT
Maf

In July Victoria & UK had comparable number of daily cases. Not sure the relevance of the initial rise in cases being because the isolation hotels had poor bio-security in place or for another reason. The number of cases per day was similar.

The Icke fans on here have been shouting that cases will go up in winter & nothing anybody can do.
Yet winner in Melbourne saw cases fall to zero while summer in UK saw cases increase 20 - 30 times.

Since July do you believe it is the UK or Aussies who have performed best in terms of Covid, economy, deaths etc.

We now have a situation where might have 5 days of Christmas "freedom " even if it means another 1 month semi-lockdown. That shouldn't happen in Sydney, Melbourne Brisbane etc.
Report Mexico November 22, 2020 5:15 PM GMT
Cider

Where is the data that cases were falling in October in England.
Generally areas in Boris's tier1 were increasing, cases were falling in the tier 3 areas but could take days even weeks to move some areas into tier 3.

I would be very surprised if rules in tier1 are not made stricter by December 2nd. Obviously apart from Christmas when the Virus has booked a holiday so we can party for a few days knowing cases won't rise.
Report peckerdunne November 22, 2020 5:18 PM GMT
He makes it up, and then shows bogey figures, supported by either adding or omitting a word from prom previous posts by him or others that debate his biased view.
Report mafeking November 22, 2020 5:51 PM GMT
australia and new zealand are a 10 hour flight from anywhere else. they are also largely empty with very low population density it's the one time their geographic isolation has been a benefit. you wouldn't have got a price on them having by far the lowest numbers of any western democracy
Report Mexico November 22, 2020 6:09 PM GMT
Oh dear Maf

WTF has the size/population of Northern Territories, Western Australia, South Australia got to do with Melbourne & Sydney.

Are these a couple of quaint market towns in the country side.
Maybe we should also include the oceans to bring down population density.


Being isolated may well have given OZ, NZ an advantage in Feb/March but in July the cases in Victoria was in the same ball park as UK.
Of course it was winter down under & summer in UK. Funny enough the Icke fans gave been saying cases will rise in winter yet they  fell in Victoria.
Still can't be social distancing can it.
Report Cider November 22, 2020 6:50 PM GMT
I want to keep this thread to Wales. However, as per below England rates had plateaued, beginning to come down, then lock down 2 was leaked to the media 30th Oct.

01-11-2020    130,818    232.4
31-10-2020    130,622    232.1
30-10-2020    129,783    230.6
29-10-2020    128,234    227.8
28-10-2020    127,884    227.2
27-10-2020    129,142    229.4
26-10-2020    129,962    230.9
25-10-2020    129,294    229.7
24-10-2020    127,979    227.4
Report Mexico November 22, 2020 7:03 PM GMT
Cider

At first glance that seems to be pretty unconvincing evidence that cases were falling in England. For a start the amount on 1Nov is higher than 24thOct - admittedly not by a massive % (looking at final cool- is that the correct data?)

The England system was very messy to make any sense by looking at data at overall level.
Generally tier1 wasn't fit for purpose- cases were rising in tier1.
Tier3 did seem to be bringing down cases although took ages to move an area into tier3. The furlough in Manchester was terrible plan from government. 3 weeks later they found the magic money tree when southern workers required help.

With it that messy & numbers actually increasing, I don't understand how could claim cases were falling


I would have preferred a 2 week Welsh style lockdown rather than this 4 week semi-lockdown even if we then moved into something between river 2 &3.
Report Cider November 22, 2020 7:11 PM GMT
As I said, the leaks of lockdown 2 and then the reality of it changed behaviour. It's not after timing, I wrote it on the England thread that they announced lockdown 2 when the evidence had started to show that the tiered response was beginning to be effective. Don't take it from me, it's been widely reported subsequently that the presentation on that Saturday they were scrambling around for used data three weeks out of date, without including any effect of the tiered strategy.
Report Cider November 26, 2020 1:18 PM GMT

Nov 21, 2020 -- 11:02AM, Cider wrote:


16-11-2020

Report Cider November 26, 2020 1:19 PM GMT
16-11-2020    178.9
15-11-2020    179.8
14-11-2020    182
13-11-2020    181.3
12-11-2020    181.8
11-11-2020    190.7
10-11-2020      198.2
09-11-2020    206.3
08-11-2020    218.8
07-11-2020    226.8
06-11-2020    235.7
05-11-2020    247.3
04-11-2020    265.3
03-11-2020    273.7
02-11-2020    281.9
01-11-2020    286.6
31-10-2020    286.4
30-10-2020    291
29-10-2020    289.7
28-10-2020    273

They did not fall by half. They fell by a third, see above which is the rolling rate per 100,000.

As I keep repeating, reported case numbers falling temporarily was expected, by me at least. Supporters of the lockdown will need to see something more tangible.



20-11-2020    6,117    194
19-11-2020    6,043    191.7
18-11-2020    5,859    185.8
17-11-2020    5,727    181.6
16-11-2020    5,651    179.2
15-11-2020    5,676    180
14-11-2020    5,744    182.2
Report Mexico November 26, 2020 1:44 PM GMT
Cider

Doesn't that data suggest that the Welsh 2 week lockdown reduced infections & it was when lockdown ended that cases increased by about 10% in a week.
Report Cider November 26, 2020 1:53 PM GMT
Exactly. So what justifies the monumental holistic cost of lockdown, if positive cases simply return to rising after it ends.
Report Cider November 26, 2020 2:00 PM GMT
covid positive deaths in Wales are averaging higher than before the lockdown.
Report nineteen points November 26, 2020 2:13 PM GMT
mex,leicester been in full lockdown since pontius was a pilot so do you think their lockdown is working?
Report Mexico November 26, 2020 2:19 PM GMT
Cider

Those figures are suggesting that the cases increase when not in lockdown and decrease due to lockdown.

