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enpassant
09 Sep 19 20:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 Jun 15
| Topic/replies: 9,039 | Blogger: enpassant's blog
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/09/labour-party-general-election-brexit-johnson?fbclid=IwAR0tWqN6cepU1ojqw7lJXYBnpYgm7GcfVYHo2EgUWlwOOMEKSZE848Qq5WU

Everyone agrees that an election is coming in Britain, sooner rather than later. The outcome of parliamentary battles between Boris Johnson and his opponents will decide how and when that election is called. So far, the new prime minister has been coming off worse in those confrontations. But no matter what kind of mauling Johnson gets in the House of Commons, the most important job will still have to be done.

What are the electoral prospects for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, if and when this parliament is dissolved? The most recent opinion polls don’t look promising for Labour, but the same point could have been made in 2017, with even greater force. Can Labour match its surprising result two years ago, which set the scene for the current Tory crisis — or even go one better?

The 2017 UK general election is the closest benchmark we have for what’s going to happen next. Layers of mythology have already piled up around that election: peeling them back will help clarify whether it’s likely to be repeated.
Reading the Runes

It’s become commonplace to argue that opinion polls can no longer be trusted, after a series of electoral shocks like Brexit and Trump. However, it’s more accurate to say we can’t trust the conventional wisdom about how polls should be interpreted.

There were two rules of thumb that should have doomed Labour’s effort in 2017. One said that election campaigns only ever have a marginal impact on a party’s final performance. The other said that whenever there’s a large discrepancy between polling figures from different companies, the average score is the safest guide.

In the month when Theresa May called a snap election, the average polling lead for the Conservative Party was 18.5 percent. There was only one poll that month that gave the Tories an advantage of less than 10 percent. Even that outlier — with a 9 percent gap between Labour and the Conservatives — would have ensured May a decisive victory if it was borne out on voting day.

From the end of April, Labour steadily closed the gap, but the final weeks of the campaign still left a big margin of uncertainty. Of the last ten polls, just three gave the Tories a lead of less than 5 percent; three had them besting Labour by 10 percent or more. Yet the final result saw Theresa May’s party edge past its opponent by just over 2 percent. That was in line with the most optimistic polling forecasts for Labour.

There’s no reason to think the polling companies had it badly wrong when the election was called. Labour was well behind the Tories, by a margin that should have been insurmountable if precedent was any guide. Over the space of two months, that gulf closed to the extent that May lost her parliamentary majority and came close to being surpassed altogether by Corbyn’s party.
Explaining It Away

The result came as a huge shock to Britain’s political pundits, and they were visibly disoriented for some time to come. Eventually they began putting together a reassuring story about what had happened. That story made it possible to deny any credit to Corbyn, his allies, or the movement behind them.

According to this line of argument, it was May and the Conservative Party who had thrown away their advantage with a shoddy campaign that simply highlighted her flaws as a leader. Once this became the orthodoxy about the 2017 election, it was possible to add a further twist: far from deserving any credit for stripping May of her majority, Corbyn should be faulted for not winning the election outright against such a poor opponent.

This comforting tale is inaccurate and disingenuous in every respect. Before the 2017 election, very few people considered May to be a weak, incompetent leader: in fact, she was seen as a formidable operator who could deal a crushing blow to Corbyn’s Labour Party. For anyone who’s forgotten the tone of reporting on May’s premiership, it’s well worth reading the admiring profile by Jason Cowley, editor of the liberal New Statesman, which appeared just four months before her electoral shipwreck. The personality traits that are now depicted as May’s Achilles’ heel struck most commentators as an asset: she was meant to be a sober, serious politician, in contrast with the flashy PR man David Cameron.

The idea that May was the worst prime minister in modern times, heading the worst government, only took hold after the 2017 election. May wanted to face all the strains of implementing Brexit from a position of strength, with a big parliamentary majority. Instead she had to grapple with those contradictions while at the mercy of Tory rebels from either end of the party spectrum, who thought her approach was either too soft or too hard — not to mention the Democratic Unionist Party, whose MPs proved to be another thorn in May’s side.

Any leader in that position would have ended up looking weak. Nine times out of ten in contemporary politics, it’s circumstances that make the man (or woman), not the other way around.
Labour’s Achievement

If May’s election gamble failed, it wasn’t because of a Tory meltdown. Her party’s final result, 42.4 percent, was the best Conservative result in three decades. It was better than Labour’s performance under Tony Blair in 2001, which delivered a majority of almost a hundred seats. It was over 5 percent higher than David Cameron’s 2015 triumph, which also secured a majority in parliament.

