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17 May 20 16:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 33,265 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Net Approval Ratings of Party Leaders

Keir Starmer (LAB): +24 (+6)
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +15 (+7)
Boris Johnson (CON): +10 (-10)
Ed Davey (LD): -4 (+3)
Nigel Farage (BRX): -20 (+2)

Via @OpiniumResearch
Pause Switch to Standard View A pinch of salt,... Approval ratings
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Report politicspunter June 1, 2022 2:21 PM BST
NEW:
@IpsosUK
polling in Scotland shows dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson at an all-time high; 83% are now dissatisfied with his performance with just 12% satisfied.
Report politicspunter June 1, 2022 2:22 PM BST
Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

NO: 46% (+3)
YES: 45% (-5)
Undecideds: 8% (+2)

Undecideds Excluded:

NO: 50% (+4)
YES: 50% (-4)

Via @IpsosScotland, On 23-29 May,
Changes w/ 3-9 February.
Report politicspunter June 2, 2022 5:25 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (-4)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
REF: 4% (+2)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 1 June,
Changes w/ 29 May.
Report politicspunter June 2, 2022 5:25 PM BST
That previous Redfield Wilton poll looked like an outlier.
Report politicspunter June 3, 2022 2:38 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (=)
CON: 32% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@techneUK
, 31 May - 1 June.
Changes w/ 25-26 May.
Report politicspunter June 9, 2022 11:04 AM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
3m
For which OTHER party could current Conservative voters see themselves voting? (5 June)

None 48% (-11)
Labour 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+5)
Independent 8% (+1)
Reform UK 7% (+3)
Don't know 13% (+3)

Changes +/- 29 May
Report politicspunter June 9, 2022 5:04 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
3m
Westminster Voting Intention (8-9 June):

Labour 40% (+2)
Conservative 32% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
Green 5% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 5 June
Report politicspunter June 9, 2022 5:05 PM BST
How long can the tory party sustain these appalling opinion poll figures?
Report politicspunter June 9, 2022 5:12 PM BST
I make that giving Labour on 321 seats. Not quite an overall majority but certainly enough to form a government.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 9, 2022 5:17 PM BST
62% for the lefties. (plus plaid)
Report politicspunter June 10, 2022 1:29 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (-1)
CON: 33% (+1)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@techneUK
, 8-9 Jun.
Changes w/ 31 May - 1 Jun.
Report politicspunter June 10, 2022 1:30 PM BST
Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone (Sevenoaks) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.4%
CON: 45.6%

Previously elected unopposed.

Votes cast: 631

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.


Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
2h
This is basically the most Tory place in the world and they still lost it.
Report politicspunter June 10, 2022 3:06 PM BST
Mattishall (Breckland) council by-election result:

CON: 41.9% (-4.7)
IND: 37.8% (+37.8)
LAB: 20.2% (-5.2)

No other Ind (-27.9) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,285

Conservative HOLD.

Just!
Report politicspunter June 10, 2022 3:07 PM BST
Southgate (Crawley) council by-election result:

LAB: 50.1% (+2.2)
CON: 42.2% (+3.7)
GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)

No LDem (-13.5) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,872

Labour HOLD.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 13, 2022 5:06 PM BST
Highest % for the Lib Dems that we've recorded.

Westminster Voting Intention (12 June):

Labour 39% (-1)
Conservative 32% (–)
Liberal Democrat 15% (+2)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-2)
Other 3% (+1)

Changes +/- 8 June

https://t.co/kvQdY3wyuK


Looks like a shift to the left again.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 5:51 PM BST
LibDems will be pleased with that poll.
Report brentford June 13, 2022 6:02 PM BST
Lib Dems benefitting from lack of national scrutiny currently...

In many places they have a reputation for doing  a very good job at local level but even as someone who's natural voting intent is in their direction it feels a number that won't be sustainable in an election run up barring some lesser known figures rising through the ranks a bit...easier said than done with such limited exposure...

