A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings

NEW:
@IpsosUK
polling in Scotland shows dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson at an all-time high; 83% are now dissatisfied with his performance with just 12% satisfied.

Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

NO: 46% (+3)
YES: 45% (-5)
Undecideds: 8% (+2)

Undecideds Excluded:

NO: 50% (+4)
YES: 50% (-4)

Via @IpsosScotland, On 23-29 May,
Changes w/ 3-9 February.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (-4)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
REF: 4% (+2)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 1 June,
Changes w/ 29 May.

That previous Redfield Wilton poll looked like an outlier.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (=)
CON: 32% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@techneUK
, 31 May - 1 June.
Changes w/ 25-26 May.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
3m
For which OTHER party could current Conservative voters see themselves voting? (5 June)

None 48% (-11)
Labour 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+5)
Independent 8% (+1)
Reform UK 7% (+3)
Don't know 13% (+3)

Changes +/- 29 May

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
3m
Westminster Voting Intention (8-9 June):

Labour 40% (+2)
Conservative 32% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
Green 5% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 5 June

How long can the tory party sustain these appalling opinion poll figures?

I make that giving Labour on 321 seats. Not quite an overall majority but certainly enough to form a government.

62% for the lefties. (plus plaid)

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (-1)
CON: 33% (+1)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@techneUK
, 8-9 Jun.
Changes w/ 31 May - 1 Jun.

Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone (Sevenoaks) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.4%
CON: 45.6%

Previously elected unopposed.

Votes cast: 631

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.


Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
2h
This is basically the most Tory place in the world and they still lost it.

Mattishall (Breckland) council by-election result:

CON: 41.9% (-4.7)
IND: 37.8% (+37.8)
LAB: 20.2% (-5.2)

No other Ind (-27.9) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,285

Conservative HOLD.

Just!

Southgate (Crawley) council by-election result:

LAB: 50.1% (+2.2)
CON: 42.2% (+3.7)
GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)

No LDem (-13.5) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,872

Labour HOLD.

Highest % for the Lib Dems that we've recorded.

Westminster Voting Intention (12 June):

Labour 39% (-1)
Conservative 32% (–)
Liberal Democrat 15% (+2)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-2)
Other 3% (+1)

Changes +/- 8 June

https://t.co/kvQdY3wyuK


Looks like a shift to the left again.

LibDems will be pleased with that poll.

Lib Dems benefitting from lack of national scrutiny currently...

In many places they have a reputation for doing  a very good job at local level but even as someone who's natural voting intent is in their direction it feels a number that won't be sustainable in an election run up barring some lesser known figures rising through the ranks a bit...easier said than done with such limited exposure...

A lot of flex between both moderate and principled Conservative supporters (they do exist) and the Lib Dem vote for me but if Boris stays in office I guess a coalition of the Lab/Libs not inconceivable..

In fact I would go so far as to say it is a very likely outcome.

I make that poll...

Labour 320
Con 235
SNP 52
LibDem 19
Plaid Cymru 5
Green 1
N.Ireland 18

Two things that play against LibDems being coalition partners are the previous mentioned lack of current credibility as a big national player in terms of names ...this is a weak group by historical standards of known key party members if you play back to the origins of the party and beyond..
last time they faded badly when it mattered most... a lot of people barely follow politics outside of general election build ups and the polarisation is always more likely around that time...
clearly that potentially feeds Labour as well but more likely returns to the Conservatives (purely imo)...

and of course the damage to the party the last time they went that route - all be it with the Conservatives but it could easily damage the other side of their support base and this could feed reluctance.

If Labour are short of an overall majority but have one with a coalition, the LibDems will be their first port of call unless they are only half a dozen or so short and get a confidence and supply type agreement with some Northern Ireland parties such as the Alliance and SDLP.

+ Green!

Yes, possibly but they would probably wish to avoid that as that may mean a former coalition and giving Caroline Lucas a cabinet seat.

I reckon they would love to have her in cabinet.

