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politicspunter
20 Feb 19 14:15
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Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
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https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Newport+West

Surely the tiggers are going to have to show their hand in this battle?

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Replies: 367
By:
jed.davison
When: 20 Feb 19 14:17
To do that, one of them would need to abandon their salary, pension and so forth to resign their current seat and fight this one.

Can you see that happening, among these principled people?
By:
politicspunter
When: 20 Feb 19 14:18
Nothing to stop them putting up a non-mp candidate.
By:
jed.davison
When: 20 Feb 19 14:19
Of course not pp but you would have thought one of them would have the balls to see at the first opportunity if there were any support for them among the voting public.
By:
politicspunter
When: 20 Feb 19 14:23
I would be surprised if they didn't put up a candidate and of course not one of the current group in Westminster.  It reminds me of the Roy Jenkins Glasgow Hillhead by election, link here...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Glasgow_Hillhead_by-election
By:
politicspunter
When: 20 Feb 19 14:24
Tony Blair anyone?
By:
jed.davison
When: 20 Feb 19 14:27
Very popular in Wales, I expect.
By:
1st time poster
When: 20 Feb 19 14:42
we can rest assured it wont be a person with a colour of tinge Laugh
By:
anxious
When: 20 Feb 19 16:57
Paul Flynn RIP a good MP for Newport
By:
politicspunter
When: 20 Feb 19 18:03
A very popular man from all accounts.
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 11:56
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

I don't have an accurate vote breakdown for the constituency but Newport overall voted 56-44 to leave in the EU referendum. Paul Flynn (Labour) held this seat with a vote percentage v the Conservatives of..

2017 52-39

2015 41-32

2010 41-32

So a relatively consistent lead. However, this time it's clearly going to be trickier. No incumbency factor in a leave voting constituency. The Labour candidate Ruth Jones is a trade unionist v Matthew Evans, local conservative councillor. In normal circumstances it would be a straight fight, with Labour clear favourite, but times just now are anything but normal.
By:
sageform
When: 24 Feb 19 14:10
Not a fertile area for Plaid being close to England and in the south. In the present atmosphere anything could happen.
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 14:15
Yes, so far in the "others" is a group that wants to abolish the Welsh Parliament who could easily get 2-3%. Who knows what libDem/Tigger arrangement could be lurking.
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 14:16
Oh, and any leakage to Plaid is likely to come from Labour.
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 17:26
Ladbrokes went 1/7 Labour and 5/1 Conservatives before pulling it quickly through the week when the tiggers arrived.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 24 Feb 19 17:40
Was sure i saw 1/4
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 17:43
Betway are going 2/7 Labour, 7/2 tories, 14/1 tiggers.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 24 Feb 19 17:50
If labour lose that corbyn may as well resign,it;s the first test going by tiggers figures tories should have a great chance with labour losing votes to them this will be a test how much they are leaving corbyn..
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 18:01
I agree that the tories have got a real chance of winning this. Let's suppose the tiggers put up a decent candidate, that will hurt Labour more than the tories. Add in a good Plaid candidate who could also damage the Labour vote and we have got a real close battle. 7/2 Tories could look huge if things start dropping for them on the candidates list.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 24 Feb 19 18:10
Must be a chace that tiggers wont bother putting up candidate as well,so you need that as a definite.
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 18:14
Agreed, no tigger helps Labour dramatically. Still doesn't mean it's a sure thing for them though.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 24 Feb 19 18:17
And a UKIP candidate and a candidate running for banning welsh assembley,wouldn't expect anything other than those votes going from torys to them so probably a posituve for labour there..
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 18:21
Yes, but will UKIP put up a candidate if they think the tories can win this?
By:
thegiggilo
When: 24 Feb 19 18:26
Can't see why not a leave constituency,don't think ukip are trying to do the torys any favours now..looks like this welsh assembley vote would taje a few % off the torys as well..
By:
politicspunter
When: 24 Feb 19 18:30
We musn't forget the LibDems of course, by election remain supporting specialist campaigners who, on recent history have no chance here but got 16% of the vote regularly up until 2015 when their vote collapsed nationwide.
By:
politicspunter
When: 25 Feb 19 11:52
Had a good look at this by election this morning and on current polls I have it as....