A lot of flex between both moderate and principled Conservative supporters (they do exist) and the Lib Dem vote for me but if Boris stays in office I guess a coalition of the Lab/Libs not inconceivable..
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 6:14 PM BST
In fact I would go so far as to say it is a very likely outcome.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 6:18 PM BST
I make that poll...

Labour 320
Con 235
SNP 52
LibDem 19
Plaid Cymru 5
Green 1
N.Ireland 18
Report brentford June 13, 2022 6:30 PM BST
Two things that play against LibDems being coalition partners are the previous mentioned lack of current credibility as a big national player in terms of names ...this is a weak group by historical standards of known key party members if you play back to the origins of the party and beyond..
last time they faded badly when it mattered most... a lot of people barely follow politics outside of general election build ups and the polarisation is always more likely around that time...
clearly that potentially feeds Labour as well but more likely returns to the Conservatives (purely imo)...

and of course the damage to the party the last time they went that route - all be it with the Conservatives but it could easily damage the other side of their support base and this could feed reluctance.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 7:00 PM BST
If Labour are short of an overall majority but have one with a coalition, the LibDems will be their first port of call unless they are only half a dozen or so short and get a confidence and supply type agreement with some Northern Ireland parties such as the Alliance and SDLP.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 13, 2022 7:29 PM BST
+ Green!
Report politicspunter June 13, 2022 7:31 PM BST
Yes, possibly but they would probably wish to avoid that as that may mean a former coalition and giving Caroline Lucas a cabinet seat.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 13, 2022 8:02 PM BST
I reckon they would love to have her in cabinet.
Report politicspunter June 14, 2022 5:45 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention (Red Wall):

LAB: 46% (+8)
CON: 36% (-11)
REF: 6% (-1)
LDM: 5% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+3)
PLC: 2% (+1)
OTH: 2% (=)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 12-13 June,
Changes w/ GE2019.
Report politicspunter June 14, 2022 5:46 PM BST
Note that Green vote. We know where that will likely go in the event of a close call or even Greens not fielding a constituency candidate.
Report politicspunter June 14, 2022 5:47 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
· Jun 9
What is the ‘Red Wall’?

The Red Wall are the 40 historically Labour constituencies that the Conservatives won in 2019 (plus Hartlepool).

Labour must win these seats back if they are to be in Government again.

Follow us @RedfieldWilton if you want to see Red Wall polling!  twitter.com/RedfieldWilton…
Report politicspunter June 15, 2022 7:01 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (-2)
CON: 34% (+3)
LDM: 10% (-1)
SNP: 4% (=)
GRN: 4% (+1)

Via
@SavantaComRes
, 10-12 Jun.
Changes w/ 27-29 May.
Report politicspunter June 16, 2022 2:27 PM BST
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
35m
Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (15/06):

LAB: 307 (+105) - 38.9%
CON: 243 (-122) - 33.3%
SNP: 49 (+1) - 3.9%
LDM: 24 (+13) - 12.2%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 5.5%
RFM: 0 (=) - 3.2%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.4%

LAB 19 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour/LibDem coalition.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2022 5:10 PM BST
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42% (+3)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-3)
GRN: 4% (-2)

via @RedfieldWilton, 15 Jun
Chgs. w/ 12 Jun



Tough times for pollsters, think this had
slightly different question,
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 9:25 AM BST
Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study

http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2022/06/15/is-there-a-mandate-for-indyref2-evidence-from-the-scottish-election-study/
.
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 11:32 AM BST
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (15-16 June)

Con: 33% (+1 from 8-9 June)
Lab: 39% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 10% (-1)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 4% (-1)
Reform UK: 4% (+1)

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/17/voting-intention-con-33-lab-39-15-16-june?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
.
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 11:32 AM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (=)
CON: 33% (=)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@techneUK
, 15-16 Jun.
Changes w/ 8-9 Jun.
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 5:13 PM BST
Brede and Udimore (Rother) council by-election result:

CON: 61.4% (+21.5)
LDEM: 38.6% (+30.9)

No Ind (-34.3), Lab (-10.3) and UKIP (-7.8) as prev.

Votes cast: 690

Conservative HOLD.

