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politicspunter
09 Apr 19 13:25
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 32,285 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Some prices now available in the event UK has to hold EU elections...

Void if elections do not take place. Dead Heat rules apply. (Ladbrokes)
Labour
2.10
Brexit Party
3.50
Conservatives
6.00
UKIP
9.00
Change UK
13.00
Liberal Democrats
26.00
Greens
101.00
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Report thegiggilo May 25, 2019 3:59 PM BST
Iwas looking at the labour party on twitter and corbyns post for the candidate,if you look at the repliys i don't know whats going on but near,y every tweet was ann anrti corbyn/labour tweet i couldn't believe i was on the labour site,i was expecting the opposite..Again it looks like  being another diaster for corbyn,no ones voting labourt its going to be ab annihilation think voters have had enough of him and labour..They have actually taken it off there now as well i think,was very astrange to read why would there be 200/300 tweets being anto labour on the actual labour sitre about the perterboroygh by election..
Report donny osmond May 25, 2019 4:15 PM BST
orchestrated campaign?
Report donny osmond May 25, 2019 4:16 PM BST
orchestrated campaign?
Report thegiggilo May 25, 2019 4:20 PM BST
Was very strange as it looked a mixture of voters couldn't say they were mainly brexit voters,i think there were 100s and yet only 2/3 posituve ones i had to keeop checking i was actually on the labour site,they were rubbishing the labour candidate as well most of them were quite abusive mocking saying labiur were finished,but it seemed to be an anti corbyn get rid of him theme..Very strange to read,as the candidate got no support,i wouldv'e expected the tweets to be big labour supporters wishing her luck,if you can find it on there its worth looking at..If thats a reflection of a wide range of pepple labour under corbyn are finished..
Report thegiggilo May 25, 2019 4:30 PM BST
There's another one up now where he's put a link to writing in the mirror this is his actual twiiter account getting rubbished by nearly every poster saying resign etc,,...


https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/113221583735879680
Report thegiggilo May 25, 2019 4:46 PM BST
Someone on there says there's going to be a poll up sunday night,showing that labour supporters want corbyn to resign i thought it was my imagination but this was the trend over the euro elections thats why i knew labour were going to get annihlated,that link i've given you is unreal absolutely destroyed by every tweet..on his own account.
Report thegiggilo May 25, 2019 6:27 PM BST
No deal into 2/1 be 5/6 the pair in a couple of days..!
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 5:21 PM BST
so , ...not long now , how do we see it?

brexit 29%
lib dem 21%
lab 15%
con 9%
green 9%
chuk 6%
ukips 2%

guesses for me
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 5:39 PM BST
Britain elects has a prediction of 33 seats for brexit party..
Report unitedbiscuits May 26, 2019 5:40 PM BST
A minority. Good.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 5:49 PM BST
33 would be top end of their expectation , quite a decent performance to get that many.
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 5:57 PM BST
If they don't get 35% at least after all the coverage and money they've spent would be a terrible result,considering most havn't even voted would further the remain cause or at least a peoples vote..
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 6:04 PM BST
Will be an amazing achievement if The Brexit Party manage to get in the top 3 parties after only be formed a few weeks ago.

It would be a great result for those of us who believe in the UK and want Brexit to happen as promised.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 6:09 PM BST
lol, top 3

the turnout figures appear to have lowered expectation
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 6:12 PM BST
Can't believe they won't poll 35% after all the hype and irs what the people want lol,would be an awful result considering evety brexiteer voted and most people stayed at home what a complete waste of time and efforrt that woulldv'e been...
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 6:14 PM BST
i suppose thats why they want to talk it down now, to build it up later

paid spinners back in place for a long night....
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 6:15 PM BST
donny osmond
26 May 19 18:09
Joined: 02 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 84,310 | Blogger: donny osmond's blog
lol, top 3

^

Would be an amazing result given the Tories and Labours have been around for many decades as have the Libdems.

