Sinn Fein new government in Ireland?

Ireland's leaders spending too much time dealing with EU issues and taking their eye off the ball at home. If only the Scots voted on domestic issues the SNP wouldn't be running the show north of the border.

Feb 10, 2020 -- 11:33AM, themover wrote:

Ireland's leaders spending too much time dealing with EU issues and taking their eye off the ball at home. If only the Scots voted on domestic issues the SNP wouldn't be running the show north of the border.

Lol, the SNP have been in control of Holyrood since 2007. Thirteen years and counting...

Lots of the FG effort went into Brexit .  Which ultimately is more important long term for Ireland , south and north , than a temporary fix for housing etc.  The economic effort in building 100,000 new public houses is dependent on affordability , which may disappear if Brexit turns ugly .  Would not expect the electorate to figure things like this out , especially the younger voters who feel entitled .

Controls on private landlords probably a factor , from my limited exposure to life in Dublin and district the regulations are easily skirted , and in an "emergent" resuscitated Celtic Tiger in / around Dublin demand exceeds supply , rent being secondary to availability , landlords ( absentee in a lot of cases , rents collected in cash form weekly ) hold the cards .

Drug society also a problem , either it needs to be "controlled" by the state , or the suppliers need to be "controlled" by increased or punitive Garda activity .

Sinn Fein have always been closer to their supporters than the 2 main parties , who by now will have figured out that being on one side or another of a civil war 100 years ago is no longer an influence on lots of the electorate .

Will take a few weeks to sort out new arrangements . Sinn Fein will obviously have a big say in future directions  , interesting to see if there is any spin off for Sinn Fein in the north .

What a night for Ireland on Sunday pubs were hammers, everybody was buzzing,it was as if every county had a share of Sam.
The rebels have won we need Mary Lou at the forefront of any talks on England's future relationship with our Eu allies.Hopefully Scotland will be inspired by Sinn Fein,s performance a d rid themselves of the royal beasts and Tory parasites.

Last price matched on the exchange 10/1 SF most seats, you could have had a bonanza here PP trading albeit a not very liquid market, still a glimmer you might be right.
Best of luck if still involved.

"England's future relationship with our EU allies"

Feb 10, 2020 -- 3:09PM, pa lapsy wrote:

Last price matched on the exchange 10/1 SF most seats, you could have had a bonanza here PP trading albeit a not very liquid market, still a glimmer you might be right.Best of luck if still involved.

I'm not involved now as I traded out after keen leaders advice. I will make about £75 if FF most seats, £34 Sinn Fein, £210 FG. FF probably still favourites I guess. The market I was really concentrating on was the FF under/over 50.5 seats market and as you will guess from up thread I am heavy into unders. Very confident of a nice payday on that one.

Good man,take a bow for the thread,you got most of it right.

There is nothing to stop the two centre right parties forming a government

Thank you. I have just double checked and I also have £2 at 100/1 SF most seats with a bookie which obviously is still running.

That most seats market is a close call. Betting is now 1.56 FF, 2.1 SF.

I'm watching it PP as got involved small time,19 seats only left,FF would need 9 for 38,hopefully the smaller parties and indos get plenty.

Martin Gould the most talented loser ever in the history of the game, that's career i mean............

FF can only win a maximum of ten seats, had a look through ones still to complete.

https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/results-hub

oops

I have it as 140/160 complete, 20 to go?

No 19, SF 37,FG 32,FF 29

Now 141/160. FF still on 29, SF on 37. Ten possibles for FF still to go.

yep

17 left seat each for FF and GP

FF have 9 possibles left. SF 37. FF 30.

Fair shift in the odds which is alluding to 8 FF seats,i haven't checked all but the ones i have they in theory ought to get.
1 or 2 shocks still to come hopefully.

14 to go, FF nee 7 for 38

Cavan, must be a decent chance FG get one of the two spots left.

Dublin SW, one FF looks certain.

Longford, must be one FF, maybe two.

1 Cavan
2 Sligo
1 or 2 Longford
1 Wicklow
1 Dublin Sw

That looks it for FF
Longford might bring a  tie in seats yet?

Sligo, one FF looks certain, possibly two.

Wicklow might be iffy?

Dublin SW if one FF now.