May’s objective going into that campaign was to use Brexit as a wedge, winning over enough UKIP and Leave-supporting Labour voters to convert many traditional Labour strongholds into Tory seats. The regional breakdown shows how close she came to achieving this. In some of the key Leave-voting regions, the Tory increase was well above the national figure: 9.1 percent in North East England, 7.8 percent in Yorkshire & Humber, 7.3 percent in East and West Midlands alike, 6.3 percent in Wales. In every British region other than London, the Conservative vote share went up.

What put paid to May’s ambitions was the Labour performance. The vote share for Corbyn’s party went up by a bigger percentage than the Tory increase in every region apart from North East England — even there it was only half a percent smaller — and Scotland, where there was a different political dynamic. In Yorkshire & Humber the Labour vote went up by 9.9 percent, in Wales by 12.1 percent, in Eastern England by 10.7 percent (nearly double the Tory increase in that area). Labour increased its vote in every British region, and by double-digit scores in seven out of twelve.

The big story of the 2017 election was a Labour surge, not a Tory collapse. The party’s 40 percent vote share was higher than the winning performance in the previous three elections, and it hobbled Theresa May’s government in spite of her post-Brexit electoral windfall.

The oft-heard claim that Corbyn should have won outright cannot be taken seriously. Labour’s performance in the 2010 and 2015 elections had been so bad that it was virtually impossible for the party to win a majority in a single bound: there simply weren’t enough constituencies where Labour was in contention to gain a seat.

If Labour had won just 35 percent of the vote — still a big improvement on the results achieved by Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband — May would have come out of the election with her majority strengthened, and no doubt would have pushed through Brexit on her desired terms some time ago. Nobody would be talking now about the “worst government ever.”
Haywire

What does this mean for any snap election? The first lesson is obvious: Labour need not rely on a catastrophic Tory meltdown, since there was no such meltdown in 2017. If Labour could match its campaigning performance from two years ago, that would be enough to put a stop to Johnson’s gallop.

Of course, whether it can repeat that performance is now one of the biggest questions in British politics. The terrain has certainly shifted since June 2017, and the biggest change has come in the last few months.

For all that’s been rightly said about the fallibility of polls, they’re still the best rough guide we have to the state of public opinion. From the last election until the opening months of 2019, Labour’s typical polling was in a range between 35 and 40 percent, sometimes a little higher. The Tories were in much the same position, and the gap between the parties was usually in the low single figures. Then things started to go haywire, as the Brexit crisis took center-stage. Labour and the Conservatives both lost support to smaller groups that could take a harder pro- or anti-Brexit line: Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, or the Scottish and Welsh nationalists.

At first it was the Tories that were most affected by this trend, with their support dropping below 30 percent. But Labour soon took a major hit, especially after the European election in May. Since Boris Johnson became Tory leader, his party has managed to claw back some of the ground it lost, pushing past the 30 percent barrier for the first time since early April. Labour’s polling average since the start of August was still in the mid-20s. But the average Tory lead over that period has been lower than the smallest Tory lead in April 2017. Labour’s position going into a snap election is weaker than its supporters might have hoped for at the start of this year, but stronger than it was when Corbynism faced that previous moment of truth.
Complications

Can Labour do it again? An election held this autumn will differ from 2017 in one vital respect: Brexit will be absolutely central. One striking thing about the 2017 election was the gulf between the Tory and Labour electorates: not in the sense of being pro- or anti-Brexit, but in the importance that they gave to the issue. One survey found that Brexit was by far the most significant factor motivating Tory voters: 48 percent said that it was the most important issue for them in choosing how to vote. In contrast, just 8 percent of Labour voters said that Brexit was the most important issue (33 percent cited Britain’s health service).

It was almost as if two election campaigns were being held in parallel, one about Britain’s relationship with the European Union, the other about questions of domestic social policy. Those whose main priority was getting Britain out of the European Union voted Tory; those who cared most about repairing the damage after years of austerity voted Labour. Labour’s 2015 base split two-thirds to one-third between Remain and Leave voters during the Brexit referendum. Its electoral coalition in 2017, which was much larger, had the same two-to-one divide between Remainers and Leavers.