The Greens are strong and established and the new ChangeUK have a lot of high profile MPs and got a lot of anti-Brexit media.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 6:16 PM BST
russian bots with 8 numbers in their name ready to
log into twitter to amplify the spin....
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 6:17 PM BST
they were 1.01 to be top 3 as soon as polls were confirmed to take place.
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 6:24 PM BST
If you looked at the stuff on social median they were talking of 50% at one time,with huge turnouts all this kerfuffle it just strengthends the arguement of people don't want any no deal scenario,around 6 of the constituencys the turnout was 25% in leave areas.Realization hitting home of whats the point in voting for somethung we're not getting any benefits from,there's a hardcore group and that's it what you would expect at abytime..
Report unitedbiscuits May 26, 2019 6:25 PM BST
I am ashamed of the Brexity MEPs we foisted on the EU in 2014, when I did not vote.
Were there not two UKIP MEPs rolling around on the EU carpet?
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 6:37 PM BST
One thing i'm sure about labour have been annihilated,the figures i have seen are far to high my guess would be brexit nearer 35% and maybe some more labour vote going to greens,thats what everyone i know who vorte labour did voted green or lib dems..
Report edy May 26, 2019 6:40 PM BST
Make of the what you want and who this mysterious "Dr" is.

Brian Cox
vor 21 Minuten
DR. I'm relying on you to get them all frothing and sniping tonight when your results come in, great free entertainment it will be better than watching repeats of Krik Sovi.
Report edy May 26, 2019 6:40 PM BST
*the following
Report edy May 26, 2019 6:42 PM BST
For context: Brian Cox is a person on YouTube who gets people banned here all the time after Dr Crippen purposefully baited them into abuse.
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 6:42 PM BST
If TBP get above 20% of votes it would an amazing result.

Astonishing in fact and would show the EU that the Brits mean business.

The Tories would tighten up their policies to get us the clean break we need.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 6:45 PM BST
reports that labour have been stuffed by lib dems in london




not sure any result would be gutting having seen sunderland blow a lead and suffer last second defeat
in play off at wembly, not that i watched it. ...that on top of sunland fans making fools of themselves in
the fountains of london.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 6:47 PM BST
over 20% lol

you would have got good odds under 20%, indeed you still can

have you been on silly pills it?
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 6:52 PM BST
6% of voters lol considerig all the brexit voters voted how could it be lower than 40% i don't understand how they are only polling in the 30s as never nmade sense to me,the only explaination very few are interested and places like middlesborough 75 % never voted..That tells you that don'r want to riskk ant no deal brexit even if they may want to leave,which you will never know on a turnout that small..
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 6:54 PM BST
Look back to the start of this thread.

Respected posters were suggesting the leave vote would be split between TBP and UKIP, there was a ceiling for both of around 26% and that most peoples' votes in this election would not be decided around Brexit.

I didn't see anyone early on shouting that TBP would get anything like 20%.

So if they achieve that it would be an amazing result.

Fingers cross but don't count your chickens before they hatch.
Report politicspunter May 26, 2019 6:55 PM BST

May 26, 2019 -- 12:42PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


If TBP get above 20% of votes it would an amazing result.Astonishing in fact and would show the EU that the Brits mean business.The Tories would tighten up their policies to get us the clean break we need.


7% of the electorate?

Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 6:55 PM BST
Respected posters were all saying it was a straight race between the Tories and Labour.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 6:57 PM BST
err i seemed to forecast brexit would get ukip vote and ukip would get bnp share

we talked about as low as 25%




still get 100 or more for under 20% and 200+ unde 15 if you are truely worried
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 6:58 PM BST
It would be an amazing achievement if they got 20%+ of the vote given what people were saying a few short weeks ago Donny.

Lets see how they go.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 7:13 PM BST
ha ha

if thats your brief they must be worried
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 7:16 PM BST
?
Report politicspunter May 26, 2019 7:17 PM BST
I think a few short weeks ago the forecast was 40-50%
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 7:20 PM BST
the beauty , of course ,is that the thread goes back over that period of time and it would seem
the shock of getting over 20% was more than covered  in early posts, so quite why you are trying
to be silly about it seems odd...
Report aaronh May 26, 2019 7:24 PM BST
Britain Elects posted this prediction

seats/%

BXP 24 / 31.6
LD 15 / 18.9
LAB 14 / 19.1
CON 10 / 12.4
GRN 4 / 9.8
SNP 2
PC 1

OTH 8.2%
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 7:25 PM BST
look first 3 posts have not been removed...



European Parliament elections in UK betting

politicspunter
politicspunter 09 Apr 19 14:25 Joined: 20 Mar 18 | Topic/replies: 4,442 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Some prices now available in the event UK has to hold EU elections...

Void if elections do not take place. Dead Heat rules apply. (Ladbrokes)
Labour
2.10
Brexit Party
3.50
Conservatives
6.00
UKIP
9.00
Change UK
13.00
Liberal Democrats
26.00
Greens
101.00
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politicspunter
politicspunter 09 Apr 19 14:29 Joined: 20 Mar 18 | Topic/replies: 4,442 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
That Brexit Party price looks very short to me.
Rate reply:
| report block user
InsiderTrader
Ins quite big to me.


