Why is the US presidential election market suspended?

3.5 Trump now being matched elsewhere.

If he was on oxygen or a ventilator a suspension may be justified, but if he dies its covered in their rules anyway.

Far more interesting is deciding if pence would get the nom or if they would look elsewhere for somebody that might actually win.

I have no position in this market winningthought but as there are many interdependencies and obscure angles I would like the opportunity to bet.

Can see them trying to switch to Nikki Haley, yhtl

I hear you dave. I'd be much more frustrated if I was more actively involved in the market. I certainly won't be getting involved until Trumps health issue has been resolved if they are going to keep on suspending.

Pence would get the Trump votes, but probably not enough else to win.

Any candidate not sufficiently Trumpian to hold his base would be more likely to lose. People in MAGA hats would not come out for Haley or Ryan.

I think Pompeo would be their best bet to switch to, but if Pence is contesting it then it could become a shambles.

Pre news update prices...

Biden 1.52
Trump 3.35
Pence 27.0

I think they have to stick with pence as they can argue that already cast votes for the trump/pence ticket go to him. Ballots already printed will have trump pence and can't be changed in time. A rather gruesome thought is that they might keep trump on life support, till after the election, so if he wins the presidency would pass to pence.

Don't give them ideas Dave! It's gonna be like the wee North Korean guy.

Did you see the ballotpedia article from 2016 I posted yesterday, dave? Worth a read:

https://ballotpedia.org/What_options_does_the_GOP_have_if_Trump_drops_out

I read the 538 one https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-a-presidential-nominee-can-no-longer-run-for-office/
It has a bit more relevance to this situation.

Yes, I read that one too when I was doing my research.

The Electoral College scenario in the ballotpedia article is interesting though, I think.

That's what I'm saying..

Because a challenge to the outcome of the election would undoubtedly ensue from some of those of those options, given that votes have already been cast, calling into doubt the outcome.

Also, bear in mind that Betfair has been trying to crack America for twenty-years. That has been a learning curve in respect of the puritanical forces still in ascendency there. Betfair shouldn't jeopardise the progress by risking the ire of Americans who feel strongly about this. The rise in valuation of, say, William Hill shares in the last six months shows where Betfair's priorities lie against the clamour of a few arbers.


The good news has been trending for the day, if it is sustained and it produces clarity, I'm fairly confident the market will be re-opened in good time.

Trump doctor 'extremely happy with president's progress'
Trump's medical team is "extremely happy with the progress the president has made", says his personal doctor, Dr Sean Conley.

He was brought into hospital as a "precautionary measure", Dr Conley says.

The medical team say President Trump is not on oxygen or having difficulty breathing,

One of the doctors says Trump told him: "I feel like I could walk out of here today."

He has been fever-free for over 24 hours, the doctors say.

rump not on oxygen, doctors say
President Trump has been receiving "outstanding multidisciplinary care", his doctors say.

They are "monitoring him very closely for any evidence of complications" but say he hasn't had any fever since Friday morning.

Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen.

He's receiving both the drug Remdesivir and an experimental treatment. They tackle different aspects of the disease, the doctors say.

They say they are "maximising all aspects of his care" and "don't want to hold anything back".

Trump very well, his doctor says
President Donald Trump is doing "very well" after spending the night in a hospital, his physician Dr Sean Conley has said.

Trump not on hydroxychloroquine, doctors say
President Trump asked about the drug hydroxychloroquine, but is not taking it at this time, his doctors say. Early in the pandemic, he touted the medicine as a treatment for coronavirus - a recommendation not borne out by medical research.

First Lady Melania Trump, who has also tested positive, remains at the White House and is not being treated at the Walter Reed military hospital.

She is "doing great", the doctors say, and is "convalescing at home".

Probably her best day in the white house

Picking out mourning dresses

Trump price now coming in elsewhere.