Westminster Voting Intention (Red Wall):

LAB: 46% (+8)
CON: 36% (-11)
REF: 6% (-1)
LDM: 5% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+3)
PLC: 2% (+1)
OTH: 2% (=)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 12-13 June,
Changes w/ GE2019.

Note that Green vote. We know where that will likely go in the event of a close call or even Greens not fielding a constituency candidate.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
· Jun 9
What is the ‘Red Wall’?

The Red Wall are the 40 historically Labour constituencies that the Conservatives won in 2019 (plus Hartlepool).

Labour must win these seats back if they are to be in Government again.

Follow us @RedfieldWilton if you want to see Red Wall polling!  twitter.com/RedfieldWilton…

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (-2)
CON: 34% (+3)
LDM: 10% (-1)
SNP: 4% (=)
GRN: 4% (+1)

Via
@SavantaComRes
, 10-12 Jun.
Changes w/ 27-29 May.

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
35m
Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (15/06):

LAB: 307 (+105) - 38.9%
CON: 243 (-122) - 33.3%
SNP: 49 (+1) - 3.9%
LDM: 24 (+13) - 12.2%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 5.5%
RFM: 0 (=) - 3.2%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.4%

LAB 19 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour/LibDem coalition.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42% (+3)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-3)
GRN: 4% (-2)

via @RedfieldWilton, 15 Jun
Chgs. w/ 12 Jun



Tough times for pollsters, think this had
slightly different question,

Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study

http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2022/06/15/is-there-a-mandate-for-indyref2-evidence-from-the-scottish-election-study/
.

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (15-16 June)

Con: 33% (+1 from 8-9 June)
Lab: 39% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 10% (-1)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 4% (-1)
Reform UK: 4% (+1)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/17/voting-intention-con-33-lab-39-15-16-june?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (=)
CON: 33% (=)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@techneUK
, 15-16 Jun.
Changes w/ 8-9 Jun.

Brede and Udimore (Rother) council by-election result:

CON: 61.4% (+21.5)
LDEM: 38.6% (+30.9)

No Ind (-34.3), Lab (-10.3) and UKIP (-7.8) as prev.

Votes cast: 690

Conservative HOLD.

No clear damage to the tories there.

Franche and Habberley North (Wyre Forest) council by-election result:

CON: 45.2% (+25.4)
LAB: 35.9% (+16.1)
LDEM: 19.0% (+9.2)

No Health Concern (-30.1), UKIP (-10.6) and Grn (-10.0) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,829

Conservative GAIN from Health Concern.

An impressive tory gain!

Leamington Clarendon (Warwick) council by-election result:

LAB: 48.9% (+14.4)
LDEM: 28.1% (-1.3)
CON: 16.9% (-0.6)
GRN: 5.0% (-7.2)
UKIP: 1.1% (-5.2)

Votes cast: 2,176

Labour HOLD.

Copt Hill (Sunderland) deferred council election result:

LAB: 44.5% (-1.6)
IND: 27.8% (+27.8)
CON: 17.6% (+4.9)
GRN: 7.3% (-3.0)
LDEM: 2.8% (+2.8)

No other Ind (-31.0) as prev.

Votes cast: 2,178

Labour HOLD

Independents do well in the North East.

Survation.
@Survation
·
1h
NEW - Westminster Voting Intention

LAB 41% (-1)
CON 34% (+1)
LD 10% (+1)
SNP 4% (-)
GRN 3% (-1)
OTH 7% (-1)

2053 UK adults aged 18+ online, 10th June '22. Changes w/ April 29 ‘22

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (-2)
CON: 33% (-1)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
REF: 5% (+2)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 19 June,
Changes w/ 15 June.

There is confusion among the public on Labour's stance on the rail strikes

28% - think the party support them
8% - think they oppose them
21% - think neither
43% - don't know



Yougov

Interesting poll.

28% - think the party support them

Daily Mail/Daily Express readers.

