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InsiderTrader
30 Sep 20 12:14
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 14,569 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
He got through the first debate with no big health issues.

He avoided naming his supreme court picks and tangented well to health care in that segment.

He has distanced himself from the far left on green issues, the police and said he is the Democratic Party.

He is well ahead in the polls currently.

Covid is still killing almost a thousand people daily in the USA.

The media is against Trump more than ever.

4 years ago HRC was in a far worse position with the email scandal and was a shorter price that Biden.

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Replies: 94
By:
Jumping-cuckoo-monk
When: 30 Sep 20 12:18
Of course he is. We should all sell/remortgage our houses, put funds on JB and when he deffo wins donate the winnings to BLM.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:21
Laugh creating a thread that you can TTT on election day? So you can claim, I said Biden was value all along...

TO answer your question - yes 1.64 is still overpriced.

1.25 vs 5.0 would be about right at the moment IMO.
By:
Jumping-cuckoo-monk
When: 30 Sep 20 12:22
Post your bet.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:25
I don't need to satisfy some plonker off the betfair forum, thanks though.
By:
Jumping-cuckoo-monk
When: 30 Sep 20 12:27
Yeah, as I thought.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:28
Crazy
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Sep 20 12:30
DK, you’ll be totally amazed to hear that J-c-m doesn’t really want to engage in a real and civilised debate about betting value.

Yes, Biden remains amazing value at 1.64, although I’m quite surprised that it’s IT suggesting it.
By:
Jumping-cuckoo-monk
When: 30 Sep 20 12:30
You must be Crazy not to bet on a 1.64 shot when you rate it 1.25
But you don't bet do you?
Just another forum anti-trump gobsh1te
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:33
He's probably only suggesting/asking that Biden is value to cover his back, considering all the other threads he's started.

But fair enough if he's altering his opinion / position if his opinion on the market has really changed.

The fact it took a completely predictable 'debate' to help change his view of this race is worrying though.
By:
Jumping-cuckoo-monk
When: 30 Sep 20 12:33
Fats, You don't think a punter should look for an edge on a betfair market on politics even if he doesn't believe in the politics of the selection?
Interesting
Do you just bet on who you agree with politically?
How much you lose on Hilary?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Sep 20 12:34

Sep 30, 2020 -- 12:33PM, Jumping-cuckoo-monk wrote:


Fats, You don't think a punter should look for an edge on a betfair market on politics even if he doesn't believe in the politics of the selection?InterestingDo you just bet on who you agree with politically?How much you lose on Hilary?


Helllloooo straw men!

By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:34
He is well ahead in the polls currently.

Covid is still killing almost a thousand people daily in the USA.

The media is against Trump more than ever.

4 years ago HRC was in a far worse position with the email scandal and was a shorter price that Biden.


It's almost as though he's just realised those realities.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 30 Sep 20 12:36
Fire and ice returns
By:
politicspunter
When: 30 Sep 20 12:38
I think Biden is closer to a 1.3 shot at the moment, Trump around 4.5.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 30 Sep 20 12:42
The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:42
Personally I think he was 1.3ish before the debate but after that ****-show from Trump (appealing to absolutely no undecided voters / or anyone who isn't his base) I see him closer to 1.2/1.25 now. Wouldn't expect the tightening of any national polls in the next week or so.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:43
The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.

Only the very naive thought he'd somehow keel over or forget where he was. It is also possible that Trump did worse than the low bar set.
By:
Jumping-cuckoo-monk
When: 30 Sep 20 12:44
That was a low blow, apologies.
Now get back to work!
By:
politicspunter
When: 30 Sep 20 12:45

Sep 30, 2020 -- 12:43PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:


The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.Only the very naive thought he'd somehow keel over or forget where he was. It is also possible that Trump did worse than the low bar set.


Trump came across as a bit desperate. He hasn't got a clear cut attack strategy that appears to stick and frankly, it might be too late anyway.

By:
InsiderTrader
When: 30 Sep 20 12:46

Sep 30, 2020 -- 12:43PM, DanielKoellerer wrote:


The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.Only the very naive thought he'd somehow keel over or forget where he was. It is also possible that Trump did worse than the low bar set.


I am not making a prediction or looking for insults.

I do not deal in certainties like you do.

Just asking a question.

You say yourself you think Biden's chances have improved since the debate.

By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 12:49
Trump performed worse than I thought he would. And my expectation was fairly low already ! Even a fair number of his supporters do not like his twitter rages, yet he performed the equivalent out on stage.

Biden performed at about the level I expected.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Sep 20 12:52

Sep 30, 2020 -- 12:44PM, Jumping-cuckoo-monk wrote:


That was a low blow, apologies.Now get back to work!


