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politicspunter
23 Feb 19 21:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 23,648 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
LAB 32 (-5)
CON 40 (+3)
TIG 6
LD 5 (-3)
UKIP 7 (=)

Tiggers taking votes from Labour and LibDem but not Conservative.
Pause Switch to Standard View New opinion research poll has Con 8...
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Report Dotchinite March 31, 2019 1:14 PM BST
Spot on donny but thats politics all over. Theres plenty of people who defend policies and personalities just because they come from a politician who is in "their" party.

Rational people in political discussions are in even shorter supply than in life in general.
Report enpassant March 31, 2019 4:17 PM BST
I think it is more media pushing polls that suit their narrative than it is people. We have seen polls getting it wrong but even at the last GE they began to show the trend to Labour in the final few days. So they need a fair deal of consideration before you take anything solid from them imo.
Report impossible123 March 31, 2019 5:06 PM BST
I remember Labour were well in the lead, and Mr Kinnock already had one-foot in No 10...
Report enpassant March 31, 2019 5:24 PM BST
326 Politics
@326Pols
·
32m
Westminster voting projection, turnout adjusted:

LAB: 43% (+7)
CON: 37% (-9)
LIB: 10% (+2)
UKP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

@DeltapollUK
, 28–30 Mar
Changes with 21–23 Feb

(Headline figures: LAB 41, CON 36, LIB 7, UKP 7, GRN 3)
Report enpassant March 31, 2019 5:24 PM BST
326 Politics
@326Pols
·
34m
Westminster voting projection, turnout adjusted:

LAB: 38% (-)
CON: 38% (-2)
LIB: 11% (+2)
UKP: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

@OpiniumResearch
, 28–29 Mar
Changes with 20–22 Mar

(Headline figures: CON 35, LAB 35, LIB 9, UKP 9, GRN 5)
Report InsiderTrader March 31, 2019 5:30 PM BST
Never trust the polls.

These polls with a big Labour lead appear just as May is pushing for a General Election but elements in the establishment do not want one right now.
Report thegiggilo March 31, 2019 5:49 PM BST
The more brexit looks likely to go through the worse it gets for the tories,what a dilemma for them Shocked
Report thegiggilo March 31, 2019 5:49 PM BST
The more brexit looks likely to go through the worse it gets for the tories,what a dilemma for them Shocked
Report enpassant April 1, 2019 1:58 AM BST
326 Politics
@326Pols
·
4h
I've just been looking at polling in the regions of the UK, and I think if there were a snap election, the Tories could well be in real trouble in the south of England. In the south (excl. London), it's CON
⬇️
7.3% and LAB
⬆️
2.0%.
Report enpassant April 1, 2019 1:58 AM BST
326 Politics
@326Pols
·
4h
Interestingly, while the Revoke Article 50 petition is not necessarily reflective of how the country would vote in a 2nd referendum, these results align with the notable shift towards Remain apparent in the south, something which could be driving Tory misfortune.
Report enpassant April 1, 2019 1:59 AM BST
326 Politics
@326Pols
·
4h
This hasn't been picked up on by political commentators and other psephologists, and it may mean eating my hat come a snap election, but it does appear like a long-term shift is continuing in party support by region. OTOH, LAB losing more support than CON in Midlands.
Report thegiggilo April 1, 2019 9:45 AM BST
Labour could be headong for a diaster in the midlands,its gradually crept to working class areas going tory a lot of the seats have always been quite close but looks very dangerous for labour,for example they lost Telford up the road from me and they may well lose it again massive brexit area..These are the sort of seats labour should be winning by a landslide,thet need to target seats like this and a very strange candidate there,they put up a sikh there last time in a huge brexit working class area against a white woman were never going to win.
Report enpassant April 1, 2019 9:53 AM BST
Do you want them to pander to racists ?
Report enpassant April 1, 2019 9:57 AM BST
You have also posted many times that Labour should be for/in favour of remaining so how do they appeal to a big leave area and remainers ?
Report donny osmond April 1, 2019 10:08 AM BST
labour are the only party with a workable brexit policy