Looks to me as if Fg needs to stop 1 of the 2 Sligo seats now.

Have their work cut out though.

3 constituencies to go. SF 37. FF 34. Five possibles for FF. Well, FG must have a chance of taking one of the two remaining seats in Cavan. It's any four from five in Wicklow but nothing certain. Sligo could be one FF, one FG and an IO.

The independent has just won a Sligo seat.

And one of the FG candidates in Sligo has been knocked out surely meaning that his votes will mostly transfer to his FG colleague? That would mean only one FF.

Hopefully transfers nuts, FG must get 1 in Sligo i still think. look sure of getting at least 1 in Wicklow+ cavan

Sorry, FF look sure of getting at least 1 from each of other 2 counties^

Bang on re transfer PP,hopefully.

Same can be said tho for 2 FF candidates in Cavan who are near bottom of pile,hence getting 2 FF in there.

Yeah, could be but if the independent or FG mostly transfers to the other in the event they are knocked out?

Ok, the AON candidate has been eliminated in Cavan. The transfer needs to go to the FG.

And as expected, now one of the FF has been knocked out in Cavan but small miracle needed for FG to finish ahead of the other two FF candidates after new transfer from eliminated FF.

SF 37. FF 34. FG 33. Seven seats left from three constituencies.

"Led all the way,weakened inside last 50 yards,caught on line."

That is my glass is half empty synopsis, great run though.

fuse went out before the bomb went off!

Feb 10, 2020 -- 10:02PM, pa lapsy wrote:

"Led all the way,weakened inside last 50 yards,caught on line."That is my glass is half empty synopsis, great run though.

The judge has called for a print.

Didn't take long before someone sh1t in the nest .

Needs to apologize , being tired etc is no excuse .  Did Mary Lou comment ?

Up to now , no one really cared if some shinner shot his mouth off  , but when the prospect of helping to run the country beckons you have to mind your p's and q's . Lots of people who voted Sinn Fein last Saturday may have to take a raincheck regarding that .

Sinn Fein are also an all Ireland party , the only one , so have to keep an eye on both sides of the border . The independents who might be crucial will also be unhappy with the "outburst" .  Think it may have cost Mary Lou more than she thinks .

And you don't hand the DUP and co ammunition . When your main policy is to unify the island , language and behaviour is paramount .

I still remember the weekend when the Sinn Fein representatives all morphed into suits . As if by magic !

Why would anybody apologise, all the parties history is involved in the armed struggle, obviously Sinn Fein more recent. The other parties claimed their 1916 history so it's nonsense to decry the Deise Td. I personally thought it was brilliant. **** the DUP drug dealin g scum

one FF and one FG from Sligo. Now it's SF 37. FF 35. FG 34. Five seats left from two constituencies.

2 left and FF should get them

36 FF 37 SF two left, FF transfer will do you almost certainly.

Only 126 votes and 800+ behind. cruel

Wicklow and Cavan remaining. One and two FF?

Ah, FF have Wicklow seat I see. Cavan remaining as you say.

Yes but 3rd FF got knocked out,surely FG will hardly get the transfers.

I'll shut my eyes and say "i believe" to myself anyway.

Brilliant contest, really enjoyed it.

I did too,thanks in most part to the thread.

'Up the Ra'  what a fcuking idiot in this day and age

Agreed , pecker , and costly I suspect .

38 , 37 , 35 .  Sinn Fein missed a trick , not enough candidates . Arguably Fianna Fail fared worse than Fine Gael who took a lot of the "hit" associated with their liaison because their guys were on the front page most nights in the last year due to Brexit coverage ( Brexit itself not being a significant factor ) . Martin , Fianna Fail leader would have not done anywhere near as good a job re Brexit as Varadker and Coveney did .

Still cannot see Mary Lou gathering up the 44 extra she needs to get a majority  , the logical solution to forming a government is for Fianna Fail plus Fine Gael , plus a few other like minded individuals getting together for a true coalition , where every decision is taken on a "cabinet basis". There is not much difference politically between most of that "alliance" regarding their view of government , basically middle of the road .  But they would need to take on board the huge vote garnered by Sinn Fein regarding some very substantive and valid issues among the younger voters in particular .

Can see another election in the offing . Not sure of the timescales involved , although I know that Leo is still Taoiseach .

