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InsiderTrader
14 Sep 20 10:32
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 14,569 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
Ministers today urged people to snitch on their neighbours if they are flouting new 'Rule of Six' coronavirus curbs.

Policing minister Kit Malthouse said rule-breakers should be flagged to the authorities, amid a backlash at the draconian measures.

The drastic intervention came as Home Secretary Priti Patel warned that people face criminal records as well as thousands of pounds in fines if they refuse to abide by the law.

Professors Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson, from Oxford University, accused Mr Johnson of making a series of 'catastrophic' errors since returning to work in April, following his own battle with the killer virus.

The pair warned Downing Street's move to limit gatherings - which came into force today - was 'disturbing' and had 'no scientific evidence to back it up', arguing that it may well end up having 'major consequences'.

Urging ministers to get on with life because containing the spread of Covid-19 is 'unrealistic', they warned the government's 'roll of the dice' could tip the public over the edge and said it should be 'binned'. 

Writing in The Telegraph, Professor Heneghan and Professor Jefferson said: 'It is a disturbing decision that has no scientific evidence to back it up, and may well end up having major social consequences.'

The column slammed the Prime Minister's handling of the pandemic, warning he has been 'beset by anxieties, doubts and fear'.

And it said he has made a series of errors since returning to work in April, following his own battle with the killer virus.

The two experts added: 'The rule of six policy should be binned.

'When Boris Johnson returned to work in April after his brush with coronavirus, he warned that lockdown restrictions must remain to prevent a second wave. 

'Ever since, beset by anxieties, doubts and fear, and surrounded by a platoon of advisors, the PM has made one cautious, catastrophic error after another.

'Last week's roll of the dice with the ''rule of six'' could well be the policy that tips the British public over the edge, for it is a disturbing decision that has no scientific evidence to back it up and may well end up having major social consequences.'

The professors go on to criticise the Government's attempt to blame young people for a recent rise in Covid-19 infections, asking what the purpose of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme was if it was going to cause a rise in cases.

They say the rule of six will have a minimal impact, citing their years of research at Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, which was set up to improve every day clinical practice.

They wrote: 'At its core, the decision to restrict gatherings belies a fundamental misunderstanding of what is happening with coronavirus in Britain.'

The article, in the Telegraph, points out that 600 Covid patients are currently in hospital, compared with 17,000 at the height of the pandemic.

Yesterday five people died with Covid-19, compared with an average of more than 1,000 at the peak of the pandemic. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8730095/Ministers-urge-public-report-neighbours-breaking-new-Rule-Six.html
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Report InsiderTrader September 14, 2020 4:10 PM BST

Sep 14, 2020 -- 4:05PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Sep 14, 2020 --  3:54PM, dukeofpuke wrote:From The SpectatorWhat counts as a ‘case’ of the virus?By Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson In the course of our evidence-gathering activities, we have gone through a few thousand papers reporting studies on all aspects of the spread of Covid-19. We found that not very many defined a case of Covid, which is a sign of sloppiness when that is what you are looking for. Those that did reported different definitions and ways of ascertaining what they meant by a ‘case’. This may seem a pedantic academic remark, but in reality, it underlines the chaos that has crept into Covid-19 science and decision-making. After watching the daily briefing by the chief medical officer on 9 September, where he described his worry about the increase in cases and compared the situation in the UK with other countries, we asked the question: what does a Covid-19 case mean and how do different nations define a case?The UK government definition is based on clinical symptoms, and testing is recommended for people who are well enough to remain in the community. No guidance is given as to how to interpret such a test or any decisions. Interestingly the Public Health England explanation of the methods for counting cases is as follows: ‘If a person has both a negative and a positive test, then only their positive test will be counted. If a person is tested as positive under both pillar 1 and pillar 2, then only the first positive case is counted.’ An asymptomatic person who tested positive could have two confirmatory negative tests, but would still count as a confirmed case. But in Wales, data is deduplicated on 42-day episodes; if someone is tested twice, 43 days apart, they will be included in the case count measure twice. The UK government’s latest guidance states ‘positive test results at the limit of detection that occur early in the cycle of infection are important as these represent individuals who may go on to transmit infection’, and asks laboratories to ‘determine the threshold for a positive result at the limit of detection based on the in-use assay’, without stating what the threshold should be. If necessary, the laboratory should request a repeat sample; again, this advice is given without a threshold to guide when to do the repeat test. We have already written about the inappropriate use of the PCR test as currently used, and the delightful vagueness of the statement is pregnant with consequences. Arbitrary thresholds may be so high that the UK may be heading for perpetual lockdown, as every minute fragment and debris of the Coronavirus will count as positive. We deduce that a reported ‘case’ is most probably simply the result of a positive PCR test. The new guidance is meaningless unless it provides a clear threshold for the limits of detection. For many whose test turns up positive, there may be nothing recorded about any clinical symptoms.I’m afraid this is one area where being clever but not an expert in a particular area makes you fall flat on your face rather. Yes precision around case definitions is important and there are trade offs to be recognised in exactly how you do this. It’s patently the case, however, that lots of positive test results in March - May were associated with very sick people and that there were very few positive tests for the few months after that, now rising again, with somewhat more, although still not many sick people around. If the hypothesis is that dead virus hangs around and gives rogue results, why were there so few of these in July and August?


Why so few in June and July... not the season where people catch and feel ill. So people could have had with no symptoms then and not got tested. Now go to hospital for a hip operation and they have it in their system.

Clearly as schools open and more people go to pubs cases will increase. We know that. In the winter cases will increase. We cannot change policy everytime there is an uptick in historic cases.

We knew that in August when people were paid to go to pubs. Shutting down now makes no sense.

Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 4:39 PM BST
Why so few in June and July... not the season where people catch and feel ill. So people could have had with no symptoms then and not got tested. Now go to hospital for a hip operation and they have it in their system.

Clearly as schools open and more people go to pubs cases will increase. We know that. In the winter cases will increase. We cannot change policy everytime there is an uptick in historic cases.

We knew that in August when people were paid to go to pubs. Shutting down now makes no sense.


As is often the case on this topic, your conclusion may be correct, although I doubt it but your arguments to get there are very shaky. We were doing plenty of Covid testing in August. Why was it low then and higher now, if the cause is historical dead virus? We were testing all hospital admissions from back in June, iirc, certainly we were in July and August. If the numbers have gone up, it’s not because of more dead virus, without it also being because of more live virus.
Report Mexico September 14, 2020 5:39 PM BST
IT

Your evidence free theory of people having the virus months ago , not knowing they had virus, then needing hospital treatment, then testing positive for old dead virus just won't explain the rise in cases.

We are now getting 3,000 confirmed cases a day & random sample tests suggest many more than that.
How many people do you actually believe had old virus, need hip replacement & test positive for old virus.