funny old world
Report thegiggilo April 1, 2019 10:08 AM BST
Telford is also a large muslim area,so not only did they have the anti brexit vote but the muslim vote mustv'e been lost as well pretty sure muslims and sikhs do not get on,whoever picked that candidate mustv'e had a brain the size of a pea.They still only just lost the seat so no reason why they can't win it even on a remain candidate i don't know how the vote is made up there,but putting a sikh up was laughable trying to win that seat.
Report thegiggilo April 1, 2019 10:19 AM BST
I also said labour should be seen to be a party of backing remain,i never really thought that would happen they just had to make sure they weren't backing a tory brexit if recent polls are anything to go by its wprking already..
Report enpassant April 1, 2019 10:44 AM BST
We are a secular society and cannot, must not start to pick and choose on grounds other than merit.
Report thegiggilo April 1, 2019 11:48 AM BST
If that were the case we would have women in full burkhas in white working class brexit areas,it's never going to happen certainly not in foreseaable future.
Report enpassant April 1, 2019 12:41 PM BST
That is a disconcerting post.
Report treetop April 3, 2019 11:21 AM BST
labour are the only party with a workable brexit policy

Most political commentators and electorate seem to be confused about what that may be Donny ? Remain ?
Report donny osmond April 3, 2019 11:30 AM BST
its been said often enough treetop, but if you wish to feign ignorance
carry on...
Report treetop April 3, 2019 11:45 AM BST
Corbyn keeps sounding confused and if the leader doesn't explain it most of the country cant understand it. Remain ? Talk to Brussels,stab May in the back,I would appreciate it if you could elaborate on that.
Report politicspunter April 3, 2019 11:56 AM BST
????
Report enpassant April 3, 2019 11:57 AM BST
Hahaha 'confused' - saying the same thing, same plan over and over is now confusing hahaha.
Report treetop April 3, 2019 12:03 PM BST
So,what is the plan ?
Report enpassant April 3, 2019 12:12 PM BST
A permanent and comprehensive customs union with the EU;
    Close alignment with the Single Market;
    Dynamic alignment on rights and protections;
    Commitments on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes;
    Unambiguous agreements on the detail of future security arrangements.
Report treetop April 3, 2019 12:39 PM BST
And how is he going to achieve that with an EU that has been obstructive, just by talking or caving in repeatedly ? Sounds more like Remain to most people and he would command more respect by admitting it.
Report politicspunter April 3, 2019 12:44 PM BST
treetop, why are you on here asking people policy questions then criticise them when they help you?
Report treetop April 3, 2019 12:59 PM BST
I am not criticising them pp, just pointing out the naivety that Corbyn is taking the easy route standing back,not offering much but easy platitudes, instead of working with the govt to get a reasonable solution to the referendum choice. We can easily say we can talk to the EU and claim a solution but the EU have consistently blocked any reasonable approach by the govt and May,for all of her faults,has shown incredible resilience trying to steer a path through an absolute minefield.I see the only path as a No Deal that should have been prepared for long ago but feel the EU is going to dump this on us when our civil service and negativity in Westminster has left us high and dry.
Report politicspunter April 3, 2019 1:08 PM BST
Perhaps May has now eventually realised the folly of calling an unnecessary general election? Perhaps she should have resigned immediately the result was known? Perhaps she should have discussed matters earlier with Corbyn rather than the ERG or DUP?  Perhaps...
Report treetop April 3, 2019 1:14 PM BST
That decision will go down as her worst choice,wounded herself unnecessarily. Tip for you pp for fun, Canvassed at Kempton tonight,a knocking bet.
Report politicspunter April 3, 2019 1:19 PM BST
I don't do horses normally but thanks anyway. I will be having a bet on the Grand National though!
Report enpassant April 3, 2019 1:22 PM BST
You said he was confused. Then you asked for his plan. I gave you a reason why he does not sound confused at all and then gave you his plan.
Whether the EU would negotiate with his plan is up for debate but that is an entirely different issue of course.
Report donny osmond April 3, 2019 1:54 PM BST
treetop

you hadnt seen the plan, lol

but have a prepared reply when its posted...