This is about one thing only, not offending Repub legislators in the US. Traders and liquidity providers can go fcuk themselves. The funny thing is that Ayn Rand must be spinning in her paupers grave at this betrayal of markets that should be red in tooth and claw.

Confusion mounts over Trump's true condition after doctor's Covid briefing – live
Source reported to be White House chief of staff Mark Meadows says Trump’s next 48 hours ‘will be critical’

Says Graun.

Purple back up now.

betfair only exchange down.

Purple go..

Biden 1.56
Trump 3.25
Pence 27.0

Smart go..

Biden 1.54
Trump 3.2
Pence 25

Match go...

Biden 1.53
Trump 3.1
Pence 16.0

The great James Butler pull.ed out of Betfair a couple of years back saying it was a dark pool and not a proper exchange

Disagree, rock piper; it would be a mistake to go back to frontier days when to back a NR was to lose your money imo.

Oversight protects more than it hinders the players complaining on this thread.

Smarkets? Steer clear!


Clearly Erroneous Bets Policy
1. Erroneous bets

Smarkets may consider bets to be clearly erroneous in cases of obvious and significant input error, whether with stake, price or identification of a contract, and where best price execution cannot account for the error and bring the bet within the defined boundaries of the ‘fair price’ as described below. Please note that the price differences noted below are in absolute difference in percentage price unless stated otherwise. For example a bet matched at odds of 50% (2.0 in decimal format) is considered 10% different to the price of 40% (2.5 in decimal odds).

In cases where best price execution can only account for a part of a bet, we would still consider any other portion of the bet to be clearly erroneous if it falls under the definitions below.

This policy is designed to protect customers, however, where one or more counter party to the erroneous bet trades out of their position, we may not be able to recover the full amount and the customer who placed the erroneous bet will remain liable for the difference. The customer placing the bet will be defined as the one placing the order in the first instance.

2. Filing a complaint

In order to raise an erroneous bet complaint, a written request for the bet to be investigated must be received by Smarkets via email to support@smarkets.com within 60 minutes of the bet being matched and, in the absence of exceptional circumstances, this must be received before the result has been decided. For this purpose, exceptional circumstances shall include but not be limited to, bets that are matched just moments before a market is decided and where contacting us before this would be impractical. The request must include the following information:

The time the bet was matched
The contract and market the bet was placed on
Price the bet was matched at
Reason for believing the bet to be erroneous

Please note that it is still the responsibility of users to manage their own bets in-play in unmanaged markets.

3. Outlier transactions

In the case of outlier transactions Smarkets may, at its sole and absolute discretion and on a case by case basis, carry out investigations into trades beyond the 60 minute reporting window or after events have been settled.

Outlier transactions are defined as bets matched at a price that exceeds +-20% of the determined fair market price at the time the bet was matched.

4. Defining fair market price

When a complaint is filed, Smarkets will use any available resources, including but not limited to, recent trades on the Smarkets exchange and prices available elsewhere at the time, to determine the fair market price at the time the bet was matched. If the erroneous bet was matched at a price of +-15% of the fair market price at the time, Smarkets reserves the right to void the bet.

In addition to recent execution prices and prices available on other platforms at the time the bet was matched, Smarkets may also consider a number of additional factors when deciding whether a bet is clearly erroneous.

These include, but are not limited to, system malfunction, the volatility of the contract, new information becoming available in the public domain that may significantly alter the price (such as team news for a football match), whether the result of the bet had been unconditionally decided before a complaint was raised, whether betting on the market was recently halted and resumed, the start price of the selection and if the complainant had taken any steps to limit their exposure to the erroneous bet.

For example if the price of a contract is particularly volatile at the time a bet was matched, due to new information becoming public or otherwise, it is less likely bets will be voided under this policy as the fair price would be more difficult to determine objectively.

In cases where Smarkets cannot provide a reasonable determination of the fair price of the contract, no bets will be voided.