10 a day? Fewer?
Report Whisperingdeath September 14, 2020 5:42 PM BST
How many people died yesterday from covid?
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 5:44 PM BST

Sep 14, 2020 -- 5:42PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


How many people died yesterday from covid?


You know that the figures for deaths on a particular day aren’t any use until a good few days have gone by? They aren’t reported in real time.

Report Whisperingdeath September 14, 2020 5:50 PM BST
Yes but I don't expect it to rise by 300 after a few days!
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 14, 2020 5:55 PM BST
Shirley most covid deaths take over 4 weeks, and by that time are removed from the stats.

Smoke and mirrors
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 5:56 PM BST
It’s complicated! There are a lot of steps from picking up an infection to being registered dead with a positive Covid test.
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 5:59 PM BST
Although it’s certainly not true that so far the large increase in cases we’ve seen recently has led to terribly many new deaths. I think deaths will go up, possibly by fairly large numbers but I think there’s essentially no chance we’ll see numbers like we did during the initial peak.
Report Mexico September 14, 2020 6:01 PM BST
Laugh they will be recorded on Death certificate as Covid.

Is probably an underestimate of Covid deaths as people were dying in non hospital locations without a test.

I you posting the smoke and mirrors laugh? You know better than all those medical statistics professors?
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 6:06 PM BST

Sep 14, 2020 -- 6:01PM, Mexico wrote:


Laugh they will be recorded on Death certificate as Covid.Is probably an underestimate of Covid deaths as people were dying in non hospital locations without a test. I you posting the smoke and mirrors laugh? You know better than all those medical statistics professors?


There are lots of different ways of counting Covid deaths which aren’t necessarily comparable, including internationally. That’s why excess deaths is probably the best measure.

Report InsiderTrader September 14, 2020 6:11 PM BST

Sep 14, 2020 -- 4:39PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Why so few in June and July... not the season where people catch and feel ill. So people could have had with no symptoms then and not got tested. Now go to hospital for a hip operation and they have it in their system. Clearly as schools open and more people go to pubs cases will increase. We know that. In the winter cases will increase. We cannot change policy everytime there is an uptick in historic cases.We knew that in August when people were paid to go to pubs. Shutting down now makes no sense.As is often the case on this topic, your conclusion may be correct, although I doubt it but your arguments to get there are very shaky. We were doing plenty of Covid testing in August. Why was it low then and higher now, if the cause is historical dead virus? We were testing all hospital admissions from back in June, iirc, certainly we were in July and August. If the numbers have gone up, it’s not because of more dead virus, without it also being because of more live virus.


The more people that get it undetected in the community the more people that will test positive for a trace of it as and when they are tested because the PCR picks up month old fragments. It is a cumulative effect.

We need to move away from binary results and get positive 'cases' split by number of cycles needed to detect any traces in the RNA.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 14, 2020 6:12 PM BST
It's not medical statistics professors that changed the way they count covid deaths. It was politicians.
Report InsiderTrader September 14, 2020 6:12 PM BST

Sep 14, 2020 -- 5:39PM, Mexico wrote:


ITYour evidence free theory of people having the virus months ago , not knowing they had virus, then needing hospital treatment, then testing positive for old dead virus just won't explain the rise in cases.We are now getting 3,000 confirmed cases a day & random sample tests suggest many more than that.How many people do you actually believe had old virus, need hip replacement & test positive for old virus.10 a day? Fewer?


No idea.

We need to move away from binary results and get positive 'cases' split by number of cycles needed to detect any traces in the RNA.

Report Mexico September 14, 2020 6:26 PM BST
IT

As it well make basically f all difference to total numbers then we really don't "need" to do that.

The U.K. Had over 2,500 cases recorded today. A couple of people who didn't have symptoms but had virus months ago but are now in need of hospital treatment for something completely different but test positive because they have a trace amount of "dead" virus is not going to Chang any policy.

To you really think government will say - forget about masks, forget about not have a 100 people party. We thought 2,600 people tested positive, but it might be only 2590.

Meanwhile a few thousand others have caught the virus but haven't been tested because either don't have symptoms or can't get a test.
The Daily infection number is higher than number of positive tests.
Report InsiderTrader September 14, 2020 6:37 PM BST
Mex, you can argue all you like in favour of Boris but the reality is people will ignore rules that make no sense. People I see out today are no different from yesterday. The interest level in Boris crying wolf has dropped massively since the solidarity in the early days back in March/April. He has overplayed his hand which is poor considering as in the depths of winter when serious action might be needed he will have lost the faith of the public.
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 6:48 PM BST

Sep 14, 2020 -- 6:11PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Sep 14, 2020 --  4:39PM, Fatslogger wrote:Why so few in June and July... not the season where people catch and feel ill. So people could have had with no symptoms then and not got tested. Now go to hospital for a hip operation and they have it in their system. Clearly as schools open and more people go to pubs cases will increase. We know that. In the winter cases will increase. We cannot change policy everytime there is an uptick in historic cases.We knew that in August when people were paid to go to pubs. Shutting down now makes no sense.As is often the case on this topic, your conclusion may be correct, although I doubt it but your arguments to get there are very shaky. We were doing plenty of Covid testing in August. Why was it low then and higher now, if the cause is historical dead virus? We were testing all hospital admissions from back in June, iirc, certainly we were in July and August. If the numbers have gone up, it’s not because of more dead virus, without it also being because of more live virus.The more people that get it undetected in the community the more people that will test positive for a trace of it as and when they are tested because the PCR picks up month old fragments. It is a cumulative effect.We need to move away from binary results and get positive 'cases' split by number of cycles needed to detect any traces in the RNA.


Ah so that will be why we’ve seen progressively more cases ever since the initial outbreak?

Your argument here fails a very basic common sense test of plausibility.

Don’t know if you saw it but I’ve already commented on the threshold of detection issue explaining why it wouldn’t solve your (largely invented) problem.

Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 6:53 PM BST
I’m not a virologist but this is also complex. The problem is that a low titre on its own doesn’t tell you whether someone has a few dead bits of viral DNA picked up by a very sensitive test; a lot of virus but a dodgy swab done (this isn’t technically trivial); is in an early stages or near the end of a significant infection or has a low expression asymptomatic infection.

Sorry to quote myself but it’s a long thread now.
Report Mexico September 14, 2020 7:39 PM BST
IT

I know there are selfish people in UK who will ignore the rules, that is why our "Swedish system " hasn't been that successful. There are people crying because they are told to wear a mask for 30 minutes in a shop. Poor selfish  snowflakes.

Boris policy won't change if the number of positive tests is really 2,590 rather than 2,600 especially as people can't get a test when needed and actually number is far higher than 2,590/2,600.

