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peckerdunne
25 Jul 20 23:16
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 39,562 | Blogger: peckerdunne's blog
UNMITIGATED DISASTER THIS, PURE INSANITY...

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Report Cider July 30, 2020 6:09 PM BST
San Diego's a bit of a trek tbf.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 6:20 PM BST

Jul 30, 2020 -- 12:09PM, Cider wrote:


San Diego's a bit of a trek tbf.


Thank god that covid knows that and will only infect US gyms.

Report Cider July 30, 2020 6:29 PM BST
There's an outside chance those three cases won't affect England.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 6:37 PM BST
No but there's a higher chance that opening gyms in the UK will affect England.
Report Cider July 30, 2020 6:47 PM BST
I don't believe anyone thinks it is risk free. I presume you're eating, the people enabling you to get food to your house are taking risks. I presume you have energy running into your residence, the people ensuring that is working smoothly are taking risks. Believe it or not, we can't all hibernate indefinitely.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 6:49 PM BST
Necessities are just that.
Report peckerdunne July 30, 2020 6:55 PM BST
Fcuking cherry picking Tories in denial, still cant tell apples from bears.

Thats a lot of fruit cider...........
Report Cider July 30, 2020 6:57 PM BST

Jul 30, 2020 -- 12:49PM, Charlie wrote:


Necessities are just that.


Yes and it's a big industry which employs people, their livelihoods you know. Plenty of people use gyms and wanted them to open again. Risk is mitigated. Do you think the country will survive if everyone sits at home unless they are involved in our 'necessities'? There's areas of the economy that the government can't do much about, but they could at least give some gyms a chance of survival. Nobody is forced to attend them.

Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:03 PM BST
I understand that you want to open everything. It's obviously risk v reward. That's the way it is and always has been albeit it with different risks and rewards. Time will tell. I think it's wrong and you think it's right.
Report Cider July 30, 2020 7:08 PM BST
Indeed but I'm not advocating people are forced into doing things they don't want to do. Anyone is entitled to stay at home if they so wish. But they should be given the option to use their own judgement.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:12 PM BST
Wrong. People can't do their own thing during this pandemic.
Report Cider July 30, 2020 7:19 PM BST
I didn't say that either. Where things are viable the measures should be relaxed as much as possible, the guidelines set by the experts and people follow them as closely as possible. There are things that patently remain too risky such as night clubs.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:27 PM BST
Where things are viable the measures should be relaxed as much as possible

Holidays in Spain are fine? I've even heard of a Tory MP going there but not for long. Must have been an expert who said it was fine.

I presume you are now defining viable?
Report Cider July 30, 2020 7:31 PM BST
I've written on here before, anyone travelling abroad for a leisure holiday during a pandemic is nuts.

Do you think any international travel into or out of England should be prohibited?
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:33 PM BST
Absolutely.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:34 PM BST
Or more accurately into the UK.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:34 PM BST
Just don't come back.
Report Cider July 30, 2020 7:38 PM BST
Viability is determined by the medical experts employed by the civil service.

Someone who left the country to join IS won an appeal to be allowed back, so I doubt your policy would stand up in the courts.
Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:46 PM BST

Jul 30, 2020 -- 1:38PM, Cider wrote:


Viability is determined by the medical experts employed by the civil service.Someone who left the country to join IS won an appeal to be allowed back, so I doubt your policy would stand up in the courts.


So you, personally, have no idea of viability but you do want people to be given the option to use their own judgement.

You asked and I answered.

Report Charlie July 30, 2020 7:47 PM BST
Bye
Report Cider July 30, 2020 7:55 PM BST
That makes no sense. Just an example would be attending live sport. They are doing trial runs now to test viability. If the trial runs are successful, live sport will be rolled out for fans. The fans then exercise their own judgement, if they want to go or stay at home. The authorities set the rules an the individual takes the decision.
Report peckerdunne July 30, 2020 8:10 PM BST
more not thought out bollox

boy 16 leaves the school, jumps on tube with loads of kids from other schools and general public, hops off a couple of stops later, goes into gym which will not be overstaffed, uses a variety of machines with other general public, comes out jumps on bus with folk coming from work, shopping etc, goes home to grandas has dinner before walking back to mums who has been at work down the local pub for extra pennies because her day job on zero hours in retail doesnt pay enough...

