Jun 6, 2019 -- 3:02AM, tobermory wrote:
If she doesn't vacate the leadership then she remains leader til the election is done.That it will go all the way though is not so sure. With Boris looking strong it will be difficult to keep him out of the final two. If he gets that far he surely will win easily in a members vote.What will the other candidate want ? If they want to be Foreign Sec or Chancellor then they can't spend a month rubbishing Boris's plans. Only if it is someone that would not serve under Boris would they want to do that before going to the backbenches. I think there will be a lot of spin from the Boris camp that "We have 18 weeks 'to do Brexit' so let's not waste the first 5 of those on a futile campaign when Boris is a cert".So June may still win.
June ramping has just hit a whole new level of absurdity.
Jun 6, 2019 -- 2:12PM, Gin wrote:
Quite a lot of chatter over at PoliticalBetting.com over the resignation date of Theresa May. Barring something dramatic happening Theresa May will formally resign as Leader of the Conservative Party tomorrow, as the above official statement from the party chairman and the 1922 Committee makes clear. Seems straightforward.Over on the Betfair exchange some £3,057,129 has been staked on the exact date of her exit on the “UK – Party Leaders– Exit Dates – Theresa May” market. The small print in the bet market’s rules states:Punters seeking clarification have now been told that this means when she leaves Downing Street – which is something completely different altogether. May will remain the Prime Minister in Downing Street for another month or so after she has resigned even though she is no longer the party leader. Punters who understood the Conservative Party’s rules are not happy. It’s clear the bookies are confusing the party leadership and the premiership…
Yes, but she will stay on as "acting leader". Which in the eyes of BF means that she hasn't stopped being leader.
Jun 6, 2019 -- 2:22PM, Floccinaucinihilipilification wrote:
From The Guardian: "No 10 says May will only resign when she is confident her successor can command confidence of Commons"Rowena Mason Rowena MasonBoris Johnson could avoid facing an immediate confidence vote in his premiership if he becomes Conservative leader, as ministers are considering whether to send MPs home early for their summer break before the new prime minister is announced.Mel Stride, the new leader of the House of Commons, aroused suspicions that the Conservatives are plotting to put off a confidence vote for their new leader until September, as he refused to confirm when recess will start. (See 11.36am.)He said it was “not necessarily” the case that the new Conservative leader would have to appear in front of parliament before MPs go off on holiday until the autumn.Ministers appear to be trying to get round the threat of a new Conservative leader failing to be able to form a government, if Johnson or one of the other frontrunners to succeed Theresa May loses the support of some Tory MPs or cannot win over the Democratic Unionist party.Labour sources said they believe the government whips are planning recess to start potentially as early as July 19 – almost a week earlier than last year – while the Conservatives will not say exactly when the winner of their leadership contest will be announced, other than it will be in the week of July 22.The move to delay a confidence vote until September would give a new leader the chance to ensure its confidence and supply deal with the DUP still stands.However, it could mean that Theresa May would not be able to go to Buckingham Palace straight away and resign as prime minister. Her spokesman said May would only hand over the keys to No 10 when “she says to the Queen that she is stepping aside and believes that someone else can command the confidence of the House”.
Market is about Tory leadership
Jun 6, 2019 -- 4:05PM, Chemosabe wrote:
People may be reluctant to take "advice" from someone who clearly doesn't understand that the position of Party Leader is not the same as Prime Minister.
I understand it's common sense to check with the rule maker exactly what the rules are of a market before parting with my hard earned cash, unfortunately for some involved in this market common sense has gone out of the window & they're still in denial.
The best advice I can give you now is trade out of your position while you still can...a small red is better than a large red.
Jun 6, 2019 -- 5:37PM, Libertine93 wrote:
Their response hasn’t been the same throughout though I was told by betfair CS word for word Me “if she resigns on June 7th that will settle the market?”CS “exactly, it is the date that Theresa May resigns not when a new leader is chosen”Fee free to DM me if you want the screenshot.
You were kind enough to share that screenshot with me shortly after May announced her departure timetable on the 24th May & I agreed with you the rules are very vague.
There was some initial confusion by some CS staff but they were quickly updated by 'The Traders' on their rules for settlement on this market.
Since then further information has been released by the Conservative party this week "While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th of June, she will not officially leave until a new leader has been chosen.
This legally does get Betfair 'off the hook' so to speak, well played 'The Traders'.
Jun 6, 2019 -- 9:07PM, dave1357 wrote:
Interestingly, if Boris wins the tory leadership, he might not be able to go to the Queen and say he can form a government.
Jun 7, 2019 -- 11:51AM, Chemosabe wrote:
BBC News headlines this morning. Verbatim:"Theresa May officially steps down as Tory leader".https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452If Betfair are going to ignore a statement by our STATE BROADCASTER because it doesn't suit their book, then Betfair are going to be in for a world of pain. There's a clear conflict of interest in the way they are managing this market.
No I don't work for them so I wish you the best of luck in trying to sue them.
Jun 7, 2019 -- 12:41PM, donny osmond wrote:
bbc staff must have thought they were cleaning up when theygot news of mays resignation.
Jun 7, 2019 -- 2:42PM, tobermory wrote:
As a June backer I don't have a problem with active leader being considered official leader.My issue with this was that she would still be considered leader if the position was officially vacant.Now the only hope of June rests on Boris making the two and the other candidate accepting foreign office or chancellor rather than lose to Boris and become a backbencher.
Best of luck with your bet but I wouldn't put any more money on it.