Their vote will be split with UKIP but remain vote split between Greens, LDs, Change, Labour and Tories.

Labour very very short as are the Tories.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 7:28 PM BST
bold didnt work there and editted post by it  !



Looks quite big to me.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 7:30 PM BST
britain elects based on polls and turnout, released at 7 pm
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 7:33 PM BST
Donny that was my view as a novice in politics betting and maybe I was too optimistic.

If you read on you will see experts come in and talk down the chances of TBP saying the vote would be split with UKIP and there was ceiling on the vote limit (for both) of mid to late 20s.

Fingers crossed the novice view will be right tonight and the Brexit Party can get 20% plus.
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 7:37 PM BST
Final nail in coffin for no deal if those results are anywhere near right,no way any new primeminisyer will be going for no deal on those results..
Report InsiderTrader May 26, 2019 7:52 PM BST
clearly we would be unable to go into negotiations where the EU was willing to have no deal and we were not.

In those circumstances we would have to take whatever crumbs the EU offers.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 7:56 PM BST
a novice lol

you say some silly things when your spin breaks down
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 8:37 PM BST
Results of the 2014 European Parliament election for the United Kingdom[40][41]

UK Independence Party    4,376,635    26.6     24   
Labour Party    4,020,646    24.4       20
Conservative Party    3,792,549    23.1      19   
Green Party of England and Wales    1,136,670    6.9    3
Liberal Democrats    1,087,633    6.6    1   
Scottish National Party    389,503    2.4    2   
An Independence from Europe    235,124    1.4   
British National Party    179,694    1.1    0   
Sinn Féin    159,813    1.0    1   
DUP    131,163    0.8    1   
English Democrats    126,024    0.8
Plaid Cymru    111,864    0.7    1   
Scottish Green Party    108,305    0.7   
Ulster Unionist Party    83,438    0.5    1   
SDLP    81,594    0.5   
TUV    75,806    0.5   
Christian Peoples Alliance    50,222    0.3
Alliance    44,432    0.3   
No2EU    31,757    0.2   
4 Freedoms Party (UK EPP)    28,014    0.2   
We Demand a Referendum Now    23,426    0.1   
NHA    23,253    0.1   
Animal Welfare Party    21,092    0.1   
Britain First    20,272    0.1   
Yorkshire First    19,017    0.1   
Europeans Party    10,712   
Green (NI)    10,598    0.1   
NI21    10,553    0.1   
Peace Party    10,130    0.1   
Others    55,011    0.3   
Valid Votes    16,454,950    99.5        73   
Rejected Votes    90,812    0.6   
Overall turnout    16,545,762
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 26, 2019 9:55 PM BST
For me the important thing is the number.

17m or so voted for brexit and Nige and his amplifiers would have us believe that everyone of those wanted hard brexit and also that the number has risen.

The opponents would say that number has reduced dramatically.

Let's see how much it's increased by.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 10:22 PM BST
lib dems and brexit cleaning up in early counts
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 10:28 PM BST
Looks like my 35-40% going to be bang on..
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 10:36 PM BST
got them on 32 on bbc but i dont know how that projects into 650 constituencies
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 26, 2019 10:39 PM BST
Yep, low 30s for me is my guess.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 10:43 PM BST
yeah, 32 is from 20 councils, its not a projection of final result

ive not seen a full projection yet
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 10:45 PM BST
From what i can see remain is miles infront in most of these seats

Cardiff (Wales) result:

Brex: 21.2% (+21.2)
LDem: 20.9% (+14.2)
PC: 20.2% (+9.4)
Lab: 17.4% (-13.5)
Grn: 8.5% (+1.2)
Con: 6.4% (-12.5



Loads of seats like this
Report impossible123 May 26, 2019 10:50 PM BST
So, I'm not in the minority after all in voting for the Brexit Party in The EU Election despite being a long term Labour supporter: The Brexit Party have on average gathered about 30% of the votes declared.

The Labour and Conservatives Parties votes are down 12% - 13%, no surprise there except for Mr Corbyn and his make-shift front benchers.
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 10:53 PM BST
lib dems miss seat in north east by 15k votes, ...chuk took 25 k votes

lib dems got 17% and no seat..
Report jucel69 May 26, 2019 10:56 PM BST

May 26, 2019 -- 4:45PM, thegiggilo wrote:


From what i can see remain is miles infront in most of these seats Cardiff (Wales) result:Brex: 21.2% (+21.2)LDem: 20.9% (+14.2)PC: 20.2% (+9.4)Lab: 17.4% (-13.5)Grn: 8.5% (+1.2)Con: 6.4% (-12.5Loads of seats like this


There is no remain, they lost 3 years ago

Debate. Vote. Implement. 

