Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
jumper3
16 Jun 19 10:38
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Nov 17
| Topic/replies: 14,569 | Blogger: jumper3's blog
Who'd have thought. Getting name recognition as well. 'Boris' 'Rory'.

I think he will survive on Tuesday. Going to be a tight call though. He's certainly vocal whether it is social media or mainstream. If anything, we'll be hearing more of this fellow. Might be wise for Boris to offer him a government role.
Pause Switch to Standard View Rory now 2nd fav on here
Show More
Loading...
Report edy June 19, 2019 6:49 PM BST

Jun 19, 2019 -- 12:37PM, Foinavon wrote:


To quote the Bard"Out, vile jelly! Where is thy lustre now?"And the same for turncoat Treesa in a few weeks time.


Who are the top5 turncoats in current British politics?

Report alun2005 June 19, 2019 6:50 PM BST
If you listened to the Liberal Media this last week, Rory Stewart was a cross between the Second Coming, Mother Theresa and Nelson Mandela.  Largely of course because many of his half-baked pronouncements sounded like those of a secret Labour Remainer. 

The media perceived some ludicrous 'surge' in his support, and even nicely brought up female newscasters were talking about him having the momentum to win.

Fingers crossed none of you invested good money at fancy prices.
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 6:52 PM BST
If you mean to win outright? No.
If you mean to get knocked out today? Yes.
Report InsiderTrader June 19, 2019 6:53 PM BST
The pros on here will have traded out before the vote announcement today.
Report aaronh June 19, 2019 6:58 PM BST
Boris supporters voting strategically, very cool and normal scenes
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 7:00 PM BST
If you mean me, you are correct.  I had £1515 on Hunt most votes (without Johnson) at an average of 1.46, traded out at an average of 1.26.  I had £116 Stewart least votes at 3.5, layed at average 2.7. I lost £40 on Gove to get most votes at an average of 4.75. I lost £30 on Javid to get least votes at an average of 1.86. A pound here or there on some long shots and that was about it.
Report Dr Crippen June 19, 2019 7:03 PM BST
^^Lol.
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 7:05 PM BST
Don't worry Crippen, you don't bet (even though this is a betting site) so you won't understand the details above.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 7:07 PM BST
I know what you mean politics punter. I got accused of ramping for posting what I did at the time I did it.
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 7:11 PM BST
I will tell you the beauty of politics betting.

1/Some folks are so biased that on the exchanges they put up silly prices.

2/ Nearly always there are are only two possible results.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 7:12 PM BST
A tough question edy, there are so many candidates who said we should respect the referendum result in 2016 and now propose the exact opposite. I give you Vince Cable and Mrs Yvette Balls for starters.
Report edy June 19, 2019 7:15 PM BST
Can you believe that the leftist rag that is the Süddeutsche Zeitung, in days gone by sometimes jokingly called the only opposition in Bavaria, called Boris the biggest turncoat of British politics a few months ago?
Report edy June 19, 2019 7:17 PM BST
I was left shaking in disgust.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 7:21 PM BST
You can't trust any of them, politics is the art of lying.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 7:24 PM BST
You are right PP, the problem though is that markets are often illiquid with massive spreads or can rapidly become so and many markets aren't resolved for several years. I only bet on politics for small change.
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 7:32 PM BST
Foinavon,

I do bet on long term markets eg the next USA presidential election or the next UK general election (could be sooner than I envisaged). I try not to put too much on but will do if I think it's real value (I have a lot of money on the LibDems getting 15+ seats).
By elections and leadership elections are normally great money spinners but the real biggies are general elections, USA midterm elections etc as there is betting on individual constituencies/ house and senate seats.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 7:41 PM BST
Yes, I have some money on Trump to be reelected but I don't have the detailed knowledge for individual consistency markets.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 7:42 PM BST
* constituency
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 7:49 PM BST
Foinavon,