And somehow you are using that data to suggest that the lockdown doesn't reduce cases.



Not sure what data you are referring to regarding higher cases in Wales now than before lockdown. The data you posted had just under 300 before lockdown compared to just under 200 now.
Report Cider November 26, 2020 2:28 PM GMT
Mexico, all along I've said the lockdown with reduce positive test results for a short period of time. I'm not sure you're reading what I post correctly. I wrote that covid positive deaths are higher now than before the lockdown.

So what justifies the monumental holistic cost of lockdown.
Report Cider November 26, 2020 2:31 PM GMT
Positive tests are higher than they were on 18-10-2020. Which is a nominal stat anyway.
Report Mexico November 26, 2020 2:39 PM GMT
Cider

The death rate should start to fall in Wales soon. there is a time lag between getting infected, testing positive, going to hospital, dying.

The restrictions are intended to keep deaths at an "acceptable level" will prob be about 80k+ in UK by summer??
Not sure if that is acceptable or worth the cost. Is 80k too few, there was an option proposed last March for more deaths but fewer restrictions.

I think the UK government have been poor since end of lockdown 1. Allays reacting to data which is by nature out of date, they were "offered" a 2 week lockdown in September but went for this 2-3 month one instead .
Report Cider November 26, 2020 3:30 PM GMT
This thread is explicitly about Wales where health is devolved. And their independent decision to have a 'firebreak'.
Report Cider November 26, 2020 3:34 PM GMT
People die, it's fact of life (and death). The economic and welfare damage, along with the associated cost to health and wellbeing is caused by the policy choice of a lockdown in reaction to a new virus.
Report Mexico November 26, 2020 3:37 PM GMT
Ok

So the Welsh fire break was successful as cases dropped.

I think you will find that the "monumental costs" won't just be paid for by Welsh government. Wales is part of UK & although have power over health not over paying for it.
As they say - we are all in this together.

The 4 nations are actually fairly united in how deal with the virus. They want local measures but prepared for national measures if it all goes wrong.
Report Cider November 26, 2020 3:55 PM GMT
They have been paid for by the Welsh people though. I'm sure the people made redundant as will look back at the case positive graph dipping temporarily and acknowledge it was worth it.
Report Richie_Burnett November 26, 2020 4:13 PM GMT
1% positive tests in Merthyr TydfilDevil
Report Cider November 27, 2020 6:33 PM GMT
oh dear
Report Cider November 30, 2020 12:55 PM GMT
Wales BANS pubs from selling alcoholic drinks and introduces 6pm CURFEW as it heads for ANOTHER lockdown less than four weeks after its 'firebreak' with infection rate up 31 per cent
Report peckerdunne November 30, 2020 1:05 PM GMT
As i told you at the start of the first firebreak..

Still dying by the way.
Report peckerdunne November 30, 2020 1:07 PM GMT
What i keep repeating is that 2 week FB is no good, you need a sustained lockdown of 12 week suppression....
Report Cider November 30, 2020 1:12 PM GMT
So one might reasonably assert, the experiment has FAILED. As was evidently both predictable and inevitable.
Report nineteen points November 30, 2020 1:14 PM GMT
some eedjit keep saying

more lockdowns
more masks
more cases

obviously he was wrong,wasnt he?
Report Fatslogger November 30, 2020 1:29 PM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 6:55AM, Cider wrote:


Wales BANS pubs from selling alcoholic drinks and introduces 6pm CURFEW as it heads for ANOTHER lockdown less than four weeks after its 'firebreak' with infection rate up 31 per cent


It must be true, I read it in the Daily Mail. The Wales data I can see don’t look like a rapid uptick again, although there is a trend that way.

This is a bit like all the Tory MPs grousing about having to come out of lockdown with tougher restrictions than their areas went into it. Well, yes, the lockdown was triggered because it was felt a more radical approach was needed than the tiered one being used before. Nobody said that it would finish and then everything would be back to normal or even nearer normal than before lockdown. That’s just a completely irrational criterion to judge lockdown against. It’s similar in Wales. You use tougher measures to reduce case numbers, as happened in Wales and is happening in England, then you have to maintain numbers steady or ideally still going down slightly through whatever measures are needed from there.

There’s a rational critique of all this to be made around balancing up risks and rewards of tougher measures but as usual, it’s not being made in favour of some complete straw men.

Report Cider November 30, 2020 1:32 PM GMT
Are you trying to claim that parts of the quote aren't true, just because you don't like the source? Which part are you disputing specifically?
Report Cider November 30, 2020 1:34 PM GMT
The thread is about the failed Welsh experiment. Public health is devolved to the Labour administration.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 30, 2020 1:36 PM GMT
Keeping schools open seems
to be a fight they insist upon.

