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Dr Crippen
18 Sep 20 16:34
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 49,201 | Blogger: Dr Crippen's blog
''The former chief scientific advisor of Pfizer has told talkRADIO he does not believe there is a second wave, and has challenged the Government to prove otherwise.

30-50% of the population already have immunity to corona viruses from previous infections.

So the 60% needed for herd immunity is easily achieved.

Considering the whole population at risk from the virus was a major blunder.

Hence the horrendous projected figures which were never going to happen.''

That's a quick summary.
Pause Switch to Standard View No second wave - thread gone.
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Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:18 PM BST
"Sweden is the real test case"

mate, forget about sweden

Belarus had no literally no covid restrictions at all
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:19 PM BST
if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a mask?
Report InsiderTrader September 20, 2020 9:20 PM BST
Sweden is an international country with lots of travel and a diverse population so more similar to UK, USA, France, Belgium etc than Belarus.
Report politicspunter September 20, 2020 9:20 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:19PM, Giuseppe wrote:


if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a mask?


How do you know in Belarus if they have or haven't?

Report InsiderTrader September 20, 2020 9:21 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:19PM, Giuseppe wrote:


if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a mask?


I don't see the link. It is like asking 'if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a red cap?' or 'if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear pink shoes?'

Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:22 PM BST
"How do you know in Belarus if they have or haven't?"

from the coverage of the protest marches on TV (Sky, CNN etc)
Report Fatslogger September 20, 2020 9:23 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 1:59PM, Cider wrote:


Sep 20, 2020 --  7:32PM, Fatslogger wrote:We’ve been testing everyone coming into hospital for Covid for months. If the numbers have gone up it’s not because of more testing and while hospital attendances do vary a bit, a doubling won’t be from double the number of people coming in. The seasonal effect he’s describing applies to a number of viruses. It’s not yet clear that it applies to Coronavirus or whether it’s because restrictions have been eased. Probably it’s a bit of both.I've posed the question a few times, and you probably won't have the answer but how many people are admitted directly due to covid 19? If there's more covid in the community then more people admitted will test positive, whatever the reason for going into hospital. The ONS survey figures have doubled, therefore admissions have doubled and it follow on that deaths having tested positive will have doubled. We could easily say the number of people who died with a common cold has doubled. The excess deaths should tell us more, although they will be a little out due to the BH catch up.


We rate admissions on a colour scale.

Green = no suspicion of Covid, either no evidence of infection or convincing evidence of infection that isn’t Covid

Amber = some suspicion of Covid but not terrible likely, say a fever but normal chest X-ray

Red = high suspicion of Covid, usually suggestive symptoms like cough, breathlessness, fever, loss of smell or taste; blood tests consistent with infection (this is quite non specific) and chest X-ray features of Covid pneumonia

Black = confirmed Covid on PCR swab

This is made more complicated by Covid being a biphasic illness, with initial viral symptoms, especially fever, cough and loss of smell and taste but also often muscle pain and exhaustion. In most people that’s all there is, although symptoms can be very severe and go on for quite a while. This, while potentially very unpleasant, isn’t the big problem, which is that in a proportion of people, there is a subsequent reaction, usually about a week after initial symptoms, which causes a viral pneumonia, which is the main cause of death, although this group can also become unwell in multiple other ways too. It’s the latter group that mostly comes to hospital. 

We’ve largely diagnosed Covid in the red group, although there were perhaps about 15% of the amber group also testing positive at peak.

From my experience not a single case that was PCR positive was admitted with something else and just happened to have Coronavirus too. We did have one bloke come in with green status (because he had a urine infection) but turned out to have Covid but he was behaving rather more like Covid after a day in hospital and fortunately we’d isolated him anyway and got the swab result quickly. Of course there’s somewhat of a risk of over interpreting the test and fitting the clinical picture in retrospectively but I think the almost complete absence of patients with green status returning positive tests supports the argument that this isn’t a very significant problem, certainly not statistically.

The sick Covid patients were all, in my view, sick from Covid. That they had other things wrong with them already doesn’t detract from that.

Report politicspunter September 20, 2020 9:23 PM BST
Giuseppe • September 20, 2020 9:19 PM BST
if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a mask?