Those wanting "more freedom" are the ones who have behaved in a selfish manner and prevented the economy for being opened up.
I would like to go horse racing sometime but that seems unlikely while the selfish minority won't put on a mask for 30 minutes in a shop. Their selfish actions are resulting in people losing their jobs.
Pretty nasty behaviour isn't it.
Report Whisperingdeath September 14, 2020 9:39 PM BST
I will not be following the rules!

Do I trust The Prime Minister or The Fat Bloke in Number 10, The Health Secretary, The Chief Medical officer or The Chief Scientific Adviser who all managed to catch the virus? or S.A.G.E. ?

Will I obey the people who have come up with The rule of Six? I will not!

I will not!
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 9:42 PM BST
There are some serious concerning issues with how these regulations are being introduced. The law changing with a few minutes’ notice can’t be a good or sensible thing, irrespective of the merits or otherwise of the changes.
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2020 9:43 PM BST
Although don’t think that means I won’t shop you, WD.
Report Whisperingdeath September 14, 2020 9:58 PM BST
Laugh

I wear a mask and gloves for shopping and gloves when I get petrol but that is to protect myself from the idiots!

I will have dinner and drinks with friends!
Report InsiderTrader September 14, 2020 11:30 PM BST
Marseilles hospitals not doing great and they ban meetings over ten.

UK got a tiny number and hospital admissions and Boris tries to limit it to six.
Report Cardinal Scott September 15, 2020 12:27 AM BST
Get your arguments in order if you want to challenge Fatslogger. Grin
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 11:24 AM BST
'Of the deaths registered in Week 36, 78 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 25 weeks and a 22.8% decrease compared with Week 35 (a difference of 23 deaths), accounting for 1.0% of all deaths in England and Wales.'

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending4september2020

^

Good to see deaths involving Covid dropping.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 11:29 AM BST
"The numbers of deaths in hospitals, care homes and other locations were below the five-year average in Week 36, while the number of deaths in private homes was above the five-year average."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending4september2020
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 11:37 AM BST
That is good news IT & totally in line with what the medical guys were saying.

So the deaths in week ending 4th Sept was lowest so far. This is 3-4 weeks after number of new infections decked as at a low.
Care to offer an opinion on how many deaths we will see in week ending 9th October.

The "experts " fear this number will be higher than that number you referred to for Week36.
Do you believe it will be lower than 78 deaths.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 11:38 AM BST
576 deaths mentioning Covid for under 45s.

6,500 suicides in 2018 to put the number into perspective.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/suicidesintheunitedkingdom/2018registrations
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 11:40 AM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 11:37AM, Mexico wrote:


That is good news IT & totally in line with what the medical guys were saying.So the deaths in week ending 4th Sept was lowest so far. This is 3-4 weeks after number of new infections decked as at a low.Care to offer an opinion on how many deaths we will see in week ending 9th October.The "experts " fear this number will be higher than that number you referred to for Week36.Do you believe it will be lower than 78 deaths.


Not going to fall into the trap of making predictions and modelling Mexico. So far all the models have got it wrong.

We can only go with the data we have.

Barely any under 45s have died with Covid mentioned. We cannot ruin their lives and future mental and phyiscal health for this.

Report Mexico September 15, 2020 11:43 AM BST
IT

To put your number into perspective could you let us know how many people in UK are over 45 years old.
Seems like only those under 45 are important to you so I assume you believe 99% of UK population are under 45.

Are you able to put into perspective?
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 11:47 AM BST
The models have been fairly accurate.

I totally understand why you don't feel you have the ability to advise regarding future deaths based on current data available. I guess that is why government takes advice from people who understand viruses & statistics.


Hardly a trap to be able to understand that is a time lag between testing positive & needing hospital treatment is it.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 11:53 AM BST
Mex, in terms of expected years to live or raw numbers?
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 11:57 AM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 11:47AM, Mexico wrote:


The models have been fairly accurate.I totally understand why you don't feel you have the ability to advise regarding future deaths based on current data available. I guess that is why government takes advice from people who understand viruses & statistics.Hardly a trap to be able to understand that is a time lag between testing positive & needing hospital treatment is it.


The models have been fairly accurate.

This is where we will have to agree to disagree.

The models do not account for if you protect care homes or leave them open for instance. Without that variable they are pointless.

They also assumed 70% plus would get the virus without action. This is also not true. Look at countries like Belarus. No where near that many people were susceptible and got it.

To reduce death you have to protect those likely to die.

Report Mexico September 15, 2020 12:00 PM BST
IT
I see you haven't bothered to explain how many over 45s are in UK

The who of UK law is based on raw numbers- in a murder case a 95 year old is given the same rights as a25 year old. It isn't a defence to claim killing a 95 year old isn't really that bad.

The whole policy is based on the established knowledge that number of deaths lags a positive test by a few weeks - yet you want to dismiss this knowledge.

The U.K. had your beloved "Swedish style " system but the selfish refused to stick to the rules. How cases have increased 5+ times & is predicted hospital cases & unfortunately deaths will follow.
Yet you can't see this. Very sad.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 12:03 PM BST
IT

The models are still relevant if "only" 50% caught virus- the NHS wouldn't be able to cope- we don't have enough doctors, nurses , hospitals etc.

There is plenty more data since March & this data is used by those with knowledge on the subject to advise government.

It is a shame the selfish few refused to wear a mask for 30 minutes or thought a party would be a good idea in a global pandemic.
Report Dr Crippen September 15, 2020 12:27 PM BST
We only have to look across the EU at other countries and their figures, to see that they're pretty consistent.
They all tended to peak at the same time too.

Their health services all coped the same as ours did.

Lockdown as hard as you like, or lock down hardly at all like Sweden - same result.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 12:30 PM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 12:00PM, Mexico wrote:


ITI see you haven't bothered to explain how many over 45s are in UKThe who of UK law is based on raw numbers- in a murder case a 95 year old is given the same rights as a25 year old. It isn't a defence to claim killing a 95 year old isn't really that bad.The whole policy is based on the established knowledge that number of deaths lags a positive test by a few weeks - yet you want to dismiss this knowledge.The U.K. had your beloved "Swedish style " system but the selfish refused to stick to the rules. How cases have increased 5+ times & is predicted hospital cases & unfortunately deaths will follow.Yet you can't see this. Very sad.


The who of UK law is based on raw numbers- in a murder case a 95 year old is given the same rights as a25 year old. It isn't a defence to claim killing a 95 year old isn't really that bad.

In medical care it is long established that the young get priority for things like transplants, ICDs and so on.

The whole policy is based on the established knowledge that number of deaths lags a positive test by a few weeks - yet you want to dismiss this knowledge.

If you look at the evidence from Sweden a increase in 'cases' did not lead to more deaths. There are many more factors in play and the question is how many more deaths. This is effected by age/vulnerability of who is infected and how strongly they infected. The raw 'case' numbers are meaningless.