How well Brits think the govt is handling… (net)

Inflation -64
Immigration -62
Economy -54*
NHS -51
Housing -49
Tax -47
Transport -36*
Benefits -36
Crime -35
Brexit -33
Environment -21
Education -16
Unemployment -5
Defence +13
Terrorism +29

*Lowest since tracker began Jun 2019


You gov

Polling from @SavantaComRes: 58% of public say rail strikes this week are justified, 34% say they are not

66% say government have not done enough to prevent the strikes

You gov from 2018,as Spanish police threaten to fine tourists
for urinating outside of toilets.


Many Brits have urinated in... unconventional locations
Desperation means that many Brits have sometimes had to relieve themselves in unconventional locations. Like the lady in the Dutch capital, 29% of Brits have taken an outdoor pee in an urban area, although men are much more likely to have done so than women (46% vs 13%).

Four in ten Brits (38%) have at some point done as the judge recommended and used the opposite gender’s restrooms (and in this case, women are more likely to have done so than men at 42% vs 34%). A further 77% have made use of facilities designed for the disabled.

Laziness seems to be responsible for some of the other locations Britons have taken a whizz. More than half of Brits (54%) have peed in the shower, 21% in a bottle and 12% in the sink of their own home. Nor do some Brits seem to have an aversion weeing in a body of water they are currently occupying – 48% have peed in the sea, 22% the bath and 20% a swimming pool.

Our research also shows that 6 in 10 Britons think workers have too little power in Britain today. Perhaps not surprising then that a similar number told us earlier that they sympathise with striking railway workers.

@IpsosUK

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 36% (-2)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDM: 13% (=)
GRN: 5% (-3)
SNP: 4% (+1)
RFM: 4% (+1)

Via
@Kantar_UKI
, 16-20 Jun.
Changes w/ 19-23 May.

POLL: Westminster Voting Intention

LAB: 42% (+2)
CON: 31% (-3)
LD: 10% (-)
GRN: 5% (+1)
SNP: 4% (-)

Via
@SavantaComRes
, 17-19 Jun
Changes w/ 10-12 Jun

Bush Fair (Harlow) council by-election result:

LAB: 47.1% (+2.6)
CON: 38.2% (-6.5)
GRN: 8.6% (+1.0)
HAP: 6.0% (+6.0)

Votes cast: 1,261

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

Highley (Shropshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.5% (+54.5)
CON: 24.1% (-9.5)
LAB: 20.7% (+7.3)
GRN: 0.8% (+0.8)

Votes cast: 1,157

No Ind (-53.0) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent.

Hindhead (Waverley) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.6% (+7.9)
CON: 45.4% (-1.2)

Votes cast: 983

No Lab (-6.8) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

Looking like a real stinker of a night for the tories.

Not huge swings, sure tories would love
similar in by elections for parliament!

Port Talbot (Neath Port Talbot) council election result:

LAB: 58.1%
PC: 23.3%
IND: 15.6%
GRN: 2.9%

Labour HOLD (X3).

Lab previously elected unopposed.

New Malden Village (Kingston upon Thames) council election result:

LDEM: 32.8%
GRN: 23.4%
RES: 19.5%
CON: 12.6%
LAB: 11.7%

Liberal Democrat WIN (X3)

New boundaries.

Tiverton & Honiton parliamentary by-election result

LDEM: 52.9% (+38.1)
CON: 38.5% (-21.7)
LAB: 3.7% (-15.9)
GRN: 2.5% (-1.3)
REF: 1.1% (+1.1)
UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

ANALYSIS: Labour won Wakefield by-election after a 12 pt vote swing from Tories to Labour.

If replicated on national voting stage, Labour would win an overall majority.





Overlooks mechanisms of yesterday's vote swap

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 37% (+1)
CON: 34% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 22 - 24 Jun

Mike smithson


Terrible polling for Johnson and good for Starmer from Opinium.

If you were forced to choose, which of these would you prefer?