It will be harder for Labour to pull off the same maneuver this time around. To some extent it was inevitable that Brexit would rise to the top of the agenda, as the deadline approached and the parliament elected in 2017 proved unable to agree on the terms of a deal. But there was also a concerted effort by several political actors — Labour’s right-wing, anti-Corbyn faction; the party’s electoral rivals, especially the Lib Dems; and the People’s Vote campaign — to undermine Corbyn’s strategy of pushing for a soft-Brexit, Norway-style deal: the option that was most likely to secure a broad consensus.

The European election supercharged that effort and forced Labour to change direction over the summer, in a bid to win back support lost to the hard-Remain groups. The party now says it will hold a second referendum on the terms of any Brexit deal with Remain as an option on the ballot paper. In effect, the new policy means that Labour has more to offer Remain voters and less to offer Leavers, who formed a crucial minority of its electoral base two years ago. It’s a high-stakes gamble, but that’s the course the party leadership has chosen. Labour’s best hope is that its Leave-supporting electorate cares more about the party’s domestic reform agenda than it does about leaving the European Union. A snap election will put that theory to the test.

Boris Johnson’s team have placed a wager of their own, as Philip Stephens describes in the Financial Times:

    During the 1960s, America’s right-wing Republicans embarked on what was called the “southern strategy” — a populist pitch to white working-class voters who were disenchanted with the civil rights liberalism of the Democratic Party. Mr Johnson has a “northern strategy”. By casting Brexit as a fight against foreigners and immigration he hopes to win an election by winning over anti-European white working-class voters in traditionally Labour areas. We are promised a campaign that might make even Mr Trump blush.

But the parallel being drawn here is misleading and (hopefully) delusional. Nixon’s southern strategy didn’t just appeal to white working-class voters: it appealed to white voters full stop. It was geared towards a region where a system of racial supremacy had been in place for generations, based on disenfranchisement of African Americans and violent repression of those who resisted. Any attempt by Johnson to flip the North and the Midlands — casually lumped together as “northern” England — will build on much weaker foundations.

Labour has a reform program that can appeal to working-class people of all races, however they voted in the Brexit referendum. It also has deep social roots in those areas, which the Tories mostly lack. Johnson’s “northern strategy” is sure to be every bit as foul as Stephens predicts, but it will still be very difficult for the Conservative leader to pull it off.

The electoral landscape will also be more crowded than it was in 2017, when the smaller parties were decisively squeezed. If there are strong performances from the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, plus the nationalists in Scotland and Wales, Britain’s unrepresentative electoral system will play out in all kinds of confusing and unpredictable ways.

However, one thing remains firmly within Labour’s power. As in 2017, it can run an insurgent campaign with a manifesto based on popular, social-democratic policies, using its membership for large-scale canvassing and to push Labour’s message online, all of which proved vital two years ago. Britain’s political commentators badly underestimated the force of a campaign like that before. Corbyn and his supporters will soon have a chance to teach them the lesson again.
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Report jollyswagman September 10, 2019 6:11 PM BST
we are fecked whatever happens.

some remain MPs wouldnt vote for any deal and some erg types who supposedly want to leave wouldnt vote for the only deal on the table. they are all charlatans and frauds.

if you think getting the vote overturned either by revocation or a another referendum will heal the wounds you are in a fantasy world.

who am i running with?
Report Whisperingdeath September 10, 2019 6:14 PM BST
If MPs are so against it they should never have voted for A50 and they should now admit they think they made a mistake and revoke it.


I believe that will be the eventual outcome and the country will remain divided. It is not going away! For now at least. We need to concentrate on houses, jobs, education and keeping the NHS afloat.
Report Whisperingdeath September 10, 2019 6:15 PM BST
we are fecked whatever happens.


