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politicspunter
01 Feb 20 12:39
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Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 41,433 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Ireland, Panelbase poll:

FF-RE: 23% (-1)
SF-LEFT: 21% (+7)
FG-EPP: 19% (-7)
GREEN-G/EFA: 10% (+7)
LAB-S&D: 5% (-2)
SD-S&D: 5% (+2)
S-PBP-LEFT: 5% (+1)

+/- vs. 2016 election

Fieldwork: 24-30 January 2020
Sample size: 1,000

Sinn Fein move into second place in opinion polls as their vote continues to increase.

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Replies: 168
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Feb 20 12:41
They are 40/1 in places for most seats which looks a bit on the high side.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Feb 20 13:23
Traditionally for a 100 years it is either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, i personnally can't see Sinn Fein getting the most vote,maybe their best chance is a coalition with FF because it won't be with FG.

Despite doing well with brexit and the economy, FG look a "weak" party with Harris and co,unfortuneately it looks as if country is going to forget/forgive FF re the "lost" 10 years.

Just gut feeling and maybe someone with a bit more knowledge would put you right.
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Feb 20 13:28
Ireland, Panelbase poll:

Approval Rating

McDonald (SF-LEFT): 34%
Varadkar (FG-EPP): 33%
Martin (FF-RE): 31%
Ryan (GREEN-G/EFA): 27%
Howlin (Labour-S&D): 15%

Fieldwork: 24-30 January 2020
Sample size: 1,000

Election: 8 February
By:
politicspunter
When: 01 Feb 20 23:54
If you are going to bet anything on Sinn Fein you should do it now.
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Feb 20 00:05
Ireland, Red C poll:

SF-LEFT: 24% (+5)
FF-RE: 24% (-2)
FG-EPP: 21% (-2)
GREEN-G/EFA: 7% (-1)
LAB-S&D: 5% (+1)
SD-S&D: 3%
AONTÚ-*: 2% (+1)
S-PBP-LEFT: 1% (-1)

+/- vs. 16-22 Jan

Fieldwork: 25-30 January 2020
Sample size: 1,000
By:
keen leader
When: 02 Feb 20 21:21
They are 40/1 in places for most seats which looks a bit on the high side.


true price is nearer 1000/1. 
there are 160 seats, Sf are running only 42 candidates, with at least 6 duds amongst them. If they get to 30 it will be remarkable for the communists.
FF sure things for most seats, a tally of 50+ likely, as they are at least running 80+ candidates.

one historic trend from Irish polls, always add +3 to the FF poll, as they have the shy Tory effect, and conversely Sf tend to poll 2 to 4 points above the real vote.
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Feb 20 21:50
FF sure things for most seats, a tally of 50+ likely,

What makes you think that?
By:
Kelly
When: 02 Feb 20 22:00
While not living in the south , I find the poll figures puzzling . The concept of Sinn Fein being the largest party after the election does not fit in with what I observe as life and politics in the Republic .

Maybe it is different on the ground , next Saturday may yield a different look to Government in the south .

Guess we will have to wait and see how the ball hops .
By:
pa lapsy
When: 02 Feb 20 22:07
Betting isn't always right PP,however looking at IRISH book pp.

Seat betting;

FF under 53.5 1/2 , over 53.5 6/4
FG under 35.5 8/11, over 35.5 8/11
SF under 28.5 8/15, over 28.5 5/4

The betting is backing Keen Leaders post as the spread is at 28.5, as said they aren't always right but there looks too much here unless something seismic changes the gooalposts.
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Feb 20 22:23

Feb 2, 2020 -- 10:07PM, pa lapsy wrote:


Betting isn't always right PP,however looking at IRISH book pp.Seat betting;FF under 53.5 1/2 , over 53.5 6/4FG under 35.5 8/11, over 35.5 8/11SF under 28.5 8/15, over 28.5 5/4The betting is backing Keen Leaders post as the spread is at 28.5, as said they aren't always right but there looks too much here unless something seismic changes the gooalposts.


