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aaronh
10 Mar 20 12:52
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Date Joined: 18 Sep 09
| Topic/replies: 275,881 | Blogger: aaronh's blog
Looks to be trending that way. Why?
Pause Switch to Standard View Trump to be underdog vs Biden
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Report jollyswagman March 22, 2020 11:23 AM GMT
maybe he listened to trump's medical advice and has succumbed Scared
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- March 22, 2020 12:45 PM GMT
trump sending 1000 dollar checks might sway a few votes

biden needs to get ahead of this as sanders surely would
Report ffaith March 22, 2020 12:46 PM GMT
The only black support biden has are the ones he has paid off.   To claim he has black support is a lie.
Report politicspunter March 22, 2020 2:19 PM GMT

Mar 22, 2020 -- 7:46AM, ffaith wrote:


The only black support biden has are the ones he has paid off.

Report politicspunter March 22, 2020 2:20 PM GMT
Paid off? Are you saying Trump has more black support than Biden?
Report ffaith March 22, 2020 3:18 PM GMT
I am saying obama did more for the rainbow people than he did for black people.  I  am saying the DP is no longer the automatic go to party for black people.  Race neutral policies wont cut it they want tangible/race specific agendas(ie reparations).  I expect the biden black support to be lukewarm come elections.
Report politicspunter March 22, 2020 3:45 PM GMT
First of all, who are rainbow people? Secondly, if you think black voters are going to get up and suddenly support Trump, you are going to be disappointed.
Report Angoose March 22, 2020 4:19 PM GMT
George, Bungle, and Zippy ?
Report timbuctooth March 22, 2020 6:49 PM GMT
8% of African Americans voted for The Don in 2016, with recent polls showing `support` or `approve` levels at anywhere between Pew`s 14% and Rasmussen`s 36%; we know `support` doesn`t equate to `will definitely vote for`, but even just with a 14% conversion rate we`re in landslide territory.
Report thegiggilo March 22, 2020 6:52 PM GMT
CHORTLE
Report politicspunter March 22, 2020 7:26 PM GMT

Mar 22, 2020 -- 1:49PM, timbuctooth wrote:


8% of African Americans voted for The Don in 2016, with recent polls showing `support` or `approve` levels at anywhere between Pew`s 14% and Rasmussen`s 36%; we know `support` doesn`t equate to `will definitely vote for`, but even just with a 14% conversion rate we`re in landslide territory.


Who for?

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- March 22, 2020 7:32 PM GMT
trump got 8% of african american vote of those that voted


lots did not vote, as had for obama


it looks as if biden will do better than clinton at getting black vote out.
Report Shab March 24, 2020 2:00 AM GMT
Nominee prices: Biden 1.12, Trump 1.1

Far too short given the chances of either one of them (or even somebody very close to them) getting or being suspected of having COVID before July.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- March 24, 2020 12:31 PM GMT
what election ?

could it be cancelled ?

are rules in constitution?
Report thegiggilo March 24, 2020 3:03 PM GMT
There's a brain surgeon on twitter that has pointed out a large scar on bidens head,he says he is certain bide has had brain surgery recently and he's a supporter..Shocked
Report peckerdunne March 24, 2020 3:08 PM GMT
No i think he said, he can verify that Russian Joe definitely does have a brain..
Report peckerdunne March 24, 2020 3:09 PM GMT
At least that's what the surgeon who sliced him said...
Report politicspunter March 24, 2020 3:11 PM GMT

Mar 24, 2020 -- 10:03AM, thegiggilo wrote:


There's a brain surgeon on twitter that has pointed out a large scar on bidens head,he says he is certain bide has had brain surgery recently and he's a supporter..


Got a link to that giggilo please?

Report peckerdunne March 24, 2020 3:15 PM GMT
Biden has had brain surgery in the past..
Report politicspunter March 24, 2020 3:27 PM GMT

Mar 24, 2020 -- 10:15AM, peckerdunne wrote:


Biden has had brain surgery in the past..


Ah, right enough, just checked.

Report drive for show putt for dough March 24, 2020 7:37 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/RubinReport/status/1242498560181977091


Unbelievable that the dems are going to go with biden
Report Shab March 24, 2020 11:50 PM GMT
I think he will withdraw or be forced out at Convention.