It would appear so!
Report jollyswagman September 10, 2019 6:15 PM BST
if you tell 52% of the people their vote counted for nowt then the discourse will get much worse.
Report Whisperingdeath September 10, 2019 6:16 PM BST
What is even worse is that we are heading for the disintegration of The Union
Report Whisperingdeath September 10, 2019 6:17 PM BST
We should be concentrating on what unites us not what divides us.
Report unitedbiscuits September 10, 2019 6:19 PM BST
jollyswagmam is a '16 Leave voter feeling guilty for weakening the country and making your children poorer.
His vision of Brexit is not on the table.
He knows that the ref vote has made the country poorer.
He knows that Brexit will make the country poorer still.
He is beginning to realise that he has been manipulated to help the Far-Right (although it is much too early for him to acknowledge this on SM)

Tears before bedtime for jollyswagman's Brexit.
Report jollyswagman September 10, 2019 6:19 PM BST
genie is out the bottle, it aint going back in.

eea/efta takes us out of the eu so honours the result but keeps us close enough so the economy isnt hit.
Report Whisperingdeath September 10, 2019 6:22 PM BST
I wan't manipulated by the Far Right to vote for Brexit or the Brexit Party!

I wanted to give the politicians a kick in the nuts and I did. There are many politicians with uncertain futures right now. The Gravy Train is on shaky rails right now. Many a political career has been ruined and will be ruined soon!

Chukka Umuna being case in point!
Report jollyswagman September 10, 2019 6:23 PM BST
i do not feel guilty about my vote, as i said earlier hardcore remainers and leavers have fecked the country between them. i am a moderate, it is people like you who have put us where we are, with your all or nothing strategy hoping to overturn the result. you who was against a second referendum but changed when the result went against you, you and farage have something in common.
Report enpassant September 10, 2019 6:38 PM BST
On here it is IT and UB that have something in common
Report InsiderTrader September 10, 2019 6:39 PM BST
Nothing extreme about my views.
Report enpassant September 10, 2019 6:49 PM BST
'No deal, no problem'

Many would consider this to be on the extremes.....I do for one.
Report unitedbiscuits September 10, 2019 6:49 PM BST
My view is that all Leave voters are equally culpable for making my country poorer.
Leave voters  like jolyswagman who thought that their vote would lead to a "nice" Brexit, are the more deceived.
Report InsiderTrader September 10, 2019 6:56 PM BST
The country economically is in a better position now than it was in 2016.
Report unitedbiscuits September 10, 2019 7:09 PM BST
The country economically is in a better position now than it was in 2016. - InsiderTrader

Are you kidding?

Before the '16 ref £ was worth E1.30 and $1.43.

Now - because of the Leave vote - E1.12 and $1.23.5

What that means for someone living in the UK is that the value of all he owns - house, pension, salary, savings - has been decimated in the wider world.

For the average UK family, the cost of the depreciation of the currency since the '16 ref has cost c £50,000.

Nice work, Leavers.
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 7:38 PM BST
“ I would not dare console you if I could “

The Less Decieved - Larkin
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 7:44 PM BST
spelling becoming more erratic :(
Report unitedbiscuits September 10, 2019 8:34 PM BST
Leavers - bursting into fulfilment's desolate attic.
Report InsiderTrader September 10, 2019 9:07 PM BST
unitedbiscuits
10 Sep 19 19:09
Joined: 27 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 12,458 | Blogger: unitedbiscuits's blog
The country economically is in a better position now than it was in 2016. - InsiderTrader

Are you kidding?

Before the '16 ref £ was worth E1.30 and $1.43.

Now - because of the Leave vote - E1.12 and $1.23.5

What that means for someone living in the UK is that the value of all he owns - house, pension, salary, savings - has been decimated in the wider world.

For the average UK family, the cost of the depreciation of the currency since the '16 ref has cost c £50,000.

Nice work, Leavers.


^

Currencies go up and down.

So what?

Germany has a lower value by being bundled up in the Euro is weaker countries.. result massive exports... are they poorer?

Trump accuses China of using currency value to lower cost of exports.

Why are you so worried about the dollar and Euro sales being worth more to UK companies?
Report politicspunter September 10, 2019 9:11 PM BST
No one in the UK is poorer or richer through Brexit compared to anyone else in the UK.
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 9:46 PM BST
how can you vote for a party that changes its mind on brexit every week

"Jeremy Corbyn has promised a further referendum on Brexit with a "credible Leave option" versus Remain if his party wins the next general election.

He said Labour was "ready" for the campaign, but its "priority" was to stop a no-deal Brexit.

Its manifesto will promise to reach a better Brexit deal, but is not expected to commit to either Leave or Remain.

Some senior party figures - close Corbyn allies - say they will campaign to stay in the EU in any circumstances.