How do you know if they have or haven't?
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:24 PM BST
"I don't see the link. It is like asking 'if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear a red cap?' or 'if 1% of the population had just died wouldn't you wear pink shoes?' "

ok i see you're going with the masks don't make a difference angle

you're overthinking this

if 1% had died, the population would be terrified

they wouldn't even be going outside
Report politicspunter September 20, 2020 9:26 PM BST
Giuseppe,

What were the percentage actual votes cast for each candidate in the recent Belarus election?
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:27 PM BST
"Sweden is an international country with lots of travel and a diverse population so more similar to UK, USA, France, Belgium etc than Belarus."

people have misconceptions about sweden

life didnt carry on as normal there

yes, cinemas and nightclubs were open but nobody was going to them

street footfall was down, use of public transport was down, some school age groups were kept at home

the contrast with belarus is much greater
Report InsiderTrader September 20, 2020 9:31 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:27PM, Giuseppe wrote:


"Sweden is an international country with lots of travel and a diverse population so more similar to UK, USA, France, Belgium etc than Belarus."people have misconceptions about swedenlife didnt carry on as normal thereyes, cinemas and nightclubs were open but nobody was going to themstreet footfall was down, use of public transport was down, some school age groups were kept at homethe contrast with belarus is much greater


some school age groups were kept at home

All kids up to 16 went to school

They went for a sustainable non-panic set of measures.

Hancock goes for lockdown, to everyone out to the pub for cheap meals, demand everyone goes back to offices, then talks of a lockdown again.

Report Cider September 20, 2020 9:33 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:23PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Sep 20, 2020 --  7:59PM, Cider wrote:Sep 20, 2020 --

Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:35 PM BST
secondary schools and universities in sweden were closed AFAIK
Report lfc1971 September 20, 2020 9:37 PM BST
That’s right , in Sweden primary schools were kept open to allow key workers to go to work
That was the main  reason
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:38 PM BST
i think the schools that were closed were for the last three years (16,17, 18 year olds)
Report lfc1971 September 20, 2020 9:39 PM BST
That age group were considered capable of looking after themselves
Report Dotchinite September 20, 2020 9:40 PM BST
Dont know about the last three years but theres some on here who would keep our schools shut for the next three years.
Report Dr Crippen September 20, 2020 9:45 PM BST
They all would who work in the public sector Dotchnite. They'd shut the lot down never mind the schools.

We earn it and they live off it.
Report Dotchinite September 20, 2020 9:48 PM BST
Its true Dr. Ive met several over the last few months who think we could lockdown until a vaccine. Stupid doesnt even start to describe them.
Report Fatslogger September 20, 2020 9:50 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:48PM, Dotchinite wrote:


Its true Dr. Ive met several over the last few months who think we could lockdown until a vaccine. Stupid doesnt even start to describe them.


Not a view I’ve heard espoused by anyone.

Report peckerdunne September 20, 2020 9:50 PM BST
If you closed the schools you'd have plenty of young people to pick all that fruit and veg with no need for all that covid ridden cheap foreign labour, surely a no brainer.
Report lfc1971 September 20, 2020 9:51 PM BST
It seems that Sweden did pretty much the same things U.K. did
Report InsiderTrader September 20, 2020 9:53 PM BST
Do public sector workers all get full pay even if not working through lockdown?
Report Dotchinite September 20, 2020 9:56 PM BST
Fatslogger. Congratulations on avoiding the terminally stupid but I assure you they exist.
Report Dotchinite September 20, 2020 9:57 PM BST
Great idea pecker. After all there will be no other jobs for them after this shambles so they might as well get used to their future sooner rather than later.
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 9:58 PM BST
"It seems that Sweden did pretty much the same things U.K. did "

no, there were significant diferences - shops never closed

bars and restaurants had table service and social distancing, but also never closed
Report lfc1971 September 20, 2020 10:02 PM BST
Yes, but people didn’t go guiseppe
So in practice they did the same things
( they did go to shops at times  same as  U.K.
Report Fatslogger September 20, 2020 10:03 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 3:56PM, Dotchinite wrote:


Fatslogger. Congratulations on avoiding the terminally stupid but I assure you they exist.


I may have been lucky.

Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 10:04 PM BST
lfc all shops were open and people did go, just fewer than normal
Report Dotchinite September 20, 2020 10:06 PM BST
Fatslogger. Id say its more likely in your occupation you are meeting people with a higher IQ than I do. I hope so anyway.
Report Mexico September 20, 2020 10:08 PM BST
Giuseeppe

How is that Swedish situation different to how UK was a couple of weeks ago. UK had reopened schools, pubs & restaurant had been open for a couple of months- mainly with table service.

Maybe the difference is that Swedish bothered to stick to the rules but UK decided that a family dinner for 40 people would be a good idea, a student house party, a rave for 3000 people, maybe a trip to the seaside or a game of throw the statue into river.