Hillary has been very quiet for a long time, but recently has started appearing on the sidelines and has been having a pop at Trump on twitter over the last few days. Is she lining herself up to step in?

Crazy, I know. But so is US politics.

Another crazy. Michelle Obama is 4th favourite for the nomination (at 70). Now THAT would be incredible.
Report politicspunter March 24, 2020 11:59 PM GMT
I am beginning to have serious doubts if this election is even going to take place.
Report thegiggilo March 25, 2020 12:07 AM GMT
Trump seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,opening up the states wtf Shockedwants churches full on easter sunday...then it will be our mini me following suit..
Report Shab March 25, 2020 12:22 AM GMT
What happens for the election not to happen? Who decides? Can't see the Dems agreeing to Trump staying on as President for 1 minute longer than necessary.
Report cryoftruth March 25, 2020 7:13 AM GMT
Can't see the Dems agreeing to Trump staying on as President for 1 minute longer than necessary.

Well that would be like someone with a bad dose of syphilis agreeing to put antibiotics on standby by for another year.

I never said Mexico would pay for the wall!
Report bardo March 25, 2020 10:03 AM GMT
Open your eyes folks ....The Governor of New York democrat  Andrew Cuomo is the one you want to watch

He is currently 100/1Wink
Report Shab March 25, 2020 2:52 PM GMT
I did have a completely green book, but have recently started laying Biden so now he's my only red. Plenty of time for a drift in price and plenty of reasons for one to happen. Can't see him shortening too far for many weeks.
Report Shab March 25, 2020 2:53 PM GMT
On the Dem Nominee market, btw.
Report jollyswagman March 27, 2020 4:10 PM GMT
cuomo lpm 50 so well done bardo Cool

i just watched some of his latest press conference and he is certainly far more impressive than the two slated to fight out the presidency.
Report politicspunter March 27, 2020 5:45 PM GMT
Cuomo is impressive. However, he looks as though he will be totally tied up in New York and the virus aftermath to duel with Trump. I have two quid at 220s from a while back but not expecting to collect.
Report drive for show putt for dough March 27, 2020 5:54 PM GMT
If trump colonel sanders or bonkers biden were in the Uk they would have been told to lock themselves away for 12 weeks!
Report politicspunter March 27, 2020 6:15 PM GMT
Lookat those Trump press conferences with all his gang huddled together behind him. Its going to be like dominoes if it turns out one of them has the virus.
Report drive for show putt for dough March 27, 2020 9:21 PM GMT
Thought that the other day

USa over 100k cases now
Report politicspunter March 28, 2020 2:18 PM GMT
I have been thinking about the democrat candidate/ president race today. In these very uncertain times, would you wish to have most of you funds on these markets tied up on Biden? He was 1.06 for the democrat candidate spot not so long ago and he is 1.2 today. Obviously I don't wish anything health wise to derail his campaign but how solidly on track is he? Sanders is around the 30 mark and although his route looks (highly) unlikely, he really has to worth a saver at that price now.
Report drive for show putt for dough March 28, 2020 3:26 PM GMT
Has to be some question marks whether either would survive catching the virus.

Biden's problems are exasperated by the fact he seems to be losing his cognitive capability
Report Shab March 28, 2020 3:54 PM GMT
The sex abuse accusation on Biden could lead to a few others coming out of the woodwork. A man who sniffs children's hair must have plenty of dodgy situations in his past that could be exploited.
Some people on Twitter even saying it is a Dem operation to get him removed.

I love watching US politics. It is the dirtiest game in town but is great spectator sport.
Report sofiakenny March 28, 2020 4:33 PM GMT
Cuomo..lpm 30!Shocked
Report drive for show putt for dough March 28, 2020 4:58 PM GMT
Cuomo coming across incredibly well in his press conferences, clear, articulate, honest, has a plan, staying calm under pressure - exactly what we need at this moment.
Report sofiakenny March 28, 2020 5:15 PM GMT
Yep..he is different gravy..a proper leader..New York lucky to have him..very accomplished.
Report thegiggilo March 28, 2020 5:21 PM GMT
No one to touch him in the US,would probably be classed as a blairite over here,although looking at the things he's helped push through has a great record..
Report politicspunter March 28, 2020 7:39 PM GMT

Mar 28, 2020 -- 10:54AM, Shab wrote:


The sex abuse accusation on Biden could lead to a few others coming out of the woodwork. A man who sniffs children's hair must have plenty of dodgy situations in his past that could be exploited.Some people on Twitter even saying it is a Dem operation to get him removed.I love watching US politics. It is the dirtiest game in town but is great spectator sport.