A LAB government led by Keir Starmer: 46%
A CON government led by  Johnson: 35%

obviously you won't get as much tactical voting at a general election but you have to think opinion polls will still underestimate the effect. very likely the next election will become get the tories out at any cost election especially in the unlikely event johnson is still the leader

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (=)
CON: 34% (+1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-1)
REF: 3% (-2)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 26 June,
Changes w/ 19 June.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
24m
Tied highest % to say 'incompetent' that we've recorded.

Government Competency Rating (26 June):

Incompetent: 54% (+5)
Competent: 20% (+1)
Net: -34% (-4)

Changes +/- 19 June

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-26-june-2022/

where the hell have they found the 20% from ?

Staunch supporters.

Must be near as low as it gets, 19% previous.


A bit like football markings out of 10 but nobody
gets less than 4.

True, how much less than that can it go?

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 39% (-)
CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+2)
REF: 4% (-)

via @YouGov, 22 - 23 Jun
Chgs. w/ 16 Jun

Lib dem 9!

Bit of a surprise there

@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps
·
1h
Lindsay Hoyle’s daughter Emma Fox is on 3-strong shortlist when Lab in Warrington Sth (Con maj 2,010) pick cand next Monday, 41 yrs after grandfather Doug (now Lord) Hoyle won Warrington at famous 1981 by-election.  So we could soon see 3 generations of Hoyles in Parliament.

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
1h
Lib Dem Lead over Greens by Pollster:

Redfield: +11%
Kantar: +8%
Techne: +8%
Survation: +7%
Opinium: +5%
YouGov: +1%

Red Wall Voting Intention:

LAB: 46% (=)
CON: 35% (-1)
LDM: 8% (+3)
GRN: 4% (=)
REF: 3% (-3)
PLC: 1% (-1)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 26-27 June,
Changes w/ 12-13 June.

Lead grows to eleven.

Smarkets News & Politics
@SmarketsPol
·
4m
Smarkets odds suggest a 59% chance that Scotland would vote for independence in a 2023 referendum (though it's worth bearing in mind that this includes the possibility of an unauthorised referendum being boycotted by unionists).

WILL LLOYD
@willgeorgelloyd
·
5h
The Greens got 2% in Wakefield 2.5% in Tiverton, I think we can now officially say that the YouGov Green figure is inflated to an extent that drastically hinders Labour’s lead.

That should be worrying for the Tories because come GE time, that 8% will flock over to Labour.

I have to agree, especially in battleground constituencies.

yep when it comes to the crunch people by nature want to be on winning side if at all possible. principles and values which may be espoused in public are easily discarded in the privacy of the voting booth

Westminster Voting Intention (Scotland):

SNP: 45% (=)
LAB: 25% (+6)
CON: 18% (-7)
LDM: 8% (-2)

Via @SavantaComRes, 23-28 Jun.
Changes w/ GE2019.

New Scottish Independence poll, ComRes 23 - 28 Jun (changes vs 26 Apr - 3 May):

No ~ 46% (-1)
Yes ~ 44% (-1)
Don't Know ~ 10% (+3)

Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
No ~ 51% (nc / -4)
Yes ~ 49% (nc / +4)

Source
@TheScotsman
: https://scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-majority-of-scots-a...

New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 23 - 28 Jun (changes vs 26 Apr - 3 May):

List:
SNP ~ 33% (+2)
Lab ~ 24% (+1)
Con ~ 20% (+2)
Grn ~ 13% (-1)
LD ~ 8% (-2)
Alba ~ 2% (-1)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 46% (nc)
Lab ~ 25% (nc)
Con ~ 18% (nc)
LD ~ 8% (+1)

All parties can take something from these polls. Labour have grabbed a bigger share of the unionist vote and seem to be holding on to it. The tories , although having lost a lot of ground, appear to have stopped the rot. The SNP figures are rock solid and consistent.

Latest Westminster voting intention (28-29 June)

Con: 33% (-1 from 22-23 June)
Lab: 36% (-3)
Lib Dem: 13% (+4)
Green: 6% (-2)
Reform UK: 3% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)

You gov.




