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lapsy pa
12 Oct 20 21:12
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Date Joined: 29 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 9,090 | Blogger: lapsy pa's blog
A short circuit breaker lockdown

A ban on household mixing

All bars and restaurants should close

An urgent re-imposition of a fresh package of measures.

Clearly hasn't been followed from 3 weeks ago.
Pause Switch to Standard View Sage meeting 21st Sept "advice"
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Report thegiggilo October 12, 2020 9:29 PM BST
The tories have done it again..who could possibly have guessed..

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1315742632476323843
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 9:36 PM BST
Sage dont run the country though. Its easy for them to suggest over the top restrictions without looking at the overall picture.
Report lapsy pa October 12, 2020 9:45 PM BST
Will the "advice" be proven right Dot? I think it will, 3 weeks is a long time with this and the obvious the earlier you do something the better,likely it can be way more "costly" in the long run imo.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 10:16 PM BST
Were these measures supposed to be National. If so that would be ridiculous.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 10:22 PM BST
As far as I can see a short circuit breaker lockdown will just delay things a bit and a month after we open up again these people will demand another. They dont care about livelyhoods at all. They just have a narrow view on covid case numbers. If only the world was that simple.
Report lapsy pa October 12, 2020 10:23 PM BST
They would have been beautiful if national, North bad,South rising, might even have been a semi proper Christmas, instead leave it take hold in the height of flu season,months now.

I am speaking on a pure covid theme there,but economy wise it wouldn't surprise me if it worked out better.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 10:28 PM BST
So you think shutting down pubs over huge areas of the country where there are minimal amounts of covid makes sense?
Report eyeball October 12, 2020 10:32 PM BST
The same people will die or suffer extreme morbidity . The measures will just slow the death or infection rates .
Report lapsy pa October 12, 2020 10:35 PM BST
Yes,even on Sept 21st there wasn't even really "minimal" areas,they were starting to rise.
The timing with schools,universities, the start of flu season,pubs could have been sacrificed if "they"" were serious about the rest.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 10:38 PM BST
Theres plenty of minimal areas in rural England. You cant take away peoples jobs/businesses for no good reason. Focus restrictions where theres plenty of cases if you do anything but leave the rest of us out of it.
Report lapsy pa October 12, 2020 10:43 PM BST
Do you think people will go off out gallivanting to the pub when rates are very high?

Even the young will say sod that.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 10:46 PM BST
But rates arent high in so many areas but why would anyone young worry either way since theres zero risk to them.

I just cant see any logic in ruining peoples lives in areas with little covid. It seems vindictive to me and will create more bad feeling than we already have in this country over Brexit.
Report lapsy pa October 12, 2020 10:52 PM BST
I understand what you mean and the whole thing is very sad but as sure as night follows day what is happening in the North will be in the South in a few weeks.

A few far East countries and New Zealand are on top of it (hopefully stays that way) China with it's population seems to be now,very draconian and can't see that working but this policy isn't going to work either.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 11:03 PM BST
I note SAGE say multiple circuit breakers could be needed. This is just unsustainable. We just need to face up to the reality that whatever happens people are going to die instead of pretending we can avoid it.
We have to have an economy left after this is over. This remains an illness that only affects a tiny minority and we cannot throw away everyone elses future over it.
Im sensing that the time for restrictions is running out anyway. Several people I know who were totally opposite to my view 4 or 5 months ago are now saying we cant go on with all this. Maybe one more short lockdown is possible but after that its over as people just wont put up with it. Xmas is likely to be that cut off at a guess.
Report sofiakenny October 12, 2020 11:04 PM BST
yup lapsy..there are areas where infection rates are quite low but todays fudged mess will see the virus spread fairly rapidly..Whitty has admitted todays measures are little better than useless...gonna be a long hard winter.
Report lapsy pa October 12, 2020 11:15 PM BST
Dublin put some measures (Level 3) including indoor pub closures a few weeks ago,v early but it just MAY have arrested it,(rest of Ireland looking terrible).
Their scientists wanted a complete lockdown as well as could see the way it is going.
I don't think a lockdown is the answer as well as it is short term plaster but the squashing of the sombero still applies.
If everyone thought the same problem solved, we would stay in the cupboard under the stairs for 3 weeks but we are all different and not together.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 11:23 PM BST
We need to know how close a vaccine really is. If the answer is certainly only 3 months you can justify some restrictions and play for time. If it isnt then theres zero point in delaying what is inevitable.
Ultimately though whether people like it or not enough people have no interest in obeying rules a lot of which are plainly mad and that makes lockdowns impossible.
I was out lunchtime and this nonsense about mask wearing in pubs until you get to your table and then when you leave is hilarious. I was about 6 feet from the door and they still asked me to put a mask on when i got up to leave. Needless to say I politely declined.
Report lapsy pa October 12, 2020 11:35 PM BST
Anyway late for me Dotch,with Eyeball and Sofiakenny we might try another go at solving it tomorrow.