..and has some of the best betting markets because of that.

Report Biffo2010 March 28, 2020 8:43 PM GMT
Should we be layin the 1,22 on sleepy Joe
Report polybot March 29, 2020 2:41 AM BST
The risk on laying Joe at 1.22 is that he gets rolled after the convention which is when the bet is settled. But even that is over a hundred days away with a serious rape charge having just emerged. I'm guessing the Party has already selected the candidate.
Report politicspunter March 29, 2020 10:20 AM BST

Mar 28, 2020 -- 8:41PM, polybot wrote:


The risk on laying Joe at 1.22 is that he gets rolled after the convention which is when the bet is settled. But even that is over a hundred days away with a serious rape charge having just emerged. I'm guessing the Party has already selected the candidate.


Link please?

Report polybot March 30, 2020 2:00 AM BST
.https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/26/headlines/the_intercept_times_up_legal_defense_fund_refused_to_support_metoo_allegation_against_joe_biden

.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/joe-biden-sexual-assault-allegations-why-has-media-ignored-claims
Report politicspunter March 30, 2020 2:36 AM BST
Thanks polybot.
Report Shab May 1, 2020 3:43 PM BST
It really looks to me like Biden is being hung out to dry.

Look at this video hTTps://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1256218292009787395?s=20

It is not the first one lately where Biden was just embarrassing. It is no accident. I think they are lining him up to be removed soon.

Also Hillary's prices all shortened yesterday. Funny thing is I think she is the only Dem with a chance of winning.

Something is going on!
Report politicspunter May 1, 2020 6:49 PM BST
The way Trump is going, any democrat will win.
Report politicspunter May 1, 2020 6:52 PM BST
I just wouldn't bet on the Presidential winner market at all, it's too risky. I might have a bet on the day before as they are going in the traps and the hare is running.
Report flushgordon1 May 1, 2020 7:01 PM BST
My only bet on it.

01
Matched
Average Odds

Lay Joe Biden
for £100.00 @ 1.11 liability £11.00
Report razz May 2, 2020 9:27 AM BST

May 1, 2020 -- 9:43AM, Shab wrote:


It really looks to me like Biden is being hung out to dry.Look at this video hTTps://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1256218292009787395?s=20It is not the first one lately where Biden was just embarrassing. It is no accident. I think they are lining him up to be removed soon.Also Hillary's prices all shortened yesterday. Funny thing is I think she is the only Dem with a chance of winning.Something is going on!


I think the hillary hype is not credited, I don't see her risking losing to trump twice, she couldn't live it down. also she is really old her health problems will be a big hurdle too, the bill-epstein connection seems like political suicide for her if she tried. she has denied she will run (for what that's worth) when her book was coming out.

Report razz May 2, 2020 9:35 AM BST
But it does seem as if things are snowballing against biden's campaign now despite all of the beneficial things that have happened to his campaign over the last couple of months. he'll try to stick out these allegations, but they are going to do his poll #'s some serious harm imo.
Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 9:54 AM BST
If folks thinks that Biden (or Trump for that matter) won't make it to the starting line, start scattering some loose change at possible alternatives at huge prices in the next President market. Mike Pence is at 100 so that would be a good place to start. Follow it up with Gretchen Whitmer at 870, among others.
Report razz May 2, 2020 11:13 AM BST
we know the dnc was prepared to stop bernie and real change in their party by giving biden the nod, they know he is in some ways the worst candidate in their history, equating to them preferring to quite possibly losing the election to trump to hold onto power in the democratic party. the covid stuff and trump's fumbling has given them a possible chance that biden might pull it off somehow, for them that's a win win. I don't think they will further discredit the process by pulling him at the final hurdle unless he steps down himself.
I think he will be able to make it to november but it's far from certain. probably still some value out there on those long shots though, pence like you said for starters.
Report razz May 2, 2020 11:15 AM BST
I just don't see the value on hillary though. I think the market is overestimating her actual chances much like it did to bloomberg.
Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 11:24 AM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 5:13AM, razz wrote:


we know the dnc was prepared to stop bernie and real change in their party by giving biden the nod, they know he is in some ways the worst candidate in their history, equating to them preferring to quite possibly losing the election to trump to hold onto power in the democratic party. the covid stuff and trump's fumbling has given them a possible chance that biden might pull it off somehow, for them that's a win win. I don't think they will further discredit the process by pulling him at the final hurdle unless he steps down himself. I think he will be able to make it to november but it's far from certain. probably still some value out there on those long shots though, pence like you said for starters.


