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Dr Crippen
18 Sep 20 17:34
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Date Joined: 16 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 47,339 | Blogger: Dr Crippen's blog
''The former chief scientific advisor of Pfizer has told talkRADIO he does not believe there is a second wave, and has challenged the Government to prove otherwise.

30-50% of the population already have immunity to corona viruses from previous infections.

So the 60% needed for herd immunity is easily achieved.

Considering the whole population at risk from the virus was a major blunder.

Hence the horrendous projected figures which were never going to happen.''

That's a quick summary.

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Replies: 366
By:
lapsy pa
When: 18 Sep 20 19:58
Boris is on de telly tonight saying tis the second wave.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 20:09
It seems strange that a bloke well qualified to comment has not been widely quoted.

And my first post here, had a link to the interview on Talkradio which has also been removed.

Go on youtube and type, talk radio no second wave.

Someone doesn't want us to see it. Certainly on here anyway.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:16
It was pretty obvious disinformation, although having gone to the bother of pointing that out at length, am a bit irritated it got pulled. Also offered another nice example of Crips trying to pick at a single minor issue in my justified dismissal of the bloke, based on my detailed analysis of his arguments, while ignoring the detailed analysis itself.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 18 Sep 20 20:19
No, the thread title was speaking as if there is no 2nd wave and there well and truly is,i know in your heart and soul you wish us all well but you just sat be careful out there.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:22
Brief summary: bloke was using wildly speculative extrapolations from science he didn’t understand to make a point that wasn’t remotely justified by the T-cell immunity. He had no idea of the true facts of what was happening in the NHS and also displayed a dramatic lack of grasp of fairly basic epidemiology.
By:
Angoose
When: 18 Sep 20 20:23
But apart from that, he was an "expert" Crazy
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:23

Sep 18, 2020 -- 2:21PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:


There is no "pandemic" but they are running with it because they've no choice when they've accepted massive loans from the world bank These rats the public "elected" are absolutely s*itting themselves


You didn’t ever answer my question about why you think so many health workers described a pandemic, I don’t think.

By:
lapsy pa
When: 18 Sep 20 20:23
He has a white coat?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:26

Sep 18, 2020 -- 2:23PM, Angoose wrote:


But apart from that, he was an "expert"


He’d had a job in science. He might have been a decent pharmacologist although I’m sceptical even there.

Oh and I forgot, he laughable claimed no serious scientists believed there would be a second wave, while simultaneously challenging a bunch of obviously serious scientists to prove their view that there would be a second wave.

By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 18 Sep 20 20:31
Why are the media saying we are still below the levels of infections that caused the last lock down?

We had 1000 cases a day around the time they locked down the first time, now we've got over 3000 cases a day with today being 4322 (322 Laugh)

The media need to do some "fact checking" the utter cants, can't even keep their own show in track ffs
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 18 Sep 20 20:36
Not only that but we've gone from "massive testing" to testing being "a shambles" inside 48 hours of them pushing this narrative

I feel like breaking out the benny hill theme dance ffs
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 20:37
Fatslogger is still smarting over me showing up his lousy temper on another thread, he's come here to try and get his own back.
But I'd already supplied a link to a scientific website here that backed parts of what the bloke on the video had claimed.
Which The Fats conveniently ignored as usual when he's in the wrong.


What's true is that positive cases of covid are rising sharply. They've been rising for two months yet deaths from covid are holding steady with only five UK deaths recorded on the 13 September. And the seven-day moving average only showing 14 daily deaths yesterday.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 20:39
It's a strange second wave with no sharp increases in deaths, even allowing for the time lag between recorded new cases and fatalities.
By:
edy
When: 18 Sep 20 20:45
I see *someone* got the other thread conveniently deleted because Fatslogger had proven *someone* is scientifically completely illiterate, and *someone* is now banking on people like Fatslogger not being bothered enough to redo their work.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:45

Sep 18, 2020 -- 2:31PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:


Why are the media saying we are still below the levels of infections that caused the last lock down? We had 1000 cases a day around the time they locked down the first time, now we've got over 3000 cases a day with today being 4322 (322 ) The media need to do some "fact checking" the utter cants, can't even keep their own show in track ffs


Because we’re doing vastly more testing now, so picking up a lot more of the iceberg than the very tip we were seeing in March, April and early May.

By:
lapsy pa
When: 18 Sep 20 20:45
Maybe it is only starting or has since say 1st Sept (1295 new cases)
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Sep 20 20:47
When its Rife in France its Rising here again , We have thousands on the Streets celebrating various things ,thousands marching , Planes boats in and out ,what does anyone expect to happen ?