But why not have an extra weeks
holiday over Xmas, to help mitigate
the damage of 5 days madness.
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 1:40 PM GMT
The lockdown was successful, Cider.
Report Cider November 30, 2020 1:42 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 1:46 PM GMT
Cases and deaths are down. The government's proactive approach worked. Recidivism is the problem.
Report Cider November 30, 2020 1:55 PM GMT
Where explicitly are you seeing deaths 'down' (these are deaths with 28 days of a positive test, the most recent may still increase)


28-11-2020    29    2,523
27-11-2020    21    2,494
26-11-2020    28    2,474
25-11-2020    41    2,446
24-11-2020    21    2,406
23-11-2020    9    2,385
22-11-2020    11    2,376
21-11-2020    28    2,365
20-11-2020    31    2,338
19-11-2020    23    2,307
18-11-2020    41    2,284
17-11-2020    34    2,243
16-11-2020    2    2,209
15-11-2020    16    2,207
14-11-2020    20    2,191
13-11-2020    29    2,171
12-11-2020    34    2,142
11-11-2020    45    2,108
10-11-2020    22    2,063
09-11-2020    8    2,041
08-11-2020    19    2,033
07-11-2020    32    2,014
06-11-2020    13    1,982
05-11-2020    30    1,969
04-11-2020    44    1,939
03-11-2020    4    1,895
02-11-2020    3    1,891
01-11-2020    16    1,888
31-10-2020    13    1,872
30-10-2020    11    1,859
29-10-2020    21    1,848
28-10-2020    37    1,827
27-10-2020    7    1,790
26-10-2020    6    1,783
25-10-2020    5    1,777
24-10-2020    16    1,772
23-10-2020    13    1,756
22-10-2020    7    1,743
21-10-2020    14    1,736
20-10-2020    10    1,722
19-10-2020    1    1,712
18-10-2020    3    1,711
17-10-2020    5    1,708
16-10-2020    5    1,703
15-10-2020    10    1,698
14-10-2020    10    1,688
13-10-2020    5    1,678
12-10-2020    4    1,673
11-10-2020    2    1,669
10-10-2020    21    1,667
09-10-2020    2    1,646
08-10-2020    1    1,644
07-10-2020    3    1,643
06-10-2020    10    1,640
05-10-2020    0    1,630
04-10-2020    0    1,630
03-10-2020    5    1,630
02-10-2020    3    1,625
01-10-2020    6    1,622
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 2:03 PM GMT
Graph on here:

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19367602



Look at the number of hotspots in the heads of the valleys as well. Everywhere else is pretty much OK.
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 2:06 PM GMT
Basically the place with the highest concentration of idiots (except me) and unhealthy people.
Report Cider November 30, 2020 2:25 PM GMT
The rolling average peaks at 26 and the latest is 22, and as above is climbing again. So (four) deaths a day, of people mostly over 80. Are you claiming shutting down the nation, millions spent, all the mental health damage, ruined businesses, social lives and well being is justified to save a handful of life years? Plus that is just covid 19 associated deaths, overall deaths may well be unaffected.
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 2:32 PM GMT
I think 22 is lower than 26Crazy
Report dukeofpuke November 30, 2020 2:35 PM GMT
Nanny state gone wrong
Report Cider November 30, 2020 2:37 PM GMT
Yes, I asked the question, you answered so I reviewed the data. I agree that the rolling average deaths with a positive test have fractionally reduced, and are back on the rise.

You however claimed that the lockdown was successful. That essentially means that the benefits outweighed the costs. We have never as a society saved lives at more cost to other lives, certainly not those who are already old and infirm.
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 2:39 PM GMT
It's preferable to let people die and save money?
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 2:41 PM GMT
Maybe if the toryscum funded the NHS properly in Wales, as they are supposed to, we would have bigger and better facilities.
Report the old nanny ;-) November 30, 2020 2:43 PM GMT
How many people who attend pubs have Died of Covid ?  If your Vulnerable you wont be going to the pub , People should be looking after Elderly and Vulnerable relatives , its each families duty to do that , Closing pubs will make little or no difference ,stand by for a massive rise in Sheep Worrying .
Report Cider November 30, 2020 2:47 PM GMT
It's not preferable, it's inevitable. There are not unlimited resources, even in Wales. Part of the decision making process in regard to whether the NHS saves your life is the net gain versus the cost, life years per pound essentially. Some of you people seem to believe that death is forever preventable, and resources are generated out of thin air.
Report the old nanny ;-) November 30, 2020 2:58 PM GMT
MY MRS HAS BEEN WORKING IN A PHARMACY SINCE DAY 1 ,SHE GETS THE BUS IN EVERY DAY , THERE ARE ABOUT 10 people working in the Pharmarcy ,as of yet
not one has come  down with COVID , either that or had it with little effects , now if your going to catch it I would have thought a packed Chemist
would be High on the list of places to do so , Tier 3 area as well . This disease is Like pneumonia it takes out mainly sick and vulnerable People
numbers clicking up daily to add to the fright factor . Its not just her or me there are 10 others working there NONE have had it neither has any of their families .
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 3:04 PM GMT
Cider, you headcase, Drakeford has merely followed the advice of scientists. I think they are better placed to make those decisions than you or me.

Boris is just making it up as he goes alongCrywac
Report dukeofpuke November 30, 2020 3:06 PM GMT
Likewise here with the pubs i go well used to i'm in Leicester the dirty virus ridden city i dont know of any mass outbreaks in the pubs and the people i know havent stopped going some in their 50's 60's 70's.The landlord 25yo and his GF got it but on holiday in Somerset.Another landlord got tested positive and had to shut his pub in Market H arborough but no one in his family got it or any staff or regulars
Report Cider November 30, 2020 3:11 PM GMT
So the scientists said, do a lockdown for 17 days, spend millions, disrupt millions of peoples lives, you might prevent a 100 or so people from dying a short period before the would have died anyway, however more than 100 people might die of something else. When you release lockdown you'll need to do it all over again four weeks later. lol
Report Cider November 30, 2020 3:17 PM GMT
fwiw

Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by area

Total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes. The data are published weekly by the ONS, NRS and NISRA and there is a lag in reporting of at least 11 days because the data are based on death registrations. Only data available for the latest reported date are shown.