5. Reviewing bets on Smarkets’ own motion

Smarkets may also conduct reviews of bets on their own initiative. In normal office hours, and excluding the case of outlier transactions, users will be alerted to the investigation and informed of a decision within 120 minutes of the bets being matched
Where the erroneous bet occurs outside normal office hours, a decision will be conveyed by 18:00 GMT on the next business day, defined as Monday to Friday and excluding national holidays in the UK.




So, any whinging loser who says `I made a mistake, pressed the wrong button! Yes, I was happy with it until the market went against me, but now that I`ve lost, I`ll scweam and scweam until you bail me out!` can have the bet cancelled, even after the event! As for this whole `fair price` tosh, well, if bf applied such stupidity, I`d never win a penny! Worse, it`s believed smarkets seed the markets, so many `erroneous` and `unfair` prices cancelled will be them saving themselves money, for their own mistakes!

Thanks for that Tim,I had just signed up and was polishing up my credit card. What a joke of an exchange, where mistakes are rewarded and skill punished.

got a huge green on pence created for exactly this situation.

Would love to lay some off now but market suspended. so frustrating

Would also likely be the chance to trade some other republicans not to mention the front two

Don't worry, if every other exchange has opened, surely in a multi million pound market, betfair will open shortly?

I have a few bob on Pence too but nothing to write home about. Think fatslogger has got the prayer mat out for Pence right now.

Oct 3, 2020 -- 8:12PM, politicspunter wrote:

I have a few bob on Pence too but nothing to write home about. Think fatslogger has got the prayer mat out for Pence right now.

Not really, only a few hundred more on him than others, from trades rather than any Hail Mary huge odds backs.

I was green on Fiddy for about 5.5K at one stage figuring that Trump had to get the virus the way he was behaving but I traded most of that out figuring that time was running out. I still have a bit left and would like to be able to stick an order in to trade it out. I wouldn't like to do it anywhere else beacuse the way BF keep fcuking around, I wouldn't be surprised if they voided this.

Whats Fiddy?

I started trading with a £2 punt in the Trump To Leave Before End of 1st Term market back in March.

Buying when Trump is 1.09 or lower and selling when he's 1.14 or higher.

Low margins and hardly worth the effort but if I'm in the right place with the right bet... it might be worth it.

My position showing on the suspended screen is £14.71 (red) NO and (yes) 136.66 (green).

Betfair may eventually lift the suspension before midday 20th January 2021.

Which, of course is when the market expires.

What odds would you give that Trump makes it?

For a £2 stake, that`s good trading

I was trading in the green prior to the market being suspended.

Pretty sure smarkets rule is aimed at hacked accounts and money laundering. It really shouldn't deter anyone unless the plan to run trap bet bots.

Rubbish! I wouldn`t know a bot from a cot! 16 winning years out of 16 on here, pretty much entirely down to getting fancy prices, (aka; the value), and the vast majority of those prices would be subject to voiding if a loser started whinging, or if smarkets themselves were the counter party

"Whats Fiddy?"

Mike "Fiddy" Pence

^If you can only win by spending hours scouring exchanges for fat fingers, you are a pretty sad character imo. btw I stated why I believe that the smarkets rule is there, not that I agree with it.

also as you are an ex?? bookmaker I don't see you campaigning for the palpable error rule to be abolished

IMO betfair could  have suspended any of  the Trump specials ( year of exit from office etc) ie markets that could be perceived as betting on Trumps death and left the 2020 election market open .Thereby taking the high ground and also looking after the vast majority of their political betting customer.

dave; As a good and right thinker, I recognise the importance of individual responsibility, standing by what I say and do, no weasling out. As such, I`ve never invoked the palp, honouring whatever mistake I`ve made. Doesn`t happen too often, doesn`t usually involve too much money, so serves as fantastic pr. `

well good for you, but you know that you are the exception rather that the rule re palps.

My feeling is that, if you want 3.0 or above Trump, you will have to bet elsewhere and bet soon.
That value could vanish while betfair (for valid reasons) have their main market suspended.