Will there be a full lockdown for Flu ? Thousands will be lost to that .
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:48

Sep 18, 2020 -- 2:37PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Fatslogger is still smarting over me showing up his lousy temper on another thread, he's come here to try and get his own back.But I'd already supplied a link to a scientific website here that backed parts of what the bloke on the video had claimed.Which The Fats conveniently ignored as usual when he's in the wrong.What's true is that positive cases of covid are rising sharply. They've been rising for two months yet deaths from covid are holding steady with only five UK deaths recorded on the 13 September. And the seven-day moving average only showing 14 daily deaths yesterday.


Lol, more cut price gaslighting.

I debunked your supporting link too, by pointing out a) that it had more conditionals in it than I could be bothered to count and b) that it related to Asia and the Middle East, not European populations. Care to refute that?

By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:50

Sep 18, 2020 -- 2:45PM, edy wrote:


I see *someone* got the other thread conveniently deleted because Fatslogger had proven *someone* is scientifically completely illiterate, and *someone* is now banking on people like Fatslogger not being bothered enough to redo their work.


Please miss, I accidentally posted scientifically illiterate misinformation.  Miss, miss, can you delete it for me miss? I’m very sorry miss, honestly.

By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Sep 20 20:50
Not forgetting the return to a normal Summer
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 20:52
Have another go edy - that last effort wasn't very good.
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 18 Sep 20 20:52

Sep 18, 2020 -- 2:45PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Sep 18, 2020 --  8:31PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:Why are the media saying we are still below the levels of infections that caused the last lock down? We had 1000 cases a day around the time they locked down the first time, now we've got over 3000 cases a day with today being 4322 (322 ) The media need to do some "fact checking" the utter cants, can't even keep their own show in track ffsBecause we’re doing vastly more testing now, so picking up a lot more of the iceberg than the very tip we were seeing in March, April and early May.


But they shut down for 1000 cases a day and they haven't yet shut down for 4000 cases a day, even though its a contagious murderer

By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:52
About time for Crips to claim I’m upset, presumably that I haven’t spanked him hard enough to kill him or something, refuse to engage with any of the substantive points made then run off.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:57

Sep 18, 2020 -- 2:52PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:


Sep 18, 2020 --  8:45PM, Fatslogger wrote:Sep 18, 2020 --

By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 20:57
I’m not sure what your point is here. Are you saying that it’s more prevalent now, despite knowing it obviously isn’t and me explaining why the positive testing numbers aren’t comparable?

You’ve still not answered my question about why you think we’re all saying there was a serious pandemic. Do you think we’re lying, misled, confused, being paid? I genuinely don’t know what your narrative is here, in saying that it wasn’t real.
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 18 Sep 20 21:04
I'm saying its more prevalent from their own data and numbers but have yet to shut down

I don't think its serious and don't think its anything other than the common cold/flu
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 21:08
Okay Fatslogger isn't upset.

I'm glad we've got that straightened out.

Perhaps he'll stop humping my leg now.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 21:09

Sep 18, 2020 -- 3:04PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:


I'm saying its more prevalent from their own data and numbers but have yet to shut down I don't think its serious and don't think its anything other than the common cold/flu


Yes but you know that the prevalence can’t be judged just from the number of positive tests, when the number of tests done has gone up dramatically from when the virus really was prevalent.

Yes, I get that you don’t think it’s serious. What I’m asking is why you disbelieve all the eye witnesses who say otherwise.

By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 21:12
With regard to France. Stop keep calling it a second wave.

It's true the sharp rise of new cases in France are spectacular. And they took off over a month ago.
They look to be double on a daily basis compared to the peak. Yet deaths from the disease are 41 on the last 7-day average compared to 1,437 on one day in April.
Or 975 on the 7day moving average.

That's not a second wave of fatalities we're seeing, it's only a ripple so far.

All it really shows, is that more testing means more false positives.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 21:12

Sep 18, 2020 -- 3:08PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Okay Fatslogger isn't upset.I'm glad we've got that straightened out.Perhaps he'll stop humping my leg now.


Well that’s the pretending I’m upset and refusing to engage with any of the substantive points made on the apparent subject of the thread (bearing in mind, I suppose, that all your threads are to one extent or another really just vehicles for trolling). You could toddle off now, I think. Surely this is enough humiliation even for you, isn’t it?

By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 21:18
Okay so your not upset. I've already capitulated on that point.

So let it drop and I'll forgive this time.

But don't do it again.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 21:23

Sep 18, 2020 -- 3:12PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


With regard to France. Stop keep calling it a second wave.It's true the sharp rise of new cases in France are spectacular. And they took off over a month ago. They look to be double on a daily basis compared to the peak. Yet deaths from the disease are 41 on the last 7-day average compared to 1,437 on one day in April.Or 975 on the 7day moving average.That's not a second wave of fatalities we're seeing, it's only a ripple so far.All it really shows, is that more testing means more false positives.