I don't think Biden is the worst candidate in their history. Biden will appeal to white voters in the rust belt and black voters in the south.

Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 11:26 AM BST
If the election was tomorrow Biden would win, probably by a landslide.
Report razz May 2, 2020 11:50 AM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 5:24AM, politicspunter wrote:


May  2, 2020 -- 10:13AM, razz wrote:we know the dnc was prepared to stop bernie and real change in their party by giving biden the nod, they know he is in some ways the worst candidate in their history, equating to them preferring to quite possibly losing the election to trump to hold onto power in the democratic party. the covid stuff and trump's fumbling has given them a possible chance that biden might pull it off somehow, for them that's a win win. I don't think they will further discredit the process by pulling him at the final hurdle unless he steps down himself. I think he will be able to make it to november but it's far from certain. probably still some value out there on those long shots though, pence like you said for starters.I don't think Biden is the worst candidate in their history. Biden will appeal to white voters in the rust belt and black voters in the south.


in terms of the liability of his mental faculties I'd say 100%, although maybe not overall worse than killary.

Report razz May 2, 2020 11:50 AM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 5:26AM, politicspunter wrote:


If the election was tomorrow Biden would win, probably by a landslide.


meaningless with long term strategies playing out.

Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 11:55 AM BST
The long term strategy of the democrats appears to be to say nothing and let Trump campaign for them.
Report aaronh May 2, 2020 12:12 PM BST
worked so well last time after all Cool
Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 12:17 PM BST
Trump hadn't been in office the last time.
Report flushgordon1 May 2, 2020 12:55 PM BST
The construct of trump you perceive by the media is not what the population believe.
Trump pisses in today tomorrow November .
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- May 2, 2020 1:22 PM BST
Is sleepy Joe any more mentally compromised than lyin Don?

They may be dorm mates within a few years.

Lyin Don has lost so much vocabulary over the past 4 years and keeps not finding
words he is looking for and defaults to "stuff"

Neither will be capable of true leadership, but maybe that's another agenda?
Report johnni May 2, 2020 1:58 PM BST
Its going to be Hillary vs Trump, thats what I think. Have bet on Hillary. Why? Shes not quitting. Atleast she will be the nominee if nothing else.
Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 2:11 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 7:58AM, johnni wrote:


Its going to be Hillary vs Trump, thats what I think. Have bet on Hillary. Why? Shes not quitting. Atleast she will be the nominee if nothing else.


I think Hillary is terrible value.

Report razz May 2, 2020 2:47 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 7:22AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


Is sleepy Joe any more mentally compromised than lyin Don?They may be dorm mates within a few years. Lyin Don has lost so much vocabulary over the past 4 years and keeps not findingwords he is looking for and defaults to "stuff"Neither will be capable of true leadership, but maybe that's another agenda?


I've seen this new narrative appearing a few places lately, but it's just simply not in the same ballpark, I think trump probably has declined somewhat, especially with the pandemic throwing his plans up in the air, but this is simply not even in the same ballpark as biden's inability to form coherent sentences. I'm interested to see what the go to dem narrative will be now that the "biden is a nice guy so vote for him" one has been stopped in it's tracks by all the negative exposure and fluffed interviews about the sexual assault claim.

Report aaronh May 2, 2020 2:59 PM BST
Trump is just not all that smart and has a limited vocabulary. His public speaking generally tends to be way more informal too.

