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cheese
18 Feb 19 14:47
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Mar 01
| Topic/replies: 2,457 | Blogger: cheese's blog
After the labour split the odds shifted a bit but not that much. The papers are reporting that even a tiny split would destroy Labour's chances with up to 200 seats going to the Tories.
There are some assumptions in that but it basically seems impossible for Labour to win now.

The only thing I can think of is that their might be a tory split also....but Tories tend to be more loyal judging from the numerous backbench rebellions that fail to materialize. They've
got a bit more ballsy of late but the numbers involved in a potential split don't seem to be comparable to Labour's even if it does happen.

I'm curious about what Labour backers are thinking at this stage. There's a lot of institutional money there so it can't be all partisanship.

(btw please keep comments about the politics of this to other threads, I'd prefer if this were kept on the analytical level).
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Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 3:16 PM GMT
What papers?
Report n88uk February 18, 2019 3:44 PM GMT
200 seats ffs. Who claimed that?
Report thegiggilo February 18, 2019 4:05 PM GMT
I very much doubt you will find anyone betting labour to win the next election..
Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 4:07 PM GMT
Depends on the odds really.
Report thegiggilo February 18, 2019 4:13 PM GMT
Have done my tory overall majority bet again,fingers crossed it doesn't happen..torys will be 3s on by the time next election comes round maybe shorter the way things are going currently..
Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 4:16 PM GMT
Now I am going to try not to go on about it but do you not think that you would have learned by this time?
Report thegiggilo February 18, 2019 4:36 PM GMT
Its not a bet to win money,its a bet to ease the suffering of a tory win although in all honesty won't be much of a saving graceSad,corbyn really needs to pyull some rabbits out now the only saving grace as i've said all along is that whoever fronts the tories is useless and that is probably the only posituve
Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 4:38 PM GMT
I wouldn't stake too much just now, things can change very quickly in this game, look at today for example!
Report 1st time poster February 18, 2019 4:43 PM GMT
200 seats must be reading the same 2017 paper as mrs may,was wrong then as well
Report cheese February 18, 2019 4:45 PM GMT
The 200 seats figure is an estimate based on this article in a scenario where a new party picks up 25% of Labour's vote:

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/news-opinion/what-would-happen-polls-labour-11544341

Note that even if they pick up a much smaller fraction of the vote Labour's chances of being largest single party fall to virtually zero.
Report cheese February 18, 2019 4:46 PM GMT
I very much doubt you will find anyone betting labour to win the next election..

If that were true then Labour would be at 1000 to 1 to win. There are obviously still people who believe Labour have a chance.
Report jed.davison February 18, 2019 4:48 PM GMT
There are still people who believe in Father Christmas
Report thegiggilo February 18, 2019 4:53 PM GMT
How many people do you know have backed the labour party to win the next general election,non on here so far no one will be taking current odds on labour to win,you;d have to be stupid..
Report 1st time poster February 18, 2019 4:54 PM GMT
portillio theory backed up by angela smith today was people voted labour because they thought they couldn't win,same might apply again now labour and vote might hold up
been a brave loser with others to blame,right up jezza,s street
Report aaronh February 18, 2019 5:03 PM GMT

Feb 18, 2019 -- 4:45PM, cheese wrote:


The 200 seats figure is an estimate based on this article in a scenario where a new party picks up 25% of Labour's vote:https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/news-opinion/what-would-happen-polls... that even if they pick up a much smaller fraction of the vote Labour's chances of being largest single party fall to virtually zero.


ByDavid Ottewell
17:13, 29 JUN 2016

Plain

Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 5:04 PM GMT

Feb 18, 2019 -- 4:53PM, thegiggilo wrote:


How many people do you know have backed the labour party to win the next general election,non on here so far no one will be taking current odds on labour to win,you;d have to be stupid..


Now, to be fair, you lost £17k backing Conservative to win an overall majority at prices up to 1/9 and said how could anyone be so stupid as to back against that.

Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 5:08 PM GMT

Feb 18, 2019 -- 4:45PM, cheese wrote:


The 200 seats figure is an estimate based on this article in a scenario where a new party picks up 25% of Labour's vote:https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/news-opinion/what-would-happen-polls... that even if they pick up a much smaller fraction of the vote Labour's chances of being largest single party fall to virtually zero.


The teesside gazette isn't one of the top political analysis newspapers I don't believe.

Report thegiggilo February 18, 2019 5:14 PM GMT
My bets are irrelevant on politics i'm betting the torys regardless,as i have told you maybe 20 times i bet them because i want labour to win like i've done in next election,if anyine can make a good arguement that labour are value at 11/10 to win the next election would love to here it..who in their right minds would be betting that..you coul be looking at 5/1 in 6 months vcertainly won't be shorter than 11/10 thats for sure.
Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 5:16 PM GMT

Feb 18, 2019 -- 5:14PM, thegiggilo wrote:


My bets are irrelevant on politics i'm betting the torys regardless,as i have told you maybe 20 times i bet them because i want labour to win like i've done in next election,if anyine can make a good arguement that labour are value at 11/10 to win the next election would love to here it..who in their right minds would be betting that..you coul be looking at 5/1 in 6 months vcertainly won't be shorter than 11/10 thats for sure.


Why do you think that? Six months is a hell of a long time away.

Report thegiggilo February 18, 2019 5:22 PM GMT
I just can't see any scenario where labour can shorten,unbelievably short as it is what circumstances would sghorten them up,they have the anti semitism hanging over them,the split party thing thats another seven seats that hey have potentially lost corbyns polling at 16% popularity with voters lowest ever..We've got the Venezuela stuff hyped up,then question time bias the list is endless and potential for getting far worse yet,the only saving grace could be who leads the tories..
Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 5:31 PM GMT
Just had a look at the best latest prices for most seats next election...

1.87 Tory

2.38 Labour
Report n88uk February 18, 2019 6:24 PM GMT
Nearly impossible to imagine an environment where Labour are 5/1 in 6 months, only if they totally implode from within will that be the case.
Report Dr Crippen February 18, 2019 6:26 PM GMT
portillio theory backed up by angela smith today was people voted labour because they thought they couldn't win

I agree with that, people wanted to show their disapproval at parts of the Tories' manifesto, not thinking that if could let in the disgusting Labour. And it backfired on them.
Report politicspunter February 18, 2019 6:28 PM GMT
I can't think why anyone would vote for a party if they are convinced they can't win. What would be the point? You would be better not voting at all.
Report pan07 February 18, 2019 6:32 PM GMT
my reply to that crippen is thousands like me didn't vote for the last 20 years because of a corrupt tory lite war mongering,racialist party
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