Kelly when you no longer have the rights and privileges of being a British citizen you can call yourself whatever you want , I don’t care
Until then you are British .

Andy Murray ? I think everyone knows he is Scottish
And of course British

Given the state of world politics where there seems to be an increasing "disconnect" between those in charge and the views of the people in the street , maybe Ireland could take a lead in re establishing the validity of the democratic process as a viable political model .

I have in mind an extra tier in the decision validation process . A so called "peoples parliament " where selected individuals had a say in "passing" policy as formatted by a cabinet led Government . In these days of instant communication availability that is a practical proposition , once upon a time it would have been deemed unwieldy and unworkable . Keeping the "Government" in touch with "ordinary people" and discounting the political chicanery and empire building beloved by a lot of politicians . Keeping the political "animals"in touch with the people .

Government "ministers" would essentially become "super civil servants" , carrying out the collective will . In a small country like Ireland nobody is "out in the sticks" unless they want to be , internet/ phone connections are now at a level that anyone can be in touch anywhere in the world any time needed .

Occasionally there would be a need for "emergency activity" such as the banking crisis , but even then most people could be involved , not just the few chosen to be rounded up at 4.30 am .

One thing is for sure , across the world there are more and more "ordinary"people disenchanted by political leaders  , maybe time to look at more "democratic " procedures .

I don't like the idea of a another 'peoples parliament'. It reminds me too much of those who wanted a 'peoples vote, ie people who couldn't accept a democratic vote

In the UK our system of government works pretty well , as long as we can vote every 5 years that's fine.

Lots of people do not agree with you lfc regarding the current UK procedures for electing a Government . Even in the latest landslide victory for Boris and co less than 50%  of eligible voters cast it for them .

Government is meant to be fair to all citizens in their jurisdiction . That well organised pressure groups ( such as Tories or Labour) are effectively capable of imposing their particular views on everybody is essentially undemocratic . PR does limit the "first past the post" mantra , but can be unwieldy , I just think there must be a better way given the change in education prevalent in this country , added to 24/7 communication availability .

But when the "system" decrees that Parliament is "sovereign" , getting change into place is uphill struggle . Those in power have as their first rule "get re-elected" . The only way to change things is by "street politics" , French and Russian style historically , but that is messy  , better if it can be sorted out by reasoned and sensible debate .

Kelly it’s very simple if there is a policy you favour vote for a political party that favours that policy . If it’s a good policy and likely to attract votes then more than one party might have the same policy . That’s fine you have a choice . Look at some other policies and see if there are others you like . And so on. It’s not difficult and it’s very democratic .
Moreso than thinking that every policy you think is a good idea has to happen when most people don’t agree WITH YOU
I know you may find that difficult to understand or accept , too bad

Careful, Kelly. lfc1971 has designated you as his new carer.

So if you vote for your local independent because he/she has done a good job locally but you oppose that policies of the party in power, how can your vote make a difference to national politics and mandates.

Undeniably scary that , Die Linke .

lfc , I understand the principle of voting completely , it is the subsequent activity of the "winners" which is important . If the "winners" choose to completely ignore those who did not vote for them , that is a recipe for discontent and running discord . Policies which improve the body politic are fine , but if they don't meet with across the board approval , favouring one set of citizens over another , it is a poor way to advance the concept of democracy .

If a substantial number of the citizens in a country are unhappy with how the country is run , it is asking for trouble , history bears that out . The country needs to have most of its populace "on board" to maximise progress , second world war a good example , everyone pulling the same way against poor odds initially , largely due to your ( and Boris's) hero , Winston . A lesson there , and Churchill was very much in the minority and his handle on the evolving situation in Germany was not a "majority " view .

Boris just conducting his "teach in " to his new cabinet , learning their "lines " by rote .  Laughable if it was not so serious .

Hitler and Goebbels ran their country and government on a single track mindset , anyone who failed to toe the line or queried policy was disposed off ( some actually) . The concept of free speech was severely sidelined , those who could read the tea leaves and could afford it bailed out .

History has a way of repeating itself , not always in such dramatic circumstances as occurred in Germany 1933-1939 .

Boris must have had a very charismatic headmaster in his public school days , the way he treats his cabinet is very much in the style of morning assembly where pupils bow down and learn their lesson for the day .