They include shadow chancellor John McDonnell and shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, who have both said remaining would be the best thing for the UK - even if the other option is a Labour-negotiated Brexit deal"


no wonder boris took the shutdown route, labour really are useless
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 9:49 PM BST
i really hope labour get crushed in any election, emily thornbury said on politics live that labour would mash the tories in a election, i wouldnt be so sure unless the voters really are that stupid
Report anxious September 10, 2019 9:49 PM BST
Why are you surprised there are probably still lots of tories who would prefer to remain , all you are doing is throwing a cheap shot at Jeremy , the parties are divided and the country is divided the man responsible for all this madness is dodgy dave
Report anxious September 10, 2019 9:50 PM BST
And lots of us pray the tories get smashed
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 9:52 PM BST
country voted to leave, parliament should abide by the result, they do in elections so why is this vote any diffrent, majority of parliament doesnt want to leave and is using delay tactics all the way
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 9:54 PM BST
corbyn is a bloody robot and told what to say by people behind him, rather have boris as pm any day of the week , corbyn will just run the country into the ground
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 9:56 PM BST
anxious youre not listening, 75% of parliament is remain focused, we'll be lucky if we have left by 2030
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 9:57 PM BST
this just shows what a bunch of children mps really are, the country voted to leave and we are still here
Report anxious September 10, 2019 9:59 PM BST
Listen to respect the vote  yes i agree , but lets be honest it has been a complete fook up look at chairman may give me a big majority to carry brexit through  in 2017  what did the electorate do , she lost her majority
Report impossible123 September 10, 2019 10:05 PM BST
One is only worse off if one buys the Euro or goes to live in Europe. However, if one trades with The EU one's export will probably increase as a result = one's profit too esp so if one's raw materials are all British.

I think if one buys other currencies since 2016 Referendum I do not think there's a significant difference in buying power either. As for one's assets eg house, pension, salary, savings (as mentioned) it's only a paper loss, and not Brexit specific as other unrelated external factors could come into play.

For instance, house (value affected by location/policies); salary (supply/demand on one's profession); pension (risk adversity/sector/location); savings (pants interest rate/redeployed outside EU/internationally eg Asia) which could so easily marginalised the perceived paper loss - swings and roundabouts.

"Chicken" Corbyn is "power to all the people including the lazy/stupid sods"; nationalisations; generous pensions (unearned); increase in non-capital expenditures eg social; will not win a General Election nor becoming PM.

The country is divided not because a majority of the electorate voted to 'Leave' The EU but mainly because the MPs are not carrying out the result of the 2016 Referendum, instead playing Party politics and dithering - it's their solely their fault!
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 10:05 PM BST
there is too many remain mps in parliament and yes boris shouldve voted mays deal in but now we will stuck here for at least another 6 months with the EU only to eager to give us another extention
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:05 PM BST
anxious is the sort of leave voter who is going to fk up everything :(
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 10:07 PM BST
i agree impossible mps dither and dither and one day i fear the remain side will get their own way and we will remain
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 10:17 PM BST
""The EU has its faults, but it sticks up for workers"

Rubbish. What about all these zero hour contracts, we're still in the EU"


eu is great isnt it, employers still get away with screwing over their workers, so fantastic to be in this great place called the eu
Report anxious September 10, 2019 10:19 PM BST
lfc if you think i would ever vote for the likes of bulingdon and farage  no thank you i would rather have dysentery
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 10:20 PM BST
cant get a dentist/doctor appointment for 2 months because of the sheer amount of london overflow and eu migrants, we need to stop freedom of movement and only allow skilled workers in then we need to crush the benefits system with the only people to benefit are really needing the help not the mum that has kids just as a excuse not to work
Report anxious September 10, 2019 10:22 PM BST
on a more general point lfc you have been very rude and aggressive lately, i dont know what has got into you but you need to have a lie down for about a month
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 10:23 PM BST
where i work people apply for a job do 1 shift then quit, they are told by the job centre they have to work or lose benefits, we have to make people come off benefits and work, we really dont need people comin from europe to do min wage work
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:23 PM BST
You can vote for him once we are out for fk sake !!  I’ll even vote labour next time if you promise not to vote labour or libdem this time