The U.K. had your beloved "Swedish style " system but the selfish refused to stick to the rules. How cases have increased 5+ times & is predicted hospital cases & unfortunately deaths will follow.


I find that a somewhat racist comment IF you are suggesting the British people are more selfish than the Swedish.

Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 12:32 PM BST
Deaths will go up for flu and maybe covid as schools open. For flu it happens every year.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 12:51 PM BST
It

The transplants etc. Is party due to the fact that open heart surgery would kill a 90 year old but not a 40 year old. And has f-all to do with your policy.

You are not capable to use very basic data to even attempt to make a prediction about number of deaths in only 1 months time - yet are are critical of those with an education & relevant experience who are making predictions about the future.

The selfish few has resulted in your beloved Swedish style system being changed, jobs will be lost because the selfish refused to wear a mask for 30 minutes or avoid a party with 30 friends.

UK has too many selfish people living here it is hardly surprising that the Covid virus has been "successful " in UK. The infection rate has increased over 5 times in a month, yet you seem to want to allow large gatherings & don't want to wear a mask for 30 minutes in a shop.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 12:59 PM BST
IT

what are you on about claiming that no link in Sweden between Covid infections & Covid deaths?
I assume this is some really suspect misinterpretation of data you are spouting on about?


There were a lot more Covid cases in March/April than now, this resulted in more Covid deaths than now. This is true for UK & Sweden.

Thankfully the government takes advice from people who understand medical statistics. It is a shame there are so many selfish people in the UK - is very sad.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 1:03 PM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 12:51PM, Mexico wrote:


ItThe transplants etc. Is party due to the fact that open heart surgery would kill a 90 year old but not a 40 year old. And has f-all to do with your policy. You are not capable to use very basic data to even attempt to make a prediction about number of deaths in only 1 months time - yet are are critical of those with an education & relevant experience who are making predictions about the future.The selfish few has resulted in your beloved Swedish style system being changed, jobs will be lost because the selfish refused to wear a mask for 30 minutes or avoid a party with 30 friends.UK has too many selfish people living here it is hardly surprising that the Covid virus has been "successful " in UK. The infection rate has increased over 5 times in a month, yet you seem to want to allow large gatherings & don't want to wear a mask for 30 minutes in a shop.


Mex, do you think it is more important to save a young person's life than 90 year olds?

If I had a choice between me or one of my grand daughters I would pick them to live. They have statistically more years alive ahead of them.

Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:12 PM BST
I totally understand why you don't feel you have the ability to advise regarding future deaths based on current data available. I guess that is why government takes advice from people who understand viruses & statistics.


Like IT I am not an expert Mexico.

That is why I found it incredulous that in early March I watched press conference after press conference with journalists packed into a cramped Downing Street room with The Fat Bloke, The Health Secretary, The Chief Medical Officer, The Chief Scientific Adviser and no doubt somewhere in the building Prime Minister Cummings ( you know the one who tests his eyesight by driving a car on public roads ).

They all got the covid!

I remember thinking at the why are they touching the lecterns because sure as sheite they would not have moved them themselves. Someone would have moved them into position. None of the Wise Men wore gloves or masks.

You think we should listen to them for advice on how to stay safe and alive Mexico?

I don't!
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 1:16 PM BST
IT

It never was a choice of saving a 90 year old or a 30 year old.
Just as well because the UK government weren't very good at saving the lives of people in care homes.


Covid was out of control maybe 100k infections a day which resulted in 1000 deaths a day.
Social distancing reduced number of infections, UK went to Swedish style system, the selfish wouldn't follow the fairy soft rules. Surprise surprise number of infections increased- just as those with knowledge of the subject said it would.

The NHS couldn't have coped if we just carried on, we didn't have enough staff or facilities.
Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:21 PM BST
The NHS couldn't have coped if we just carried on, we didn't have enough staff or facilities.


Hmmn, so maybe all this was to save face for the Tories because they would rightly be blamed for underfunding the NHS?

Exercise Cygnus was a 2016 government simulation of a flu outbreak, carried out to war-game the UK’s pandemic readiness. It involved 950 officials from central and local government, NHS organisations, prisons and local emergency response planners. A report on the exercise was compiled the following year and distributed among its participants.

[i]The simulation took place over three days in October 2016 and asked participants to imagine they were fighting a fictitious “worst-case-scenario” flu pandemic affecting up to 50% of the population and causing up to 400,000 excess deaths.


The Cygnus report was frank about the state of the UK’s readiness. “The UK’s preparedness and response, in terms of its plans, policies and capability, is currently not sufficient to cope with the extreme demands of a severe pandemic that will have a nationwide impact across all sectors,” it found.[/i]

Hmmmn
Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:22 PM BST
and what did they do? ......nothing apart from burying the consequences and recommendations.
Report Dr Crippen September 15, 2020 1:26 PM BST
It's all bullshine.

The UK numbers of deaths bottomed over two months ago, so did the numbers of reported cases.
But then the numbers of cases started to rise as more testing was done.
Now the numbers of positive cases are back to where they were in May.

While the very low death rate remains the same.

So why aren't we seeing more hospital admissions?

That's easy to answer.
Because the test for Covid isn't accurate and the numbers of tests has risen sharply.

So we're going on evidence that's bogus.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 1:26 PM BST
WD

That is a terrible excuse for being selfish and doing exactly what you want to.
So you won't wear a mask because the PM was ill months ago. You think you should have a party because Cummings caught Covid.

There are many scientists who agree with social distancing who didn't catch Covid- do you listen to them. David Icke hasn't caught Covid, does that make home more knowledgeable on the subject.
Report Dr Crippen September 15, 2020 1:27 PM BST
The only other possible reason is that the virus has weakened.

I'll take the bogus tests as the reason.
Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:34 PM BST
Mexico,

I do wear a mask and gloves. At the start I even wore glasses. I just do not trust those charged with protecting us. They are worse than incompetent.

They sent old people with covid to care Homes. I call that criminally negligent.

Protect YOURSELF at all times!
Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:36 PM BST
I call driving 250 miles while telling other not to even sit in the sun selfish. I call taking an eyesight test with a weapon of mass destruction on open roads selfish.
Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:39 PM BST
I have been drinking with the same group of friends since lockdown started in late March. Funny enough none of us have have covid, maybe because we keep our distance, drink outside IN THE SUNSHINE and FRESH AIR and don't have other people touching our drinks but I am not an expert so am obviously very luck not to have caught the virus.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 1:39 PM BST
WD

I also thin the government have made a few/ a lot of mistakes. The care homes was very bad , also timing of lockdown & UK borders being open is worth investigating.

Glad you follow the simple advice, especially as so easy to wear a mask (although that is more about protecting others).

