Feb 8, 2019 -- 5:50PM, n88uk wrote:
Yes which is a terrible result from Corbyn's pov. A diff Labour leader and it would be polling very different.
General elections always have a core Labour and Conservative vote, roughly 30% or a bit higher. These folks will never vote for anyone else, irrespective of who is party leader. Elections are decided by floating voters, new voters, folks that don't normally vote and folks that always voted but have passed away.
Feb 9, 2019 -- 8:03AM, impossible123 wrote:
God help us (the country) if a major political Party would have to rely on the young to win a General Election, why? Some of these (young citizens) were too lazy or care to get-off their butts to vote. And how many made their way to The EU to work or further their careers or education; they did not want the jobs some other EU citizens did here (agriculturally). All they had been renowned for was getting sloshed on cheap booze and holidays abroad; they would be more concerned about the possible inconvenience that could arise from Brexit', and delivery of their takeaways and car washes.Hopefully, 'Brexit' will give them a kick-up their butts as this is long overdue, and required.
Feb 9, 2019 -- 2:25AM, enpassant wrote:
Imo brexit is the ONLY thing keeping this government in power. They actually need this debacle to continue. Without it voters would vote on the dire straights the country is in and not on who is more likely to give them what they want in terms of the EU. The point pp makes is a good one. Since the young vote more in favour of Corbyn than than the Tory party it would be reasonable to assume he has picked up (and will continue to do so) more new voters than the tories. Corbyn proved he is a capable campaigner. I cannot see any of the potential tory leader candidates appealing to a wide base of voters. With the media bias trying to tell people that Corbyn can't win, that Labour are behind in the polls, the Corbyn is unelectable it would be easy to think voting Labour would be of little use. Only all of that media slant was there before- it didn't work. So again the assessment pp makes, that it would be too close to call is very sensible shout.
The idea Brexit is the only thing keeping this government in power is farcical to me, at least for the reasons you cite (as arguably Corbyn's position is helping them not weaken further).
Brexit has weakened the government massively. You've got a massively divided party which as yet as not come up with any solution. They are currently pissing off remainers and leavers alike, pretty much no-one thinks they're doing a good job with Brexit. All the votes they gained for offering the referendum in the first place will be go back to UKIP/new Farage party as those types want a hard Brexit. They will be haemorrhaging votes all over the place, whether Labour are the beneficiaries atm is another thing due to Corbyn's stance.
Feb 9, 2019 -- 10:06AM, politicspunter wrote:
The next general election policy battles will be the same as usual, the economy, NHS, education etc.
See, the thing is I actually agree with what you are saying here. But the economy and NHS will get linked back to Brexit. However the economy is doing is going to be written as a consequence of Brexit.
Feb 11, 2019 -- 6:17AM, yajyaj wrote:
Possibly, I will judge come the time, however I am hoping alternatives to UKIP to be available
What sort of alternative do you mean? You could try the EDL.
Feb 11, 2019 -- 12:58AM, politicspunter wrote:
No matter when the next general election is or how the economy is doing you will still get some folks who will say it is really good/bad and the sole reason is brexit.No one is going to flock to UKIP or similar party once we leave the EU.
It won't be UKIP though. Hyothetically say the economy is tanking post-Brexit, you'd expect votes to flock to Labour. This is only theoretically because with Corbyn not necessarily offering much better it won't necessarily go exactly like this, but it will cost Conservative votes.
The UKIP gain would be in the event that either Brexit doesn't happen or the Brexit that doesn't happen doesn't fit what people wanted. I agree it won't be so much a flock, as I said it likely wouldn't leaning to gain them actual seats. The sorta numbers they had in 2015 you'd likely see those flock back to UKIP/Farage's new party, however of course this isn't likely to really lead to a lot as even though it's quite a lot of votes it doesn't tend to lead to actual seats in the UK system.