Rate per 100,000 population:

Wales    3,230    102.4

England    57,147    101.5
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 3:20 PM GMT
Scientists aren't clairvoyant. They just make best guesses which would also be the best possible advice at any given time. I don't think you can criticise Drakeford for being proactive and following the advice whilst Boris did the opposite and now the lockdown over there is double.
Report the old nanny ;-) November 30, 2020 3:21 PM GMT
I was sitting here for 6 months waiting to Catch it . I would have thought Long odds on the Mrs did then me 

We may still do , but fook me its taking its time .

I have worn a mask since day 1 when out and I do keep my distance , But bar that there is nothing can be done IMVHO

How can pubs and cafes be shut and Kids still attending School ,who will show little or no effects ,its Madness the lot of it .

Surely if there is any Super spreader it will be a kids school .
Report Cider November 30, 2020 3:24 PM GMT
Scientists should be providing opinion, not lobbying for changes in policy.

Boris made the right decision, he lost his bottle after being strong armed unfortunately.
Report Richie_Burnett November 30, 2020 3:43 PM GMT
Cider and the old nanny ;-) - like 2 peas in a podLaugh
Report Cider November 30, 2020 5:09 PM GMT
Personal attacks, typical MO for those losing the argument in this place Grin
Report Fatslogger November 30, 2020 5:32 PM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 7:32AM, Cider wrote:


Are you trying to claim that parts of the quote aren't true, just because you don't like the source? Which part are you disputing specifically?


I was saying what I said in my post. Did you read it? Curiously you fixated on the bit about the Daily Mail, not anything else. The point about the Mail was the rather hysterical tone, although if you want me to critique the article in details, there were plenty of other things wrong with it too.

Report Cider November 30, 2020 5:49 PM GMT
I wasn't quoting the article, you deliberately tried to undermine the quoted sentence by trying to infer it might not be true. Standard tactics from the supercilious on here. Let's with that first, which element of the quote from the DM are you suggesting might not be true?
Report Cider November 30, 2020 5:58 PM GMT
You might be in a good place to set RB straight on this comment, perhaps.

It's preferable to let people die and save money?
Report Fatslogger November 30, 2020 6:11 PM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 11:49AM, Cider wrote:


I wasn't quoting the article, you deliberately tried to undermine the quoted sentence by trying to infer it might not be true. Standard tactics from the supercilious on here. Let's with that first, which element of the quote from the DM are you suggesting might not be true?


I wasn’t quoting the article, says man who quoted an article in a post that included nothing other than a quote from said article. Addressing just the quoted bit of article as follows:

Wales BANS pubs from selling alcoholic drinks and introduces 6pm CURFEW as it heads for ANOTHER lockdown less than four weeks after its 'firebreak' with infection rate up 31 per cent

As I say, the tone was hysterical. Funny how that’s an issue for you when measures are introduced but fine when they’re criticised. Shutting pubs at 6pm isn’t a lockdown or a CURFEW. I don’t know for sure where they get their 31% figure from but it’s not one I think is at all reliable and looks like it’s probably not using a proper smoothed average. Is that enough issues for you from a less than two line excerpt or would you like me to critique the punctuation too? I mean, really, I don’t need to imply that the Mail is a terrible source, I can infer it easily enough by a quick google confirming that it was the Mail.

Report Fatslogger November 30, 2020 6:17 PM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 11:58AM, Cider wrote:


You might be in a good place to set RB straight on this comment, perhaps.  It's preferable to let people die and save money?


Looks like a question rather than a comment, addressed to you not me so not sure what you’re asking me or why. If you want to know whether I think there’s a trade off between resources, including money and lives, yes, I do think that. I imagine so does RB.

Report Cider November 30, 2020 7:55 PM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 12:11PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Nov 30, 2020 --  6:49PM, Cider wrote:I wasn't quoting the article, you deliberately tried to undermine the quoted sentence by trying to infer it might not be true. Standard tactics from the supercilious on here. Let's with that first, which element of the quote from the DM are you suggesting might not be true?I wasn’t quoting the article, says man who quoted an article in a post that included nothing other than a quote from said article. Addressing just the quoted bit of article as follows:Wales BANS pubs from selling alcoholic drinks and introduces 6pm CURFEW as it heads for ANOTHER lockdown less than four weeks after its 'firebreak' with infection rate up 31 per centAs I say, the tone was hysterical. Funny how that’s an issue for you when measures are introduced but fine when they’re criticised. Shutting pubs at 6pm isn’t a lockdown or a CURFEW. I don’t know for sure where they get their 31% figure from but it’s not one I think is at all reliable and looks like it’s probably not using a proper smoothed average. Is that enough issues for you from a less than two line excerpt or would you like me to critique the punctuation too? I mean, really, I don’t need to imply that the Mail is a terrible source, I can infer it easily enough by a quick google confirming that it was the Mail.


Welsh pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes will be subject to a 6pm curfew and banned from serving alcohol from 4 December.