We could easily of had fewer deaths in April/May , and really should have fewer infections now. The advice is pretty basic stuff assuming people can count to 6.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 1:42 PM BST
WD

Your drinking habits are pretty much in line with government advice. Keep your distance if possible & safer to be outside.

You basically seem to be following of dial guidelines, even if you reached this conclusion by yourself.
Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:42 PM BST
Glad you follow the simple advice, especially as so easy to wear a mask (although that is more about protecting others).


No Mexico,

I am not sure you get it.

I wear a mask to protect MYSELF and MY LOVED ONES.

I wear an FFP3 N95 mask. I don't go to close to others in a shop and wear gloves particularly when filling up with petrol even and particularly when paying by card. I am not an expert but think maybe without a scientific education it might be a good idea.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 1:43 PM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 12:59PM, Mexico wrote:


ITwhat are you on about claiming that no link in Sweden between Covid infections & Covid deaths?I assume this is some really suspect misinterpretation of data you are spouting on about?There were a lot more Covid cases in March/April than now, this resulted in more Covid deaths than now. This is true for UK & Sweden.Thankfully the government takes advice from people who understand medical statistics. It is a shame there are so many selfish people in the UK - is very sad.


It is a shame there are so many selfish people in the UK - is very sad.

I am sorry but by locking everyone down for months it was to be expected that people would want to let off steam when the hard lockdown ended.

It is human nature.

Sweden went for the stamina approach and maybe that is why it is lasting longer.

On masks it gives people as false sense of security and gets people used to be less than a meter apart.

Social distancing and hand washing is the longer term answer.

Report Whisperingdeath September 15, 2020 1:48 PM BST
Truth is this has been a big learning curve for all of us.

I have followed what was happening and Government advice very closely from early February.

I was due to fly to Rome for a Six Nations Match and knew it would be cancelled but the Government did not stop travel to Rome on March 13th. My flight went without me and I did not get a refund.

I got refunded for my flight from Rome to Barcelona on 14th March but did not get a refund on my flight from Barcelona to London on the 15th.

As I said before not mere incompetence but criminal neglect.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 1:56 PM BST
Good to see Scotland are now removing people who no longer have Covid but are in hospital from the list of people in hospital with Covid.

Slowly but surely we will get the correct data.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 2:08 PM BST
IT

We won't get "correct " data when people with symptoms can't get a test, let alone the people without symptoms.

The tests on random members of public suggest many more people have been infected than those booking appointments & testing positive.
Removing a couple of people here & there but missing a couple of thousand isn't getting correct data.

The data is intended for people who are capable of understanding it.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 2:40 PM BST
Mex, you are right 'cases' is a poor metric. Glad you finally agree with me on that.

Key thing is people that are ill hospital from Covid and people who die from Covid.

Everything else is just guess work.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 2:42 PM BST
England, Scotland and Northern Ireland announce 16 more Covid-19 deaths in preliminary toll but Wales records no new victims - as separate figures reveal fatalities have dropped to another low with just 78 victims last week

England, Scotland and Northern Ireland today announced 16 more coronavirus deaths between the three nations in the preliminary toll, while no new victims were declared in Wales.

Government officials have yet to confirm the final daily figure, which takes into account all laboratory-confirmed fatalities across all settings of the UK. The early tally does not include care home deaths for England.

NHS England confirmed 14 more fatalities in hospitals, all of whom were over the age of 60. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland registered one death each.

t comes as separate figures released today revealed the number of people dying from coronavirus in England and Wales has plunged to the lowest level since mid-March, before the peak of the pandemic struck.

Just 78 people died from Covid-19 in the week ending September 4, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The dip marks a 23 per cent drop from last week, when 101 deaths were recorded.

Just five coronavirus deaths — either suspected or laboratory-confirmed — were registered between March 7 to 13, two weeks before the lockdown was imposed. The 25-week low is a nose-dive from the peak of the pandemic, when 8,000-plus deaths from the coronavirus were being registered every week. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8734563/Just-78-victims-coronavirus...
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 2:44 PM BST
Government figures show deaths have yet to spike in line with soaring cases, which have doubled in the space of a fortnight — around 3,000 Britons are now testing positive each day but only 12 are dying, on average.

Top experts believe this is because young people, who aren't as vulnerable to the disease, are driving the second wave and that doctors are better prepared for the disease. Evidence from Sweden and the US — where deaths didn't spike in line with soaring cases — suggests Britain may avoid a second wave of deaths.   

^

Same article
Report dukeofpuke September 15, 2020 3:40 PM BST
From The Spectator

Do 111 calls show a surge in the virus?
By Ross Clark

Should we be looking at confirmed cases of Covid-19 to give us a guide as to how the epidemic is progressing – or at the number reporting symptoms? Over the past few months attempts to track the virus have been hampered by a very inconvenient fact: the number of tests being performed has increased hugely since the emergence of Covid-19, up tenfold between April and July. It makes reading the data problematic: the more people you test, the more cases you are inevitably going to pick up.

There is a possible alternative data set, however: the number of people ringing 111 to report symptoms.


As the accompanying graph for London shows, there is a correlation between the two sets of figures: the number of confirmed cases and number of people reporting symptoms both show a peak in April, falling away rapidly through May and June before a resurgence in recent weeks. There is, however, a big difference: in terms of numbers of cases, the second peak is nearly half as high as the first. In terms of people reporting symptoms, on the other hand, the second peak is only a quarter as high as the first. That surely indicates higher levels of testing pick up an increased proportion of cases. It also suggests that the recent increase in positive test results isn’t simply a result of more people being tested: there is a genuine increase in people reporting symptoms – although, of course, many of these will not be Covid-19, but people with colds and flu. Cases of colds and flu were bound to increase when children returned to school.

However, there is a weakness with the dataset of reported symptoms. Back in March, not only were people with mild symptoms not being tested, but they were told not to bother to ring 111 either. The figures will have failed to capture a huge number who developed a cough, temperature or headache. This implies that the true number who developed Covid-19 symptoms is inevitably going to have reached a far higher peak back in April than the graph shows.

The best guide we have to the prevalence of Covid-19 is the Office of National Statistics’ React 1 study – which involves testing a randomised sample of the population on a regular basis. The most recent figures show a central estimate that 0.126 per cent of the population were infected at some point between 22 August and 7 September. That is a sharp rise from July when 0.04 per cent of the population were estimated to be infected. Along with the 111 data it suggests that the second peak in infections is genuine, and not just a quirk caused by greater testing. However, given that antibody tests have suggested between 6 and 7 per cent of the population have been infected, the second peak must be a mere molehill compared with the mountain back in April. Unfortunately, however, the randomised tests only began in May, so do not capture the peak of the epidemic in April.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 3:46 PM BST
IT

Number of deaths & serious illness has always been the key metric.
If it wasn't so deadly & caused so many people to need hospital attention then there wouldn't be a problem.