Pupils smiling and nodding their assent . Think about it .

why are you wasting your time on this tiny gambling site prating away

yes the brown shirts were on the march and they are still there but in you favoured party currently in disarray

moisok , I have never voted Labour or Conservative , neither option ever having been a runner here in Northern Ireland where down to historical Westminster policy decisions we are divided on sectarian grounds . I do vote Alliance , the one significant party in Northern Ireland with a non sectarian view on politics here . Recent events and voting indicate that my views are shared by increasing numbers of my fellow citizens here .

I take that as a plus , hopefully we continue to progress , but we are not happy with Julian Smith being sacked . Big mistake . Huge .  To quote Julia Roberts .

A very bizarre sacking. Some reports, that have been rubbished, are that he sanctioned an investigation into crimes by British soldiers and kept BJ in the dark about it. That's hard to believe.

Bizarre is understatement , the mover . Sadly his removal will only be viewed positively by one party here . And the direction the new kid on the block takes us will be key . Meanwhile momentum for change will grow due to Smiths demotion , feeling abroad here that Boris and co would find it more convenient to be rid of Northern Ireland , because of Good Friday and "border" implications .

Might just have played into Sinn Feins hands , despite the logic in Westminster being that it might suit the DUP.  DUP are a minority in Northern Ireland , just look at votes , not just MP's at Westminster . Reality , and a good few DUP stalwarts are farmers , who are going to be shafted outside the EU  post 31st December . And farmers are not mobile , they depend on their land which is firmly in ( Northern ) Ireland .

Recent debates here on TV have various representatives spouting figures regarding NHS , queues therein , and comparing some costs unfavourably south vs north . No one seems to be aware that average salary in Northern Ireland is £25k ( max) and the average in south is 40,000 euros . Old age pension in North is approximately £680 per month , in south over 1000 euros . Benefits in other spheres for disadvantaged workwise are more generous in south than in north .  Those figures leave a lot of wriggle room in my book , particularly for those who pay no tax  , under and over 65's .

Propaganda and actuality are horses of a different colour .

And still no sign of the RHI report , it has been a year since they stopped taking evidence . And they keep telling us that we live in a very efficiently administered jurisdiction in the UK . Only when it suits some .

If the electorate are not happy with the government of Bojo or Bojo himself then they have the right to street protest eg Poll Tax or vote him out in the nect General Election - that's the democracy of this country. But, please stop bleating and preaching to the "brexiteers/winners" about "Democracy" or "Troubles Ahead" from a substantial number of the citizens who'd not voted for Brexit or Bojo.

The sacking of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Mr Julian Smith is certainly not Northern Ireland specific. However, I do agree the locals liked him, and he was doing a good job there and highly regarded. It's to do with "Tory Party internal politics", as widely reported.

A substantial number could still be a minority in a democracy eg 100/250 or 100k/250k; 40% is substantial, but still a minority.

Impossible123 , when ( and if) "internal Tory party politics" threaten to disadvantage us here in Northern Ireland are we not allowed to make comment in such a world wide democracy as the UK , governed as we are by the "mother of Parliaments" ? The concept abroad among lots of those who "won" the last election seems to be that anyone who has a point of view non concurrent with Boris is unpatriotic and  should be silent .

That is a theme running through a lot of Boris supporters on here .  Guess they all buy into Headmaster Boris's morning assembly style of address to his inner sanctum cabinet , does nobody cringe when they see that?

I understand. But, as one is just a cog in a wheel one has to sit and suffer, if necessary eg The UK in The EU ie a net contributor and the minnow geriatrics leaders making all the rules and running The EU like a personal fiefdom.

However, if I was Northern Irish I'd protest on the streets, and might even engage "chicken" Corbyn (he's much less busy these days) as chief activist and speaker. Regards the position of Boris, I just like him to get UK Plc respectable and great once again like the old days. And, I'd like the people of The UK to give him a bit more them before judging him - he's only been in office since 13th Dec 2019 esp with Brexit on his shoulders too.