I can’t be any fairer than that ?
Report anxious September 10, 2019 10:24 PM BST
Do you really think freedom of movement will end skywalker , it was on the spiv watch that immigration increased , what happened top the cutson border controls all done by the tories and thersa may as home Secretary
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:25 PM BST
anxious I have never been rude to you ,I coukdnt do that
Report anxious September 10, 2019 10:26 PM BST
Thank you lfc i and i have not been rude to you either
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:26 PM BST
certain people deserve rudeness , you’re not one of them anxious
Report anxious September 10, 2019 10:27 PM BST
i am not a saint lfc i can be a fookin nuisance , but i try to control myself LaughLaugh
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:32 PM BST
houses , gardens, music , football, art, golf.....and people
these are subjects I understand Happy
Report themover September 10, 2019 10:35 PM BST
Great lfc, can you let me know how the people of the estimated 148 Labour onstinuencies that voted Leave are going to vote in the next election before I have a bet! tia Grin
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:35 PM BST
anyway, I mean if you promise don't vote lab/libdem this time

i would promise to vote labour next time....

ok, i know you still cant do it Sad
Report themover September 10, 2019 10:35 PM BST
*constituencies
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:37 PM BST
I would hope every leave voter would do their duty and vote Brexit party, in my opinion to vote labour would be a great betrayal of the referendum
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:38 PM BST
Brexit or torie, it is vital not to vote labour or libdemthis time
Report anxious September 10, 2019 10:39 PM BST
lfc that will not happen ,  i think 2 thirds of labour leave will stick with Jeremy
Report n88uk September 10, 2019 10:40 PM BST
A vote for this Tory party is a vote for a criminal enterprise.
Report themover September 10, 2019 10:40 PM BST
and the estimated 247 Leave Conservative constituencies will vote Conservative again. So BJ only really has to worry about his 80 Remain constituencies.
Report n88uk September 10, 2019 10:41 PM BST
That's not guaranteed Mover as it that includes places that were like 51% leave. They already lost one of them in a by-election (Brecon and Radnorshire).
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:42 PM BST
well you might be right anxious, but I underestimated the labour voters in the first referendum, I though they would follow like sheep and vote to stay in

but they didn't thank god
Report anxious September 10, 2019 10:44 PM BST
Lfc  labour voters in a election will not vote for farage or bullingdon , a 2nd referendum is different
Report lfc1971 September 10, 2019 10:45 PM BST
Sad
Report themover September 10, 2019 10:46 PM BST
I agree anx but they might vote Brexit if they are hard line brexiteers, and the 84 remain Labour constituencies might vote Lib Dem as they are obvious remain party as it stands.
Report themover September 10, 2019 10:48 PM BST
It just seems to me the Labour vote is more at risk than the Tory one, as it stands
Report n88uk September 10, 2019 10:48 PM BST
The election won't simply be fought on a remain/leave Brexit axis, so many other factors. Most those Labour remain constituencies no chance of going Lib Dem, a handful might.
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 10:56 PM BST
a vote for the brexit party is a vote for corbyn power, the more votes that are taken away from the tories only increases corbyns chances of victory, me i could never vote brexit or labour so the tories would have my vote, basically if you vote brexit party then the chances of brexit itself will get smaller
Report n88uk September 10, 2019 10:58 PM BST
There will be a shift to Brexit Party once Boris fails to deliver Brexit.
Report lord skywalker September 10, 2019 11:01 PM BST
why would you vote brexit party if you want brexit to happen, doesnt make sense, farage will never get into power so whats the point as his only campaign promise will be to deliver brexit which he cant do without one of the main parties
Report n88uk September 10, 2019 11:03 PM BST
Not inconceivable the Conservative vote completely collapses and goes to The Brexit Party.
Report thegiggilo September 10, 2019 11:47 PM BST
n88uk 10 Sep 19 22:41 
That's not guaranteed Mover as it that includes places that were like 51% leave. They already lost one of them in a by-election (Brecon and Radnorshire)

Be amazed if this seat wasn't taken back,2/5 the tories not unless there was a lot of extra labour vote that will come out and vote liberal and even then looking at previous election still looks tiry get back..Also today the greens on some crazy mission to split the vote in Stroud standing their MEP in a labour/tiry marginal alreadt complete chaos..
Report thegiggilo September 11, 2019 12:16 AM BST
https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw
Report thegiggilo September 11, 2019 12:30 AM BST
https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776
Report impossible123 September 11, 2019 8:09 AM BST
The Brexit Party has only one mandate ie to exit The EU; they are voting reps into the European Parliament ie for European MPs, but not for governing The UK - they know sod-all how to do this  - just look at their composition; it's a similar look to the Labour Front Bench ie a motley crew.