Bisciuts, I cant see any valid reason for the extended suspension based on the rules for the bet.

MARKET INFORMATION

For further information please see Rules & Regs.

Will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America before the end of his first term in office has been completed?

This includes, but is not limited to, if Donald Trump leaves office due to death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). All bets will be voided if Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States of America due to an assassination or an assassination attempt.

Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

I agree with your assessment that value could vanish while betfair have their main market suspended.

Oct 5, 2020 -- 6:08PM, askjack wrote:

Bisciuts, I cant see any valid reason for the extended suspension based on the rules for the bet.MARKET INFORMATIONFor further information please see Rules & Regs.Will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America before the end of his first term in office has been completed?This includes, but is not limited to, if Donald Trump leaves office due to death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). All bets will be voided if Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States of America due to an assassination or an assassination attempt.Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.I agree with your assessment that value could vanish while betfair have their main market suspended.

Why don't you simply place your bets elsewhere?

Imagine sensitivities about Fltr's penetration of the US market is top priority; it's their business, after all.


https://www.****.com/exchange/politics/us-politics/next-us-presidential-election/7632684

3.25 Trump

Spunter, scroll back a few days to where I outlined my betting history and current suspended position in this market.

I’ve had some nice trades on the not completing first term market but don’t know whether this leaves me in a good, bad or indifferent position overall now. I suspect good as I doubt he’ll now become significantly unwell, although that remains somewhat possible. I also can’t even find the market now, because the app won’t show me bets for the last few days (typical Betfair) and I haven’t been bothered to track it down the long way.

Oct 5, 2020 -- 7:14PM, askjack wrote:

Spunter, scroll back a few days to where I outlined my betting history and current suspended position in this market.

Yep, I see that. Other firms have similar markets.

Biscuits, I had to lookup FTR's and found Flutter Entertainment PLC...

Oh, what a tangled web they weave. lol

I think that a novelty betting market outcome would have zero impact on any possible deals.

12,480.00 GBX +235.00 (1.92%)

Just a bit outside a £2 punters range LOL

All back up and I can now search by bets again, implying that the suspensions had killed that function.

Well, I don't know if how it looks in the USA is the deciding factor but it must be one.

Suspened lifted and very strange odds. Back to trading.

He wants out of the hospital tonight. He might be back in by the end of the week.

I think they have excellent medical facilities within the White House so I guess he should be ok.

Just made my entry

Oct 5, 2020 -- 8:43PM, politicspunter wrote:

I think they have excellent medical facilities within the White House so I guess he should be ok.

This is true but makes the decision to take him to hospital when he obviously wasn’t that sick an especially odd one. Clearly they had some worries and probably wanted to do tests, particularly a CT scan, that they couldn’t have done at the While House. Also, as a doctor, you’d probably be a bit anxious about looking after the president and play it cautiously. And doctors like hospitals, probably more than we should.

At five days in, he isn’t beyond the time when he could get very unwell but I’d assume they’ve reasonable evidence that he’s improving.

Welcome to the party CS.

Interesting that Trump has shortened rather on trading resuming. I was hoping to catch a back at 3.05 then see that move as the market calmed down but didn’t hit it. Of course, it would just have been a trade. I still think Trump should be much longer. I don’t think I’d back him at 5s right now, if not allowed to trade.

This is no lump n leave FS I just want 1 tick (for now)

Oct 5, 2020 -- 9:24PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:

This is no lump n leave FS I just want 1 tick  (for now)

You could leave that lump and trade some more. I think this offers the best outcome value you’re likely to see all year.

I was wondering what if?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzzugWwv4-M

WTF. I'm staying with my trade.

Mainly because I think Trump is a very sick person and any Betfair market needs time to settle down after suspension.

I do massively see Old Joe heading down to 1.2 sooner or later but for now I'll take my 1 tick and run.