Suppose i'm wasting my time saying give the pub a break for a while but give it a think.
Report Dotchinite October 12, 2020 11:38 PM BST
Goodnight lapsy. Take care. Hope you have plenty of beer in the cupboard under the stairs. see you in three weeks.
Report shiny new shoes please October 12, 2020 11:52 PM BST
The seasonal flu vaccine (flu jab) protects against 4 strains of flu virus. These are the strains most likely to be circulating this flu season.



You need to get a new vaccine every Autumn. This is because the strains of the flu virus change.

Some people are more at risk of getting complications if they catch flu.

You can get the flu vaccine if you:

are 65 years of age and over
are pregnant
are a child aged 2 to 12 years (new for 2020/2021)
are an adult or child aged 6 months or older with a long-term health condition like
chronic heart disease, including acute coronary syndrome
chronic liver disease
chronic renal failure
chronic respiratory disease, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cystic fibrosis, moderate or severe asthma or bronchopulmonary dysplasia
chronic neurological disease including multiple sclerosis, hereditary and degenerative disorders of the central nervous system
diabetes mellitus
haemoglobinopathies
morbid obesity i.e. body mass index (BMI) over 40
immunosuppression due to disease or treatment (including treatment for cancer)
are a child with a moderate to severe neurodevelopmental disorder such as cerebral palsy
were born with Down syndrome
live in a nursing home or other long-term care facility
Some people should get the vaccine to protect themselves, their families and those they care for.

These include those who:

work in healthcare
are a carer or live with someone who is at risk of flu because of a long-term health condition
are a carer or live with someone who has Down syndrome
People who are in regular contact with pigs, poultry or waterfowl should get the flu vaccine.


your GP
a local pharmacy
an occupational health department or peer vaccinator if you work in healthcare
How the flu vaccine works


The flu vaccine starts to work within 2 weeks.

You need to have the flu vaccine every year. This is because the antibodies that protect you decline over time. Flu strains can also change from year to year.

It will not stop all flu viruses and the level of protection may vary. So it's not a 100% effective and you may still get flu.

Flu vaccines usually reduce the risk of infection by 40-60%.

Flu vaccines also reduce:

the severity of illness
complications from influenza
flu-related hospitalisations
admissions to critical care units
Flu vaccines have been given to millions of people worldwide for over 60 years, including pregnant women. Reactions to the vaccine are generally mild.

There is no aluminium, thiomersal, mercury, gelatin or porcine gelatin in the Quadrivalent Inactivated Influneza vaccine used in the 2020/2021 campaign.

There are very small amounts of gelatin/porcine gelatin in the Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (Fluenz) for children aged 2-12 years old. Gelatin is used as a stabiliser and is different from gelatin found in food as it is processed and broken down into small fragments.


Any harmful effects should be reported

Flu vaccine side effects
You may have a mild fever and aching muscles for a couple of days after having the vaccine. Your arm may also be a bit sore where you got the injection.

Serious side effects of the flu vaccine are rare.

When you should not get the flu vaccine
You should not get the flu vaccine if you:

have had a severe allergic (anaphylaxis) reaction to a previous flu vaccine or any part of the vaccine.
are taking medicines called combination checkpoint inhibitors, for example, ipilimumab plus nivolumab
are ill with a temperature greater than 38 degrees Celsius - you should wait until you are well before getting the vaccine.
If you have an egg allergy, you should talk to your GP about getting the vaccine.
The 2020 / 2021 flu vaccine
This year's seasonal flu vaccine contains protection against 4 strains of flu virus. These are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the strains most likely to be circulating this season.