Here is a link that is worth a look. It's a constituency breakdown of the 2017 General election.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/#uk-elections-constituency-search-anchor

Just click on the individual seats.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 7:55 PM BST
Thanks, I check it out and bookmark it for future reference.
I am though a trader rather than a final result punter and I like the highly liquid and volatile test cricket and football markets best.
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 8:04 PM BST
I know zilch about cricket. I occasionally bet on football but it's for very small stakes, Saturday yankee etc. I do have much larger football bets if it's a comp like the Euros or World cup.
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 8:19 PM BST
Anyway, the tory leadership knockout phase enters it's final day tomorrow. Two markets of interest in the fourth ballot...

1/ Who will get the least votes?

2/ Who will get the most votes (without Johnson) ?

You have to assume that the dark arts of the Johnson campaign will be present again, effectively rigging the result but as no one outside their coven is privy to info, it's anyones guess.

Where will the Stewart votes go to? Not Johnson obviously but the other three could all get a cut of them, Saj needs a really big slice of the Rory cake.  It's not impossible, far from it, for him to avoid finishing last but it looks tough.

The most votes (without Johnson) market surely is between Hunt and Gove. I wouldn't be taking a price less than 1.5 on either.
Report donny osmond June 19, 2019 8:34 PM BST
boris surely wants a run off without gove

the other two make boris look smart
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 8:36 PM BST
Sadly, the Johnson team will likely decide his final opponent.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 8:37 PM BST
On the face of it, Hunt looks best placed but Gove may be the chosen one of the remain camp and is as devious as they come. I wouldn't trust him with a widow's mite and shall not be playing.

Regarding football, individual games are hard to predict regardless of how much knowledge you have and combinations of results the more so. The markets, however, behave in a predictable way, all being dependent on the expiry of time value while in-running and at the same time punctuated by stepwise change when goals are scored. There are ways of trying to take advantage of any or all of these parameters.
Report politicspunter June 19, 2019 8:40 PM BST

Jun 19, 2019 -- 2:37PM, Foinavon wrote:


On the face of it, Hunt looks best placed but Gove may be the chosen one of the remain camp and is as devious as they come. I wouldn't trust him with a widow's mite and shall not be playing.Regarding football, individual games are hard to predict regardless of how much knowledge you have and combinations of results the more so. The markets, however, behave in a predictable way, all being dependent on the expiry of time value while in-running and at the same time punctuated by stepwise change when goals are scored. There are ways of trying to take advantage of any or all of these parameters.


Yes, but I am 58 now and trying to avoid ulcers, heart attacks and nervous breakdowns.

Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 8:55 PM BST
Laugh I'm older than Corbyn, it keeps me young and my mind active.
Report aaronh June 19, 2019 9:59 PM BST
Gove may be the chosen one of the remain camp

you're not the only one I've heard this from but what about Gove is it that is supposed to attract remainers? He was one of the main leave campaigners.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 10:38 PM BST
Tory remain politicians.
He knifed Boris in the leadership contest won by May.
He stayed in her cabinet and argued for her surrender document when other leave oriented colleagues resigned.
He consistently voted for the WA when presented in Parliament.
Most of the tory remain oriented politicians want Brexit in name only in order to retain the figleaf of democracy and then to try and rejoin fully at a later date. Gove fits this bill perfectly.
He is unlikely to appeal to Labour Remainers in the way the lamentable Roderick does.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 10:51 PM BST
One thing we've learned from May is that on this issue you can't take anything that politicians say at face value. Just because Gove says he wants to leave the EU doesn't mean he's not a closet Remainer, in fact actions speak louder than words and I rather believe that he is.
Report akabula June 19, 2019 10:54 PM BST
Hi Edy you still running from Brian Cox? Laugh
Whos the Billy Liar he keeps referring to, any idea?
Report n88uk June 19, 2019 10:54 PM BST
Dominic Grieve "This business of leaving on the 31st is fantasy, it's not going to happen"
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 10:59 PM BST
Grieve is an authoritarian fascist masquerading as a democrat. He has every intention of trying to overturn the result of the plebiscite.
Report akabula June 19, 2019 11:20 PM BST
Grieve has never believed in Democracy.
Report n88uk June 19, 2019 11:32 PM BST
But the ones who want to prorogue parliament or shove no deal through against parliaments will do?
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 11:33 PM BST
He wants a powerful central government run from Brussels.
We've just elected a majority of Leave MEPs to that Parliament but no one will seriously listen to them, they will just be ignored. That's what passes for democracy in the EU.
Report n88uk June 19, 2019 11:39 PM BST
Majority of leave MEPs?