Labour 36%
Conservative 36%
LibDem 10%
UKIP 5%
Plaid Cymru 4%
Green 3%
Others 6%

I will have another guesstimate at it if/when the tiggers nominate a candidate.
By:
politicspunter
When: 25 Feb 19 11:57
There is also a fair chance that independent candidates campaigning on local issues will influence the vote.
By:
Foinavon
When: 25 Feb 19 13:06
Most voters are a tribal lot and take scant interest in day to day politics.
I won't be betting on any change here.
By:
politicspunter
When: 28 Feb 19 13:11
This is going to be on 4th April. Ladbrokes go 1.17 Labour, 5.0 Conservatives.  Somehow I don't think they will have much trouble counting the bets on Labour.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 28 Feb 19 13:27
Knives will be out for corbyn if they lost this seat in a mid term by election against worst pm and government in history,surely would be unheard of a safe seat like this being lost to the party in givernment,even if they scrape it would be a bad result..
By:
thegiggilo
When: 28 Feb 19 13:27
Knives will be out for corbyn if they lost this seat in a mid term by election against worst pm and government in history,surely would be unheard of a safe seat like this being lost to the party in givernment,even if they scrape it would be a bad result..
By:
politicspunter
When: 28 Feb 19 13:31
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Copeland_by-election

I am reminded of this previous Labour disaster.
By:
enpassant
When: 28 Feb 19 13:34
Who will be after him that already are not ?
The membership are behind him the PLP in the main are not. The desire of the membership is to rid the party of the blairites not Corbyn. I would be interested to hear a reasoned point of view from anyone that disagreed with this.
By:
politicspunter
When: 28 Feb 19 13:38
Reasoned points of view are few and far between in by elections. Turnout is lower and folks votes are driven by current news items.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 28 Feb 19 13:41
Would only be the second won by a government in power for 35 years...
By:
enpassant
When: 28 Feb 19 13:42
thegig was referring to internal forces inside the Labour party would turn against Corbyn ( imo that would simply not happen) I believe and that is what I questioned not the question of the by-election itself.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 28 Feb 19 13:52
You'd be surprised who in their right minds wants to see labour lose another election especially if it can be prevented by changing the leader if someone as bland as kier starmer was leader now he'd be winning that's how crazy it is.I out up that article on brexit last night,if cotrbyn hadn't been coerced into going for the refrendum the election wouldv'e bee a walkover,labour just don't seem to be o  the pulse of anything,the enemys were saying they would lose seats in working class areas,they knew this garbage but the front bench didn't and the media knew..It;'s been proven,how could they be so wrong about everything was blatenty obvious that voting for a referendum is only way laboutr can win an election,yet by pure luck really if you think this antesemetism,pro remain issue hadn't arisen would still be in same position..it's unbelievable.
By:
enpassant
When: 28 Feb 19 14:04
You have spent a lot of time and a lot of posts saying Corbyn should/had to/must 'do something' and now you say he if he 'wasn't coerced into going for the referendum the election would have been a walkover' !

The leadership is decided by the membership and the vast majority of the membership love Corbyn. It is that simple really- he would have to resign for there to be a change of leader.
By:
enpassant
When: 28 Feb 19 14:12

Feb 28, 2019 -- 7:38AM, politicspunter wrote:


Reasoned points of view are few and far between in by elections. Turnout is lower and folks votes are driven by current news items.


No by-election there for a long time and this will be very interesting if nothing else. There seemed to be a decline in Flynn's majority over time but like so many Labour MP's found to their benefit, under Corbyn, their majorities went up. So while Labour have held it for some time it would surely have been a targeted seat for the Tories as the numbers were heading in their direction prior to 2017.
So it will be very informative on a number of counts (no pun intended).

By:
thegiggilo
When: 28 Feb 19 14:18
The ukip vote went back to labour around 11% lost by ukip,1.17 the way the polls stand looks ridiculously short the result will be a lot shorter than those prices reflect that's for sure..
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