quite layghable unless you now wish to play the only trolling card ...
Report treetop April 3, 2019 10:39 PM BST
Not really Donny,I hadn't seen the plan but it seems to be made up as he goes along to suit the media appeal. Even he has contradicted Starmer at times, Anyway my emotions are all more affable after lumping on the 6-45 and a 0-3 win tonight,even though that league 1 footie is gruesome to watch.
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 12:21 AM BST
always nice to back a winner!

CoolCool
Report sageform April 4, 2019 10:48 AM BST
If Labour do force a General Election, they might get smashed. I believe that Mrs May lost at least a million votes by revoking the fixed term Parliament Act last time as the public widely support it. If either party trigger a Parliamentary vote (they need 66% of MP's in favour) to revoke it again they will lose votes.
Report donny osmond April 4, 2019 11:03 AM BST
she didnt revoke the act, she operated within the act.

she lost votes through her dreadful campaign of taxing the old and the dead
Report did47 April 4, 2019 3:16 PM BST
and supporting foxhunting.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 11:26 AM BST
CON: 32% (-4)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+3)
BREX: 5% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)

via @YouGov, 02 - 03 Apr
Chgs. w/ 25 Mar

Highest LibDem figure for 12 years apparently.
Report InsiderTrader April 5, 2019 11:34 AM BST
13% for UKIP/BREXIT is highest for a while?
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 11:40 AM BST
As the Newport by election highlighted, all these anti brexit parties are doing is splitting the leave vote and allowing the remainer to win more easily in closely fought constituencies.
Report n88uk April 5, 2019 11:56 AM BST
Why the sudden Lib Dem surge, people not trusting Labour's Brexit approach?
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:03 PM BST
A clear remain option in an uncertain, untrustworthy political world.
Report n88uk April 5, 2019 12:06 PM BST
How do SNP currently poll in Scotland?
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 12:16 PM BST
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html

This is the best seat by seat guide for Scotland.
Report sageform April 5, 2019 2:34 PM BST
37% turnout is an ominous sign of the public view of all of them. The majority of voters refused to vote for any of the candidates on the ballot. That could happen in a General Election imo.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 2:38 PM BST
37% is ok for a by election. Usual stuff, apathy, poor weather, one party big favourite to win.
Report unitedbiscuits April 5, 2019 2:45 PM BST
Shadow boxing.
Read nothing into the result.
Everybody wants to see the back of the Brexit humiliation, only a referendum can settle it.  It's the issue overhanging politics until we lance the boil and drain the poison. If the result of a referendum was certain, we wouldn't need it, but the sight of Leavers running scared and praying for the final whistle is cringeworthy.
Report politicspunter April 5, 2019 2:45 PM BST
By-election    Turnout %
Manchester Central by-election, 2012    18.2%
Leeds Central by-election, 1999    19.6%
Shoreditch and Finsbury by-election, 1958    24.9%
Wigan by-election, 1999    25.0%
Tottenham by-election, 2000    25.4%
Cardiff South and Penarth by-election, 2012    25.7%
Batley and Spen by-election, 2016    25.8%
Newham South by-election, 1974    25.9%
Middlesbrough by-election, 2012    26.0%
Croydon North by-election, 2012    26.5%
West Bromwich West by-election, 2000    27.6%
Feltham and Heston by-election, 2011    28.8%
Preston by-election, 2000    29.6%
Kensington and Chelsea by-election, 1999    29.7%
Report donny osmond April 5, 2019 10:20 PM BST
stoke on trent 2017 by election 165% .....nuttall 103% swing
Report thegiggilo April 8, 2019 9:39 AM BST
More
Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 33% (-2)
CON: 26% (-3)
PC: 15% (+1)
CHUK: 9% (+9)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
BREX: 4% (+4)
UKIP: 3% (-3)