The "models" which yor witter on about would have been different- I.e. If 40m caught virus of which 4,000 died, then the handling of situation would have been different.

Unfortunately your unicorn situation isn't reality. Cases lead to hospital trips & deaths.
The selfish people who don't care who they kill as long as they can party & don't have to wear a mask just don't understand the basic points.

IT - you keep posting here often about how the experts don't understand the data yet you can't even predict if you believe number of deaths will be higher or lower at start of October compared to start of September.

It really isn't difficult to wear a mask for 30 minutes in a shop - is it?
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 5:17 PM BST
Death may tick up a bit Mex. You would expect that. The point is I would not expect them to tick up much.

Take a look at France and Spain.

'Cases' up massively and a handful more deaths. Take a look at Sweden when their cases increased.

For 10,000 cases with over 85s we might get 1,600 deaths depending on how many susceptible people got it in earlier in the year.
For 10,000 cases for under 40s we might get 10 deaths.

It just depends who gets it.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 5:18 PM BST
* For 10,000 cases for under 40s we might get 1-3 deaths.
Report Charlie September 15, 2020 5:24 PM BST
Have you got a job IT?
Report dukeofpuke September 15, 2020 5:29 PM BST
I've just been T
Report dukeofpuke September 15, 2020 5:31 PM BST
Tesco i wore a mask id say about half werent also they have a one way system through main doors and nobody paying attention
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 5:35 PM BST
Oh dear IT ,
It always has depended who caught the virus.

30 year olds don't live in isolation to 60 year olds. They go to the same shops, maybe the same pubs , they may even have 60 year old friends or parents.

If thousands of 30 year olds have the virus partly due to selfish behaviour then is just a matter of time before other people catch virus.
Many 30 year olds won't even know thay have virus even after giving people a death sentence.

At the moment UK testing is under massive pressure. If cases increase much more then testing would be a mess.
It really isn't difficult to wear a mask for 30 minutes in a shop or avoid a large parŷ is it?
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 5:47 PM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 5:35PM, Mexico wrote:


Oh dear IT ,It always has depended who caught the virus. 30 year olds don't live in isolation to 60 year olds. They go to the same shops, maybe the same pubs , they may even have 60 year old friends or parents.If thousands of 30 year olds have the virus partly due to selfish behaviour then is just a matter of time before other people catch virus.Many 30 year olds won't even know thay have virus even after giving people a death sentence. At the moment UK testing is under massive pressure. If cases increase much more then testing would be a mess. It really isn't difficult to wear a mask for 30 minutes in a shop or avoid a large parŷ is it?


If the 60 year old take precautions and social distance or stay away from their partying kids/grandkids what is the issue?

Everyone has to take personal responsibility.

You cannot tell people not in much danger to put their lives on to protect the older people. Most are already taking precautions.

Report Fatslogger September 15, 2020 5:52 PM BST
It’s not the case that old and vulnerable people can consistently and reliably stay away from all other people, especially those who need personal care, who are usually the most frail and vulnerable of all. Which is why, as I’ve said repeatedly, the notion that you can adequately protect the vulnerable without also suppressing the total amount of virus around, is wrong. Now you might well take a nihilistic view that we shouldn’t prioritise protecting the vulnerable over other things like having pubs fully open and allowing people to party. But then make that case, not a surrogate argument for it.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 5:56 PM BST
Rather than shut down the economy why not pay more to the people that care for the frail so they can live in? Or give them PPE and regular tests?

Remember most care home deaths happened well AFTER lockdown as agency staff came and went at the height of the pandemic.

Thousands of old and frail people due every year from the flu. Do we stop young people partying to stop them getting the flu?
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 5:56 PM BST
* die every year.
Report Charlie September 15, 2020 6:03 PM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 5:24PM, Charlie wrote:


Have you got a job IT?


I know it was a short post so you probably missed it. But do you?

Report Mexico September 15, 2020 7:08 PM BST
IT

In your system care home workers either don't mix with anybody over 60 (I.e. The people they are paid to care for) or live in some NBA style bubble.
Same with doctors & nurses- are they allowed to mix with anybody over 60?
What about shopping is everybody over 60 getting their shopping delivered to them.

You say everybody should take personal responsibility, yet any tiny act of responsibility the government suggest you start to cry. Take responsibility and wear a mask for 30 minutes in a shop.

The country is heading towards a mess again- highest number of people on ventilators for months, infections over 3000 a day even though many can't get a test - all because of the selfish who refused to follow the loose rules of our Swedish style lockdown.

It really is isn't complicated to reduce infections, we unfortunately have too many selfish people living in UK.

We had a fair amount of freedom, yet decided it wasn't enough. Well thankfully the government listen to people who have an understanding of statistics and viruses rather than the loud uneducated people causing this problem.
It isn't difficult to take personal responsibility and wear a mask is it?
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 7:52 PM BST
The country is heading towards a mess again- highest number of people on ventilators for months, infections over 3000 a day even though many can't get a test - all because of the selfish who refused to follow the loose rules of our Swedish style lockdown.

Why are you scaremongering?

How many people do you think will be on ventilators, due to Covid, by say Christmas?
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 7:56 PM BST

In your system care home workers either don't mix with anybody over 60 (I.e. The people they are paid to care for) or live in some NBA style bubble.


Absolutely. The moment you say young people have to lockdown you cannot have careworkers going from carehome to carehome by public transport. IF the government thought lockdowns were worth doing and the vulnerable at home were told to shield carehomes should have been placed in bubbles.

What is the point of getting kids to stay off school and not mix and yet allow carehomes to be exposed like this?
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 7:57 PM BST
Same with doctors & nurses- are they allowed to mix with anybody over 60?

As long as the social distance two metres away like we all do I cannot see the problem.
Report Mexico September 15, 2020 8:08 PM BST
IT

By Christmas I think number on ventilators would have halved.
Unfortunately I can't see the current loose restrictions being allowed to continue while too many selfish people ignore them.
UK cut number of infections previously- the authorities know what works.

Can see more of country going into Birmingham style restrictions. Can still go to pub but on your own. That won't be much fun.
I would like to go horse racing again this year - not sure that will happen.

Still if it is too much hassle to wear a mask for 30 minutes then why bother.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 8:25 PM BST
I predict very few people will be put on ventilators for just Covid reasons ever again regardless.
Report InsiderTrader September 15, 2020 8:27 PM BST
I also predict more and more ignoring the rules and even civil unrest if the government keeps the 'rule of six' up to and including Christmas.
Report Fatslogger September 15, 2020 11:16 PM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 7:57PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Same with doctors & nurses- are they allowed to mix with anybody over 60?As long as the social distance two metres away like we all do I cannot see the problem.


Can you see any ways in which this might be a problem for doctors and nurses?