Biden, you just need to look at clips over the past 10 years to see the change
Report razz May 2, 2020 3:13 PM BST
Disagree about trump not being smart. he appears dumb at times, and democrats frame him like that but that merely clouds people's judgement of him, and they can't see the reasons behind how he became president, given democrats hate him so much it's always struck me as weird they can't talk honestly about his skillset at persuading people, his skills of disarming and nullifying attacks that would sink other politicians instantly, his skill in correctly assessing the state of dissatisfaction among the working class and people's lack of trust in politics and he probably planned that over decades. trump's vocabulary is limited but he uses it effectively, his skills in running rings around the media making them less and less trusted. one of his best skills is simplifying the topics he talks about and then questioning it when people don't have an answer and often he has a point. an example(iirc) would be when he commented about nato saying why do they still exist? the reason they were formed was to stop the risk of the ussr invading eastern europe but they aren't around anymore, people were losing there **** but no one could think of a good reason. another good one was when that reporter was asking about oil and trump asked him what was the price, he didn't know  and trump just blew him off haha.
Report Burt06 May 2, 2020 3:18 PM BST
Kamala Harris 100/1

Hilary   33/1

Elizabeth Warren   150/1

Amy Klobuchar    200/1

I've had a nibble on all 4.
Don't see Sleepy Joe making it. If he goes the decision goes to the 150 or so Dem leaders.
Report razz May 2, 2020 3:28 PM BST
I'm on klob and harris. don't see a path for warren or hillary
Report aaronh May 2, 2020 3:30 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 9:13AM, razz wrote:


Disagree about trump not being smart. he appears dumb at times, and democrats frame him like that but that merely clouds people's judgement of him, and they can't see the reasons behind how he became president, given democrats hate him so much it's always struck me as weird they can't talk honestly about his skillset at persuading people, his skills of disarming and nullifying attacks that would sink other politicians instantly, his skill in correctly assessing the state of dissatisfaction among the working class and people's lack of trust in politics and he probably planned that over decades. trump's vocabulary is limited but he uses it effectively, his skills in running rings around the media making them less and less trusted. one of his best skills is simplifying the topics he talks about and then questioning it when people don't have an answer and often he has a point. an example(iirc) would be when he commented about nato saying why do they still exist? the reason they were formed was to stop the risk of the ussr invading eastern europe but they aren't around anymore, people were losing there **** but no one could think of a good reason. another good one was when that reporter was asking about oil and trump asked him what was the price, he didn't know

Report aaronh May 2, 2020 3:30 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 9:30AM, aaronh wrote:


May  2, 2020 --  2:13PM, razz wrote:Disagree about trump not being smart. he appears dumb at times, and democrats frame him like that but that merely clouds people's judgement of him, and they can't see the reasons behind how he became president, given democrats hate him so much it's always struck me as weird they can't talk honestly about his skillset at persuading people, his skills of disarming and nullifying attacks that would sink other politicians instantly, his skill in correctly assessing the state of dissatisfaction among the working class and people's lack of trust in politics and he probably planned that over decades. trump's vocabulary is limited but he uses it effectively, his skills in running rings around the media making them less and less trusted. one of his best skills is simplifying the topics he talks about and then questioning it when people don't have an answer and often he has a point. an example(iirc) would be when he commented about nato saying why do they still exist? the reason they were formed was to stop the risk of the ussr invading eastern europe but they aren't around anymore, people were losing there **** but no one could think of a good reason. another good one was when that reporter was asking about oil and trump asked him what was the price, he didn't know


< test

Report aaronh May 2, 2020 3:31 PM BST
everything that has happened so far points to the idea that the DNC don't respect Warren unless the plan all along is that she swoops in as the "unity" candidate, although she lost a lot of support with the left over the campaign.
Report aaronh May 2, 2020 3:37 PM BST
Some fair points made.

he has a great team behind him and one that grasps how the mood and how politics has changed in the past 10-20 years. Biden is probably gonna win by default even though it will be an awful campaign and other wise the "orange man bad, orange man lying" method would have got killed again. 2024 will be interesting if Trump loses, whether he has a go again or it's some younger Republican saviour (Tom Cotton apparently the most notable of these).