Leave:
Brexit Party 29
Conservatives 4
DUP 1

= 34

Remain:
Lib Dems 16
Labour 10
Green 7
SNP 3
Plaid Cymru 1
Sinn Fein 1
Alliance 1

= 39

Want another try?
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 11:43 PM BST
Aren't labour still officially leave? They were at the last election and I think Jezza is still sitting on the fence regarding any change.
Report n88uk June 19, 2019 11:45 PM BST
The Labour MEPs are remain.
Report Foinavon June 19, 2019 11:52 PM BST
So Labour's stance is to respect the referendum result and remain? OK, that makes sense, maybe erm.
Report donny osmond June 19, 2019 11:56 PM BST
nothing could be clearer foinavon

same as brexit meps voted onto euro parliament but wanting to negotiate
against themselves....


crazy world of politics
Report n88uk June 19, 2019 11:57 PM BST
You were talking about the MEPs in Brussels, the Labour MEPs in Brussels want to remain in the EU and are desperate for the Labour party to come fully out for that cause.
Report Foinavon June 20, 2019 12:03 AM BST
No wonder Labour is in a mess. About as much leadership as the tories.
Report akabula June 20, 2019 1:21 AM BST
Labour stood in the EU elections, as they did in the last Westminster election, as leave.
Some have now changed their stance but voters saw them as leave.
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:38 AM BST

Jun 19, 2019 -- 4:54PM, akabula wrote:


Hi Edy you still running from Brian Cox? Whos the Billy Liar he keeps referring to, any idea?


Oh hey there, akabula. I constantly make fun of him. Why would that be running? Mouse Muldoon and I are like the most fearless of warriors when it comes to confronting him. Not some arselickers, like certain individuals on here, that sell their souls to someone like him because they, for the love of The Flying Spaghetti Monster, don't want to get on the wrong side of him.

Found it very, very funny when he specifically asked arselicker in chief on YouTube recently if terry mccann is a complete nutter for the things he believes in. Terry, who believes many of the very same insane conspiracies as arselicker in chief. They're like brothers in the way their brainwaves are constructed. Curiously, AIC never found the strength to answer.

Billy Liar is pp to them. Happy

Report edy June 20, 2019 6:42 AM BST
but you knew that already
Report Dr Crippen June 20, 2019 1:15 PM BST
edy showing his nasty side there.

I'm afraid Brian Cox has really got to old edy.
Report edy June 20, 2019 1:18 PM BST
There ain't no nasty bone in me entire body.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 1:21 PM BST

Jun 20, 2019 -- 7:15AM, Dr Crippen wrote:


edy showing his nasty side there.I'm afraid Brian Cox has really got to old edy.


Crippen is only here to spout daily personal abuse to other members. Don't respond to him.

Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 1:33 PM BST
Well, to the fifth and last ballot (fourth ballot result Boris 157, Gove 61, Hunt 59, Javid 34). The betting on the fourth one was a bit mad I felt...

1/ Fewest number of votes- never really in any doubt, Javid price drifted between 1.1 and 1.2 all day, some folks wanted to back Gove at as low as 5.0 which I couldn't really understand.