What can go wrong if that gym is a hotbed of covid...unmitigated disaster
Report nineteen points July 30, 2020 8:21 PM BST
well if he wears one of these new chin masks he will be fine.
Report politicspunter July 30, 2020 8:24 PM BST
It's not him we are worrying about.
Report peckerdunne July 31, 2020 1:42 PM BST
At least the snooker fans can go the gym now instead...........
Report lapsy pa August 1, 2020 10:14 AM BST
@ Cider,the multiplying of daily tested positive new cases and the "hidden" number of daily new infections look to have been by approx 500% all along according to ONS figures this morning.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 2:15 PM BST
All modelling and guesswork innit. Nothing wrong with that, but should be presented and reported as so. I've dug out the actual data, confirmed cases and sample size:

17 May - 51 - 16236 0.31
31 May - 32 - 20390 0.16
14 Jun - 13 - 25519 0.05
28 Jun - 18 - 23767 0.08
12 Jul - 19 - 31542 0.06
26 Jul - 24 - 28325 0.08

So yes a small increase, there will be random variation. One can see why they've got a little itchy but as I've mentioned a few times, the healthcare is the most important measure while infection rates are low. Whilst at the same time, trying to ensure infection rates don't blow up so this data is still very useful.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 2:54 PM BST
Apparently Scotland has 260 people in hospital with corona. 2 on a ventilator. 16 admissions in the whole of July Confused

So nearly 260 people have been in hospital with corona for over a month but not even on ventilation Confused

England has 807. 71 on a ventilator.

Pretty odd figures.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 2:57 PM BST
Scotland doing a fantastic job.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 3:01 PM BST
Do you not think those figures are more than a little bizarre. More than 200 people in hospital with the virus for over a month, no deaths and not even needing a ventilator Confused

Or do you simply wish to stick to the marxist bias.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 3:03 PM BST
??
Report lapsy pa August 1, 2020 3:15 PM BST
4 people in ICU and 2 on wards in ROI (2 days ago).

I know you can be months in hospital but agree it looks odd as Scotlands cases have been low and 30 yesterday was an 8 week high.
Irelands cases were roughly similar but the hospitalisations are way out.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 3:28 PM BST
Yes outliers are possible but those are not outliers. People don't spend over a month in hospital unless they are very ill, so the question would be why they aren't needing ventilation. fwiw a week ago the data is 287.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 3:30 PM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 9:15AM, lapsy pa wrote:


4 people in ICU and 2 on wards in ROI (2 days ago).I know you can be months in hospital but agree it looks odd as Scotlands cases have been low and 30 yesterday was an 8 week high. Irelands cases were roughly similar but the hospitalisations are way out.


Those are excellent figures for ROI also lapsy, well done over there.

Report lapsy pa August 1, 2020 3:39 PM BST
I'm delighted,there was a cluster at a pet food factory which was a lot of cases this week but touch wood they can miss this rising cases phase overall.
Schools,pubs etc all in line to go ahead as things stand,the economy can limp on as the "fear" it isn't prevalent in the community isn't there.
Of course Ireland is "easier" than the UK to manage but touch wood some semblance of normality can continue.
Following the New Zealand tactics and think Nicola doing same,she is looking for a loan of our app i believe,she is very welcome.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 3:45 PM BST
I think they are still really concerned up there that it could break out and run amok again, especially with their schools all going back next week. They have had a few clusters that at the moment they seem to have a grip of but ultra cautious seems to have been the First Ministers policy throughout.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 3:50 PM BST
Following the same policy direction as Westminster lol. I've asked you several times what has Scotland done that is materially different, you just dodge the question. But continue to heap praise on Scotland if it brings you comfort.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 3:51 PM BST
I just look at the figures, they seem to have done very well, as has ROI.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 3:53 PM BST
Ans=d that ought to teach you that circumstance is the biggest determinant of the impact, things that can't be changed by political policy. Policy just plays around the edges.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:00 PM BST
Scottish Approval Ratings:

Nicola Sturgeon:
Approve: 66%
Disapprove: 30%
NET: +36%

Keir Starmer:
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 37%
NET: +1%

Boris Johnson:
Approve: 22%
Disapprove: 73%
NET: -51%

Via @YouGov, 28-30 Jul.

The Scottish people obviously think their First Minister has done far better than the Prime Minister.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:04 PM BST
what have approval ratings on a poll got to do with anything. you're unable to state what Scotland has done materially differently.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:06 PM BST
I just look at the Scottish figures. I think they are the best folks to decide.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:07 PM BST
I just looks at facts.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:09 PM BST
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1266382178474176513

Well, the facts are that folks throughout the UK feel the same as the Scottish people regarding who has handled the pandemic better.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:13 PM BST
That's a poll dude, I'd have thought you'd be familiar with them by now.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:15 PM BST
I am, top company YouGov.
Report peckerdunne August 1, 2020 4:16 PM BST
The very last thing you want is to have to put people on ventilators, fact is doctors have retreated from that at near all cost.

It amazes me what conclusions people unqualified to do so can draw from figures, and at the same time laughable though it is, insist that they are making correct assumptions.

