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differentdrum
10 Oct 19 20:40
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 14,148 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-myths-busting-polling-second-referendum-leave-remain-a9149491.html

Time has moved on. The most anti-democratic thing you could do is to deliver Brexit against the current will of the people.

Let's face it if leavers were confident that the majority still wanted to leave we would have already gone down the second referendum route and settled the issue. If we ever get to a second referendum they know the game is up.

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Replies: 150
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 20:44
Ah differentdrum , leavers gave something to lose , remainers don’t

That’s selfish , go away
By:
flushgordon1
When: 10 Oct 19 20:44
Once the referendum is carried out you can have another one , in 40 years or so.
By:
moisok
When: 10 Oct 19 20:44
No they are not. Can we implement the first one then consider a second one a few years later.  That would be the DEMOCRATIC way or are we going to be selective about what we accept.  You know, like each general election etc?
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 20:46
* leavers have something to lose , remainers don’t

Try and not be so selfish different drum ,
Remainers are like that Sad
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 20:46
Now if you are nice you should ask leavers nicely

The answer is no
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 20:51
moisok the Irish and the eu have a fair point of view
Yes it is difficult to get around the Irish border question

If that can be solved , with a little bit of a fudge in the Irish Sea
Then I think the Irish and the eu will be ok
The remainers will be seething
By:
Angoose
When: 10 Oct 19 20:54
The loudest voices on all sides of the Brexit debate have two things in common: they all seem convinced that they know what the public thinks, and they all believe that their supporters are in the majority. Their arguments are generally premised on myths, which they tend to fall back on where evidence would do much better. So, based on the most recent polling, here are four of those myths – busted.

Myth one: “Voters are so fed up with the whole process that they just want to get Brexit done.”

The slogan “Get Brexit Done” dominated the set at last week’s Conservative Party conference. But however fed up voters feel, most think that the right outcome – their preferred form of Brexit, or staying in the European Union after all – matters more than a quick resolution.

Recent Opinium surveys asked voters whether they agreed with the statement, “I don’t care how or on what terms Britain leaves the EU as long as we leave as soon as possible.” Just one in three said they did.

Myth two: “Voters haven’t changed their minds about Brexit since the 2016 referendum.”

It’s true that more than eight out of 10 voters say they would vote the same way in a fresh referendum as they did last time. But among the minority, more Leave than Remain voters are having second thoughts.

Figures in individual polls vary slightly, but an average of recent surveys shows a steady 53-47 per cent preference for Remain. This represents a five-point swing to Remain since 2016. Few general elections produce bigger swings than this.

Shifts away from Leave are greatest among working class voters under 50, NHS nurses and mothers of young children – voters attracted three years ago by hopes of higher-paid jobs and better-funded public services, but who now fear the impact of Brexit on both.

YouGov surveys show that while Conservatives who voted Leave in 2016 are still solidly behind Brexit, more than one in four Labour-supporting Leave voters now either back Remain or don’t know how they would vote.

Myth three: “If voters were persuaded in a new referendum to vote the same way as last time, Leave would win once again.”

This the assumption underlying the unofficial slogan, “tell them again”. Its truth seems obvious – but in fact, it’s not the case.

Two and a half million teenagers have reached voting age since 2016. Although turnout in this age group tends to be low, those that would vote are overwhelmingly in favour of wanting Britain to stay in the EU.

Over the same period, two million Britons have died. Older voters divided two-to-one in favour of Brexit in 2016.

Taking these two demographic factors together, and allowing for turnout differences, a referendum today would result in 600-700,000 more Remain voters and 800-900,000 fewer Leave voters – even if not a single person changed their mind. As the Leave majority three years ago was just under 1.3 million, this means that a referendum today would produce a Remain majority on demographic factors alone.

Myth four: “Voters don’t want another referendum.”

Brenda from Bristol’s reaction to the start of the 2017 general election – “you’re joking, not another one” – is widely thought to reflect majority views on a fresh referendum. It doesn’t.

One way or another, the final decision about Brexit must be taken by either MPs or the wider electorate. The latest YouGov survey finds that, by almost two-to-one, voters say that if Britain is to leave the EU without a deal, the decision should be taken by a referendum than by parliament. If a deal is agreed with Brussels, the margin widens to more than two-to-one.
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 20:56
Very good angoose , leavers don’t give two hoots what remainers want , sorry
By:
Angoose
When: 10 Oct 19 20:57
Yes, they're selfish, aren't they.
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 20:59
Yes
By:
moisok
When: 10 Oct 19 21:10
The majority voted for it during the referendum.  Nothing selfish.  But then working for the Eu propaganda department you would spout all their trashy propaganda.
By:
moisok
When: 10 Oct 19 21:13
strangely despite the Eu propaganda most people aren't interested in another referendum - not just leavers-
People just want to get on with their lives here in Landan - when the XR rabble allow them
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 21:13
never try to explain things to remainers moisok

they don’t desterve it and wouldn’t understand anyway
By:
feedthepony
When: 10 Oct 19 21:15
I’m a leaver and I’m good with a second referendum but has to be a different question - ‘should the UK rejoin the EU?’

Let’s get out
By:
lfc1971
When: 10 Oct 19 21:21
Very good point , they can ask that in 40 years time
By:
k sera sera
When: 10 Oct 19 22:06
I think the real questions to be asked is "why are Remoaners refusing to accept the result of a democratic referendum?", and "why will they only accept a referendum result if they win?".