Report Fatslogger September 15, 2020 11:21 PM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 5:56PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Rather than shut down the economy why not pay more to the people that care for the frail so they can live in? Or give them PPE and regular tests? Remember most care home deaths happened well AFTER lockdown as agency staff came and went at the height of the pandemic.Thousands of old and frail people due every year from the flu. Do we stop young people partying to stop them getting the flu?


As I said on the other thread, I’m all in favour of paying care staff more. Our approach to care workers was a national scandal well before Covid, although I can’t recall many on the right being concerned about it. We also did several stupid things around care home policy, although we simply didn’t have the testing capacity to do a lot of testing of staff, patients being discharged from hospital or those in homes when we needed it. Course, we still don’t seem to have enough testing capacity now either.

I’m not sure how realistic keeping care home workers out of any exposure to the general population is or was.

Report InsiderTrader September 16, 2020 8:20 AM BST

Sep 15, 2020 -- 11:16PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Sep 15, 2020 --  7:57PM, InsiderTrader wrote:Same with doctors & nurses- are they allowed to mix with anybody over 60?As long as the social distance two metres away like we all do I cannot see the problem.Can you see any ways in which this might be a problem for doctors and nurses?


Are you talking socially or in workplace?

I assumed you are talking socially.

If you are talking work related that obviously use PPE if going within 2 metres.

Report InsiderTrader September 16, 2020 8:23 AM BST
'Redundancy floodgates will open' says Unite union

The Unite union has called on the government to say it will extend its furlough scheme or face "redundancy floodgates" opening in the UK.

Many workers can expect a "miserable Christmas" without targeted support for employers, the union warned.

The government's furloughing programme will end on 31 October.

A Treasury spokesperson said the government has "not hesitated to act in creative and effective ways to support jobs and we will continue to do so".

Wednesday marks 45 days before the end of the furloughing scheme, which is the same amount of time employers must give for notice of redundancy.

The Unite union said on Wednesday that without "a clear and urgent sign" from the government that it is responding to calls to extend the scheme, it fears that "employers facing short-term struggles will issue redundancy notices."
Extension calls

The government has been urged by MPs, business groups, unions and political opponents to continue the furloughing programme, in which workers placed on leave receive 80% of their pay, up to a maximum of £2,500 a month.

The scheme, which has cost more than £35bn, was initially funded by the government, but firms started to contribute to wages in September after the scheme began to wind down.

    Coronavirus: When will the furlough scheme end?
    Rishi Sunak: New ways to protect jobs 'my priority'

Last week the Treasury Select Committee said the government should consider a targeted extension of the scheme.

In the first week of September manufacturers warned of a second wave of job cuts without an extension, and industry group the CBI said a replacement was needed to avoid a "cliff edge".

On Monday the TUC said Chancellor Rishi Sunak should act to prevent a "tsunami" of job losses.

On Tuesday Labour leader Keir Starmer called for the scheme to be replaced.

Unite general secretary Len McCluskey said on Wednesday that a signal from the government on targeted extension of the scheme would "put a floor under struggling employers who are working hard to stabilise in the face of immense challenges".

"With our competitor nations announcing the extension or modification of their jobs retention schemes, we ask that your government recognises the need for UK businesses and workers to receive similar support," Mr McCluskey wrote in a letter to Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

A spokeswoman said Unite wanted to see support for sectors including manufacturing, aviation infrastructure and aerospace, and hospitality.
'Move on'

But in August the government plan to end the scheme was backed by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who said it was important that policymakers helped workers "move forward" and not keep them in unproductive jobs.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said extending the scheme would only keep people "in suspended animation".

The government has repeatedly rebuffed the calls for an extension to the scheme, saying that it has served its purpose in cushioning the economy during the coronavirus crisis.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has said his priority is to find new ways to protect jobs.

A Treasury spokesperson said: "The furlough scheme has done what it was designed to do - save jobs and help people back into employment".

The spokesperson said the government has made "unprecedented interventions" including firms being given £1,000 for every furloughed worker still employed in January, business rates holidays, VAT cuts and the Kickstart scheme, which gives young people jobs experience.

"We've not hesitated to act in creative and effective ways to support jobs and we will continue to do so as we recover from this crisis," the spokesperson added.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54169687

^

The economic cost of the lockdown will become apparent as the government has to stop the funny money.
Report geordie1956 September 16, 2020 9:24 AM BST
An article by Paul Waugh of HuffPost UK.

On July 21, Matt Hancock appeared before the Commons science and technology committee and was asked a series of simple but direct questions by its chairman, former cabinet minister Greg Clark.

Who is responsible for setting testing strategy? “The Government, so me as Secretary of State,” replied the health secretary. “The process is that testing strategy is then considered by the Covid-O Cabinet Sub-Committee and signed off cross-Government either there or at the Covid-S Cabinet Sub-Committee that is chaired by the Prime Minister.”

Hancock was further pushed on the point. Testing strategy is not set by Public Health England, for example? “No, it is set by me.” It is not set by NHS England? “No, it is my responsibility as part of the Government and then it goes through a Government clearance process.” The answers were clear: the buck stops (indeed the buck started) with Hancock and Boris Johnson himself.

Fast forward to today and it was clear why the health secretary looked very, very uncomfortable as MP after MP, from all parties, demanded to know what he was going to do about the severe problems faced by families in getting tests quickly and locally.

In contrast to the “moonshot” rhetoric of just a couple of weeks ago, the tone was alliteratively summed up by Tory MP Jason McCartney: “Please, please, please, before we talk about the moon, can we just focus on local community testing in Marsden, Meltham, Mount and other communities in my constituency?”

Several Tories I’ve talked to felt that Hancock was too blithe and dismissive today, and they are highly sceptical about his suggestion that 25% of tests are going to people without symptoms. He did admit that it would now take “weeks” to sort the problem without actually being explicit what the problem was or how he’d solve it.

One solution he did float however was the re-imposition of ‘prioritisation’ aka rationing of testing to those the government thinks needs it most. The NHS comes top, care homes next, and then areas in lockdown. But as I’ve written before, the whole testing saga has laid bare just how little the NHS has been allowed to drive the system - and why some in the health service deeply resent the way ‘NHS Test and Trace’ is an outsider system trashing their brand.

When Hancock opted to expand testing earlier this year, the aim was to get commercial and other labs drafted in to boost capacity. Yet in getting firms like Deloitte to run the new private sector 'Lighthouse Labs', it appears that when their ‘capacity’ was actually tested by a surge in demand, they couldn’t cope.

We still don’t know exactly why laboratory bottlenecks have occurred and that lack of transparency infuriates many in the NHS who know they would never be allowed to get away with similar obfuscation. Hancock simply referred to “operational challenges”. Is he hiding behind commercial confidentiality as it affects these private companies? If the reasons for the lab failures are complex, shouldn’t the public still have a right to know?