I forgot to ask. Is Mr Varadkar history now? His Party only managed 3rd largest sit won, and behind Sinn Fein too. Surely, he cannot be Taoiseach.

sadly incredibly, he could alternate with mickey,as they gang up on sinn fein, expect backlash and another election not a distant possibility

That's outrageous. Sinn Fein - the Party that came 2nd in a 3 Party contest - in a coalition can be left-out in a power-sharing structure where Fine Gael came last is non-democratic and insulting to the electorate of Ireland.

Time's change, and people have changed just a great shame Sinn Fein are still not accepted by the two main political groups in Ireland despite their electorate voted for them.

FF won the election, presumably they should have first chance to form a government.

We don't expect the tory party and labour to form a coalition (under any circumstances except perhaps wartime)

The result was so close surely 1st and 2nd ought to take turn to be government, and nether can be left out whereas the 3rd (and former government) cannot be asked to partake as they were voted out of office.

Cling on to that Lfc,the conscience of brexiteers breaking up Great Britain must be huge.

Months,a few years,a decade even, doesn't matter after hundreds of years.

Even if a coalition is formed to spite SF,people aren't that gullible,doubt it would last too long.

PL I am not worried about the U.K. breaking up . If that is what Scotland or N Ireland wishes
I don’t think the majority of Scottish people want that , or even the maj in N Ireland
Might be wrong but that is a decision for them , that’s fine

Scotland within The EU will get subsidies (hand-outs) similar to the minnow pariah new EU members. But, the money will need to come from somewhere within The EU ie the handful of net contributors. But, this pot of money is getting progressively smaller with time significantly less when Germany then possibly France initiate their colossal rebate over the coming years.

Scotland only had their Independence Referendum in 2014, and another one will not be for at least another decade and probably longer, I firmly believe.

FF did not win the election, they had the CC, GIVING THEM THE EXTRA SEAT.

Mary lou's party got the bigger vote and the people surveyed topped her for Taois

Have not been following developments since last week , must tune in . Hard to deny the biggest vote share a place at the table .  If there is another election soon , FF and FG will surely steal some of the Sinn Fein vote back by promising definite action to tackle legitimate issues which affected the vote .  At the end of the day Sinn Fein might have problems in Government , given the traditional conservatism of the Irish electorate. .

The next Irish Government market seems to be missing quite a few runners including Paddy Power joint fav FF/FG /GREEN/SD

Feb 19, 2020 -- 12:03PM, spurs to buy big wrote:

The next Irish Government market seems to be missing quite a few runners including Paddy Power joint fav FF/FG /GREEN/SD

It's extremely difficult for any bookmaker/exchange to offer odds on every eventuality in such a complex market.

I hear ya  but it is  a little easier  for BF as per their rules  "Independent  don't count for the purposes of this market" .  Surely they should have the Joint Favourite listed ?

You can contact betfair and request contracts to be added to the market.

will do cheers

Ireland, Amárach Research poll:

Scenario: Government formation fails

SF-LEFT: 35% (+10)
FG-EPP: 18% (-3)
FF-RE: 17% (-5)
GREEN-Greens/EFA: 9% (+2)
SOCDEM-S&D: 5% (+2)
S-PBP-LEFT: 3%
LAB-S&D: 3% (-1)

+/- vs. 8 February election

Fieldwork: 16 February 2020
Sample size: 1,040

Vote yesterday to elect a leader in the Dail . Mary Lou headed the poll , 45 votes when she needed 80 out of 160 .  Hardly a majority view . The concept that the country supports a Sinn Fein led government has to be queried , I can see another election where pre election coalitions are clearly stated and let the electorate express their views on prospective alliances .

Leo is still "acting" Taoiseach , despite resigning officially . Leo and Simon still represent the best "team" in any representation of Ireland abroad .  Unsettled times .

Latest opinion poll has Sinn Fein on 35, a serious consolidation....

Ireland, Behaviour and Attitudes poll:

SF-LEFT: 35%
FG-EPP: 21% (+3)
FF-RE: 19% (-1)
GREEN-Greens/EFA: 6%
LAB-S&D: 3%
S-PBP-LEFT: 3%
SD-S&D: 1% (-1)

+/- vs. 17-25 Feb

Fieldwork:  27/02/20-10/03/20

Shutting the pubs over St Patricks Day isn't going to do much for FG's ratings.

It probably is funnily enough, their handling of the virus crisis seems quite good, SF looks to have missed the boat.