To have another referendum so soon after the "once in a generation" event would be the biggest betrayal of democracy and would completely destroy faith in democratic process.
By:
Angoose
When: 11 Oct 19 10:15
Once again, we have the same worn out soundbites rolled out in an attempt to defend the increasingly un-defendable.
One thousand two hundred and five days.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 11 Oct 19 10:25
k sera sera spells it out nicely.

Yes why won't the remainers accept the result of the referendum?

Perhaps the EU's influence on their actions goes far deeper than we imagined.
By:
differentdrum
When: 11 Oct 19 14:43
You would think crushing four myths would be enough but leavers appear to invent new ones on a daily basis.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 11 Oct 19 14:47
Don't bother.

Let all 17.4m vote the same way again, and still lose the confirmatory ref.

We need to convince the middle fifth, that's all.
By:
FredRescue
When: 11 Oct 19 15:09
Leavers are more than confident there is a leave majority.

Apart from the undemocratic nature of running a 2nd referendum without implementing the first, the problem with those proposing a 2nd referendum is that

a. They want to split the leave vote by defining the specific nature of the "leave" option, while just having a generic "remain" option on the ballot paper as the alternative. Note that, remoaniacs will not specify what "remain" means for the future only that "remain is remain". No detail on whether it means a EU federal state, joining the Euro, further increases to EU contributions, further EU expansion, EU army etc etc because they say that will be decided by politicians at a later date. 
However they ignore the first referendum because they specifically did not want politicians to decide what "leave" means at a later date.

b. They want to have remain on the ballot paper at all when it has already been rejected.
By:
Platini
When: 11 Oct 19 15:30
Meanwhile, Turkey is about to unleash millions more illegal immigrants across Europe

that will play well in a 2nd Brexit Ref Cool


so be careful what you wish for, you mugs LaughLaugh
By:
Angoose
When: 11 Oct 19 15:40
They have threatened to.
Our Prime Minister has also threatened to defy the law.
By:
themover
When: 11 Oct 19 16:06
when did he say that?
By:
politicspunter
When: 11 Oct 19 18:04

Oct 11, 2019 -- 4:06PM, themover wrote:


when did he say that?


All the time and he has already done so according to the Supreme Court.

By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 12 Oct 19 11:11
We will spend many more months arguing over the exact nature of  "the question"....Haven't seen a sensible (fair) suggestion yet ...

Hundreds of 000's preparing the march for "the final say "...The final say on what ?  ...What is the question ?... What exactly are you marching for ?   ...
By:
Angoose
When: 12 Oct 19 11:23
Your forum name does appear to add a certain element of irony to your question.Happy
By:
themover
When: 12 Oct 19 11:25

Oct 11, 2019 -- 6:04PM, politicspunter wrote:


Oct 11, 2019 --  4:06PM, themover wrote:when did he say that?All the time and he has already done so according to the Supreme Court.


Artile 50 is written in EU which says the UK will leave the EU on the 31st October deal or no deal. Please can you show me where an Act passed in the UK takes precedent over an EU law. tia

By:
Angoose
When: 12 Oct 19 11:27
When the EU agrees to that change.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 12 Oct 19 11:49
Johnny The Guesser12 Oct 19 11:11Joined: 15 Apr 02 | Topic/replies: 697 | Blogger: Johnny The Guesser's blog
We will spend many more months arguing over the exact nature of  "the question"....Haven't seen a sensible (fair) suggestion yet ..


Leave/Remain

Leave being whatever it is on ref day, Remain meaning staying on the exact terms we have now.

It ain't complicated.
By:
lfc1971
When: 12 Oct 19 11:52
Sorry biscuits we’ve got a deal
The EU are going to kick you boys into touch Grin
By:
lfc1971
When: 12 Oct 19 11:54
They’re not really impressed with the remainers grovelling either
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Oct 19 16:40
2.56 to 'Leave' by Dec 2019 - it could finally happen. We'll be rid of The EU by the year end, and no more propping up pariah economies who ought never have been considered to join The European Economic Community.
By:
politicspunter
When: 12 Oct 19 16:44
The brexit betting markets are a minefield. I would steer clear of them.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 12 Oct 19 16:51
They're volatile - but it will be significant if, tomorrow, Govt put-ups *don't* double down on a Halloween exit.
Because a condition for Govt figure appearing thus far was to stress the date.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 12 Oct 19 17:04
So, for example, the price for UK exit by 31/10 is 3/1.
If the Home Secretary is primed to spin the Brexit-loon line tomorrow morning - yadda yadda - but won't die in a ditch foe an 31st Oct exit, you can pretty much surmise that Govt has reneged from that position. A clear tell, alongside the price of an exit
On the other hand, if she doubles down on the date, that indicates troubles ahead between Govt and ERG.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 12 Oct 19 17:07
The price has gone from 4.0 to 2.7 and back to 4.0 in a day.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.157669732

I'm not involved, but tempted
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 12 Oct 19 17:09
But if the price is ending up as boring as politicspunter, look before you leap.
By:
moisok
When: 12 Oct 19 18:33
DOWN THE RIVER  -   going going - gone    SOLD  ho ho
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