The General Election is voting for the Party that will facilitate Brexit and able to govern The UK ie The Conservative Party even if it pains me to say that being a genuine but disgruntled Labour supporter - "Chicken" Corbyn must never be Prime Minister; Labour and LibDem do not want a Brexit - 'deal' or 'no deal' - they are staunch 'Remainers'.

I shall be voting for the Party that assures/guarantees me Brexit ie the Tories (on this occasion), and to get the country out of this quagmire and embarrassing position. I believe the EU will be a basket case in years to come. Also, The UK cannot afford to fund them each year at an average monumental cost of £8bn (net) for purposes that I've deemed not conducive to the British people and country; they need to be able to fund themselves, and not relying on handouts from The UK (a major funder).
Report InsiderTrader September 11, 2019 9:11 AM BST
I would not trust Labour on green issues.

When it comes to the crunch Labour would put unionised industrial jobs over the environment.
Report enpassant September 11, 2019 9:39 AM BST

Sep 10, 2019 -- 3:46PM, lord skywalker wrote:


how can you vote for a party that changes its mind on brexit every week"Jeremy Corbyn has promised a further referendum on Brexit with a "credible Leave option" versus Remain if his party wins the next general election.He said Labour was "ready" for the campaign, but its "priority" was to stop a no-deal Brexit.Its manifesto will promise to reach a better Brexit deal, but is not expected to commit to either Leave or Remain.Some senior party figures - close Corbyn allies - say they will campaign to stay in the EU in any circumstances.They include shadow chancellor John McDonnell and shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, who have both said remaining would be the best thing for the UK - even if the other option is a Labour-negotiated Brexit deal"no wonder boris took the shutdown route, labour really are useless


Come on now let's be a little grown up here. Brexit crosses all normal boundaries so let's allow for it in any political party too eh. Why shouldn't any MP vote and campaign as they see fit and not be whipped into compliance for the media to play with.
It seems, on the face of it, you would prefer a party hide the views of their MP's in which case you get what you deserve- a lying PM with a lying government.....well done.

Report enpassant September 11, 2019 9:42 AM BST

Sep 10, 2019 -- 3:52PM, lord skywalker wrote:


country voted to leave, parliament should abide by the result, they do in elections so why is this vote any diffrent, majority of parliament doesnt want to leave and is using delay tactics all the way


Some of this is true of course but the real blame of the entire mess is with the tory party- they started it, the decided the way it would be handled- the fkd it up and still are...but you focus on Labour ! Read the torygraph or the Sun ?

Report enpassant September 11, 2019 9:43 AM BST

Sep 10, 2019 -- 3:54PM, lord skywalker wrote:


corbyn is a bloody robot and told what to say by people behind him, rather have boris as pm any day of the week , corbyn will just run the country into the ground


Oh lord the irony.

Report enpassant September 11, 2019 9:46 AM BST

Sep 10, 2019 -- 4:20PM, lord skywalker wrote:


cant get a dentist/doctor appointment for 2 months because of the sheer amount of london overflow and eu migrants, we need to stop freedom of movement and only allow skilled workers in then we need to crush the benefits system with the only people to benefit are really needing the help not the mum that has kids just as a excuse not to work


Waloub this is you deluded puppet.

Report enpassant September 11, 2019 9:52 AM BST

Sep 11, 2019 -- 3:11AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


I would not trust Labour on green issues.When it comes to the crunch Labour would put unionised industrial jobs over the environment.


Assertion anyone ?

Report thegiggilo September 11, 2019 10:06 AM BST
Victoria derbyshore show on now lol talking about watson and labour policy on referendum,i will go 1.01 they will have found watson supporters backing a referendum before election just to oppose corbyn,or they won't even be real labour voters.On now here we go
Report enpassant September 11, 2019 10:09 AM BST
Watson's day's in the Labour party are very much numbered.
Report Angoose September 11, 2019 10:21 AM BST
Doesn't look good when he is giving a message that is contradictory to the one delivered by Corbyn yesterday at the TUC congress.
He is entitled to his views, but the opposition require to remain solid, albeit with differences in individual positions amongst their parties.
Report differentdrum September 11, 2019 12:08 PM BST
Great idea kick out the guy who is talking absolute sense and keep the clueless idiot who is leading Labour towards oblivion. You may as well kick out well over half of the PLP.

