Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:19PM, Giuseppe wrote:
if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a mask?
How do you know in Belarus if they have or haven't?
Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:19PM, Giuseppe wrote:
if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a mask?
I don't see the link. It is like asking 'if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a red cap?' or 'if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear pink shoes?'
Sep 20, 2020 -- 1:59PM, Cider wrote:
Sep 20, 2020 -- 7:32PM, Fatslogger wrote:We’ve been testing everyone coming into hospital for Covid for months. If the numbers have gone up it’s not because of more testing and while hospital attendances do vary a bit, a doubling won’t be from double the number of people coming in. The seasonal effect he’s describing applies to a number of viruses. It’s not yet clear that it applies to Coronavirus or whether it’s because restrictions have been eased. Probably it’s a bit of both.I've posed the question a few times, and you probably won't have the answer but how many people are admitted directly due to covid 19? If there's more covid in the community then more people admitted will test positive, whatever the reason for going into hospital. The ONS survey figures have doubled, therefore admissions have doubled and it follow on that deaths having tested positive will have doubled. We could easily say the number of people who died with a common cold has doubled. The excess deaths should tell us more, although they will be a little out due to the BH catch up.
We rate admissions on a colour scale.
Green = no suspicion of Covid, either no evidence of infection or convincing evidence of infection that isn’t Covid
Amber = some suspicion of Covid but not terrible likely, say a fever but normal chest X-ray
Red = high suspicion of Covid, usually suggestive symptoms like cough, breathlessness, fever, loss of smell or taste; blood tests consistent with infection (this is quite non specific) and chest X-ray features of Covid pneumonia
Black = confirmed Covid on PCR swab
This is made more complicated by Covid being a biphasic illness, with initial viral symptoms, especially fever, cough and loss of smell and taste but also often muscle pain and exhaustion. In most people that’s all there is, although symptoms can be very severe and go on for quite a while. This, while potentially very unpleasant, isn’t the big problem, which is that in a proportion of people, there is a subsequent reaction, usually about a week after initial symptoms, which causes a viral pneumonia, which is the main cause of death, although this group can also become unwell in multiple other ways too. It’s the latter group that mostly comes to hospital.
We’ve largely diagnosed Covid in the red group, although there were perhaps about 15% of the amber group also testing positive at peak.
From my experience not a single case that was PCR positive was admitted with something else and just happened to have Coronavirus too. We did have one bloke come in with green status (because he had a urine infection) but turned out to have Covid but he was behaving rather more like Covid after a day in hospital and fortunately we’d isolated him anyway and got the swab result quickly. Of course there’s somewhat of a risk of over interpreting the test and fitting the clinical picture in retrospectively but I think the almost complete absence of patients with green status returning positive tests supports the argument that this isn’t a very significant problem, certainly not statistically.
The sick Covid patients were all, in my view, sick from Covid. That they had other things wrong with them already doesn’t detract from that.
Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:27PM, Giuseppe wrote:
"Sweden is an international country with lots of travel and a diverse population so more similar to UK, USA, France, Belgium etc than Belarus."people have misconceptions about swedenlife didnt carry on as normal thereyes, cinemas and nightclubs were open but nobody was going to themstreet footfall was down, use of public transport was down, some school age groups were kept at homethe contrast with belarus is much greater
some school age groups were kept at home
All kids up to 16 went to school
They went for a sustainable non-panic set of measures.
Hancock goes for lockdown, to everyone out to the pub for cheap meals, demand everyone goes back to offices, then talks of a lockdown again.
Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:23PM, Fatslogger wrote:
Sep 20, 2020 -- 7:59PM, Cider wrote:Sep 20, 2020 --
Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:48PM, Dotchinite wrote:
Its true Dr. Ive met several over the last few months who think we could lockdown until a vaccine. Stupid doesnt even start to describe them.
Not a view I’ve heard espoused by anyone.
Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:56PM, Dotchinite wrote:
Fatslogger. Congratulations on avoiding the terminally stupid but I assure you they exist.
I may have been lucky.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 3:56AM, Dr Crippen wrote:
Better news from Spain, after falling for ten days their numbers of positive cases have halved. While deaths from covid have fallen substantially from their recent peak. Their second wave is starting to look more like a spike. France recorded 11 deaths from covid yesterday.
We seem to be the only nation that's going to be shut down from this unless people say on your bike and get on with it themselves
With any luck these cants will skulk off soon
Sep 20, 2020 -- 4:36PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
The difference between Sweden and the UK, is that Sweden let the virus run its course to infect the population least at risk from serious illness. So now, many Swedes are immune and the virus has nowhere to go. We protected the young and strong with the lockdown, so they've still to be infected. In that respect the lockdown achieved nothing. We won't be out of the woods until enough people have caught the virus and recovered.We have to continue shielding our old and vulnerable, and let the rest get it and get over it.