Until a mounting death toll came about, why would some of these lost voters come back to the Dems? yes Trump is full of it but for ages the people telling you he is lying have done very little to help improve your lives and aren't offering anything again to do so.
Report razz May 2, 2020 3:45 PM BST
Trump does say some dumb **** too though tbf, the disinfectant line was super dumb even if the UV light part was actually feasible.
Report razz May 2, 2020 3:58 PM BST
Only way i see warren winning is if they just pull joe out and put her in all but accepting the loss this year and planning for a strong candidate in 2024. she's too old and flimsy and like you said the unity candidate tag is extremely weak compared to 6 months ago. she burnt bridges with progressives and as a result is a less appealing option for centrists. she's not going to appeal much to marginal republicans either
Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 4:29 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 9:58AM, razz wrote:


Only way i see warren winning is if they just pull joe out and put her in all but accepting the loss this year and planning for a strong candidate in 2024. she's too old and flimsy and like you said the unity candidate tag is extremely weak compared to 6 months ago. she burnt bridges with progressives and as a result is a less appealing option for centrists. she's not going to appeal much to marginal republicans either


She is younger than Trump.

Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 4:36 PM BST
What folks have to remember is that in 2016 Trump won very fortunately by winning key battleground states by a few thousand votes against a poor candidate who had an even poorer campaign organisation team. One of the states Trump won, Hillary never even went their as they assumed it was a certain win.
Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 4:37 PM BST
there
Report razz May 2, 2020 5:10 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 10:29AM, politicspunter wrote:


May  2, 2020 --  2:58PM, razz wrote:Only way i see warren winning is if they just pull joe out and put her in all but accepting the loss this year and planning for a strong candidate in 2024. she's too old and flimsy and like you said the unity candidate tag is extremely weak compared to 6 months ago. she burnt bridges with progressives and as a result is a less appealing option for centrists. she's not going to appeal much to marginal republicans eitherShe is younger than Trump.


I think the dnc realize that people want someone younger at the helm, warren is still over 70 years old which is crazy to me but makes her seem not old to many relative to trump/biden. further disgruntling large portions of their voter base seems a bad idea especially if it's just to give warren a long shot at beating trump

Report razz May 2, 2020 5:19 PM BST
Idk if we are talking about an alternate candidate as the result of biden's VP pick taking the helm if he steps down, or if he steps down before that and then they have more choices to choose from.
Out of the main vp picks it's hard to see any of them matching up too well vs trump, harris seems the strongest and i think she is being groomed behind the scenes whether for vp/back-up candidate of a future run im not sure. her close relationship with biden puts her at an advantage over everyone else. I imagine if he did step down it would be after the VP pick due bernie having a strong claim to be next in line.
Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 5:24 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 11:10AM, razz wrote:


May  2, 2020 --  3:29PM, politicspunter wrote:May  2, 2020 --  2:58PM, razz wrote:Only way i see warren winning is if they just pull joe out and put her in all but accepting the loss this year and planning for a strong candidate in 2024. she's too old and flimsy and like you said the unity candidate tag is extremely weak compared to 6 months ago. she burnt bridges with progressives and as a result is a less appealing option for centrists. she's not going to appeal much to marginal republicans eitherShe is younger than Trump.I think the dnc realize that people want someone younger at the helm, warren is still over 70 years old which is crazy to me but makes her seem not old to many relative to trump/biden. further disgruntling large portions of their voter base seems a bad idea especially if it's just to give warren a long shot at beating trump


I think Warren would be clear favourite to beat Trump and would have won in 2016 if she were the democrat candidate.

Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 5:26 PM BST

May 2, 2020 -- 11:19AM, razz wrote:


Idk if we are talking about an alternate candidate as the result of biden's VP pick taking the helm if he steps down, or if he steps down before that and then they have more choices to choose from. Out of the main vp picks it's hard to see any of them matching up too well vs trump, harris seems the strongest and i think she is being groomed behind the scenes whether for vp/back-up candidate of a future run im not sure. her close relationship with biden puts her at an advantage over everyone else. I imagine if he did step down it would be after the VP pick due bernie having a strong claim to be next in line.


Any possible VP pick would still be favourite to beat Trump right now on current polling.

Report politicspunter May 2, 2020 5:31 PM BST
At the end of the day, even a tiny swing against Trump in key states will defeat him. Currently, he is behind in all the key states plus some like North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Texas where he should really be big favourite.
Report KIMBLE May 5, 2020 2:43 PM BST
polls are not accurate when trump is involved. he wins this easy in november, prob by bigger than 2016 if biden is the opposition
Report politicspunter May 5, 2020 6:22 PM BST

May 5, 2020 -- 8:43AM, KIMBLE wrote:


polls are not accurate when trump is involved. he wins this easy in november, prob by bigger than 2016 if biden is the opposition


Thank you for that information.