Ok, fair enough, but the number I am finding hardest to tie up is this 50+ seats figure for FF. In the last election (2016) FF got 24.3% of the vote and achieved 44 seats (they currently have 45). In the polls they are currently running at 24.5%. Although the FG polling is down, the Sinn Fein opinion polling is way up since 2016 as is the Green Party. Surely it's not going to be straightforward for FF to jump to over 50 seats?

By:
pa lapsy
When: 02 Feb 20 22:25
Interestingly PP,s most seat is a contradiction.

FF 1/8
FG 6/1
SF 10/1

I can't quite figure out the what seems remarkably stingy  10/1 in relation to what they expect in their seat spread, it would be a not uncommon tactic by books to keep prices tight though.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 02 Feb 20 22:33
FF rightly got the blame for as said above for the austerity and crash,FG has benefited from that but a way over the odds childrens hospital,ditto internet, water charges,hospital beds and the rest, looks as if it is going to cost FG, espite a goodish economy and handling brexit well.
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Feb 20 22:36
I have FF as favourites but 1/8 is far from appealing.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 02 Feb 20 22:42
To be honest,i wouldn't touch it (1/8) either, the brexit handling and economy would have me looking at 6/1 FG most seats. However i have no idea of the strength of candidates in both parties and my gut is screaming FG's are weak hence hand in pocket.
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Feb 20 22:48
8.0 FG on here always seems to get matched I have found. I am far from confident but they have a better chance than current odds suggest I feel.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 02 Feb 20 23:02
I agree with that,re reading Keen Leaders post again the 80+ candidates is maybe a telling factor?

Not lick arsing but he knows the price of fish.
By:
politicspunter
When: 02 Feb 20 23:06
Yes, he has convinced me regarding the correct price Sinn Fein should be.
By:
keen leader
When: 03 Feb 20 00:57
1/8 ff for most seats is now a dead cert with fg in meltdown.

Politicspunter you need to study the 2019 Irish local elections for the last actual poll and FF were on 27%.
They only needed an upward shift of 3% in Dublin to win 5 or 6 extra seats(having been decimated there in 2011).

Also you must remember they are several strong independents running in constituencies and most are what we call FF genepool which means if they are eliminated they transfer heavily to ff candidates.

In 2016 FG got a bonus of about 6 or 7 seats due to transfers from the Labour. With Labour on its knees there is no bonus this time.

In the event of FG flopping and dropping to 20-22%(my call), then in last seats in constituencies, expect FG to transfer to FF rather than left leaning(especially in rural districts), and this time FF will be the beneficiary of the bonus seats from transfers.

Sf tend to be transfer repellent as FF or FG voters will not give them transfers, and such is the in fighting on the left and far left, they don't gain from that quarter either, and Sf candidates tend to be dependent on their first preference and if it is not sufficient then they are marooned.

with the collapse of FG(my view is that the public think they have been in power for too long and want a change), only one other party can win the most seats and that is FF.

True odds on most seats right now: FF 1.03, FG 33/1...rest any price you want as they don't figure in winning this market.
By:
politicspunter
When: 03 Feb 20 10:52
Thanks keen leader. The problem I have with FF is that they seem to be going down in recent opinion polls, most recent last...

32,25,26,27,23,24.

They achieved 24.3% in the 2016 general election and got 44 seats.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 03 Feb 20 11:25
As you are interested in polls PP,good piece regarding them in this;

google- rte, poll of polls.
By:
politicspunter
When: 03 Feb 20 11:47
Thank you, that's along similar lines to my estimate but with Sinn Fein only running 42 candidates it's not easy to be certain how things will work out. Interestingly, FF is estimated to get 43 seats, ranging from 41-44, so a fair bit below the 53.5 Paddy Power market from last night which I notice this morning they have reduced to 51.5.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 03 Feb 20 18:45
Don't think FF will get a spike as such, just remain competitive.