I don’t think this is true. Sweden has similar seroconversion rates to the U.K. with for example Stockholm and London v comparable. They also failed to protect people in care homes, so had quite a high death rate, although not as bad as ours. What I think they’ve done much better than us, is maintain a reasonable but not too restrictive set of measures for longer, rather than relax too far and probably have to tighten up again.
I think you’re right about the notion that cases are doubling every 7 days though: they aren’t. They’ve done fearmongering before with dubious stats, I’m afraid. I’d rather they treated us like adults.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 9:09AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Sep 20, 2020 -- 10:36PM, Dr Crippen wrote:The difference between Sweden and the UK, is that Sweden let the virus run its course to infect the population least at risk from serious illness. So now, many Swedes are immune and the virus has nowhere to go. We protected the young and strong with the lockdown, so they've still to be infected. In that respect the lockdown achieved nothing. We won't be out of the woods until enough people have caught the virus and recovered.We have to continue shielding our old and vulnerable, and let the rest get it and get over it.I don’t think this is true. Sweden has similar seroconversion rates to the U.K. with for example Stockholm and London v comparable. They also failed to protect people in care homes, so had quite a high death rate, although not as bad as ours.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 9:18AM, InsiderTrader wrote:
There are so many different AB tests before you even start looking at T-cells and other reasons why parts of the population may not be susceptible to this virus.The 'scientists' on show today completely ignored this. They made out of that everyone (the other 95% of the population) is susceptible to virus which is of course massively open for debate outside of the SAGE group think.
No single test is a perfect reflection of anything. The Ab tests seem to be very good at detecting previous infection, although better if they’re taken a few weeks after. It’s not clear how long circulating antibodies persist, not surprisingly for a virus we’ve only known about for a few months. It’s also not entirely clear that antibody positivity necessarily means immunity or that if it does, how long that immunity lasts. Having said that, immunity is very likely to be correlated with antibody detection (I think follow up studies haven’t show second infections in seroconverters) and I’d be surprised were immunity not to last at least partially for years but then the virus might drift enough in time to undermine this.
The T-cell stuff you seem so keen on is highly speculative. I wouldn’t expect there to be a big group of people who’ve had Covid and developed T-cell immunity to it without antibodies too. The cross reactive immunity is, if anything, even more speculative. Certainly there isn’t enough immunity in even quite heavily exposed populations to prevent further peaks of infection, as for example, are happening in much of Europe right now, although it’s almost certainly the case that such populations will at least be somewhat less vulnerable to further waves.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 10:37AM, Cider wrote:
They claimed today that positive cases are currently doubling every 7 days, which is factually incorrect looking at positive cases in England by specimen date.I'll be generous and take the highest reported working day in the last week. 3,570 on 16/09. The last day before that it was half or less is 28/08 @ 1379.That's 20 bl00dy days not 7!!
I’ve already called that out. I agree with you. They probably think it’s a noble lie. Personally I’d just call it a lie.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 10:40AM, Cider wrote:
Just because someone is claimed to be an expert, it doesn't mean their work is beyond scrutiny.
Straw man alert. I’ve already scrutinised their work and disagreed with bits of it! But the point he was basing the use of speech marks over is one where I think IT’s arguments are at best highly speculative.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 11:01AM, Cider wrote:
Yes 350K per week prediction that wasn't a prediction was based on exponential growth and infections in the community rather than positive tests. It's all kind of wrong as the indications are that the step that I laid out related to the double whammy of school kids going back and the seasonal change. It now appears to be leveling off.
Too early to tell that things are levelling back off and data pretty messy, for the reasons we’ve discussed at some length. I don’t for a moment think we’re going to see weekly case doubling though and if that were even a slightly plausible possibility, they’d have already been increasing measures pretty robustly. Slower increases would still be problematic though, unless they do level off again reasonably soon.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 10:42AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Sep 21, 2020 -- 4:40PM, Cider wrote:Just because someone is claimed to be an expert, it doesn't mean their work is beyond scrutiny.Straw man alert. I’ve already scrutinised their work and disagreed with bits of it! But the point he was basing the use of speech marks over is one where I think IT’s arguments are at best highly speculative.
IT’s arguments are at best highly speculative'
They are supported by many actual evidence based scientists and backed up the highly rated Swedish professionals who have so far avoided a '2nd wave' their superb policies.
The two guys that presented today could not even do basic maths and refused to take questions.
Sep 21, 2020 -- 11:28AM, InsiderTrader wrote:
Sep 21, 2020 -- 4:42PM, Fatslogger wrote:Sep 21, 2020 --
Sep 21, 2020 -- 1:36PM, jollyswagman wrote:
tell that to trader
Getting peer reviewed research is a tad tricky if you're trying to be up to date.