2/ Most votes without Johnson- Bookies opened 1.5 Hunt and 3.0 Gove. I felt it was a toss up so backed Gove. Hunt then was supported in to 1.25 for no clear reason I could find and Gove went out to 4.0.

Now then, who is going to go through in the final ballot?  Is it toss up stuff again?
Report Dr Crippen June 20, 2019 1:33 PM BST
Billy Liar is pp to them

Did you notice that politics pauper, that's you.
Report edy June 20, 2019 1:36 PM BST
What exactly are you trying to tell him with that, Crippen?
Report Dr Crippen June 20, 2019 1:39 PM BST
It's your post I quoted edy, you explain it to him.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 1:43 PM BST
29 APR
SINGLE
OPEN
This bet has been boosted!
Jeremy Hunt
(Next Conservative Party Leader)
20.00
Next Permanent Tory Leader
Stake
£30.00
Returns
£600.00
Report edy June 20, 2019 1:46 PM BST
Oh of course.

a fellow forumite that goes by the name "akabula" posted the question "Whos the Billy Liar he keeps referring to, any idea?" to me. "He" in this case refers to the YouTube user "Brian Cox" that he had mentioned earlier in his post.

I answered to him, akabula, "Billy Liar is pp to them." because that is what my expert analysis of the posts from Coxy and AIC/Jack Dawkins, have led to me believe. I can't proof it, but suspect that akabula already knew this well.

An expert of contextual reading like yourself should know that the word "to them" in my answer signals that it is not my personal opinion that pp should be referred to as Billy Liar. Happy
Report n88uk June 20, 2019 2:51 PM BST

Jun 19, 2019 -- 7:21PM, akabula wrote:


Labour stood in the EU elections, as they did in the last Westminster election, as leave.Some have now changed their stance but voters saw them as leave.


The 76% remain Labour vote saw them as leave, you sure?

Report n88uk June 20, 2019 2:52 PM BST
Also you are saying voters pay zero attention to who their MEPs then, given Labour MEPs were absolutely pleading with the Labour party to back remain and going around campaigning for remain.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 2:54 PM BST
The betting in the final ballot has it fairly close. It's roughly to win...

Hunt 1.7

Gove 2.37
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 2:57 PM BST
It's probably in the hands of the Johnson camp. Who would they like Boris to face in the last two?
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 3:39 PM BST
Theresa May Laugh
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 5:17 PM BST
Looks like Gove might have edged this.
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 5:22 PM BST
In that case, prepare for the psychodrama:

Psychodrama is an action method, often used as a psychotherapy, in which clients use spontaneous dramatization, role playing, and dramatic self-presentation to investigate and gain insight into their lives.
Report sofiakenny June 20, 2019 5:32 PM BST
Looks like Hunt romps it for me.
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 5:43 PM BST
Got any buddies on the 1922 committee Grin
Report InsiderTrader June 20, 2019 5:45 PM BST
They should just lend Hunt 40 votes to get rid of Gove.
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 5:47 PM BST
Gove 80 votes I reckon.
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 5:59 PM BST
Not long to wait to find out …..
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:00 PM BST
So exciting
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 6:06 PM BST
Hunt has got it
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 6:07 PM BST
Gove 75   Hunt 77  BJ 160
Report InsiderTrader June 20, 2019 6:07 PM BST
Great news. Gove gone.
Report jollyswagman June 20, 2019 6:07 PM BST
They should just lend Hunt 40 votes to get rid of Gove.

100% banana republic territory, if a third world country did this type of thing we would rightly mock them.
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:21 PM BST
Why the Gove dislike when he wouldn't have had any chance in the members' vote anyway?
Report alun2005 June 20, 2019 6:25 PM BST
The main thing is that we were today spared the nightmare scenario of a Sajid Javid administration.