France is clearly seeing far more cases than a month or two ago and more deaths. That it’s not many more deaths yet shouldn’t surprise anyone who followed the first wave of the pandemic. Deaths are, for about the fourth time today, a lagging indicator, following mostly a few weeks behind infection.

It’s more testing showing more true positives. That it’s more positive results than the initial outbreak without many deaths yet is for the reasons I explained at length to you earlier. Considering you pointed out yourself that there’s loads more testing, I think this is probably bad faith on your part rather than you really failing to assimilate the fairly basic points made. Could be a bit of both though, I suppose.

Nice to see a brief re engagement with the topic from you though.

By:
tobermory
When: 18 Sep 20 21:28
Wasn't there a study that indicated the testing is badly flawed and picking up 'dead virus' from people who had recovered or never knew they had it ?
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 21:36
That's exactly the problem tobermory.

You've hit the nail on the head.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Sep 20 21:40

Sep 18, 2020 -- 3:28PM, tobermory wrote:


Wasn't there a study that indicated the testing is badly flawed and picking up 'dead virus' from people who had recovered or never knew they had it ?


Yes. People keep drawing silly conclusions from it

By:
InsiderTrader
When: 18 Sep 20 21:56
I remember when Boris was in ICU and Raab was 'running the show' and talking about a '2nd wave'.

These guys will never admit they made a mistake in dropping the 'rip through'/'herd immunity' concept.

Sweden's calm approach has made Boris and Raab and Hancock (mainly Hancock) look like total and utter idiots.

Hopefully Rishi's eat out to help out scheme has helped the UK to build up more immunity over the summer before Hancock took back control of policy.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 18 Sep 20 22:14
Nick Abbot on LBC is on about Sweden now.

No lockdown and now now deaths.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 18 Sep 20 22:18
Of course. Sweden went with the herd and got it right.

Boris chopped and changed and got it wrong.

It is time to admit the error and move on.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 18 Sep 20 22:20
Why Boris Johnson needs to speak to Anders Tegnell

t’s not hard to understand Boris Johnson’s dilemma. He will hate the idea of a second lockdown, but his scientific advisers tell him it's the best way to fight a second wave. He’s not sure if their fears are exaggerated, but how is he to know? There are not very many expert voices around No10 to challenge the SAGE committee’s assumptions.

One idea could be reaching out to Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, who has just been interviewed by Andrew Neil for our new Spectator TV. The Swedes were able to identify the exaggerations in the Imperial College London assumptions first time around - and might be able to check the assumptions No10 is being given this time.

Sweden’s public health authority is well stocked with experienced epidemiologists: Tegnell has experience in the field with Sars and Ebola and has seen first hand the problems of modelling. So when Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College model was published with its prognosis for Sweden – with calculations pointing to 85,000 deaths if they did not lock down – Tegnell was able to reject it because his Public Health Agency had enough in-house expertise to spot the flaws. In the end, there was no lockdown -and fewer than 6,000 deaths.

As Tegnell has just told Spectator TV:

“We looked at the [Imperial] model and we could see that the variables put into the mo

del were quite extreme.. Why did they choose variables that gave extreme results? So we were always quite doubtful. We did some work on our own that pointed in quite a different direction. In the end, it proved that our prognosis was much closer to the real situation. Probably because we used data that was coming from the actual situation, and not from some kind of theoretical model.”

Andrew asked Tegnell if he’s saying of the Imperial model: rubbish in, rubbish out. He replied

“You have to be very careful about models. They’re not made to do prognosis, they are made to test various different kind of measures to take, to see what kind of effect they might have. Because as you said: rubbish in, rubbish out.”

Andrew then asked if No10 was unable to get a second opinion, unable to interrogate the scientists’ assumptions and see if they were realistic. “I think that’s a good question for somebody to look at,” he replied. But then he said:

“If we could have more openness, and we could have had some more discussion on a technical level between countries before these decisions were taken, I think we could have arrived at something – together – that would have worked better than the situation we have right now.”

This evening, Britain is talking about a second lockdown and Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, is wandering around Whitehall with studies and extrapolations that look a lot like the Imperial College London assumptions of yore. It might make sense for No10 to call up Tegnell and ask him for a second opinion. Yes, Sweden and Britain are very different countries– but it's the assumptions behind the models that matter. To compare notes on the basic behaviour and characteristics of the virus. Tegnell has tonight indicated that he is open to working with the British authorities: No10 could do a lot worse than accept.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-boris-johnson-needs-to-speak-to-anders-tegnell
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