With Trump there is always another melodrama around the corner and some of them are to his advantage.  If he calls in live to Hannity tonight he might send Joe back out

balls the size of ..... pea nuts cardinal scott 

a win is a win though so well done 

a vaccine or some attorney general prosecutions of senior democrats could help trump.

Puts the £100m matched in perspective..

Do **** still count a back of 1 @10 as 11?

D A Q

Crazy times. What if Biden announces he's got COVID and Trump really, truly is incapacitated and the VP's have to run?

Kamala Harris
130
£2.00
£258.00

Unlikely, but if you have a small bet in the right place at the right time...

Better value is for her to win the Popular vote, currently 300

Oct 5, 2020 -- 10:43PM, timbuctooth wrote:

Better value is for her to win the Popular vote, currently 300

Doesn’t feel like great value. There’s no time for her name to be put on the ballots, even if Biden drops down dead in the next 24 hours. It’s not totally clear how that would play out for replacing him as nominee, although it would almost certainly go to Harris but I can’t see how that would give her the popular vote.

Well, I have just had another tenner on Pence at 250s

It's a punt. That's what I do.

Trump "is back" (he's only been gone 2 days but somehow it calls for hyperbole) so Pence ain't going to be president now

Well he will if Trump dies.

All Pence bets are on the basis Trump might die (and always have been to some extent) so all this ethical stuff by Betfair is lame.

Nobody said it was `great` value, simply `better`. We don`t know what price she`d be to win the PV if she got the gig, but if we assume it would be somewhere near joe`s current price of 1.13, then her 130 for POTUS equates to a PV price of less than 150. Rather than being argumentative for the sake of it when confronted by truth and facts, and seeing as 300 is double 150, I`d say that`s better value, wouldn`t you?

Oct 5, 2020 -- 11:03PM, timbuctooth wrote:

Nobody said it was `great` value, simply `better`. We don`t know what price she`d be to win the PV if she got the gig, but if we assume it would be somewhere near joe`s current price of 1.13, then her 130 for POTUS equates to a PV price of less than 150. Rather than being argumentative for the sake of it when confronted by truth and facts, and seeing as 300 is double 150, I`d say that`s better value, wouldn`t you?

No, for the reasons I’ve given you that you’ve ignored. The price disparity is because it’s possible for her to win the presidency and probably not possible for her to win the popular vote, even if she does take over from Biden.

Incorrect. Again! 130 against 300 implies she`d need to be 2.3 for PV and, if you believe that, well, those schmoles have addled you!

Possible that Kamala Harris could rise out of the scum and I make a few quid... that's the punt. Unlikely but outside chance. That's what the odds are what they are.

Oct 5, 2020 -- 11:17PM, timbuctooth wrote:

Incorrect. Again! 130 against 300 implies she`d need to be 2.3 for PV and, if you believe that, well, those schmoles have addled you!

I’m a little worried that perhaps your fabled expertise in politics that is far better at prediction than polling might actually be a bit of a bluff, if you don’t even understand how the electoral college works. I accept that normally this stuff is niche but we have just had a major health scare of one candidate in the last few days.

Anyway, perhaps I didn’t break it down carefully enough.

Biden dies.
Harris replaces him as Dem nominee in name but can’t replace him on ballots because they’re already out and in plenty of cases of early and postal votes already cast. Note this is true even if Biden dies right now but is progressively becoming even more intractable
People continue to vote “Biden” over Trump, with explainers from Harris and others that she can’t be on in her own name
There are major procedural battles in states “Biden” wins to allow his electors to vote for Harris in the electoral college. These are mostly successful
Harris wins the electoral college but not the popular vote
Betfair settles this

I think this is a massively unlikely scenario, which probably wouldn’t be done justice by a price of 200 but that’s not the point.

Now do one for how Harris wins the popular vote.

So do you think betfair would settle Biden as winner of popular vote, if dead and clearly folk voting for Harris?