Report cryoftruth May 5, 2020 9:46 PM BST
I think the trouble for Trump is that he has been revealing the depth of his ignorance and stupidity on telly when the US has been locked down so many more will actually have heard him.

I am not at all sure he will be reelected. His base clearly will keep voting for hime no matter how many gold plated Pinocchios he tells. However I am maybe thinking that there are insufficient racists and dullards to keep him in power next time. Especially as many will have died from injecting disinfectant.
Report razz May 7, 2020 2:50 AM BST

May 5, 2020 -- 3:46PM, cryoftruth wrote:


I think the trouble for Trump is that he has been revealing the depth of his ignorance and stupidity on telly when the US has been locked down so many more will actually have heard him.I am not at all sure he will be reelected. His base clearly will keep voting for hime no matter how many gold plated Pinocchios he tells. However I am maybe thinking that there are insufficient racists and dullards to keep him in power next time. Especially as many will have died from injecting disinfectant.


yeah trump is talking about this too much its hurting him for sure.

as for the racists and dullards it appears many moved over to the dems lately which is a good sign for them. Dem's are clearly the more irrational side right now.

Report politicspunter May 7, 2020 8:11 AM BST

May 6, 2020 -- 8:50PM, razz wrote:


May  5, 2020 --  8:46PM, cryoftruth wrote:I think the trouble for Trump is that he has been revealing the depth of his ignorance and stupidity on telly when the US has been locked down so many more will actually have heard him.I am not at all sure he will be reelected. His base clearly will keep voting for hime no matter how many gold plated Pinocchios he tells. However I am maybe thinking that there are insufficient racists and dullards to keep him in power next time. Especially as many will have died from injecting disinfectant.yeah trump is talking about this too much its hurting him for sure. as for the racists and dullards it appears many moved over to the dems lately which is a good sign for them. Dem's are clearly the more irrational side right now.


You only have to look at the recent Michigan armed uprising to see where the racists are.

Report razz May 8, 2020 4:26 AM BST
Plenty of racists on both sides let's be real.
Report KIMBLE May 8, 2020 2:56 PM BST
you need celebrity now to win in the states, biden while a former vp is not well known outside politics, the average guy doesn't know him so the swing votes won't come out. trump has the brand and the racists.
Report politicspunter May 8, 2020 4:55 PM BST

May 8, 2020 -- 8:56AM, KIMBLE wrote:


you need celebrity now to win in the states, biden while a former vp is not well known outside politics, the average guy doesn't know him so the swing votes won't come out. trump has the brand and the racists.


Trump is currently behind in the opinion polls in all the crucial swing states.

Report KIMBLE May 9, 2020 1:33 AM BST
the 'polls' had him a 5-1 dog against hillary in 2016, biden is a much weaker opposition candidate for a sitting president
Report razz May 9, 2020 6:01 AM BST
The polls in all likelihood are understating trump's actual numbers like last time. to what extent seems hard to work out though. you have to think a large part of biden's positive numbers are just anti trump votes, but as trump/the media/biden and dems themselves make it more and more apparent the shear ludicrous nature of having biden as a candidate to take on trump this could make swing voters a much bigger demographic than normal and make it hard to predict where more of them will end up.
Report razz May 9, 2020 7:16 AM BST
inexplicably biden does seem to have the upper hand right now though.
Report politicspunter May 9, 2020 9:22 AM BST

May 9, 2020 -- 1:16AM, razz wrote:


inexplicably biden does seem to have the upper hand right now though.


I don't think it's inexplicable at all nor do I think the democrat candidate really matters that much.

Report politicspunter May 9, 2020 9:23 AM BST

May 8, 2020 -- 7:33PM, KIMBLE wrote:


the 'polls' had him a 5-1 dog against hillary in 2016, biden is a much weaker opposition candidate for a sitting president


The national popular vote polls had Trump behind and he was. The battleground state polls were much closer and they were.

Report razz May 10, 2020 8:50 AM BST

May 9, 2020 -- 3:22AM, politicspunter wrote:


May  9, 2020 --  6:16AM, razz wrote:inexplicably biden does seem to have the upper hand right now though.I don't think it's inexplicable at all nor do I think the democrat candidate really matters that much.


I do

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