.https://www.thecaterer.com/news/welsh-pubs-restaurants-alcohol-ban-6pm-closure-coronavirus

Wales bans alcohol from pubs and restaurants, and adds 6pm curfew under new Covid restrictions

.https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/food-and-drink/wales-ban-alcohol-pubs-restaurants-6pm-curfew-new-covid-restrictions-friday-777188

COVID-19: Welsh pubs and restaurants banned from selling alcohol and face 6pm curfew

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-welsh-pubs-and-restaurants-banned-from-selling-alcohol-and-must-close-at-6pm-12147111

Report Cider November 30, 2020 8:01 PM GMT
Lockdown is a colloquial term for onerous restrictions, affecting the ability to trade and socialise. Wales had a 17 day 'lockdown', unwound the onerous restrictions and are reintroducing most of them on Friday. Effectively moving the nation back into lockdown.
Report mafeking November 30, 2020 8:13 PM GMT
it's certainly likely to be a permanent lockdown for many welsh businesses
Report Fatslogger November 30, 2020 9:40 PM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 2:01PM, Cider wrote:


Lockdown is a colloquial term for onerous restrictions, affecting the ability to trade and socialise. Wales had a 17 day 'lockdown', unwound the onerous restrictions and are reintroducing most of them on Friday. Effectively moving the nation back into lockdown.


The firebreak itself wasn’t a lockdown, let alone the reintroduction of partial measures from that period. A lockdown is a far fuller group of measures, as per the lockdown you’ll remember from early pandemic and indeed now in England. As I say, it’s hysteria but I’ll give you that and the CURFEW are semantics.

Interesting that as a numbers man you don’t seem keen to defend their numbers. Which is particularly funny as it’s obvious from my original post about the Mail quote that seemed to confuse you so much, that was the bit I was most sceptical about.

Report Richie_Burnett December 1, 2020 6:42 AM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 11:09AM, Cider wrote:


Personal attacks, typical MO for those losing the argument in this place


Your warped worldview is worthy of derision, Cider.

Report Cider December 1, 2020 6:37 PM GMT

Nov 30, 2020 -- 3:40PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Nov 30, 2020 --  9:01PM, Cider wrote:Lockdown is a colloquial term for onerous restrictions, affecting the ability to trade and socialise. Wales had a 17 day 'lockdown', unwound the onerous restrictions and are reintroducing most of them on Friday. Effectively moving the nation back into lockdown.The firebreak itself wasn’t a lockdown, let alone the reintroduction of partial measures from that period. A lockdown is a far fuller group of measures, as per the lockdown you’ll remember from early pandemic and indeed now in England. As I say, it’s hysteria but I’ll give you that and the CURFEW are semantics. Interesting that as a numbers man you don’t seem keen to defend their numbers. Which is particularly funny as it’s obvious from my original post about the Mail quote that seemed to confuse you so much, that was the bit I was most sceptical about.


I'm actually doing other things like working, and betting in my second job! That's exactly it, semantics. There is no single agreed definition of what a lockdown is. What you've tried to do in my view is deflect away from the Welsh administration rolling back on the measures they released only a month ago. Which can only be considered a failure in my book, whatever the sympathetic treatment they will receive from political friends in the media and on here.

More to the actual point at hand. ONS:

In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased from 190 deaths (Week 46) to 223 deaths (Week 47), while the total number of deaths in Week 47 was 195 deaths higher than the five-year average.

Week 47 ended 20/11, which is 28 days after the 'firebreak' lockdown started.

To put that into perspective, 'lockdown' began 23/03 in England and deaths peaked 09/04, 12 days after the 'lockdown' was initiated.

Report Cider December 1, 2020 7:11 PM GMT
The number of deaths registered was above the five-year average in all English regions and Wales
Number of deaths in Wales and regions in England, registered week ending 20 November 2020
Region name    deaths    Five-year average    Difference    Percentage above average
Yorkshire and     1,441    1,020    421    41.3
North West    1,935    1,398    537    38.4
Wales            848    653    195    29.9
West Midlands    1,385    1,076    309    28.7
North East    691    541    150    27.7
East Midlands    1,105    874    231    26.4
London            1,086    983    103    10.5
South East    1,687    1,579    108    6.8
East            1,186    1,112    74    6.7
South West    1,159    1,118    41    3.7
Report Cider December 1, 2020 7:13 PM GMT
^ Wales has the third highest excess death increase by percentage when compared to the regions of England (29.9%).
Report Fatslogger December 1, 2020 11:22 PM GMT
Cider-

I'm actually doing other things like working, and betting in my second job! That's exactly it, semantics. There is no single agreed definition of what a lockdown is. What you've tried to do in my view is deflect away from the Welsh administration rolling back on the measures they released only a month ago. Which can only be considered a failure in my book, whatever the sympathetic treatment they will receive from political friends in the media and on here.

More to the actual point at hand. ONS:

In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased from 190 deaths (Week 46) to 223 deaths (Week 47), while the total number of deaths in Week 47 was 195 deaths higher than the five-year average.

Week 47 ended 20/11, which is 28 days after the 'firebreak' lockdown started.

To put that into perspective, 'lockdown' began 23/03 in England and deaths peaked 09/04, 12 days after the 'lockdown' was initiated.


You were so busy that you were very keen to indulge in a debate about semantics and totally ignore the issues with the dodgy stats in the Mail? The irony is, you accused me of sly and dishonest criticism of your quote but still haven’t even acknowledged my repeated mentions of their numbers. Funny how you’re a numbers man except when you get support in your views from bad stats.

Talking of bad stats, you do know that deaths registered from Covid follow on around a month after infection? You should, as it’s been pointed out to you often enough.