The four strains are:

an A/Guangdong-Maonan/SWL1536/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus
an A/Hong Kong/2671/2019 (H3N2)-like virus
a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus
a B/Phuket/3073/2013 (B/Yamagata lineage)-like virus

I'm not high risk so I'll pass on whatever there making.
Report mafeking October 13, 2020 12:04 AM BST
you just watch sturgeon's so called circuit breaker of 16 days turn into a lot longer than that

no evidence whatsoever lockdowns bring down the rate quickly. once you close the pubs again a hell of a lot of them won't be reopening a 2nd time
Report lapsy pa October 13, 2020 10:02 AM BST
I see you gave that suggestion the careful consideration of just over a minute Dotchinite!

The under the cupboard stairs tactic would require everyone else to do the same,NHPET (Ireland) are imploring people to cut contacts,i get that and something everyone can do to slow it at least,not the ultimate solution but a tempory stopgap.

Was there ever a "lockdown" Mafeking? Shops,workplaces,public transport all went ahead,the country was running though reduced.Restrictions a better phrase imo,tighter/looser, the looser ones an open invitation for covid due to humanities traits of being naturally social.Loosening them and a merry go round of tighter ones ad infinitum?
IF pubs are responible for a large part of rising cases should they be open? Are other things more important?
Report lapsy pa October 13, 2020 4:56 PM BST
Less than a day and Leeds traders are saying it is their worst week ever Dotchinite,just because of the number of cases,you see while the buinesses are open now,they can't survive either.
Report nineteen points October 13, 2020 5:07 PM BST
pa,the winter weather,as it always does will see footfall drop everywhere.as for govt saying everywhere being opened up.not relly true,with new rules most place are operating around 25 to 50% capacity at best so that for a start hits there ability to make ends meet.standards will slip as the pennies are pinched so overall it will be another race to the bottom.tory motto.
Report Dotchinite October 13, 2020 5:15 PM BST
Oh well lapsy. Lets all give up and call it a day.
Report Dr Crippen October 13, 2020 5:48 PM BST
SAGE aren't all lefties are they?

Lefties would delight in seeing the country bankrupt, and social discontent bringing down the government.

I'm sure that's why lefties keep calling for the most damaging economic measures.
Report Dr Crippen October 13, 2020 5:57 PM BST
Little Khan calling for lockdown.
Killer Starmer calling for a lockdown.
Andy Burnham, he wants one as well. Yet last week he was arguing against the measures, citing the damage to business.
He's all over the place, the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

And why do all these prominent Labour politicians have a wild look about them?
Report lapsy pa October 13, 2020 5:57 PM BST
Lefties aren't following the complete circus of the tory party with your blind faith
Report sofiakenny October 13, 2020 6:01 PM BST
Bojo the dandruff laden slob makes Michael Foote look like Beau Brummel...does not care a jot.
Report winningthought October 13, 2020 6:16 PM BST
Lefties would delight in seeing the country bankrupt, and social discontent bringing down the government.

The leftest Tory Government would delight in seeing the country bankrupt, and social discontent bringing down the British people.

There, fixed for ya Wink
Report winningthought October 13, 2020 6:22 PM BST
Like its the British peoples fault there is social discontentment Laugh
Like the British people are responsible for Government spending and being of the verge of bankruptcy Laugh

Crips seems to think a bunch of Socialist have been in power for the last 10 years. Oh wait! They have!
Report sofiakenny October 13, 2020 6:37 PM BST
Refund 12 billion for trace and track con?...12 billion for an excel spreadsheet!!...
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 13, 2020 6:39 PM BST
An out of date excel spreadsheet
Report lapsy pa October 13, 2020 6:42 PM BST
12 billion? heart to God.
Report nineteen points October 13, 2020 6:45 PM BST
the most worrying thing is how much more they will be given
Report 1st time poster October 13, 2020 7:01 PM BST
there were large parts of the country with no covid hospital patients when we went in to 1st lockdown because of london cases
Report lapsy pa October 13, 2020 7:04 PM BST
CH4 news starts with all the head tories empathically calling for"we must follow the science"