UK had infections down to maybe 1000 a day, now has increased ten fold.
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 10:10 PM BST
mexico i'm comparing it to uk lockdown
Report peckerdunne September 20, 2020 10:11 PM BST
A day at the races for 40 on a coach stopping at many hostelries, to be sure.
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 10:11 PM BST
sweden has restrictions, but no lockdown

belarus didn't even have restrictions, which is why i think it's more interesting
Report Dr Crippen September 20, 2020 10:36 PM BST
The difference between Sweden and the UK, is that Sweden let the virus run its course to infect the population least at risk from serious illness.
So now, many Swedes are immune and the virus has nowhere to go.

We protected the young and strong with the lockdown, so they've still to be infected. In that respect the lockdown achieved nothing.
We won't be out of the woods until enough people have caught the virus and recovered.

We have to continue shielding our old and vulnerable, and let the rest get it and get over it.
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 10:38 PM BST
agree with you about that
Report Dr Crippen September 20, 2020 10:39 PM BST
All we're doing by locking down is kicking the can down the road.
Report Giuseppe September 20, 2020 10:40 PM BST
i'm not sure it even is a can
Report Dr Crippen September 20, 2020 11:02 PM BST
Of course the subject of the thread suggests that we could be almost there already.

If that is the case the lockdown achieved even less and the virus ran its course anyway.

The low numbers of deaths from the virus we are seeing at the moment certainly adds support to that idea.
Report Charlie September 21, 2020 7:59 AM BST
The BMJ have an interesting article on Belarus:

Covid-19: How does Belarus have one of the lowest death rates in Europe?

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543
Report lfc1971 September 21, 2020 8:32 AM BST
men die at 67 ( alcohol, obesity and smoking) ...might explain a lot
Report lfc1971 September 21, 2020 8:38 AM BST
Life expetency in rural areas in the 1990s and 2000s occasionally dropped below 60’
Report Dr Crippen September 21, 2020 9:56 AM BST
Better news from Spain, after falling for ten days their numbers of positive cases have halved. While deaths from covid have fallen substantially from their recent peak.
Their second wave is starting to look more like a spike.

France recorded 11 deaths from covid yesterday.
Report Dr Crippen September 21, 2020 10:01 AM BST
If that is the case the lockdown achieved even less and the virus ran its course anyway.

I just a video where the bloke here in the video they didn't want us to see, suggested just that.

He said the lockdown came too late to avoid peak infection, and we weren't even wearing masks then. So we might have suffered the lockdown for little gain, and if we do get a second wave that will certainly be the case.
Report Dr Crippen September 21, 2020 10:03 AM BST
^^But he says the former is more likely and we won't see a second wave.
Report lfc1971 September 21, 2020 10:29 AM BST
Isn’t it strange how in the modern world nothing ever seems to be solved, things just seem
to continue or fade away over time
Thank goodness we have a deadline for Brexit at year’s end , or do we ? ....
Report SontaranStratagem September 21, 2020 1:47 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 3:56AM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Better news from Spain, after falling for ten days their numbers of positive cases have halved. While deaths from covid have fallen substantially from their recent peak. Their second wave is starting to look more like a spike. France recorded 11 deaths from covid yesterday.


We seem to be the only nation that's going to be shut down from this unless people say on your bike and get on with it themselves

With any luck these cants will skulk off soon

Report SontaranStratagem September 21, 2020 1:49 PM BST
The media over here are just straight up lying now, bare faced lies SadSad
Report Dr Crippen September 21, 2020 2:12 PM BST
The two clowns today, were talking about new cases doubling every 7 days.

That's not true, new cases in the UK haven't even doubled over the last 14 days.

They seem to have invented that doubling every 7 days. So their projected figures are based on false figures or assumptions as usual.

No wonder they weren't answering questions today.
Report dukeofpuke September 21, 2020 3:04 PM BST
This just announced by Chris Witty 50,000 a day infected by mid October then 200 deaths a day by November
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 3:09 PM BST
The adults in the room just sent the simplistic children running things a letter asking for clear objectives to be drawn up so they they can be held to account.....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-needs-to-rethink-his-covid-strategy


Dear Prime Minister, Chancellor, CMOs and Chief Scientific Adviser

We are writing with the intention of providing constructive input into the choices with respect to the Covid-19 policy response. We also have several concerns regarding aspects of the existing policy choices that we wish to draw attention to.