As for the overall success of the firebreak in Wales, it followed the pattern of lots of similar efforts: worked reasonably well, ended quite soon, relaxed too far, too quickly, measures reimposed. Changing the approach dramatically every few weeks is bad policy, certainly health wise, probably economically too. That was the thing Sweden got right, along with leaving young children in nursery and school. The former was a good call, the latter a lucky guess.
Report Fatslogger December 1, 2020 11:25 PM GMT
Oh and the high deaths in Wales you discuss, caused by their high infection rates prior to the firebreak, rather demonstrate the need for it. Although I can’t quite work out whether you think that it’s all a massive overreaction to a small number of deaths or an unsuccessful policy seeing large numbers of deaths.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- December 2, 2020 12:01 AM GMT
Ft report Sweden have changed policy
and now ask parents who test positive
to keep kids off school
Report Cider December 2, 2020 9:17 AM GMT
I knew someone would come up with that claim Fatslogger, which is why I pointed out that the ONS stats ended 28 days after the Welsh 'lockdown' started. When should we see the deaths falling significantly iyo?

I don't think you answered my original OP question, what would make the 'firebreak lockdown' an overall success, ie net beneficial? Judging by your last para, I feel like you might be agreeing with me that it wasn't. Part of the reason why I predicted it wouldn't be, was that any covid gains would be short lived, and they would be having to reintroduce restrictions...voila. We have to wonder why a reasonably intelligent, numerate person who works in an unrelated field could work that out on their own in a few hours, and the heavily resourced Welsh administration along with the so called experts seemingly could, or did not, or worse still, knew and did it any way. I could have had egg on my face by predicting this ahead of time, but I was pretty confident I would be right.

In regard to deaths, as with so many things related to this topic, it's very difficult to prove without doubt. However, in my view there are at least as many people dying because of the hysteria, interventions and withdrawal of usual medical services as dying as a direct result of contracting the virus. I compared Wales to English regions, as surely even you should agree that the 'firebreak' happened earlier in Wales so the impact of lockdown 2 should have been reflected on that table. We need to be grown ups a society, and make sensible decisions that concede there is a new virus and some vulnerable people who catch it are inevitably going to die. We should not be taking actions that will kill other, often younger people, just to reduce the covid related deaths which we have all bee conditioned to focus on.
Report peckerdunne December 2, 2020 11:52 AM GMT
You weren't making any predictions Cider, the knowledge and stats for short lockdown/firebreaks were already known to be no more than a holding position that would not buck the trend and result in declining numbers overall, but only serve to slow the rate.I have already told you this from the outset, no predictions or miracle deductions made in just a few hours.

And your view, just a view, that at least as many die from the hysteria as the disease, misses the point that would only be the case without restrictions in place, otherwise the deaths would be obviously higher and your view would be null and void,which it is.
Report Fatslogger December 2, 2020 1:12 PM GMT
Cider -

I knew someone would come up with that claim Fatslogger, which is why I pointed out that the ONS stats ended 28 days after the Welsh 'lockdown' started. When should we see the deaths falling significantly iyo?

Problem is it’s really complicated. The English death numbers probably reflect that case numbers were at or near peak before lockdown started. That wasn’t true for Wales at the point of going in to the firebreak, where cases were still trending up quite steeply, so you’d expect death stats to have a damped lag around a month behind case numbers, which carried on going up from the start of the firebreak and peaked around end Nov, then fell fairly steeply. That’s using the Covid symptoms app, which has numbers pretty static since the firebreak ended, although obviously it’s only one tool to look at the numbers. Anyway, deaths are likely to be drop significantly from a bit before a month after the firebreak ended then come back up, perhaps, although the time relationship isn’t as simple as that makes it sound and as I say, the Covid symptoms app actually has cases fairly static, so predicting deaths will be too.


I don't think you answered my original OP question, what would make the 'firebreak lockdown' an overall success, ie net beneficial? Judging by your last para, I feel like you might be agreeing with me that it wasn't. Part of the reason why I predicted it wouldn't be, was that any covid gains would be short lived, and they would be having to reintroduce restrictions...voila. We have to wonder why a reasonably intelligent, numerate person who works in an unrelated field could work that out on their own in a few hours, and the heavily resourced Welsh administration along with the so called experts seemingly could, or did not, or worse still, knew and did it any way. I could have had egg on my face by predicting this ahead of time, but I was pretty confident I would be right.

This is a hard question and as I didn’t engage with this thread initially, it’s arguably a bit unfair to construct an answer now. The fundamental questions for the sudden introduction of stronger measures (lockdowns, if you will, although they’re all a bit different), are along the lines of:

1. Must we do this now to avoid dramatic health consequences, especially overwhelming health care?
2. How hard does it need to be?
3. How long for?
4. How much changes when we emerge?

It’s easy to get all these wrong but I think 4. is especially hard. We got this right, somewhat against my expectations, after the initial lockdown but we then progressively got it more and more wrong, with the understandable desire to reopen things and got it wrong in spades when we had schools and universities returning at the same time as other measures also relaxed.

Answering these questions for Wales, I think they could have waited and tried something less restrictive but they probably got 1 and 2. right. I think they were optimistic with 3. given their approach to 4.  You can get away with something brief and tough if you remain at least fairly tough at the end. The notion that 2 weeks will settle things down then you can, relatively speaking, at least, let rip again is obviously wrong.


In regard to deaths, as with so many things related to this topic, it's very difficult to prove without doubt. However, in my view there are at least as many people dying because of the hysteria, interventions and withdrawal of usual medical services as dying as a direct result of contracting the virus. I compared Wales to English regions, as surely even you should agree that the 'firebreak' happened earlier in Wales so the impact of lockdown 2 should have been reflected on that table. We need to be grown ups a society, and make sensible decisions that concede there is a new virus and some vulnerable people who catch it are inevitably going to die. We should not be taking actions that will kill other, often younger people, just to reduce the covid related deaths which we have all bee conditioned to focus on.