For a few years maybe.
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 6:26 PM BST
Yes, Central Casting wins again Grin
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:27 PM BST
Is David that much less qualified than the other contenders?
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:27 PM BST
The question applies to Javid too.
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:27 PM BST
Oh, worked for Deutsche Bank. Yeah, nightmare.
Report aaronh June 20, 2019 6:28 PM BST
what makes Javid any more disqualifying than any other lying tory?
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:28 PM BST
He sounds like just the man for the Singapore-on-Thames ...dream
Report jollyswagman June 20, 2019 6:28 PM BST
none of our 650 MPs are fit to be MPs let alone be PM, imo.

i'd rather lfc1971 was in charge Shocked
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:30 PM BST
Oh c'mon, you can't be that desperate.
Report aaronh June 20, 2019 6:31 PM BST
Gove campaign source accuses Team Boris of fixing: “Boris and Michael were getting half of Sajid’s votes each, few were going to Hunt. So what happened? You join up the dots. If you’ve got a big lead, you can do what you want with that. No, it’s not cricket, but it is politics”.

Happy
Report edy June 20, 2019 6:31 PM BST
Happy
Report jollyswagman June 20, 2019 6:32 PM BST
Cry
Report Angoose June 20, 2019 6:37 PM BST
And they have the brassneck to tell the public that you need to respect democracy Cry
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 6:38 PM BST

Jun 20, 2019 -- 12:31PM, aaronh wrote:


Gove campaign source accuses Team Boris of fixing: “Boris and Michael were getting half of Sajid’s votes each, few were going to Hunt. So what happened? You join up the dots. If you’ve got a big lead, you can do what you want with that. No, it’s not cricket, but it is politics”.


Gove got 61 votes in ballot four, Javid got 34 and was eliminated. If Gove had got half of Javids votes ie 17, he would have got 78 votes in the final ballot. The simple conclusion is that he didn't get those Javid votes.

Report thegiggilo June 20, 2019 7:13 PM BST
Never saw that comingCrazywe are in trumpland what a surprise..
Report terry mccann June 20, 2019 7:18 PM BST
Like the said last week its down to the elites choice hunt n boris, why so sure Terry? These two are very good at saying all the right things to all the wrong people.
So its a case of the UK doing the bidding of the Yanks but is it actually the other way round?
Report thegiggilo June 20, 2019 7:22 PM BST
Lol two spolit ballot papers,what a party these tories must be truely desperate they really do dislike johnson but won't vote for someone sensible grabbing at anything just to save their self serving party,a real bunch of dishonurable rogues and misfits..
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 7:26 PM BST
It was only one spoilt ballot paper. It was two in the fourth ballot.
Report aaronh June 20, 2019 7:35 PM BST
classic Rory doing it twice.
Report aaronh June 20, 2019 7:36 PM BST
@VictoriaLIVE
Following Following @VictoriaLIVE
More
“One quick way of me assessing people is whether I would trust them with a platoon of 36 soldiers if they had to do an attack”

Tory MP and ex-Army officer Bob Stewart on why he’s backing Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

amazing
Report politicspunter June 20, 2019 7:58 PM BST
Ah, he should have supported Rory Stewart, who had a commission with the Black Watch regiment.
Report Whisperingdeath June 21, 2019 12:32 PM BST
i'd rather lfc1971 was in charge
Report aaronh June 21, 2019 12:34 PM BST
of the 36 soldiers or the country?
Report Whisperingdeath June 21, 2019 12:54 PM BST
I could imagine lfc with a commission in Walmington on Sea!
Report Foinavon June 21, 2019 1:28 PM BST
I wouldn't trust Rory with a soft boiled egg and half a dozen toasted soldiers.
Report sageform June 21, 2019 8:41 PM BST
and apparently there were quite a lot of proxy votes cast. This was only a way of choosing the 2 candidates to be voted for by tory members so how the election was organised was an internal matter.
Report aaronh June 22, 2019 3:25 PM BST
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1rmxPeOaWqZKN

Sky News streaming a hustings from Birmingham
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com