In summary, our view is that the existing policy path is inconsistent with the known risk-profile of Covid-19 and should be reconsidered. The unstated objective currently appears to be one of suppression of the virus, until such a time that a vaccine can be deployed. This objective is increasingly unfeasible (notwithstanding our more specific concerns regarding existing policies) and is leading to significant harm across all age groups, which likely offsets any benefits.

Instead, more targeted measures that protect the most vulnerable from Covid, whilst not adversely impacting those not at risk, are more supportable. Given the high proportion of Covid deaths in care homes, these should be a priority. Such targeted measures should be explored as a matter of urgency, as the logical cornerstone of our future strategy.

In addition to this overarching point, we append a set of concerns regarding the existing policy choices, which we hope will be received in the spirit in which they are intended. We are mindful that the current circumstances are challenging, and that all policy decisions are difficult ones. Moreover, many people have sadly lost loved ones to Covid-19 throughout the UK. Nonetheless, the current debate appears unhelpfully polarised around views that Covid is extremely deadly to all (and that large-scale policy interventions are effective); and on the other hand, those who believe Covid poses no risk at all. In light of this, and in order to make choices that increase our prospects of achieving better outcomes in future, we think now is the right time to ‘step back’ and fundamentally reconsider the path forward.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sunetra Gupta; Professor of theoretical epidemiology, the University of Oxford

Professor Carl Heneghan; Director, Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, the University of Oxford

Professor Karol Sikora; Consultant oncologist and Professor of medicine, University of Buckingham

Sam Williams; Director and co-founder of Economic Insight

Specific comments on the existing policy path

    There should be a clearly stated objective for the overall response to Covid-19. Without this, neither the overarching strategy, nor individual policy choices within it, can be evaluated. At the time of the initial major policy interventions (the March 23rd lockdown), the objective was primarily framed around ‘flatten the curve’ and ‘protect the NHS’. For some time, however, there has been an absence of a similarly clearly articulated objective.
    Any objective should be framed more broadly than Covid itself. To place all weight on reducing deaths from Covid fails to consider the complex trade-offs that occur: (i) within any healthcare system; and (ii) between healthcare, society and the economy.
    Individual policy choices within the strategy should be informed by an evidence base. The absence of similar policy interventions to those now being implemented in the past, coupled with the novel nature of the virus, means there is limited existing empirical evidence to inform the effectiveness of said measures. This means most weight should be placed on: (i) analysing what is actually occurring in relation to the outcomes we are targeting; (ii) metrics that can be most accurately measured and reported; and (iii) robust evaluations of interventions imposed, to ensure they deliver actual benefits. We are therefore concerned about the sole reliance on ‘case numbers’ and the ‘R’ to inform national and local policies, as these metrics are subject to significant measurement and interpretation challenges (and further, neither is an outcome that matters to society).
    The most pertinent epidemiological feature of Covid-19 is a greatly varying mortality risk by demographic. Mortality risk is highly age variant, with 89 per cent of Covid mortalities in the over 65s. Mortality risk is also concentrated in those with pre-existing medical conditions (95 per cent of Covid deaths). This large variation in risk by age and health status suggests that the harm caused by uniform policies (that apply to all persons) will outweigh the benefits.
    Blanket Covid policy interventions likely have large costs, because any adverse effects impact the entire population. These include: (i) short and long-term physical and mental health impacts; and (ii) social and economic impacts.

        In relation to health, the impact on cancer is especially acute. ‘2-week-wait’ cancer referrals decreased 84 per cent during lockdown. The impact of this alone has been estimated to be up to an additional 1,200 cancer deaths over 10 years (23,000 life-years lost). Cancer Research UK estimated there are 2 million delayed or missed cancer screenings, tests or treatments. The impact of this broader disruption is uncertain. However, estimates indicate it could be as high as 60,000 lives lost.
        In terms of the economy, the OBR’s forecasts are for unemployment to reach 11.9 per cent by Q4 2020. As of July 2020, net debt had risen to £2 trillion for the first time, and public sector net debt is expected to be 106.4 per cent of GDP at the end of the year.
    Set against the high costs of these policies, their effectiveness in reducing Covid deaths remains unclear. Focusing on the UK, there is no readily observable pattern between the policy measures implemented to date and the profile of Covid deaths. Caution should therefore be exercised in any presumption that such policy measures will successfully lower future Covid mortalities.
    In light of the above, our strategy should therefore target interventions to protect those most at risk. For example, Germany’s case fatality rate among patients over 70 is the same as most European countries. However, its effective reduction in deaths is based around a successful strategy of limiting infections in those older than 70.
    Finally, behavioural interventions that seek to increase the personal threat perception of Covid should be reconsidered, as they likely contribute to adverse physical and mental health impacts beyond Covid. Consideration should also be given to whether policies that are intended to ‘reassure’, may in fact reinforce a heightened perception of risk. Providing the public with objective information on the actual risk they face from Covid-19, by age and health status, would be preferable.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 3:09 PM BST