And then make weak attempts to portray others as knowall's............Laugh
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:17 PM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 10:15AM, politicspunter wrote:


I am, top company YouGov.


They might be able to assist you with what material differences Scotland has had in relation to the epidemic. It seems you definitely need the help.

Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:19 PM BST
No help required, they are a top company who have made me a great deal of money over many years.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:21 PM BST
Feel free to quote the material differences then. It's not a challenging request, but this must be the fifth or sixth time of asking.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:22 PM BST
As I am not Scottish and I obviously didn't take part in the YouGov poll, I would assume that the First Ministers ultra cautious approach would be part of it.
Report peckerdunne August 1, 2020 4:23 PM BST
well they absolutely did not follow Boris recommendations for a start.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:26 PM BST
She's getting her policy decisions off YouGov. That must be it Laugh

Have another go.

If Scotland has made policy decisions that have led to a materially better outcome in regard to the pandemic, state explicitly what they are. It's really not that difficult, request number 7.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:27 PM BST
I have just told you.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:29 PM BST
Do I need to educate you what explicit means, newsflash the nebulous 'ultra cautious approach' don't count. You need to explain how that was manifested in policy.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:31 PM BST
Surely that is obvious ? The Scottish Government were more cautious in opening shops,shopping centres, meeting people, wearing face masks in shops, going to islands if not a resident etc.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:45 PM BST
The death rate or hospital admissions rates have not changed in England due to shops opening, infections have actually risen since the face mask policy was implemented. Infamously the science on face mask effectiveness is incredibly weak. I believe Scotland allowed meeting other households in June, a few weeks later than England. Her policy was let England try it out first and then roll it out with a small variation if it goes well. Easy if you're not picking up the tab, and gain political capital out of deepening economic outcomes.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:47 PM BST
Cider, don't bet on politics. You are far too biased to win consistently.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:52 PM BST
haha I've made my money on specials usually but moved to politics for the last few elections, pretty lucrative too. It helped knowing Corbyn was going to get spanked, even during the so called youthquake Laugh
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 4:53 PM BST
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2247462-scotland-could-eliminate-the-coronavirus-if-it-werent-for-england/

Scotland could eliminate the coronavirus – if it weren't for England

...
Then the paths taken by Scotland and England began to diverge. Two days after the national lockdown began, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon created a scientific advisory group for Scotland to supplement the advice from the UK-wide Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. “That’s probably when you started seeing more divergence,” says Sridhar.

“We’ve stuck to our principles of old-fashioned, traditional, evidence-based contact tracing”
Scotland has been slower to relax lockdown than England and has done so in a step-by-step way, so that each change’s effects can be measured. This differs from England’s rapid relaxation, says Sridhar.

Scotland has also been more successful at building up testing and contact tracing, without banking on the UK government’s much-delayed app. “We’ve stuck to our principles of old-fashioned, traditional, evidence-based contact tracing,” says Mark.

Two other factors have contributed to Scotland’s relative success, says Sridhar. The first is clear messaging. On 10 May, the UK government changed its “stay at home” slogan to “stay alert”, but Scotland stuck to the original line. It has since switched to “stay safe”.

What’s more, “there is a very high level of trust in the Scottish government and in Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership”, says Sridhar. According to YouGov, as of 1 May, 74 per cent of Scottish people approved of their government’s handling of the pandemic and 71 per cent were confident in Nicola Sturgeon’s decisions. In contrast, a June poll found that 50 per cent of British people disapproved of Johnson and only 43 per cent approved of him.


...
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:53 PM BST
Talk of bias and someone quotes the new scientist LaughLaugh
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:56 PM BST
And they quote polls, you couldn't make it up LaughLaugh
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 4:56 PM BST
I look forward to seeing your article in New Scientist telling them they are wrong.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 4:58 PM BST
Have you seen me quote from right wing biased sources (there aren't many tbf)? I only quote from largely independent sources like the ONS.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 4:58 PM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 10:52AM, Cider wrote:


haha I've made my money on specials usually but moved to politics for the last few elections, pretty lucrative too. It helped knowing Corbyn was going to get spanked, even during the so called youthquake


One of my best ever events was the 2017 General election when Corbyn did rather well. Then again, I am not biased.

Report Charlie August 1, 2020 4:59 PM BST
Cider • August 1, 2020 4:26 PM BST
If Scotland has made policy decisions that have led to a materially better outcome in regard to the pandemic, state explicitly what they are. It's really not that difficult, request number 7.

My first request: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:02 PM BST
Devi Sridhar is a raging lefty. That's like quoting Farage explaining why Brexit is a good idea.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:04 PM BST
Cider, calm down. We are not all as biased as yourself.
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:05 PM BST
My second request: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:06 PM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 11:05AM, Charlie wrote:


My second request: what is wrong with what NS said?