I can't keep up with the lies.
Report nineteen points October 13, 2020 7:06 PM BST
it really is so annoying pa.and frightening to be lied to so easily.
Report thegiggilo October 13, 2020 7:08 PM BST
128 deaths 17,000 cases sage told them to lockdown three weeks ago,we cut off at 28 daus god knows what the real figures are and they just repeated wat they dod the first time,with crazy regulations now that are going to do zilch,thoiusands they have killed needlessly,these fcukers should be in jail..
Report nineteen points October 13, 2020 7:11 PM BST
well i keep saying this and keep getting vilified but here goes again.

more lockdowns,more masks,more cases.

anybody think it might be worth a try going the other way?
Report lapsy pa October 13, 2020 7:15 PM BST
No 19, people will "retreat" anyway,they  will stay inside,low cases imo and go your way then
Report winningthought October 13, 2020 8:10 PM BST
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/13239-court-to-look-into-uk-government-s-concealed-covid-19-spending

This appears to be more than just an isolated incident, as reported by OpenDemocracy, which discovered last Friday that a Conservative Party councillor, Steve Dechan, received a £156 million ($203.8m) no-bid contract to import PPE from China, despite the fact that his small company was unprofitable.


Are we sure the Conservative Party isn't the Communist Party?
Report Dr Crippen October 13, 2020 8:46 PM BST
Unprofitable?

Not now it isn't.
Report lapsy pa October 21, 2020 6:15 PM BST
1 month on and that advice looking more sound.
Report peckerdunne October 21, 2020 6:46 PM BST
it's like hanging on to the edge of a cliff with your finger tips
Report lapsy pa October 21, 2020 6:55 PM BST
Them measures would probably have taken the sting out of the North in particular,implemented now when cases have gone very high.
I think the goverment is waving the white flag tbh.
Report lapsy pa October 30, 2020 6:23 PM GMT
SAGE minutes from the 14th of OCT say virus spreading faster than worst case scenario.

Everything way higher than was hoped so early in the "winter".

Things looking rotten imo.
Report lapsy pa October 30, 2020 6:31 PM GMT
The line of Tier 3 "is unlikely to get the R below 1" is underlining goverment policy.
Report jollyswagman October 30, 2020 6:39 PM GMT
numbers look like they may have peaked at 20-25 thousand cases a day pa???
Report peckerdunne October 30, 2020 6:43 PM GMT
I very much doubt that Jolly,when the more densely populated south is only beginning it's curve.
Report lapsy pa October 30, 2020 6:46 PM GMT
Hello JS, yes they seemed to have been steady at av 22k for a while,the rise imo will come in the South soon,happening as Kent etc doubling in a week and if the same happens as in the North which is likely. We now know the real figure is up to 100k a day untested
Report Fatslogger October 30, 2020 7:27 PM GMT
I've posted elsewhere that I'd be somewhat hopeful we're near peak cases between measures taken and infections being so high there will be some increase in immunity but don't think we'll see anything like a rapid fall and obviously it will vary a lot by area.  The worry is that hospitalisations are a week or two behind infections and deaths nearly a month. So even if we're at peak now, which we probably aren't quite, we've still got a lot of trouble to come, especially when you bear in mind that a slow fall will see people continuing to get sick in pretty large numbers for months to come.
Report mafeking October 30, 2020 7:29 PM GMT
sage's latest doomsday scenario has got us down for 500+ deaths per day until the end of march. that seems incredibly unlikely
Report peckerdunne October 30, 2020 7:31 PM GMT
It will be more prolonged.
Report Fatslogger October 30, 2020 7:42 PM GMT

Oct 30, 2020 -- 2:29PM, mafeking wrote:


sage's latest doomsday scenario has got us down for 500+ deaths per day until the end of march. that seems incredibly unlikely


I don't buy that at all.  Their plausible worst case things are somewhat intentionally rather grim though, I think.

Report lapsy pa October 30, 2020 7:53 PM GMT
Maybe "covid ping pong" for the winter ie North-South-North again?
It is damning when the consensus that tier 3 is actually leaving the virus "grow" through R.