Sep 20, 2020 -- 4:36PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


The difference between Sweden and the UK, is that Sweden let the virus run its course to infect the population least at risk from serious illness. So now, many Swedes are immune and the virus has nowhere to go. We protected the young and strong with the lockdown, so they've still to be infected. In that respect the lockdown achieved nothing. We won't be out of the woods until enough people have caught the virus and recovered.We have to continue shielding our old and vulnerable, and let the rest get it and get over it.


I don’t think this is true. Sweden has similar seroconversion rates to the U.K. with for example Stockholm and London v comparable. They also failed to protect people in care homes, so had quite a high death rate, although not as bad as ours.  What I think they’ve done much better than us, is maintain a reasonable but not too restrictive set of measures for longer, rather than relax too far and probably have to tighten up again.

I think you’re right about the notion that cases are doubling every 7 days though: they aren’t. They’ve done fearmongering before with dubious stats, I’m afraid. I’d rather they treated us like adults.

Report dukeofpuke September 21, 2020 3:12 PM BST
Heard that Tuesday it will be announced pubs to shut at 10pm
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 3:16 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 9:09AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Sep 20, 2020 -- 10:36PM, Dr Crippen wrote:The difference between Sweden and the UK, is that Sweden let the virus run its course to infect the population least at risk from serious illness. So now, many Swedes are immune and the virus has nowhere to go. We protected the young and strong with the lockdown, so they've still to be infected. In that respect the lockdown achieved nothing. We won't be out of the woods until enough people have caught the virus and recovered.We have to continue shielding our old and vulnerable, and let the rest get it and get over it.I don’t think this is true. Sweden has similar seroconversion rates to the U.K. with for example Stockholm and London v comparable. They also failed to protect people in care homes, so had quite a high death rate, although not as bad as ours.

Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 3:18 PM BST
There are so many different AB tests before you even start looking at T-cells and other reasons why parts of the population may not be susceptible to this virus.

The 'scientists' on show today completely ignored this.

They made out of that everyone (the other 95% of the population) is susceptible to virus which is of course massively open for debate outside of the SAGE group think.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 4:08 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 9:18AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


There are so many different AB tests before you even start looking at T-cells and other reasons why parts of the population may not be susceptible to this virus.The 'scientists' on show today completely ignored this. They made out of that everyone (the other 95% of the population) is susceptible to virus which is of course massively open for debate outside of the SAGE group think.


No single test is a perfect reflection of anything. The Ab tests seem to be very good at detecting previous infection, although better if they’re taken a few weeks after. It’s not clear how long circulating antibodies persist, not surprisingly for a virus we’ve only known about for a few months. It’s also not entirely clear that antibody positivity necessarily means immunity or that if it does, how long that immunity lasts. Having said that, immunity is very likely to be correlated with antibody detection (I think follow up studies haven’t show second infections in seroconverters) and I’d be surprised were immunity not to last at least partially for years but then the virus might drift enough in time to undermine this.

The T-cell stuff you seem so keen on is highly speculative. I wouldn’t expect there to be a big group of people who’ve had Covid and developed T-cell immunity to it without antibodies too. The cross reactive immunity is, if anything, even more speculative. Certainly there isn’t enough immunity in even quite heavily exposed populations to prevent further peaks of infection, as for example, are happening in much of Europe right now, although it’s almost certainly the case that such populations will at least be somewhat less vulnerable to further waves.

Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 4:09 PM BST
It’s just possible that the “scientists” on show today do actually know a little bit more about it than any of us.
Report Cider September 21, 2020 4:37 PM BST
They claimed today that positive cases are currently doubling every 7 days, which is factually incorrect looking at positive cases in England by specimen date.

I'll be generous and take the highest reported working day in the last week. 3,570 on 16/09. The last day before that it was half or less is 28/08 @ 1379.

That's 20 bl00dy days not 7!!
Report Cider September 21, 2020 4:40 PM BST
Just because someone is claimed to be an expert, it doesn't mean their work is beyond scrutiny.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 4:40 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 10:37AM, Cider wrote:


They claimed today that positive cases are currently doubling every 7 days, which is factually incorrect looking at positive cases in England by specimen date.I'll be generous and take the highest reported working day in the last week. 3,570 on 16/09. The last day before that it was half or less is 28/08 @ 1379.That's 20 bl00dy days not 7!!