I think plus 20 is realistic for Sinn Fein, but who will form a government with them.

My bet would be that this next government do not see out the term.
By:
politicspunter
When: 03 Feb 20 21:49
Ireland, Ipsos MRBI poll:

SF-LEFT: 25% (+4)
FF-RE: 23% (-2)
FG-EPP: 20% (-3)
GREEN-G/EFA: 8%
LAB-S&D: 4% (-1)

+/- vs. 16-18 Jan
By:
politicspunter
When: 04 Feb 20 17:29
Ireland, Ipsos MRBI poll:

Approval Rating

McDonald (SF-LEFT): 41% (+7)
Martin (FF-RE): 30% (-3)
Varadkar (FG-EPP): 30% (-5)

+/- vs. 16-18 Jan

Sample size: 1,200
Fieldwork: ...-1 February 2020
By:
politicspunter
When: 04 Feb 20 17:30
Ireland, Ipsos MRBI poll:

Preferred Future Taoiseach [Head of Government and European Council representative]

Martin (FF-RE): 24%
Varadkar (FG-EPP): 23%
McDonald (SF-LEFT): 20%

Sample size: 1,200
Fieldwork: ...-1 February 2020
By:
peckerdunne
When: 04 Feb 20 18:18
PP Live debate tonight

Micky and Leo will be all out for Sinn Fein, the past, the future, the bodies etc etc


Mary Lou won't shrivel under the scrutiny but the upshot is who will blunder or faulter tonight will be unable to recover
By:
politicspunter
When: 04 Feb 20 18:42
Ah, thanks for that. Will check out reaction to that one.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 04 Feb 20 22:04
What a mud slinging contest.............
By:
peckerdunne
When: 04 Feb 20 22:45
Half Time

Once again it seems MLOU is excellent at getting TV face time even though they contrive to prevent her, including presenters, but she just bats them away for a couple of runs each time...She is well in control here, she has the facts and she has the jibes...

The 2 boys 'tweedle dumb and tweedle dee' are going around in circles and not having a positive impact i would ascertain..........
By:
politicspunter
When: 04 Feb 20 22:54
Thank you. Currently, I am deep in the mud slinging battle in Iowa which is a total fiasco.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 04 Feb 20 22:55
Laugh
By:
peckerdunne
When: 05 Feb 20 18:49
media trying to say how a couple of blows landed on MLou, bias off course.

one point had her in a spot re finance minister conor murphy in the north, but that was cleared up and sent packing today

all i can say is wathcing irish news Mlou is swamped on her walk abouts, they can't get enough and all the women are with her

they are going to have a major impact, shame they did not run a few more candidates
By:
mukdahan
When: 05 Feb 20 18:52
Always do well polls but on the actually day tend to under perform as there voters don"t turn out.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 05 Feb 20 18:57
true, but not this time is my guess, she has the womens vote
By:
mukdahan
When: 05 Feb 20 19:10
She has no support of people over 40 absolutely detested, neither of the main two parties would ever enter a coalition with those eejits.
By:
treetop
When: 05 Feb 20 21:09
Sounds like Labour all over again at the last election, big build up but unelectable on the day.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 05 Feb 20 22:41
Some detest shinners but they don't detest Mlou
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 Feb 20 23:09
Don't think it is just an Irish thing but so many politicians in it just for themselves,something never right with political dynasties,too much of that.
I know election promises aren't worth a lot but personally like theirs(SF).Agree with above post it is a little early for them but next time around will have a fair chance.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 05 Feb 20 23:23
Paddys have a special at 5/2,SF in goverment with 1 cabinet minister @ 5/2,given there was very input on the overall betting any thoughts on that?  Will their be goverment without a SF coaltion? both FF and FG have said they won't,i tend to believe FG when they say they won't but as it stands now they look out if that was the case.
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