Labour have tried to hide their differences with the leadership but they were obviously going to reappear closer to the Election.

That young Labour voter on Victoria Derbyshire supporting the leadership just ended up being tied in knots. Many of those blindly following weasel seem to live a world devoid of reality.

If there was a second referendum prior to an Election it would be hugely to Labour's benefit if it really believes it's policies outside Brexit are so much better than the Tories. If Brexit is undecided they will get buried. Rubbish on Brexit rubbish in an Election. It really is that simple. Watson is only guilty of realising that.
Report anxious September 11, 2019 12:18 PM BST
Watson should keep his mouth shut firmly shut
Report Angoose September 11, 2019 1:31 PM BST
“Good leadership requires you to surround yourself with people of diverse perspectives who can disagree with you without fear of retaliation..”
Doris Kearns Goodwin, American biographer, historian, and political commentator
Report lord skywalker September 11, 2019 2:55 PM BST
enpassant youre another remainer who hasnt got a clue about democracy, theyre dragging this out for so long  remain mps can now claim that the british people have changed their mind and dont care anymore, if remain had won the 2016 vote life wouldve gone on as usual and no one wouldve questioned it, the gina millers and tony blairs of this world think its their god given right to frustrate/stop brexit with court battles, so much self intrest and nothin that benefits the country
Report lord skywalker September 11, 2019 2:58 PM BST
its so simple leave with no deal or a deal, either way were out, i wish remainers would just shut up and let it be, life wont be bad after brexit i can promise
Report Angoose September 11, 2019 3:11 PM BST
I can promise LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report flushgordon1 September 11, 2019 4:13 PM BST
Ira hamas, Hezbollah supporter or Boris , yes it's a difficult choice.
Report sofiakenny September 11, 2019 4:21 PM BST
no it isnt its an easy choice...self serving entitled misogynist lying eton piece of filth comes a poor second.
Report sofiakenny September 11, 2019 4:23 PM BST
and as for rees -smug how much did he steal by going short on the pound which he intentionally staged?
Report lfc1971 September 11, 2019 4:31 PM BST
Deserves every penny

anyone could have done the same
Report enpassant September 11, 2019 8:39 PM BST
differentdrum • September 11, 2019 12:08 PM BST
Great idea kick out the guy who is talking absolute sense and keep the clueless idiot who is leading Labour towards oblivion. You may as well kick out well over half of the PLP.



That is precisely what will take place.
Report enpassant September 11, 2019 8:41 PM BST

Sep 11, 2019 -- 8:55AM, lord skywalker wrote:


enpassant youre another remainer who hasnt got a clue about democracy, theyre dragging this out for so long

Report enpassant September 11, 2019 8:45 PM BST
^I have stated very clearly my brexit position you dipstick. Try reading posts with a little more attention payed to the words used....difficult I'm sure when catchy soundbites work better for you but do try eh fella.
Report flushgordon1 April 2, 2020 11:55 AM BST
It's funny reading back past posts on how it reflects what people wish would happen, rather than reality.
Report moisok April 2, 2020 1:26 PM BST
ewe cruel swine
Report Foinavon April 2, 2020 1:32 PM BST
Grin

Has Corbyn and his supporters taught Labour a lesson?
Report flushgordon1 April 2, 2020 2:50 PM BST
Doubtful if you read through this.
Report moisok April 2, 2020 2:59 PM BST
but come on flush

we did have a chance

I am not sure what sort of chance

but we did have oneCrazy

you ought to see the begging letters I get from the party in my e mails

several a week  etc
Report moondan April 2, 2020 3:13 PM BST
Both parties lack serious Mps who understand extremism will be their downfall.
Sadly, both sides cannot turn to an obvious leader and I cannot see that changing for years to come.
Report impossible123 April 3, 2020 3:37 PM BST
I sincerely hope not. They do not deserve it given the abundance of lightweight self-serving MPs solely on political correctness than ability or the will for public office. Maybe post 2029.
Report politicspunter April 4, 2020 10:05 AM BST
Anyone betting on the Keir Starmer 1st round percentage market on here?
Report impossible123 April 4, 2020 12:50 PM BST
Must rid of Covid-19 of the Labour Party ie Momentum. I for one will never be part of the Party until the "political" Covid-19 is history.  First and foremost his shadow cabinet will be enlightening.
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