I’ve already called that out. I agree with you. They probably think it’s a noble lie. Personally I’d just call it a lie.

Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 4:42 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 10:40AM, Cider wrote:


Just because someone is claimed to be an expert, it doesn't mean their work is beyond scrutiny.


Straw man alert. I’ve already scrutinised their work and disagreed with bits of it! But the point he was basing the use of speech marks over is one where I think IT’s arguments are at best highly speculative.

Report Cider September 21, 2020 4:45 PM BST
The whole scare graph was based on that premise, it's a bit more sinister than a lie imho. The presentation today was not balanced at all, Spain used as a barometer but they allowed night clubs etc so went from a more draconian lock down than us to a bigger relaxation. Whitty himself said earlier in the year that is what happens yet he chooses that poor example to make his case.
Report Mexico September 21, 2020 4:53 PM BST
I just don't understand why the guys claimed double every 7 days when looking like taking twice as long.

If they had said doubling every week , could understand was a silly mistake in a live presentation & supposed to say 2 weeks. I can't believe anybody accidentally said 7 days rather than 14.


The claim that 50,000 a day could become infected each day in 4 weeks is sort of plausible if was referring to the random tests to estimate how many infected rather than the 4,000 a day with symptoms testing positive. Wasn't really clear .

Many students haven't even gone back to Uni yet, I really can't see that helping the situation. Have a going away party with one group of friends followed a few days later by a welcome party. Repeat a few thousand times. What could possibly go wrong.
Report Cider September 21, 2020 5:01 PM BST
Yes 350K per week prediction that wasn't a prediction was based on exponential growth and infections in the community rather than positive tests. It's all kind of wrong as the indications are that the step that I laid out related to the double whammy of school kids going back and the seasonal change. It now appears to be leveling off.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 5:04 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 11:01AM, Cider wrote:


Yes 350K per week prediction that wasn't a prediction was based on exponential growth and infections in the community rather than positive tests. It's all kind of wrong as the indications are that the step that I laid out related to the double whammy of school kids going back and the seasonal change. It now appears to be leveling off.


Too early to tell that things are levelling back off and data pretty messy, for the reasons we’ve discussed at some length. I don’t for a moment think we’re going to see weekly case doubling though and if that were even a slightly plausible possibility, they’d have already been increasing measures pretty robustly. Slower increases would still be problematic though, unless they do level off again reasonably soon.

Report Mexico September 21, 2020 5:09 PM BST
This current "levelling off" may be connected with reduced social contact Sport?
Now only supposed to meet 5 others as a maximum & in many parts of UK have stricter restrictions than that.

Surely any "seasonal change " won't have occurred in UK yet, it is been really warm for past few weeks.
Report Cider September 21, 2020 5:12 PM BST
We can't be definitive but the rule of six was only implemented on Monday so would only really be impacting the figures from around now. it seems that the testing demand is falling again so I see no need to do anything more than the local action at this point, judging by the data.
Report Cider September 21, 2020 5:17 PM BST
Loads of parents are reporting schoolkids with colds and sniffles, the science is beyond me at that point, as it has been mild where I live but it doesn't appear to prevent coronaviruses spreading at this time of year.
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 5:28 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 10:42AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Sep 21, 2020 --  4:40PM, Cider wrote:Just because someone is claimed to be an expert, it doesn't mean their work is beyond scrutiny.Straw man alert. I’ve already scrutinised their work and disagreed with bits of it! But the point he was basing the use of speech marks over is one where I think IT’s arguments are at best highly speculative.


IT’s arguments are at best highly speculative'

They are supported by many actual evidence based scientists and backed up the highly rated Swedish professionals who have so far avoided a '2nd wave' their superb policies.

The two guys that presented today could not even do basic maths and refused to take questions.

Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 5:30 PM BST
What is their Plan B if a vaccine never comes?
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 5:37 PM BST
They’ll want to look at the ONS survey and proportion of tests positive, as well as total positives.

I think the seasonal change thing is really a way of referring to schools, universities and to a lesser extent nurseries going back after the summer.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 6:00 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 11:28AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Sep 21, 2020 --  4:42PM, Fatslogger wrote:Sep 21, 2020 --

Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 6:06 PM BST
That’s irritating. Was a long post.