Polling all over place on lib dems.. I guess
as folks consider tactical voting.

Yes, and not just the usual point here and there.

Westminster Voting Intention (29-30 June):

Labour 40% (-1)
Conservative 32% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 13% (-2)
Green 5% (+1)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Other 2% (+1)

Changes +/- 26 June

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-42

Berwick Hills & Pallister (Middlesbrough) Result:

LAB: 56.8% (+26.5)
IND: 32.1% (New)
CON: 8.3% (+2.8)
LDM: 1.7% (New)
GRN: 1.1% (New)

No IND (-64.2) as prev.
LAB GAIN from Independent.

Cleveleys Park (Wyre) Result:

CON: 53.7% (-9.0)
LAB: 46.3% (+9.0)

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2019.

This is in the battleground constituency Blackpool North.

Ollerton (Newark & Sherwood) council by-election result:

LAB: 64.9% (+0.6)
CON: 26.7% (-9.0)
IND: 8.4% (+8.4)

Votes cast: 1,482

Labour HOLD.

Fazakerley (Liverpool) council by-election result:

LAB: 57.5% (-25.6)
IND: 26.9% (+26.9)
LDEM: 12.2% (+8.2)
GRN: 3.3% (-1.0)

No Con (-6.6) and Lib (-1.8) as prev.

Votes cast: 2,372

Labour HOLD.

Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 57.1% (+57.1)
CON: 31.5% (-39.5)
LAB: 5.0% (-23.9)
SDP: 3.7% (+3.7)
YRK: 2.7% (+2.7)

Votes cast: 3,416

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
11:49 PM · Jun 30, 2022

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (+2)
CON: 30% (-3)
LDM: 15% (+3)

Via
@IpsosUK
, On 22-29 June,
Changes w/ 11-17 May.

Lib dems in Brid, lol.

Midway (South Derbyshire) council by-election result:

LAB: 52.6% (+14.8)
CON: 47.4% (+9.1)

No UKIP (-23.9) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,140

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

Bernwood (Buckinghamshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 38.7% (+21.4)
GRN: 34.4% (-3.9)
CON: 24.1% (-9.8)
LAB: 2.8% (-7.7)

Votes cast: 2,996

Previous election result (multi-member): Grn, Con*, Con

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

New poll from @IpsosUK:

Labour: 41% (+2)
Cons: 30% (-3)
LibDem: 15% (+3)

(Changes since mid-May)

Oof.

A real stinker of a night for the tories and now that Ipsos poll to put the boot in.

Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (30/06):

LAB: 314 (+112) - 39.2%
CON: 236 (-129) - 32.4%
SNP: 48 (=) - 3.9%
LDM: 26 (+15) - 12.9%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.8%
GRN: 1 (=) - 5.4%
RFM: 0 (=) - 3.3%
IND: 1 (+1) - 2.1%

LAB 12 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

South Croydon (Croydon) council by-election result:

CON: 42.9% (+2.9)
LAB: 27.0% (-2.1)
LDEM: 14.7% (+0.6)
GRN: 8.8% (-5.5)
IND (Pelling): 5.2% (+5.2)
UKIP: 0.8% (-1.6)
IND (Samuel): 0.6% (+0.6)

Votes cast: 3,045

Conservative HOLD.

Tories drop to third place amongst Graduates

- @IpsosNewsPolls

LAB 40%
LDs 25%
CON 20%
GRN 8%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/02/conservatives-set-lose-26-their-64-lib-dem-battleg
.

Tories under immense pressure in the South of England.

YouGov MRP (CON/LD Marginals):

CON: 38 (-26)
LDM: 24 (+24)
LAB: 2 (+2)

Via
@YouGov
, 15-29 Jun.
Changes w/ GE2019.

Had me confused, guess its seats not %






New. "In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to Leave the EU?"

Right 42%
Wrong 58%


YouGov June 29.
Don't knows excluded.