No clear damage to the tories there.
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 5:14 PM BST
Franche and Habberley North (Wyre Forest) council by-election result:

CON: 45.2% (+25.4)
LAB: 35.9% (+16.1)
LDEM: 19.0% (+9.2)

No Health Concern (-30.1), UKIP (-10.6) and Grn (-10.0) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,829

Conservative GAIN from Health Concern.

An impressive tory gain!
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 5:17 PM BST
Leamington Clarendon (Warwick) council by-election result:

LAB: 48.9% (+14.4)
LDEM: 28.1% (-1.3)
CON: 16.9% (-0.6)
GRN: 5.0% (-7.2)
UKIP: 1.1% (-5.2)

Votes cast: 2,176

Labour HOLD.
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 5:22 PM BST
Copt Hill (Sunderland) deferred council election result:

LAB: 44.5% (-1.6)
IND: 27.8% (+27.8)
CON: 17.6% (+4.9)
GRN: 7.3% (-3.0)
LDEM: 2.8% (+2.8)

No other Ind (-31.0) as prev.

Votes cast: 2,178

Labour HOLD

Independents do well in the North East.
Report politicspunter June 17, 2022 5:23 PM BST
Survation.
@Survation
·
1h
NEW - Westminster Voting Intention

LAB 41% (-1)
CON 34% (+1)
LD 10% (+1)
SNP 4% (-)
GRN 3% (-1)
OTH 7% (-1)

2053 UK adults aged 18+ online, 10th June '22. Changes w/ April 29 ‘22
Report politicspunter June 20, 2022 5:14 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (-2)
CON: 33% (-1)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
REF: 5% (+2)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 19 June,
Changes w/ 15 June.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 21, 2022 10:50 AM BST
There is confusion among the public on Labour's stance on the rail strikes

28% - think the party support them
8% - think they oppose them
21% - think neither
43% - don't know



Yougov

Interesting poll.
Report politicspunter June 21, 2022 10:53 AM BST
28% - think the party support them

Daily Mail/Daily Express readers.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 21, 2022 11:38 AM BST
How well Brits think the govt is handling… (net)

Inflation -64
Immigration -62
Economy -54*
NHS -51
Housing -49
Tax -47
Transport -36*
Benefits -36
Crime -35
Brexit -33
Environment -21
Education -16
Unemployment -5
Defence +13
Terrorism +29

*Lowest since tracker began Jun 2019


You gov
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 21, 2022 6:00 PM BST
Polling from @SavantaComRes: 58% of public say rail strikes this week are justified, 34% say they are not

66% say government have not done enough to prevent the strikes
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 21, 2022 6:04 PM BST
You gov from 2018,as Spanish police threaten to fine tourists
for urinating outside of toilets.


Many Brits have urinated in... unconventional locations
Desperation means that many Brits have sometimes had to relieve themselves in unconventional locations. Like the lady in the Dutch capital, 29% of Brits have taken an outdoor pee in an urban area, although men are much more likely to have done so than women (46% vs 13%).

Four in ten Brits (38%) have at some point done as the judge recommended and used the opposite gender’s restrooms (and in this case, women are more likely to have done so than men at 42% vs 34%). A further 77% have made use of facilities designed for the disabled.

Laziness seems to be responsible for some of the other locations Britons have taken a whizz. More than half of Brits (54%) have peed in the shower, 21% in a bottle and 12% in the sink of their own home. Nor do some Brits seem to have an aversion weeing in a body of water they are currently occupying – 48% have peed in the sea, 22% the bath and 20% a swimming pool.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 22, 2022 7:17 PM BST
Our research also shows that 6 in 10 Britons think workers have too little power in Britain today. Perhaps not surprising then that a similar number told us earlier that they sympathise with striking railway workers.