Makes 1.14 look a great punt

CHORTLE at fs and his waffling attempts at deflection! I suggested 300 was better (not the `great` you lied about), value than the 130. You lied about what I said, and it`s lead you to more embarrassment  My grasp of this, coupled with your lack of understanding, probably explains the difference in our betting success.

Oct 5, 2020 -- 11:34PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

So do you think betfair would settle Biden as winner of popular vote, if dead and clearly folk voting for Harris?Makes 1.14 look a great punt

I’m not sure how they’d settle it and they might very well choose not to but I can’t see how Harris could win it without her name being on the ballots and it’s almost certainly not practically feasible to reprint all the ballots plus invalidate ones already cast with less than a month to go (before you subtract the time it takes Biden to die, the DNC to agree Harris and people to decide what to do next).

The only way I could really see it happening would be if there was agreement to suspend voting and postpone the election and I doubt that would be agreed widely enough.

Oct 5, 2020 -- 11:52PM, timbuctooth wrote:

CHORTLE at fs and his waffling attempts at deflection! I suggested 300 was better (not the `great` you lied about), value than the 130. You lied about what I said, and it`s lead you to more embarrassment

Usual projection and chortle. Tim, you have no idea what lying is, from this post, despite doing a lot of it.

Please explain how Harris can win the PV. I’ll wait.

Trump was heading for his death bed 36 hours ago, 36 hours later he feels 20 years younger and is now donning a mask 24/7

Some serious s*** in those drugs he's been "taking" eh

He ain't going to die, the joke is on us

To be fair, SS, did many people say he would die?

Just one fascinating hypothesis/theory. I'm trading Kamala Harris and backing Trump to resigns (with a pardon) or retires permanently before 20/01/2021.

Pretty much the same procedure that she`d win POTUS! Probably best if you stopped the wriggling your deceitful misquoting of me has necessitated.

Oct 6, 2020 -- 12:04AM, timbuctooth wrote:

Pretty much the same procedure that she`d win POTUS! Probably best if you stopped the wriggling your deceitful misquoting of me has necessitated.

Still waiting.

Also, WTAF are you on about with the lying accusation? I printed out that it wasn’t great value betting on an I don’t know, perhaps 2000 shot at 300s. It’s also worse value than a 300 shot at 130. The two points are entirely consistent. Can you show me where I said you’d called it great value and misquoted you? You’re inventing this. At the very worst I straw manned what you were saying but as I proved what you were actually saying wrong at the same time, even that doesn’t really stand up, especially as I actually quoted what you said using the actual quote function. You’re either deflecting or unhinged or both.

CHORTLE!!!

Oct 6, 2020 -- 12:15AM, timbuctooth wrote:

CHORTLE!!!

Well done, you’re really good at this debating business. You’ve got the key unhinged laughter down pat. Now you just need some facts and the ability to marshal them. I’ll wait. Probably for a while, to be fair.

In fact, I’ll go to sleep and see how you’ve explained how “ Pretty much the same procedure that she`d win POTUS” gets Harris on the ballots, in the morning. I’m excited about what a good job you’re going to do.

As a good and right thinker, I feel an obligation to elucidate and educate those less fortunate, (aka; lefties), so I stick to truth and facts. lefties are demolished by such concepts, their credo being so evil that their insufferable desperation oozes from the black hole where humans have a soul, they have no choice but to deflect repeatedly, in ever louder and shriller tones. Having recently been drawn into one such deflection attempt, and being incorrectly accused of lying for three months, I choose to stick with posting facts and truth, I choose not to post a rebuttal to whatever nonsense lefties contort themselves into, and I choose not to kneel, comply or appease.

Meanwhile, let`s all CHORTLE at the leftie in the corner, as he `waits`!

Oh there’s an enormous shock, I’ve woken up and tim can’t actually explain how Harris gets on the ballot but has posted a load of hypocritical deflection and nonsense to avoid admitting he was wrong. Never change, Tim, never change.