As it happens, NHS and Public Health England testing capacity has grown impressively from small numbers to around 120,000 a day. They make up more than half of all total capacity now. Crucially, they have 24 hour turnaround times for well over 95% of their tests. Remember it was PHE which was so maligned early in the pandemic for having so few labs, but now it is PHE that is actually saving the private sector (they’ve begged state-run labs for help with processing, the Guardian reports).

Some former Tory MPs believe that Hancock unwittingly put his finger on the problem in July: ministers set the strategy and it is they who have failed to strategise competently. Hancock certainly appears to have failed to cope with demand, having fuelled it by saying anyone ‘in doubt’ about their symptoms should get a test. Most importantly, the return to school and attendant demand from headteachers and parents for tests doesn’t seem to have been factored in at all. Add in the fact that Hancock, in the middle of a pandemic, decided to give the head of NHS Test and Trace, Dido Harding, a brand new role at the head of a merged new public body, and it’s clear why many think his wounds are self-inflicted. Harding has had a much lower profile since her promotion.

These are all questions that the PM will face at the Liaison Committee on Wednesday. He can’t deflect attention by talking about moonshots or ambitions for the future, when the here and now are so pressing. He may even surprise everyone with a detailed explanation of the operational problems and their solution.

But if not, it will fall to the Sci and Tech Committee to get the real answers the following day: it has Dido Harding before it on Thursday.
Report Mexico September 16, 2020 12:35 PM BST
IT

Do you believe the selfish people who refused to follow very relaxed rules have any responsibility to the rise in redundancy.

Or do you put all that down to the government for not allowing your free for all virus party but instead took advice of the educated & experienced medical/ stats guys.
The number of deaths & infections were reduced by roughly a factor of 100 by government policies.

We would be in a much better position if people followed our Swedish style system of dealing with the virus.
Can you believe the selfish few cry at having to wear a mask for 30 minutes?
Report dukeofpuke September 16, 2020 5:18 PM BST
From The Spectator

Pneumonia and flu have contributed to more weekly deaths than Covid-19 since the middle of June. Only 1% of death certificates now mention coronavirus, compared with 13% which mention influenza and pneumonia.
Report dukeofpuke September 16, 2020 5:19 PM BST
Sweden yesterday recorded a rolling seven-day average of 108 Covid-19 cases, its lowest level since 13 March, while just 1.2% of its 120,000 tests last week returned positive compared with 19% at the peak of the pandemic. The country’s 14-day cumulative total stands at 22 cases per 100,000 people, compared with 279 in Spain, 158.5 in France and 59 in the UK.
Report dukeofpuke September 16, 2020 5:19 PM BST
Research: Are masks the new vaccines?
Face masks may help people become immune to Covid-19, according to academics. A commentary published in the New England Journal of Medicine theorises that face masks may mean people receive a lower ‘infectious dose’ of the virus because masks filter out some virus-containing droplets. Recent studies have suggested a lower infectious dose can determine the severity of Covid-19 suffered, and even the risk of death. Data indicates that even mild Covid-19 infections can induce immunity, which is why face masks only allowing a lower dose of the virus through may be helpful, as Dr Tang explains: ‘This is after all the response to a typical vaccine – where the recipient's immune systems are stimulated, subclinically, to produce protective immune responses to combat the infection if exposed at a future date’. Nevertheless, Dr Monica Gandhi, one of the paper’s authors, advises caution in drawing conclusions from their research, saying ‘we will need more studies comparing the strength and durability’ of immunity between ‘people with asymptomatic infection and those with symptomatic infection’.
Report Fatslogger September 16, 2020 7:43 PM BST

Sep 16, 2020 -- 8:20AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Sep 15, 2020 -- 11:16PM, Fatslogger wrote:Sep 15, 2020 --

Report Fatslogger September 16, 2020 7:44 PM BST
Workplace. Point being that you can’t eliminate risk if caring for people, so it helps to have have less virus around. Even PPE doesn’t eliminate the risk. In fact, some people doubt the efficacy of masks, if you can believe such a thing.
Report Fatslogger September 16, 2020 7:54 PM BST

Sep 16, 2020 -- 5:18PM, dukeofpuke wrote:


From The SpectatorPneumonia and flu have contributed to more weekly deaths than Covid-19 since the middle of June. Only 1% of death certificates now mention coronavirus, compared with 13% which mention influenza and pneumonia.


Bit odd putting the two together. Did they break down the amount of ‘flu? Only not usually much of it around yet and rather less because of persistence of some distancing measures etc. Pneumonia is always a very common entry on death certificates, partly because it tends to be a final common pathway of death.

Report Dr Crippen September 17, 2020 9:59 AM BST
In fact, some people doubt the efficacy of masks, if you can believe such a thing.

The Chief medical officer was saying exactly that earlier in the year. He said masks were ineffective.
Report edy September 17, 2020 10:04 AM BST
and then they did research
Report Fatslogger September 17, 2020 1:36 PM BST
The problem with this, like lots of Covid topics, such as herd immunity thresholds and the utility of distancing policies is that there is an interesting debate to be had but it’s hard to have it, certainly on here, because any kind of recognition that science and evidence are complex gets jumped on to support foil hat wearing stuff about how it’s all made up and if there’s a virus at all, we should just let it rip. Obviously there are degrees of lunacy eventually heading towards sane scepticism about for example, how useful masks really are and in what contexts.

Nobody has done high quality real world trials of mask wearing versus no mask wearing, let alone randomised double blind trials (bit hard to blind people to whether or not masks are being worn). There are clear mechanistic data to show masks are highly efficacious in preventing droplet spread from infected people and a bit less clear cut but still very plausible data showing reasonable efficacy in masks reducing exposure for the wearers. If your mask is hanging over your chin, it won’t do either.   

It doesn’t help the rationalist’s cause here that various authorities, including the WHO wilfully lied about masks early on because they didn’t want them all snapped up by the public leaving health care workers short, which made some sense but like any noble lie, has caused a lot of down the line problems.
Report Fatslogger September 17, 2020 1:37 PM BST
Sorry, I do also think that some people in authority said that masks didn’t work genuinely believing that the absence of evidence to show that they did was the same as evidence of absence of effect.
Report Whisperingdeath September 17, 2020 1:48 PM BST
some people in authority said that masks didn’t work genuinely believing that the absence of evidence to show that they did was the same as evidence of absence of effect.

Spot on. The fact brigade!

More people die in hospitals than fish and chip shops fact! ergo fish and chips is a healthy food choice!
Report Fatslogger September 17, 2020 2:47 PM BST
There genuinely was a medical paper published on the risks of hand gliding based on when people got injured saying that it appeared to be safer in the evening.
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