@IpsosUK
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 11:39 AM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 36% (-2)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDM: 13% (=)
GRN: 5% (-3)
SNP: 4% (+1)
RFM: 4% (+1)

Via
@Kantar_UKI
, 16-20 Jun.
Changes w/ 19-23 May.
Report politicspunter June 23, 2022 7:29 PM BST
POLL: Westminster Voting Intention

LAB: 42% (+2)
CON: 31% (-3)
LD: 10% (-)
GRN: 5% (+1)
SNP: 4% (-)

Via
@SavantaComRes
, 17-19 Jun
Changes w/ 10-12 Jun
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 12:27 AM BST
Bush Fair (Harlow) council by-election result:

LAB: 47.1% (+2.6)
CON: 38.2% (-6.5)
GRN: 8.6% (+1.0)
HAP: 6.0% (+6.0)

Votes cast: 1,261

Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 12:28 AM BST
Highley (Shropshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.5% (+54.5)
CON: 24.1% (-9.5)
LAB: 20.7% (+7.3)
GRN: 0.8% (+0.8)

Votes cast: 1,157

No Ind (-53.0) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 12:37 AM BST
Hindhead (Waverley) council by-election result:

LDEM: 54.6% (+7.9)
CON: 45.4% (-1.2)

Votes cast: 983

No Lab (-6.8) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Report politicspunter June 24, 2022 12:38 AM BST
Looking like a real stinker of a night for the tories.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 12:40 AM BST
Not huge swings, sure tories would love
similar in by elections for parliament!
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 12:56 AM BST
Port Talbot (Neath Port Talbot) council election result:

LAB: 58.1%
PC: 23.3%
IND: 15.6%
GRN: 2.9%

Labour HOLD (X3).

Lab previously elected unopposed.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 1:55 AM BST
New Malden Village (Kingston upon Thames) council election result:

LDEM: 32.8%
GRN: 23.4%
RES: 19.5%
CON: 12.6%
LAB: 11.7%

Liberal Democrat WIN (X3)

New boundaries.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 10:56 AM BST
Tiverton & Honiton parliamentary by-election result

LDEM: 52.9% (+38.1)
CON: 38.5% (-21.7)
LAB: 3.7% (-15.9)
GRN: 2.5% (-1.3)
REF: 1.1% (+1.1)
UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 10:57 AM BST
Wakefield parliamentary by-election result

LAB: 47.9% (+8.1)
CON: 30.0% (-17.3)
IND (Akbar): 7.6% (+7.6)
YRK: 4.3% (+2.4)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 24, 2022 2:44 PM BST
ANALYSIS: Labour won Wakefield by-election after a 12 pt vote swing from Tories to Labour.

If replicated on national voting stage, Labour would win an overall majority.





Overlooks mechanisms of yesterday's vote swap
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 25, 2022 8:55 PM BST
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 37% (+1)
CON: 34% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 22 - 24 Jun
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 26, 2022 12:48 PM BST
Mike smithson


Terrible polling for Johnson and good for Starmer from Opinium.

If you were forced to choose, which of these would you prefer?

A LAB government led by Keir Starmer: 46%
A CON government led by  Johnson: 35%
Report mafeking June 27, 2022 5:00 PM BST
obviously you won't get as much tactical voting at a general election but you have to think opinion polls will still underestimate the effect. very likely the next election will become get the tories out at any cost election especially in the unlikely event johnson is still the leader
Report politicspunter June 27, 2022 5:32 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (=)
CON: 34% (+1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-1)
REF: 3% (-2)
SNP: 4% (=)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 26 June,
Changes w/ 19 June.
Report politicspunter June 27, 2022 5:35 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
24m
Tied highest % to say 'incompetent' that we've recorded.

Government Competency Rating (26 June):

Incompetent: 54% (+5)
Competent: 20% (+1)
Net: -34% (-4)

Changes +/- 19 June

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-26-june-2022/
Report mafeking June 27, 2022 6:49 PM BST
where the hell have they found the 20% from ? Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 27, 2022 7:09 PM BST
Staunch supporters.

Must be near as low as it gets, 19% previous.