You are right, I do have better things to do than pin labels on trolls. Anyone with even half an eye open would hardly need the help anyway.

By:
kevinglass
When: 30 Sep 20 12:55
Biden's chances certainly have not diminished. I'm on at 1.83 average, and I'm happy with that. Backed between 1.75, for quite a bit. Topped up at 1.98 for a bit more.

I also think it's more 1/4 or so for a Biden win. Trump has to appeal to non Trump voters, and he seems incapable or unwilling to do so.

I must also admit I want him to lose, and will have a big smile on my face if he does, for financial and other reasons.

I try not to let that cloud my bet. The polls are the things that do that. Trump needs so much to go right between now and November, which is why he's 1/4 or so in my book.

He's an egomaniac bully, with narcassistic tendencies. Being the President for nearly 4 years has only magnified these conditions.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 30 Sep 20 12:59
Trump needs so much to go right between now and November, which is why he's 1/4 or so in my book.

I think Trump is a lot bigger than a 1/4 shot at this stage. Even pre-Covid when the economy was firing he was much bigger than that.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 13:02
Correct Kevin.

He needs everything to go right and all the stars to align on the 3rd November.
By:
edy
When: 30 Sep 20 13:07
InsiderTrader • September 30, 2020 12:46 PM BST

I am not making a prediction or looking for insults.

I do not deal in certainties like you do.

Just asking a question.

You say yourself you think Biden's chances have improved since the debate.


^

You sounded pretty certain and looking for insults when you opened a thread in which you insisted that Biden should be withdrawn from the nomination and that the evil Dems and his family are pushing the old man into a horrible, cruel situation without the senile man even realising what's being done to him.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 30 Sep 20 13:08
Biden just needs the voters that turn out to think the same way as the media and the Biden backers.

What could go wrong?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 30 Sep 20 13:30
IT, I’m with edy on finding your Biden conversion to be a bit hard to explain. I doubt anyone thinking Biden should be short odds is disputing that the debate strengthened his position, although personally I’d have had him nearly as tight as 1.2 or so before it and only marginally better after. The debate going slightly his way, as was my expectation, only helps him a little by removing some uncertainty. The questions have to be around what you made the odds before and after the debate and why, if indeed you think it shifted the odds so much, you think that.

Personally I just see this as the market waking up a bit and correcting itself somewhat, although I still think it’s on hard drugs.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 30 Sep 20 15:54
I expect another Trump price crash caused by his fanboys when the October surprise is revealed in the form of the Barr/Durham report, but it will ultimately prove to be yet another damp squib and Trump suffers a humiliating defeat.
By:
winningthought
When: 30 Sep 20 16:06
This is looking more like a 2016 redux with every passing minute. Hopefully we get 1.25 Biden on election day just like last time.

If Trump was able to cheat his way into the White House as an outsider in 2016, think how much better he'll be able to do it now that he is in the White House Cool
By:
timbuctooth
When: 30 Sep 20 16:28
winningthought 30 Sep 20 16:06 
This is looking more like a 2016 redux with every passing minute. Hopefully we get 1.25 Biden on election day just like last time.

Hilary was 1.09 on election day
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 16:28
Biden REFUSED to use the term, LAW & ORDER! There go the Suburbs.

Biden wants to Pack the Supreme Court, thereby ruining it. Also, he wants no fracking, killing our Energy business, and JOBS. Second Amendment is DEAD if Biden gets in! Is that what you want from a leader? He will destroy our Country! VOTE NOW USA.

Nobody wants Sleepy Joe as a leader, including the Radical Left (which he lost last night!). He disrespected Bernie, effectively calling him a loser!



Trump tweets this morning look SO desperate. PLEASE believe these tweets.
By:
winningthought
When: 30 Sep 20 16:32
Hilary was 1.09 on election day

Wrong. Hillary hit 1.09 early on as the results were coming in.
By:
Jumping-cuckoo-monk
When: 30 Sep 20 16:40
That was a Great Day Grin
By:
timbuctooth
When: 30 Sep 20 16:48
winningthought 30 Sep 20 16:32 
Hilary was 1.09 on election day

Wrong. Hillary hit 1.09 early on as the results were coming in.

No, I`m right actually, as those results were coming in on election day, so she DID hit 1.09 on election day.
By:
DanielKoellerer
When: 30 Sep 20 16:52
"Will you shut up, man!" Laugh
By:
winningthought
When: 30 Sep 20 16:54
Pre-match on the day she was 1.25. There was no guarantee you would have got any lower. No doubt you doubled down at 1.09.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 30 Sep 20 17:03
If you want to jump in and get snotty over details, maybe it would help if you had your details right!
By:
winningthought
When: 30 Sep 20 17:06
Idiot.
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