Even the Swedish epidemiologists you’re probably referring to are very much not arguing that they’ve necessarily been successful, let alone suburb.

I asked who is saying that T-cell immunity is a proven concept providing significant and lasting protection against Coronavirus? We don’t even know for sure that strong seroconversion does that, although it does seem likely that it at least correlates with significant modicum term immunity.

Can you explain how T-cells are so important in Sweden but not in other areas with high infection rates that are now seeing increased numbers of cases?

Hence, what you’re talking about is speculation. It may be that T-cell immunity is important and provides a step up towards meaningful herd immunity that will prevent significant deaths from subsequent waves. But that isn’t known and what you’re doing is focussing on science that you can interpret to support your world view.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 6:10 PM BST
Superb! I don’t think anyone is saying they’ve been suburb.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 6:11 PM BST
Also medium not modicum.
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 6:51 PM BST
Swedish Doctor: T-cell immunity and the truth about Covid-19 in Sweden

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwQpg62Kflg



We hear a lot about Sweden’s experience of Covid-19, with the New York Times declaring this week that that country is now “the world’s cautionary tale.”

But what’s it really like on the ground?

Dr Soo Aleman has been both on the front lines of the Covid-19 epidemic as a senior physician at Stockholm’s leading Karolinska hospital, and on the research side, as Assistant Professor at the Karolinska Institute and one of a group that last week published new data around T-cell immunity.

We talked to her about the findings of that study, and how it matches what she is seeing in her hospital.

Link to the Karolinska Institute T Cell study:

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-...

Key quotes:

“Intensive care units are getting empty, the wards are getting empty, we are really seeing a decrease — and that despite that people are really loosening up. The beaches are crowded, social distancing is not kept very well ... but still the numbers are really decreasing. That means that something else is happening – we are actually getting closer to herd immunity. I can’t really see another reason.”

“I can’t say if the Swedish approach was right or wrong – I think we can say that in one or two years when we are looking back. You have to look at the mortality over the whole period.”

“I don’t think that we have more new cases, I think we are just detecting more cases”

“We found that if you have a mild case you can be negative for antibodies afterwards … in those almost all of them had strong T-cell activity. This study says that there are cases that you can have a strong T-cell response even though you have not had antibodies, meaning that you have encountered the virus and built up immunity.”
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 6:53 PM BST
The Paper:

Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4

Highlights

    1.
    Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells display an activated cytotoxic phenotype
    2.
    Broad and polyfunctional SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in convalescent phase
    3.
    Detection of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses also in seronegative individuals

SUMMARY
SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We here systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in unexposed individuals, exposed family members, and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative exposed family members and convalescent individuals with a history of asymptomatic and mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust, broad and highly functional memory T cell responses, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 6:53 PM BST
T-cell immunity in asymptomatic individuals
Soo Aleman in front of the hospital entrance in Huddinge.
Soo Aleman. Photo: Erik Flyg

Consultant Soo Aleman and her colleagues at Karolinska University Hospital’s infection clinic have monitored and tested patients and their families since the disease period.

“One interesting observation was that it wasn’t just individuals with verified COVID-19 who showed T-cell immunity but also many of their exposed asymptomatic family members,” says Soo Aleman. “Moreover, roughly 30 per cent of the blood donors who’d given blood in May 2020 had COVID-19-specific T cells, a figure that’s much higher than previous antibody tests have shown.”

The T-cell response was consistent with measurements taken after vaccination with approved vaccines for other viruses. Patients with severe COVID-19 often developed a strong T-cell response and an antibody response; in those with milder symptoms it was not always possible to detect an antibody response, but despite this many still showed a marked T-cell response.

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 6:54 PM BST
Of course the Swedish explanations do not suit the Hancock, Whitty and Vallance narrative.

Hancock got angry the other day when questioned about Sweden.
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 7:14 PM BST
Yes, I’ve seen all that research. It doesn’t say a thing about lasting immunity and hasn’t even got as far as demonstrating short or term immunity yet. As I say, it’s speculative and none of the scientists discussing it are saying otherwise. What you’re suggesting is taking a gamble on completely unproven science, which, even if true, doesn’t underwrite enough community immunity to prevent future peaks of infection. As we can see, funnily enough, in for example London, despite the persistence of at least a fair number of measures to prevent spread.

Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust, broad and highly functional memory T cell responses, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19

Does this piece of framing help?
Report jollyswagman September 21, 2020 7:26 PM BST
people with differing views to trader need peer reviewed research whereas pre prints suffice for work  which 'may' support his views Plain
Report Charlie September 21, 2020 7:35 PM BST
Getting peer reviewed research is a tad tricky if you're trying to be up to date.
Report jollyswagman September 21, 2020 7:36 PM BST
tell that to trader
Report Fatslogger September 21, 2020 7:38 PM BST
Which is kind of the point. There’s lots of interesting research and theories around Covid-19 but very little of the science is settled right now. I don’t know what the right policy approach is, although I have views about things that are and aren’t likely to be sensible. Unlike IT though, I know that it’s not clear.
Report Charlie September 21, 2020 7:44 PM BST

Sep 21, 2020 -- 1:36PM, jollyswagman wrote:


tell that to trader


IT
Getting peer reviewed research is a tad tricky if you're trying to be up to date.

Report jollyswagman September 21, 2020 7:52 PM BST
Grin

thank you charlie, sadly i dont think it will lead to any consistency from i t.

we tried though.
Report SontaranStratagem September 21, 2020 7:54 PM BST
The CDC "wrongly" put out that is gone airborne

Should this be the case then we'll know a Bio Weapon has been deliberately dropped on purpose to cause a upturn in deaths quickly

Viruses don't exist outside the body (anyway) much less mutate into airborne killers Crazy
Report SontaranStratagem September 21, 2020 7:57 PM BST
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/21/health/cdc-reverts-airborne-transmission-guidance/index.html

Beware if this esp in Cities
Report InsiderTrader September 21, 2020 8:32 PM BST
Absolutely Charlie.

We need to read everything.

That chart that Vallance put up today showing 50,000 infections a day if cases double every week was, frankly, embarrassing.

I am not sure what audience he was playing to but it made him look like a total and utter idiot to anyone that has even vaguely looked at Covid data.
Report edy September 21, 2020 9:10 PM BST
Viruses don't exist outside the body (anyway) much less mutate into airborne killers

You are like wondersobright who thinks viruses can only be injected?
Report edy September 21, 2020 9:32 PM BST
Though even for that viruses would have to exist outside the body...
Report 1st time poster September 22, 2020 9:34 AM BST
if you believe the science [ i dont, i think its airborne ] theres only 2 outcomes if you adhere to social distancing you cant spread it if your positive or negative,so if it is spreading people are flouting the rules in big numbers
some countries have one metre social distancing rules we have 2 to try and guarantee one metre,most people in streets,bars,work desks,school desks are either a metre apart or just short of a metre in normal times
patently obvious and lazy science to say its spreading in households because thats where people spend most of their time ,but they must be getting it somewhere else to take it in to household in ist place,care home is a household and we no it was taken in their from hospitals, if you removed people from hospital,s with covid in to pubs and hotels,pubs and hotels would be where its spreading most
Report 1st time poster September 22, 2020 9:37 AM BST
dangerous as it is, if as some studies show the virus is airborne, will the numbers then show that covid is actually far less viriliant than normal winter flu
Report eyeball September 22, 2020 12:28 PM BST
Eight million kids go back to school and the infections rise . What a surprise . People blaming the rise on house parties and non wearing of masks .Childrens' deaths are virtually unheard of and infections amongst the older population have dropped .

A new virus will always kill some in the population as we have no immunity . I still maintain the problem is with our immune system which is hardly mentioned by the people in charge and the health of the nation doesn't seem to be a priority .

As daylight decreases , more time spent inside together , vitamin D levels will drop and the same people in the population will die . The further north you are , the less sunlight you will receive .

Take responsibility for your own lives and those around you . Get outside , eat healthily , exercise regularly and regulate your body fat . Make sure your vitamin levels are up to scratch , especially D levels
Report Dr Crippen September 22, 2020 12:43 PM BST
Without the lockdown, all these kids who are becoming walking bombs for infecting others would be barriers to the virus by now.

So the old and the vulnerable, still need to avoid contact with others until the cases start to subside through general immunity. And not through government measures.

Only then will it start to get safe for them.
Report Dr Crippen September 22, 2020 12:46 PM BST
The main problem now with the reporting of cases seems to be the accuracy of the tests.
Report Dr Crippen September 22, 2020 12:57 PM BST
More bollox from the government today.

Why don't they simply back off and go on holiday until this is over.

We'll call them if we need them.
Report InsiderTrader September 22, 2020 1:56 PM BST
Boris has lost is nerve.

Used to be an optimist.
Report Whisperingdeath September 22, 2020 2:26 PM BST
Good grief you two guys have really turned on the new Churchill!
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