A bit like football markings out of 10 but nobody
gets less than 4.
Report politicspunter June 27, 2022 7:38 PM BST
True, how much less than that can it go?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 28, 2022 12:38 PM BST
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 39% (-)
CON: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+2)
REF: 4% (-)

via @YouGov, 22 - 23 Jun
Chgs. w/ 16 Jun
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 28, 2022 12:39 PM BST
Lib dem 9!
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 12:40 PM BST
Bit of a surprise there Shocked
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 1:58 PM BST
@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps
·
1h
Lindsay Hoyle’s daughter Emma Fox is on 3-strong shortlist when Lab in Warrington Sth (Con maj 2,010) pick cand next Monday, 41 yrs after grandfather Doug (now Lord) Hoyle won Warrington at famous 1981 by-election.  So we could soon see 3 generations of Hoyles in Parliament.
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 2:09 PM BST
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
1h
Lib Dem Lead over Greens by Pollster:

Redfield: +11%
Kantar: +8%
Techne: +8%
Survation: +7%
Opinium: +5%
YouGov: +1%
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 5:39 PM BST
Red Wall Voting Intention:

LAB: 46% (=)
CON: 35% (-1)
LDM: 8% (+3)
GRN: 4% (=)
REF: 3% (-3)
PLC: 1% (-1)

Via
@RedfieldWilton
, On 26-27 June,
Changes w/ 12-13 June.
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 5:40 PM BST
Lead grows to eleven.
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 5:51 PM BST
Smarkets News & Politics
@SmarketsPol
·
4m
Smarkets odds suggest a 59% chance that Scotland would vote for independence in a 2023 referendum (though it's worth bearing in mind that this includes the possibility of an unauthorised referendum being boycotted by unionists).
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 6:00 PM BST
WILL LLOYD
@willgeorgelloyd
·
5h
The Greens got 2% in Wakefield 2.5% in Tiverton, I think we can now officially say that the YouGov Green figure is inflated to an extent that drastically hinders Labour’s lead.

That should be worrying for the Tories because come GE time, that 8% will flock over to Labour.
Report politicspunter June 28, 2022 6:01 PM BST
I have to agree, especially in battleground constituencies.
Report mafeking June 29, 2022 3:56 PM BST
yep when it comes to the crunch people by nature want to be on winning side if at all possible. principles and values which may be espoused in public are easily discarded in the privacy of the voting booth
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 9:21 AM BST
Westminster Voting Intention (Scotland):

SNP: 45% (=)
LAB: 25% (+6)
CON: 18% (-7)
LDM: 8% (-2)

Via @SavantaComRes, 23-28 Jun.
Changes w/ GE2019.
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 9:22 AM BST
New Scottish Independence poll, ComRes 23 - 28 Jun (changes vs 26 Apr - 3 May):

No ~ 46% (-1)
Yes ~ 44% (-1)
Don't Know ~ 10% (+3)

Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
No ~ 51% (nc / -4)
Yes ~ 49% (nc / +4)

Source
@TheScotsman
: https://scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-majority-of-scots-a...
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 9:22 AM BST
New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 23 - 28 Jun (changes vs 26 Apr - 3 May):

List:
SNP ~ 33% (+2)
Lab ~ 24% (+1)
Con ~ 20% (+2)
Grn ~ 13% (-1)
LD ~ 8% (-2)
Alba ~ 2% (-1)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 46% (nc)
Lab ~ 25% (nc)
Con ~ 18% (nc)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 9:24 AM BST
All parties can take something from these polls. Labour have grabbed a bigger share of the unionist vote and seem to be holding on to it. The tories , although having lost a lot of ground, appear to have stopped the rot. The SNP figures are rock solid and consistent.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 30, 2022 11:25 AM BST
Latest Westminster voting intention (28-29 June)

Con: 33% (-1 from 22-23 June)
Lab: 36% (-3)
Lib Dem: 13% (+4)
Green: 6% (-2)
Reform UK: 3% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)

You gov.




Polling all over place on lib dems.. I guess
as folks consider tactical voting.
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 12:56 PM BST
Yes, and not just the usual point here and there.
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 5:22 PM BST
Westminster Voting Intention (29-30 June):

Labour 40% (-1)
Conservative 32% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 13% (-2)
Green 5% (+1)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Other 2% (+1)

Changes +/- 26 June

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-42
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 11:08 PM BST
Berwick Hills & Pallister (Middlesbrough) Result:

LAB: 56.8% (+26.5)
IND: 32.1% (New)
CON: 8.3% (+2.8)
LDM: 1.7% (New)
GRN: 1.1% (New)

No IND (-64.2) as prev.
LAB GAIN from Independent.
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 11:34 PM BST
Cleveleys Park (Wyre) Result:

CON: 53.7% (-9.0)
LAB: 46.3% (+9.0)

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2019.

