Politics
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22 Apr 20
11:43
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20 Mar 18
Election year in USA with voting scheduled for November 3rd. This thread is for events folks will be voting on, and more importantly betting on (!) outwith the President outcome itself. There are loads of markets appearing, particularly betting on which presidential candidate will win each state and also senate elections in each state.
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I am going to start off by looking at individual states that will be voting in the Presidential election. Most of them don't count, as the result is a formality, either certain democrat or republican.
Certain Republican- Wyoming, West Virginia, Utah, Tennessee, South Dakota, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Nebraska, Mississippi, Kentucky, Kansas, Idaho, Arkansas, Alabama. Certain Democrat- District of Columbia, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, California, Washington, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Illinois. Likely Republican- Montana, Louisiana, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Alaska. Likely Democrat- Oregon, New Mexico. Battlegrounds- Maine, Iowa, Texas, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida. |
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For a betting guide on the "certain" state groups, if you can get 1.1 or better and you don't mind tying your money up till November, take it. In the "likely" state groups, if you can get 1.3 or above it is value.
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Battleground states- These are all possibles for both democrat and republican. Currently I would break them down to..
Republican favourite- Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Ohio. Democrat favourite- Maine, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Minnesota. Toss ups- Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida. From a betting point of view, if you can get evens any of the republican or democrat within their respective "favourite" groups, it is value. If you can get 3.0, either republican or democrat, in the toss up groups, take it. |
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Emotion removed, logic applied.
Still won't prevent the usual abusers abusing.  |
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Ah, we have had some excellent, polite, betting threads in the past on similar, so hopefully that will continue.
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What's the likely price for Mitch going down?
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Mitch who?
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Very good ty, should be interesting.
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Just to say in that Kentucky senate election, the democrat candidate has not been selected yet but Amy McGrath is clear favourite.
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I saw a bit of twitter hype for the prospect of him losing but I don't know how realistic it is or if its 2019 Labour "we're gonna unseat Boris" levels
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The latest on the individual states is that Trump seems to be holding his vote in his strongest battlegrounds like Georgia and Texas but is losing ground in toss up states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida.
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Zilch on the betfair exchange yet regarding these markets. Strange, because virtually everyone else has active markets on them now.
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Mark Cuban considering independent run
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What's the betting on who Sleepy Joes running mate will be? I hear rumours about Hilary but that seems a bit far fetched to me.Anyway, whoever it is do they automatically become the nominee if Sleepy Joe has to step down for health reasons? He looks and sounds terrible to me, I think there is a fair chance he doesn't make it until November as the nominee. If his running mate automatically becomes the nominee then that person has to be worth a value bet to be President.
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argh damn betfair ate my post.. they are never going to fix it are they
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basically, harris probably the rightful fav but maybe too short. she appears capable, young(relatively) strong, diverse. could help solidify the black vote and hinder trumps gains with black people. seems a bit strange considering she attacked biden about race in the early debates but that was eons ago in this political cycle.
warren: too old and white, and her lying about her race for her own benefit is a giant target for trump, although she does represent possible outreach to progressives, although maybe as not as much as ppl think as a lot of bernie bro's are seeing through her act after she failed to endorse him. I think it's more likely that the dnc will expect most progressives to simply fall in line like good sheeple and vote for the lesser of 2 evils and look for someone who isn't white. klobuchar is a good campaigner, has good experience at winning elections, is a strong and upbeat speaker on the front foot but lacking when she get's criticized quite badly. she can help biden do well in the rust belt but that's about it. she's possible i guess but again the pressure to pick someone of color is pretty high. abrams is inexperienced, but could help with the black vote and latino's more than harris, and she's making a lot of fuss about getting into the discussion, but i just don't see what she brings to the table other than her pigment. don't know enough about the rest to say much about them. |
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oh and michelle obama doesn't seem plausible either considering she has made it pretty clear she doesn't want to go anywhere near the white-house ever again. I still don't get why she is still in the running for the dem nominee market on betfair at like 75/1. tbh Biden at 1.12 atm seems pretty good value if only for a trade.
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Exchange now beginning to open markets for individual states for the Presidential election.
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Most states won odds...
Republican 1.67 Democrat 2.1 |
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Recently in state polls Biden is ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, Ohio and today Texas. Long way to go though.
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Exchange now have Presidential states listed alphabetically up to Minnesota, so a few battlegrounds now available.
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All Presidential states now on exchange plus some Congressional elections for house and senate.
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Some Presidential state polls tonight...
California 65-35 Biden. Doesn't really matter,certain Biden win. Ohio 51-49 Trump. Trump won here in 2016 51-43. Texas 52-48 Trump. Trump won here in 2016 52-43. Trump will be glad he is still ahead in Ohio and Texas but the swings against him are typical of battleground states. |
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Latest state poll from Wisconsin has Biden leading 46-43. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 47-46.
Latest state poll from Georgia has Biden leading 47-46. Trump won Georgia in 2016 51-46. |
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Georgia is a state where the democrats have been making slow but steady progress over a number of years.
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CNN poll out today:
hTTps://longreads.com/2017/04/13/in-1975-newsweek-predicted-a-new-ice-age-were-still-living-with-the-consequences/ New CNN poll has Biden up on Trump 51-46% nationally. There's also a poll within the poll of 15 battleground states: AZ, CO, FL, GA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NM, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI - with Trump up 52-45% in them. In '16 these states went for Trump 48-47%. (The survey of the battleground states has a higher margin of error than for the full national result) |
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Lol, wrong link
hTTp://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf |
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Thanks for this Shab, very interesting. Some of the battleground states have recently produced polls with Biden in front. I wonder if Trump is making progress in places like Maine, Virginia and New Hampshire? That battleground 59-34 independent voter split in favour of Trump looks a bit high to me.
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Had a good look through that poll Shab linked to and the thing that stands out for me is that in battleground states Bidens approval rating with independents is -19. Trumps is 0. When asked about voting intention this translated into 59-34 in favour of Trump. This is one of the most crucial categories in deciding the next President.
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The one thing that the poll doesn't show sadly is the breakdown in individual battleground states.
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https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-leads-trump-in-florida.php
Biden leads Trump in Florida in latest poll 53-47 but voters believe Trump will win. |
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Some more Presidential state polls today..
Georgia 48-47 Biden- Trump expected to hold here but it's gonna be close. Florida 45-44 Biden- Toss up Arizona 50-43 Biden- Should be a toss up but Biden is consistently leading here. Virginia 51-39 Biden- Should be in play but again Biden increasing polling lead. Tennessee 53-36 Trump- cert Trump hold. |
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Today it's Kentucky with Trump ahead 55-39. He won there in 2016 62-32 so certain win for him this year of course but with a vastly reduced lead, which is similar to all state polls so far.
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Has arizona got owt to do with Mark Kelly and his Senate bid.
Interesting chap. |
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