Even in wales this tigs party getting 9%,looks like the good old brits are settling for the middle of the road yet again,may as wekl get blair back..
Report politicspunter April 8, 2019 11:28 AM BST
Same Wales pattern as before. Labour and Tories down, Plaid and LibDem up. Brexit and UKIP parties splitting the leave vote effectively nullifying their impact. CHUK at 9% is significant but can they maintain that support at elections? So far they have refused to stand for re-election in their own constituencies and didn't put forward a candidate for the Newport by election.
Report thegiggilo April 8, 2019 11:34 AM BST
This is wales though not england,if this is a growing trend its back to centre ground politucs and goodbye labour which at the moment looks ominous,been the same since the beginning of time in the uk nothing ever changes the status quo remains.
Report donny osmond April 8, 2019 1:14 PM BST
rocking all over the world!
Report lord skywalker April 8, 2019 1:32 PM BST
how can you call the 2016 vote close, leave won by more than a  million votes, no deal isnt the disaster many mps would have you beleive, other countries arent suddenly gonna stop trading with us because were out of the eu, prices arent suddenly gonna shoot up, this is all project fear
Report thegiggilo April 8, 2019 1:36 PM BST
Both status quos would be awful..Devil
Report enpassant April 11, 2019 12:03 AM BST
LAB: 43% CON: 34%

I couldn't post on here for some reason earlier but it let me start a thread !
Report unitedbiscuits April 11, 2019 7:10 AM BST
Clear your cookies (data history).
Report thegiggilo April 11, 2019 12:45 PM BST
Britain Elects


@britainelects
6h6 hours ago
More
Westminster voting intention (ft. new parties):

LAB: 31% (-3)
CON: 29% (-10)
CHUK: 8% (+8)
LDEM: 8% (-4)
UKIP: 7% (+2)
BREX: 6% (+6)
GRN: 4% (-)

via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Apr
Chgs. w/ 08 Mar standard voting intention.

Back to reality..
Report unitedbiscuits April 11, 2019 12:49 PM BST
Don't tell enpassant...
Report thegiggilo April 11, 2019 4:03 PM BST
We have updated England and Wales General Election voting intention from polling conducted 3rd-8th April:



Top-line voting intention figures (change vs 2017 General Election results):

CON 37% (-8) LAB 41% (-1) LD 10% (+2) UKIP 7% (+5) GRE 2% (nc) PC 1% (nc) CHUK/TIG 1% (new) AP 2%

Survation
Report n88uk April 11, 2019 5:51 PM BST
All these polls suggest the same thing to me that I've thought for a while that a GE would lead to a Labour coalition with SNP/LD or both.
Report thegiggilo April 11, 2019 6:34 PM BST
I don't believe these polls yet,if you read anything from tiry or labour members everybody seems to be dissatisfied i find it hard to believe these smaller partys aren't going to get more of the vote if things continue how they are..
Report politicspunter April 11, 2019 7:54 PM BST
Some of the smaller parties like CHUK, UKIP, Brexit, Green etc might get extra votes but highly doubtful they can translate that into Westminster seats.
Report n88uk April 12, 2019 12:33 AM BST
It's gonna be a hung parliament almost certainly though as it stands.
Report mafeking April 12, 2019 2:18 AM BST
last 3 elections have not really produced the form result though - cameron was expected to win outright in 2010, got a majority in 2015 when another hung parliament was likely and then may blew a huge lead in 2017. you'd have to pretty brave to stick your neck in these unpredictable times
Report politicspunter April 12, 2019 4:37 AM BST
Politicspunter betting rule 1..