Your opinion doesn’t count for much if you think the withdrawal of usual medical services is a) happening much at all right now and b) in so far as it is, isn’t a direct result of not controlling the virus in the population. It is true that GPs and hospitals are being more careful around face to face consultations but this isn’t preventing work happening, except in scenarios where either health care is overwhelmed (this has hardly happened all pandemic, in fact, although we were close in some places at times) or where the risks of face to face work have outweighed their potential benefits.

I’m very sceptical that there is evidence that we are taking actions that are killing other, often younger people, certainly in health policy. It’s far, far harder to determine this for economic impacts, for all sorts of reasons, including that not controlling the virus would have its own massive economic consequences that people of a libertarian bent are extremely reluctant to discuss. Of course, this doesn’t mean that there isn’t a balance of risk.
Report Cider December 3, 2020 5:43 PM GMT
The problem is Fatslogger, and I appreciate that you've laid out 1 - 4, is that lockdown comes at unbelievable, almost immeasurable cost. Not just in financial terms, which is obviously astronomical, and the hundreds of things I could lay out, but credibility of politicians and scientists, and healthcare in general. Trust in them is simply ebbing away. There comes a point where people might not be a defaulted to question things like me realise they are being consistently lied to.

The evidence of people being killed by 'lockdown' and the associated hysteria is the vast increase in the number of people dying at home, on average. Mostly they will be people either too scared, or don't want to be a burden. Plus of course the people that are ill, still alive, but not coming forward. Then there's palpably going to be people affected by the pull back of regular screening and elective surgery, along with suicides and the reduction in GDP.

On the covid dashboard, deaths within 60 days of a positive test in England peaked on the 21st Nov. Lockdown started 5th Nov, 16 days before. Unfortunately the same graph is not there for Wales.
Report Fatslogger December 3, 2020 9:16 PM GMT
Again, you aren’t discussing the counterfactual at all. I’m more than happy to discuss the effects of various measures and the benefits versus costs but the position that Wales, in this example, could have carried on with steeply rising case numbers without at least introducing some additional restrictions and without major economic as well as health harm from an unchecked pandemic if it didn’t is simply wrong.

I don’t think the deaths at home results are clear. Your interpretation is one way of looking at them and may have some truth to it. That people have gone home to die from terminal illness rather than be in hospital or care homes is another.

For about the thousandth time, if your concern is what the NHS is able to provide, your arguments should be in favour of very strict pandemic control measures. This is another issue you keep refusing to address meaningfully.
Report Fatslogger December 3, 2020 9:18 PM GMT
There aren’t actually any suicide data out yet, so that’s complete speculation.
Report Cider December 7, 2020 5:41 PM GMT
I feel you're missing the point. I have never disagreed that harsh lockdowns will reduce positive covid deaths. Of course they will. What nobody has demonstrated is that the interventions have a net overall gain. We will be feeling the pain of this madness for decades to come.

More people are dying at home, thousands, and the death rates of most diseases has dropped dramatically. So observers don't need to be Einstein to confidently conclude they are some of the collateral damage, who otherwise would not have died.

The suicides won't come until the full economic pain has played out. Obviously most of the damage is being masked currently by the suspension of evictions and short term life support like furlough.

Anyhow, Wales appears to be recording record infection rates. Who could have predicted that!
Report Fatslogger December 7, 2020 6:54 PM GMT
You definitely sound like you’re approaching an extremely difficult to answer question with an open mind and aren’t still ducking the counterfactual of what effect worse virus control would have on the economy. I’m not sure which point I’m missing, to be honest.

You’re over simplifying the home deaths data. I’ve heard various explanations and I don’t know which is true yet. It’s a large perturbation in a complex system. I’ll take a look at what the ONS says in a bit more detail at some point but your confidence in a simple story is likely to be misplaced.

On suicide, again you seem very confident of a simple explanation for something that’s a) complex and b) not happened yet and could, if you were right, be at least ameliorated and probably prevented by appropriate policies.
Report Cider December 8, 2020 3:49 PM GMT
Fatslogger, you're missing the point that the lockdowns have deeper long term health harms than good. Disregarding all of the associated negative ramifications. Certainly the stupid 'circuit breaker'.

No need to listen to me, how about a bona fide expert.

UK cases still slowly dropping today - but Wales now has 3-4 times the rate of new cases of the rest of the country. Looks like the experiment of short lockdowns and releases are a disaster to be avoided. We now need steady policies and advice over the next 3 months - stay ahead!


.https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1336258751947546624
Report Cider December 8, 2020 3:58 PM GMT
It CANNOT be forgotten that we would have been in this position had Boris followed SAGE advice.
Report Mexico December 8, 2020 5:03 PM GMT
Cider

Totally agree that Boris has a lot to answer for regarding ignoring scientific advice on a few occasions.

Regarding the short lockdown & release .....

Won't the success/ failure depend on the type of release. The actual 2 week Wales lockdown seems to of had similar effectiveness as England 4 week of semi-lockdown. I can't see this tier 2/3 system working especially with a 5 day Christmas party approaching.
The police just aren't enforcing any rules - 4 arrests at Harrod's on Saturday, 150 people at student party in Nottingham.
Report nineteen points December 8, 2020 5:20 PM GMT
10 sky presenters at a restaurant!

is this a christmas song?
Report Cider December 8, 2020 5:50 PM GMT
Who determined how the lockdown was released in Wales, Mexico?