No idea, tell us all.

Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:07 PM BST
That was directed at Cider.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:07 PM BST
In 2020, Sridhar advised the Scottish government on how to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:07 PM BST
lol
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:08 PM BST
My third request to Cider: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:08 PM BST
Frankly, she is impressive, eloquent, calm , confident. An inspiring leader.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:11 PM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 11:08AM, Charlie wrote:


My third request to Cider: what is wrong with what NS said?


Are you an idiot? She was advising the scottish government. What do you think she's going to say. 'We waited to see if it went wrong in England, and when it didn't we rolled out the policy a few weeks later, not exactly the same though so it didn't look like we were copying and we still got paid'

Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:11 PM BST
My fourth request to Cider: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:13 PM BST
I'm not going to reply any further, are you feeling a little hurt for your chum politicspunter and copying me from upthread lol
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:14 PM BST
My fifth request to Cider: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:16 PM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 11:13AM, Cider wrote:


I'm not going to reply any further, are you feeling a little hurt for your chum politicspunter and copying me from upthread lol


He is probably feeling sorry for you.

Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:18 PM BST
It's the sincerest form of flattery, apparently.
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:19 PM BST
My sixth request to Cider: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:24 PM BST
Charlie, he has run away with his tail between his legs. He has been humiliated enough for today by the looks of it.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:27 PM BST
As if, I thought you had gone off to your Sturgeon shrine for a prayer or two.
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:28 PM BST
My seventh request to Cider: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:29 PM BST
Every day you appear on here Cider, you are showing how biased you are. You are wasting your time betting on politics as you are going to lose all your money.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:31 PM BST
You've already said that. Don't go all sleepy joe on us.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:34 PM BST
You are showing your bias again.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:45 PM BST
I don't believe I've ever claimed not to have political bias in my personal views. That doesn't mean I can't analyse data independently though, or criticise my own 'side' when it's warranted, or indeed defend people from opposing sides. That's a bit different to the Boris Derangement Syndrome and Nicola worshiping exhibited by many on here, yourself included.
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 5:46 PM BST
So let's get this right.

Cider • August 1, 2020 4:26 PM BST
If Scotland has made policy decisions that have led to a materially better outcome in regard to the pandemic, state explicitly what they are. It's really not that difficult, request number 7.


I post an article from New Scientist saying just that.

Cider • August 1, 2020 4:53 PM BST
Talk of bias and someone quotes the new scientist

New Scientist is the world's most popular science and technology magazine and has been going since 1956. There is no evidence of any bias but Cider knows best:

Cider • August 1, 2020 4:58 PM BST
Have you seen me quote from right wing biased sources (there aren't many tbf)?


He then goes onto attack one of the people quoted in New Scientist
Cider • August 1, 2020 5:02 PM BST
Devi Sridhar is a raging lefty. That's like quoting Farage explaining why Brexit is a good idea.

Devi Sridhar is a Professor and Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh

So on the one hand we have NS being a right wing biased source and Devi being a raging lefty. Why a so called right wing magazine would publish anything from a so called raging lefty is deserving of comment from Cider.

My eighth request to Cider: what is wrong with what NS said?
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:46 PM BST
Give it up, you are so biased you are wasting your time on a politics betting forum.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:50 PM BST
haha there you go again. I don't need your permission to post on a forum, or you to decide whether it's worth my time. If you're trying to influence me into not posting, you're going to be disappointed.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 5:52 PM BST
Post all you want, I am simply telling you not to bet on politics, save your money.
Report Cider August 1, 2020 5:55 PM BST
Pretty sure you referred to me posting on the forum. I'll continue to do that, and making money out of politics when there are suitable markets.
Report Charlie August 1, 2020 6:07 PM BST
Cider, surely you're not going to wimp out and not answer my questions.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 6:21 PM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 11:55AM, Cider wrote:


Pretty sure you referred to me posting on the forum. I'll continue to do that, and making money out of politics when there are suitable markets.


You won't make any money, you are too biased.

Report Charlie August 2, 2020 3:15 PM BST
I'm a patient man Cider and can wait for your devastating and witty riposte to my questions.
Report Charlie August 3, 2020 6:18 PM BST
I see you around on other threads Cider so still waiting.
Report peckerdunne August 3, 2020 6:44 PM BST
pontificating
Report peckerdunne October 12, 2020 6:47 PM BST
peckerdunne 25 Jul 20 23:16 Joined: 26 Apr 12 | Topic/replies: 34,951 | Blogger: peckerdunne's blog
UNMITIGATED DISASTER THIS, PURE INSANITY...

1.01


pubs bookies also as 'we' predicted

Who knew,

HA ANYONE WITH A BRAIN
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