This is in the battleground constituency Blackpool North.
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 11:39 PM BST
Ollerton (Newark & Sherwood) council by-election result:

LAB: 64.9% (+0.6)
CON: 26.7% (-9.0)
IND: 8.4% (+8.4)

Votes cast: 1,482

Labour HOLD.
Report politicspunter June 30, 2022 11:40 PM BST
Fazakerley (Liverpool) council by-election result:

LAB: 57.5% (-25.6)
IND: 26.9% (+26.9)
LDEM: 12.2% (+8.2)
GRN: 3.3% (-1.0)

No Con (-6.6) and Lib (-1.8) as prev.

Votes cast: 2,372

Labour HOLD.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 8:13 AM BST
Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 57.1% (+57.1)
CON: 31.5% (-39.5)
LAB: 5.0% (-23.9)
SDP: 3.7% (+3.7)
YRK: 2.7% (+2.7)

Votes cast: 3,416

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
11:49 PM · Jun 30, 2022

Shocked
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 9:01 AM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (+2)
CON: 30% (-3)
LDM: 15% (+3)

Via
@IpsosUK
, On 22-29 June,
Changes w/ 11-17 May.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 1, 2022 9:04 AM BST
Lib dems in Brid, lol.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:35 AM BST
Midway (South Derbyshire) council by-election result:

LAB: 52.6% (+14.8)
CON: 47.4% (+9.1)

No UKIP (-23.9) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,140

Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:36 AM BST
Bernwood (Buckinghamshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 38.7% (+21.4)
GRN: 34.4% (-3.9)
CON: 24.1% (-9.8)
LAB: 2.8% (-7.7)

Votes cast: 2,996

Previous election result (multi-member): Grn, Con*, Con

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 1, 2022 10:37 AM BST
New poll from @IpsosUK:

Labour: 41% (+2)
Cons: 30% (-3)
LibDem: 15% (+3)

(Changes since mid-May)

Oof.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 10:38 AM BST
A real stinker of a night for the tories and now that Ipsos poll to put the boot in.
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 11:47 AM BST
Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (30/06):

LAB: 314 (+112) - 39.2%
CON: 236 (-129) - 32.4%
SNP: 48 (=) - 3.9%
LDM: 26 (+15) - 12.9%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.8%
GRN: 1 (=) - 5.4%
RFM: 0 (=) - 3.3%
IND: 1 (+1) - 2.1%

LAB 12 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Report politicspunter July 1, 2022 12:29 PM BST
South Croydon (Croydon) council by-election result:

CON: 42.9% (+2.9)
LAB: 27.0% (-2.1)
LDEM: 14.7% (+0.6)
GRN: 8.8% (-5.5)
IND (Pelling): 5.2% (+5.2)
UKIP: 0.8% (-1.6)
IND (Samuel): 0.6% (+0.6)

Votes cast: 3,045

Conservative HOLD.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 1, 2022 1:20 PM BST
Tories drop to third place amongst Graduates

- @IpsosNewsPolls

LAB 40%
LDs 25%
CON 20%
GRN 8%
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 8:30 AM BST
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/02/conservatives-set-lose-26-their-64-lib-dem-battleg
.

Tories under immense pressure in the South of England.
Report politicspunter July 2, 2022 4:36 PM BST
YouGov MRP (CON/LD Marginals):

CON: 38 (-26)
LDM: 24 (+24)
LAB: 2 (+2)

Via
@YouGov
, 15-29 Jun.
Changes w/ GE2019.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 2, 2022 6:41 PM BST
Had me confused, guess its seats not %






New. "In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to Leave the EU?"

Right 42%
Wrong 58%


YouGov June 29.
Don't knows excluded.
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