Report anxious May 26, 2019 10:58 PM BST
This brexit party formed 6 weeks ago who with a brain would vote for these idiots seriously
Report anxious May 26, 2019 11:00 PM BST
Farage the cult of personality what lies behind him apart from wanting to leave the EU , probably more far right wing free market garbage
Report impossible123 May 26, 2019 11:00 PM BST
CHUK (Chuka) could only beat UKIP - the one policy Party; it's time CHUK is euthanized!
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 11:00 PM BST
brexit picking up about 5% on top of ukip2014

the collapse of lab and con is going to remain parties....
Report thegiggilo May 26, 2019 11:01 PM BST
Tommy given a pasting,probably the most important thing about these meaningless elections..
Report aaronh May 26, 2019 11:01 PM BST

May 26, 2019 -- 5:00PM, anxious wrote:


Farage the cult of personality what lies behind him apart from wanting to leave the EU , probably more far right wing free market garbage


do you not think the working class are desperate for the return of thatcherite economics Cry

Report jucel69 May 26, 2019 11:03 PM BST

May 26, 2019 -- 5:01PM, aaronh wrote:


May 26, 2019 -- 11:00PM, anxious wrote:Farage the cult of personality what lies behind him apart from wanting to leave the EU , probably more far right wing free market garbagedo you not think the working class are desperate for the return of thatcherite economics


Yeh we should have carried on mining and manufacturing at losses, genius idea

Report anxious May 26, 2019 11:07 PM BST
really thats why this country now produces nothing any more , because of the industrial vandalism started by thatcherism and her fanatics
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 11:07 PM BST
only about 33% for brexit ukip thus far...
Report anxious May 26, 2019 11:08 PM BST
Sell everything off to  the the private cowboy spiv firms
Report jucel69 May 26, 2019 11:08 PM BST

May 26, 2019 -- 5:07PM, anxious wrote:


really thats why this country now produces nothing any more , because of the industrial vandalism started by thatcherism and her fanatics


You can't stay in the past and once you become noncompetitive you have to move to different sectors.
Countries and economies evolve with time.

Report jucel69 May 26, 2019 11:10 PM BST

May 26, 2019 -- 5:08PM, anxious wrote:


Sell everything off to

Report anxious May 26, 2019 11:11 PM BST
Evolve we have gone back about 100 years
Report anxious May 26, 2019 11:12 PM BST
The top elites and the big business and banks are the only survivors
Report jucel69 May 26, 2019 11:12 PM BST
You need to be pragmatic not idealistic
It's not ideal, but the alternative (socialism) is far far worse
Report anxious May 26, 2019 11:13 PM BST
lol its more Socialism we need not less
Report anxious May 26, 2019 11:14 PM BST
it will end as Socialism v Barbarism
Report jucel69 May 26, 2019 11:16 PM BST

May 26, 2019 -- 5:14PM, anxious wrote:


it will end as Socialism v Barbarism


the theory of socialism and the reality are two different things

Report impossible123 May 26, 2019 11:18 PM BST
British utility companies sold to foreigners/europeans, then solicit foreigners eg Japanese to facilitate finance to re-build that industry - how shameful is that? Nothing but a form of PFI on a national scale.
Report jucel69 May 26, 2019 11:32 PM BST
The Conservatives are currently on a higher vote share in Scotland than in England
Report donny osmond May 26, 2019 11:44 PM BST
brexit picking up ukip vote and 3/4 of tory losses

the rest going to remain, as are labour losses..
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 9:53 AM BST
#Europeanelections 2019 : Seats GB 

Remain parties
Lab  10
LibDems16
SNP 3
Green 7
Plaid   1
TOTAL: 37 (10 more than last time)

Leave parties:
BrexitParty 29
Con 4
UKIP 0
TOTAL:  33 (10 fewer than last time)

=> clear swing from Leave to Remain !
Report InsiderTrader May 27, 2019 9:57 AM BST
Is Labour definitely a remain party?
Report KrushersAxe May 27, 2019 10:00 AM BST
Corbyn want to leave...Momentum want to remain, count them as 50-50