One sobering report of the actual situation imo.
Report mafeking October 30, 2020 10:46 PM GMT
would need something like 20 million to be infected in next 5 months to be in the right ball park
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 30, 2020 10:57 PM GMT
Need to shut down hospitality bar takeaway for most of November if we want a christmas
Report TheGoldenVision October 30, 2020 10:57 PM GMT
We had a lockdown from March to July and it made no difference. Why should a 2 or 3 week circuit break suddenly be the answer? This virus will be around for a long time if not forever. Just live (or die) with it. And still the Chinese get away with it!
Report Capt__F October 30, 2020 11:00 PM GMT
Two Wongs dont make a flight
Report mafeking October 30, 2020 11:05 PM GMT
50000 new cases in france today with them testing far lower numbers than us and belgium the same number as us from 1/6 of the population

yep GV lockdowns are utterly pointless. even if they were a good idea compliance is now so low you will just drive people from pubs and restaurants which could not be more regulated into private houses and parties where anything goes
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 30, 2020 11:16 PM GMT
My house is better regulated than a pub

Not sure what yours must be like?
Report mafeking October 30, 2020 11:21 PM GMT
donny, me and you may well behave ourselves and take sensible precautions but there are clearly a significant minority that don't or just can't be bothered with massive numbers crowded into houses

far better to have people just sat at the same table all night
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 30, 2020 11:24 PM GMT
I really think hospitality should be shut.

If people then misbehave it will
be on much smaller scale to these covid factories currently causing chaos.
Report SontaranStratagem October 30, 2020 11:24 PM GMT
They will lockdown to ruin the small businesses

The end for them with this next lockdown
Report nineteen points October 31, 2020 9:44 AM GMT
everyone wanting lockdown now.a few months ago they were heralding rishi's eotho scam.

make your minds up folks
Report HonkyJoe October 31, 2020 11:11 AM GMT
Everybody's concentrating on overall case figures when the truth about CoV-2 can only really be found by digging deeper.

This latest wave started when you had huge numbers of students moving from relatively static home environments to completely new places. Suddenly, the virus found lots of new people who were susceptible. Once there are sufficient virus numbers in the local area, it starts working its way through. This phase lasts for about four to six weeks. By that stage, the virus has spread back to the greater community, and it then takes several more weeks to work through them.   So essentially, you wait for it to work through the younger people, and it should then peak within the wider community a few weeks later.

You can actually see this if you go to the case figures for the local areas and break them down into age groups. Take the North first. Amongst 15-24-yrs, the virus has fallen dramatically across Newcastle, Leeds, Sheffield, Durham, Manchester, Liverpool, and Lancaster. Sunderland looks pretty good too, and York, Chester, and Carlisle might also be in downtrends.

Across all age groups, though, it's a different matter. There, only Newcastle looks to have gone into a proper downtrend, with Durham and Liverpool going into a small downtrend, and Manchester possibly doing so. Sunderland, York, Leeds, Sheffield, and Lancaster all seem to be plateauing, although they haven't started going down yet. Carlisle and Chester are still getting up to their peaks. There's no reason to believe that these case numbers won't start going down before long - they're just a few weeks behind the student numbers.

The North had far more cases floating around in the summer, and so was hit first. The Midlands is about a couple of weeks behind. Only Nottingham looks good there, although across the 15-24 group Birmingham might be reaching a plateau, and Coventry and Solihull are in slight downtrends. Across all age groups, they have still to reach the peak in any of those areas with the exception of Nottingham, where it looks to have receded in both categories. Give it a couple of weeks, and the student populations ought to have peaked in the Midlands, and the other age groups ought to be getting somewhere near their peak.

Of course, even if the North and Midlands start to fall back, the figures will be going up further south. If you concentrate only on nationwide case figures, you'll simply see a wall of rising numbers. What we really want to do is monitor much smaller areas, and see how the cycles are working their way through at local level. As it blows through one area, the pressure there will decrease. As long as it's peaking in individual areas after a few weeks, we should be letting it work its way through the country - while trying to safeguard the older and more vulnerable. Nothing else will really work, financially or in terms of fighting it.
Report lapsy pa November 23, 2020 4:00 PM GMT
Boris blustering on about the scientific cavalary arriving in HOC, indeed they are and with people getting vaccinated in a matter of weeks surely a grave mistake to have ignored SAGE in Sept,if he acted it would have saved lives and less damage to the economy.
Report dukeofpuke November 23, 2020 4:15 PM GMT
Leicester Royal Infirmary released its last 2 covid patients at the end of August
Report lapsy pa May 26, 2021 12:14 PM BST
So the answer was all the time to ignore this was the PM's alledged comment that only 80+ year olds die.
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