Go for the one with the biggest price antepost then balance your book nearer the event.
Report enpassant April 12, 2019 12:01 PM BST
326 Politics
‏ @326Pols
19h19 hours ago

Westminster voting projection, turnout adjusted:

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 38% (+1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
UKP: 4% (N/A)
GRN: 2% (N/A)
TIG: 1% (+1)

@Survation, 3–8 April (England and Wales polled; we have imputed Scotland results to give a GB-wide share)
Changes with 15 Mar.
1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
326 Politics
‏ @326Pols
19h19 hours ago

Current aggregate general election forecast (GB-only; changes with 2017):

LAB: 38.1% (-2.9)
CON: 35.2% (-8.2)
LDM: 9.9% (+2.4)
UKP: 4.3% (+2.4)
SNP: 3.6% (+0.5)
GRN: 2.9% (+1.2)
BRX: 2.7% (+2.7)
PCY: 0.8% (+0.3)
TIG: 0.7% (+0.7)
Report enpassant April 12, 2019 12:02 PM BST

Apr 11, 2019 -- 1:49PM, unitedbiscuits wrote:


Don't tell enpassant...


It may be that you are becoming a little fixated on me UB. Let it go.

Report politicspunter April 13, 2019 8:25 AM BST
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 32% (+1)
CON: 28% (-4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 8% (+3)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
CHUK: 3% (New)

Via @YouGov, 10-11 Apr.
Changes w/ 2-3 Apr.

There has to be a limit somewhere to Conservative members patience.
Report enpassant April 13, 2019 12:02 PM BST
^It is said to be the first youguv poll to give Labour a lead since 2018
Report enpassant April 13, 2019 12:03 PM BST
'
Graham Woodhouse
‏ @yankface1
3h3 hours ago
Replying to @ElectionMapsUK @YouGov

If @UKLabour are 4 points ahead of the Tories on YouGov then the reality must be that they are at least 8 points clear.
'
Report enpassant April 13, 2019 12:04 PM BST
'Joe
Report enpassant April 13, 2019 12:05 PM BST
Joe
Report enpassant April 13, 2019 12:06 PM BST
'@JoeDynastyX
2h2 hours ago
Replying to @ElectionMapsUK @YouGov

Labour are ahead in YOUGOV! This is something I never thought I'd see! '
Report enpassant April 13, 2019 12:07 PM BST
It seems there is an amount of cynicism out there for these pollsters !
Report enpassant April 13, 2019 12:08 PM BST
A new Corbyn smear must be being worked on frantically.
Report Dotchinite April 14, 2019 11:36 AM BST
If only there was an election tomorrow it might be relevant.

As for "Corbyn smears" isnt that just a twisted way of criticizing someone who has pointed out something embarrassing
or damaging he has done in the past.
Report unitedbiscuits April 14, 2019 12:13 PM BST
Well, no, Dotchinite. There is a double-page article in today's Mail On Sunday about some perceived fault in Corbyn. The piece is framed under a picture of the back of Hitler's head, addressing a Nuremburg rally. I think Corbyn a weak, dishonest leader, but that treatment is disgusting.
Report Dotchinite April 14, 2019 1:23 PM BST
UB you can find articles in tabloid papers against all politicians that arent fair or balanced. In fact ones like you quote cause damage as they encourage the paranoid to believe somehow Corbyn is targetted with smears.
I wouldnt generalise and say all the stories are justified especially when you are referring to things such as the Mail
but the basis for so much of the criticism against him is based on his previous actions and comments.

Middle ground politics will soon revive as the main two parties dont represent anyone bar the fringes at both extremes.
Thats not sustainable and someone will fill this void be it Change UK or someone else.
Report thegiggilo April 14, 2019 1:33 PM BST
Conservative funded change uk friends of israel supporter liar,again politucs of lies and deciet already being seen through..
Report Dotchinite April 14, 2019 1:42 PM BST
What?
Report anxious April 14, 2019 5:29 PM BST
same old song from the tory fanboys any chance to discredit Jeremy and they are all over it , the tory lie machine and the financial institutions , billionaire  right wing press barons at it all the time
Report anxious April 14, 2019 5:30 PM BST
The Spiv filth have destroyed this country with their free market agenda
Report treetop April 14, 2019 7:53 PM BST
More people in employment than ever,unemployment among the lowest in Europe,especially under 25's,hundreds of thousands queuing up to get into the UK each year and general satisfaction with most people equates to destroyed ??? ffs get real lads.
Report thegiggilo April 14, 2019 8:59 PM BST
More
Our Westminster voting intention, as of 12 Apr:

Lab: 34.7% (-6.4)
Con: 33.1% (-10.5)
LDem: 10.0% (+2.4))
UKIP: 7.4% (+5.5)
Grn: 4.3% (+2.6)

[Oth]: 10.5% (+6.4)

Chgs. w/ GE2017 result.
Report enpassant April 14, 2019 11:39 PM BST

Apr 14, 2019 -- 12:36PM, Dotchinite wrote:


If only there was an election tomorrow it might be relevant.As for "Corbyn smears" isnt that just a twisted way of criticizing someone who has pointed out something embarrassingor damaging he has done in the past.


Nonsense.

Report enpassant April 14, 2019 11:46 PM BST

Apr 14, 2019 -- 8:53PM, treetop wrote:


More people in employment than ever,unemployment among the lowest in Europe,especially under 25's,hundreds of thousands queuing up to get into the UK each year and general satisfaction with most people equates to destroyed ??? ffs get real lads.


An hours work a week is 'employed' ffs get serious will you. The under 25's are being exploited across the board almost. Interviews for youngsters now often consist of doing a f..king shift of unpaid work.....ffs. One post available and they interview 30/40 kids and make them do a shift 'to see' if they are suitable f..k right off.

Report thegiggilo April 15, 2019 1:50 AM BST
Treetop living in the land of fantasy,no doubt a baby boomer with own house and decent pension why anyone over 65 thinks they can comment on how things are bemuses me...You could put a list of 20 things that are setting us back,kids going to school without having anything to eat as parents are living in poverty as produced yesterday by the national education survey,foodbanks being used by 10s of thousands no one able to afford a house rents through the roof,wages are pathetic..Underfunding of schools,hospitals community centres all shut down and hospitals being shut down...The list is huge,people are happy and satisfied what a load of bollox..
Report sageform April 15, 2019 8:19 AM BST
But the countries in the EU like France, Spain, Italy and Greece with left leaning Governments are paragons of virtue enjoying huge public support.
Report anxious April 15, 2019 9:06 AM BST
The Spiv experiment over the last 40 years has divided and destroyed this country , all done with planning and malice not by accident
Report politicspunter April 15, 2019 9:38 AM BST

Apr 15, 2019 -- 9:19AM, sageform wrote:


But the countries in the EU like France, Spain, Italy and Greece with left leaning Governments are paragons of virtue enjoying huge public support.


????

Report enpassant April 15, 2019 11:50 AM BST

Apr 15, 2019 -- 9:19AM, sageform wrote:


But the countries in the EU like France, Spain, Italy and Greece with left leaning Governments are paragons of virtue enjoying huge public support.


Lol j.... wept

Report treetop April 15, 2019 7:32 PM BST
I am with you anx, the last 40 years under the EU mafia has divided us and had a massive impact ! Some of you need a wake up call to get out of your comfy middle class anguish classes and get a life.
Report n88uk April 16, 2019 1:19 AM BST
The polls surely are giving even less incentive for Corbyn to do a deal with May. Why exactly will he throw them any bone when it's clear as day the Tories are disintegrating at the polls.
Report enpassant April 16, 2019 2:10 AM BST

Apr 16, 2019 -- 2:19AM, n88uk wrote:


The polls surely are giving even less incentive for Corbyn to do a deal with May. Why exactly will he throw them any bone when it's clear as day the Tories are disintegrating at the polls.


Precisely. Some have posted that Corbyn needed to 'do something'. Time has shown that waiting for the tory implosion was the simplest and best way. JC4M!

Report sageform April 16, 2019 8:52 AM BST
Best way to get elected and the best way to destroy the UK economy.
Report enpassant April 16, 2019 9:42 AM BST
How exactly ?
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