To understand why the anti-democratic EU is a complete and utter waste of money, please watch "Brexit the Movie"
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 10:14 AM BST
is tory deffo leave too

yes they are
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 10:15 AM BST
if you put labour in leave, then the swing would be even greater, as they lost seats anyway.
Report n88uk May 27, 2019 10:19 AM BST
74% of Labour voters are remainers. Like 27% of Conservatives. I mean I can't understand the mentality of latter but apparently is the case, just shows you how some people are literally voting the same way every election no matter what it is.
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 10:26 AM BST
some people never change their bank, their energy company and buy groceries
in same shop every week...likely vote same party every election.....sheep

keep telling folk here in durham, and previously in newcastle, if we had seats
where there was a chance of a change of party then the governments would
spend more monets in our constituency...but i'm bangin me heed against the wall.
Report politicspunter May 27, 2019 10:54 AM BST
My partners youngest brother 50th birthday surprise lunch today so hopefully I can stay wakened! Initial thoughts are that yougov/Ipsos Mori did best on the opinion polls for the UK, some of the others were miles out. I didn't realise that some countries didn't start counting till today so won't know full results until some time tonight I guess. I managed to trap some good results (NA at 18/1 in Latvia, SDE at 28/1 in Estonia) but I had some stinkers along the way too. One thing that has stood out as regards the betting is that the party that is strong favourite may win the most votes but the bookies pay out on most seats and there can be good value in shopping around and checking polls thoroughly for parties that may creep in to be equal first in seat allocation.
Report InsiderTrader May 27, 2019 11:36 AM BST
Good calls PP.

The Brexit Party under performed some of the Polls.

Lib dems did very well.

Neither side got a majority and if the Tories or Labour switch one way or the other they would also have no chance of a majority.
Report thegiggilo May 27, 2019 12:14 PM BST
What were the final percentages can't find them anywhere..?
Report InsiderTrader May 27, 2019 12:19 PM BST
Waiting for Scotland and NI.

This is quite a good graphic...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament

Shows TBP down on some of the polls even before Scotland and NI.
Report treetop May 27, 2019 12:54 PM BST
I reckon Labour suffered more than people realised yetserday. Visited my old working mens club to meet a lad I went to school with many moons ago. Sat in the bar surrounded by what i would naturally define as Labour voters to the core and they were visceral about the Labour party. About half voted Brexit and the other half didnt bother because ' they take no notice so why bother' approach. This is no flippant comment,these lads all hated what Labour have become and I fully agree with donny about becoming marginal in our area gets an advantage from government investment.Didnt expect it to come about this way but change is happening.
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 1:03 PM BST
heed bangin working at last, phew!
Report thegiggilo May 27, 2019 1:09 PM BST
What change is happening, it's news to me,all i've seen is some older voters vote for a minority party on one isssue on a low turnout//
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 1:14 PM BST
if we can get these old folk to lidl, to leave barclays, and british gas
and stop buying silly comics each morning they will be quids in.
Report impossible123 May 27, 2019 5:17 PM BST
Assuming the major Parties stitched up the electorate again and agree to a 2nd Referendum what price would the Brexit Party (BP) be to secure the most seats? Or do better than either the Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem? BP was 3.5 at the beginning of this one.
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 5:24 PM BST
i dont think bp would stand in a referendum it would some remain clause not yet agreed v some brexit clause
not yet agreed
Report politicspunter May 27, 2019 5:30 PM BST

May 27, 2019 -- 11:17AM, impossible123 wrote:


Assuming the major Parties stitched up the electorate again and agree to a 2nd Referendum what price would the Brexit Party (BP) be to secure the most seats? Or do better than either the Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem? BP was 3.5 at the beginning of this one.


3.75 Brexit Party was the biggest price I could find.

Report impossible123 May 27, 2019 8:35 PM BST
I accept. However, if Labour and the Conservatives did engineer a 2nd Referendum the electorate would punish them in the next General Election, and I'd be one of those, for sure.
Report donny osmond May 27, 2019 8:43 PM BST
wouldnt be much point if you lost a third referendum, you wouldnt get a fourth for a thousand years
Report jucel69 May 27, 2019 11:37 PM BST
How many Europeans residing in the UK voted?
Surely they would have skewed the figs to a certain extent
Report thegiggilo June 1, 2019 8:10 PM BST
More
Westminster voting intention:

BREX: 26% (+1)
LAB: 22% (-4)
CON: 17% (-5)
LDEM: 16% (+4)
GRN: 11% (+7)
CHUK: 1% (-1)
UKIP: 1% (-1)

via @OpiniumResearch, 28 - 30 May
Chgs. w/ 20 May
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