Patently there is a legislated break at Xmas as there would be mass ignoring of guidance and rules anyway. As most people surely know that the threat of this virus has been vastly exaggerated.
Report Fatslogger December 8, 2020 6:05 PM GMT

Dec 8, 2020 -- 9:49AM, Cider wrote:


Fatslogger, you're missing the point that the lockdowns have deeper long term health harms than good. Disregarding all of the associated negative ramifications. Certainly the stupid 'circuit breaker'.No need to listen to me, how about a bona fide expert. UK cases still slowly dropping today - but Wales now has 3-4 times the rate of new cases of the rest of the country. Looks like the experiment of short lockdowns and releases are a disaster to be avoided. We now need steady policies and advice over the next 3 months - stay ahead!.https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1336258751947546624


I’m missing the point that the thing you keep saying about lockdowns having their own huge health harms is true, even though you can’t support it with any convincing evidence? Okay.

I’ve never said I thought the 2 week Welsh circuit breaker was a good idea either at all, or especially on its own, without sensible further measures on emerging from it. You are wrestling a straw man. I think you’ll find that I’ve been saying for months that the one thing we really ought to have regarded as a success in Sweden (I imagine this is already getting your heart racing), is that they didn’t keep changing policy radically and stuck with pretty strict arrangements. They had plenty of advantages to support this and they’ve still had to ramp up measures again more recently, which they took too long to do but the avoidance of a boom and bust approach was definitely right.

On the broader question of how you deal with steep increases in cases, that Wales was facing pre the circuit breaker and Sweden more recently, it’s very difficult, isn’t it? A slow increase in measures runs the risk of not doing enough. A more dramatic approach causes public resistance, confusion and runs the real risk of over relaxation, either in the measures or the way the public behaves, once the period of stricter measures lapses.

The truth is probably that if you’re doing it this way, you’ve already got it wrong.

Report Mexico December 8, 2020 7:13 PM GMT
Cider

Guess it is the Weldh government (AMs) who decided what restrictions to have in place after the 2 week lockdown.

Looking like leaders still haven't got the message about what social distancing me ants & what enforcement is required.

I fully expect yet another lockdown in January in both England & Wales .  There are some parts of the country where cases are very high yet nothing will happen for another week & then will have a 5 day break from restrictions + already been told police won't prevent Christmas gatherings in private houses of 4/5 households.

At this rate will be sometime in March/April before get any sort of "normal " back. Social distancing isn't a complicated policy to try, yet Labour & Torys don't want to try it out.
Report Cider December 17, 2020 2:19 PM GMT
Going great this

MORE than 3,000 new cases of coronavirus in Gwent have been confirmed today - among almost 11,500 across Wales - after Public Health Wales figures were updated to include those that have gone unreported amid recent data system issues.

The updated figures reveal the full and deeply worrying extent to which coronavirus has continued to spread in almost all of Wales during December.

The cases have not been formally reported until today because planned maintenance of the NHS Welsh Laboratory Information Management System last week - when service upgrades took place - had led to what Public Health Wales called "significant under-reporting of Lighthouse Laboratory testing".



Wales poised to go back into full lockdown for the third time from December 28, although non-essential retailers will be closed from Christmas Eve, the Welsh Government has announced.

First Minister Mark Drakeford said a “sustained rise in coronavirus” meant that the country would have to move into its highest level of restrictions.
Report Cider January 18, 2021 3:27 PM GMT
Another experiment, keeping vaccines in the freezer Cry
Report Richie_Burnett April 2, 2021 12:36 PM BST
OP wac.

Lowest case rate of home nations for over 2 months
First to lift travel restrictions
First to offer vaccine to all over 50s
First to offer vaccine to all with long term health conditions

#ymlaen
Report jucel69 April 2, 2021 1:40 PM BST

Apr 2, 2021 -- 6:36AM, Richie_Burnett wrote:


OP wac.Lowest case rate of home nations for over 2 monthsFirst to lift travel restrictionsFirst to offer vaccine to all over 50sFirst to offer vaccine to all with long term health conditions#ymlaen


OMG twitchy is still here.
Same old **** haha

Report Richie_Burnett April 4, 2021 3:20 AM BST
How does this islamophobic recidivist keep getting back on here? He must have been banned about 10 timesCrazy
Report Cider April 4, 2021 6:48 AM BST
Welcome back Richie. You've been in self isolation for a long time!

Don't confuse politicking with actual achievement.

Take a look at figure 4 in section 4 of this link below, and tell us what your conclusions are.

.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/01april2021
Report Richie_Burnett May 17, 2021 10:18 AM BST

Apr 2, 2021 -- 7:40AM, jucel69 wrote:


Apr  2, 2021 -- 11:36AM, Richie_Burnett wrote:OP wac.Lowest case rate of home nations for over 2 monthsFirst to lift travel restrictionsFirst to offer vaccine to all over 50sFirst to offer vaccine to all with long term health conditions#ymlaenOMG twitchy is still here.Same old **** haha


Banned again you ****?CryLaugh

Report Richie_Burnett May 17, 2021 10:19 AM BST
Wales has now given the first jab to 80% of its adult population which is some way ahead of England (68%)Cry, Scotland (67%) and Northern Ireland (68%).

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/2-million-vaccines-jab-wales-20598439

Report Cider May 17, 2021 2:51 PM BST
In case you've not noticed, vax distribution is now entirely political, to fit in with the 'road map'. England distributed it as fast as possible when it actually could realistically save lives, and has since tugged the reins as it was going too well. Up to Indian variant time of course, now it will accelerate again.
Report Richie_Burnett May 28, 2021 1:26 AM BST
Poor old Cider (blocked) Dad, I've got it wrong againCryCry

Wales had caught up with England and Scotland by early February, and since 7 April it has been ahead of all the other UK nations.

A higher proportion of Wales' population has had a dose of a Covid vaccine than any other country with more than a million people.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
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