Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
InsiderTrader
11 Dec 18 16:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 85,197 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
Appears to be the case.

She will find out on her return from Europe.
Pause Switch to Standard View 48 Letters In
Show More
Loading...
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 8:51 AM GMT
Threatening Brexit.

What a disgrace.

Resign now and then there is time.
Report salmon spray December 12, 2018 9:01 AM GMT
Thatcher won the vote in 1990 but not by enough. I have a feeling history will repeat itself.
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 9:04 AM GMT
1.34 she wins the vote.
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 9:08 AM GMT
1.37 win, 3.5 lose. My gut feeling is that she will win it but if say 100+ vote against her, she will be persuaded to step aside.
Report thegiggilo December 12, 2018 9:10 AM GMT
Can i get the popcorn out now ffs,been waiting for the carnage for a week!!!Excited
Report salmon spray December 12, 2018 9:12 AM GMT
There's a threshold she has to reach to be safe from a 2nd round. Thatcher beat Heseltine but didn't reach the threshold. What that is is proving beyond my googling skills at the moment. Anyone know ?
Report jollyswagman December 12, 2018 9:12 AM GMT
this vote she just has to win by one vote, obviously that would leave her extremely damaged.
Report cyclops December 12, 2018 9:13 AM GMT
Paralysis if she wins. Anarchy if she loses.

Brexit going well.
Report differentdrum December 12, 2018 9:19 AM GMT
She is never going to resign. She is the best hanger-on in history. 

She might be completely deluded as to her own merit but her speech hit the right note. Basically, it is me or something worse. Terrible situation to be voting for the lesser of two evils.

As regards Brexit the end date should have been extended the moment the vote date was postponed. Taking a month out of process (for nothing other than self interest) was just a tactic to try and force Parliament to eventually accept her deal.

She mentions doing what the people want. How does she know for sure? It is surely past tense. The only way to know that for sure is the second vote.
Report salmon spray December 12, 2018 9:19 AM GMT
I think jollswagman must be correct. Thatcher v Heseltine was a leadership contest which this isn't. Having said that I agree that if she wins by a small margin it would be difficult for her to continue,though given her stubbornness not impossible.
Report jollyswagman December 12, 2018 9:23 AM GMT
no one else's name on the ballot mr spray, sir graham brady explained it on the bbc.

i said elsewhere, i hope she wins 52% v 48% and the erg respect the will of the people Laugh
Report sageform December 12, 2018 9:34 AM GMT
Second best hanger on in history. Gordon Brown will always be No 1. Poor chap had only been (unelected) PM for a few months and the public said no thanks but he clung on for days.
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 9:35 AM GMT

Dec 12, 2018 -- 3:19AM, salmon spray wrote:


I think jollswagman must be correct. Thatcher v Heseltine was a leadership contest which this isn't. Having said that I agree that if she wins by a small margin it would be difficult for her to continue,though given her stubbornness not impossible.


The leadership rules changed under Hagues reign. If she wins tonight, she can stay on and be unchallenged for at least one year. If she loses , she steps down and cannot enter the leadership election.

Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 9:37 AM GMT
Now 1.52 to win, 2.88 to lose. Big move.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 9:39 AM GMT
people must listen to what she said outside no 10

she the tory party are prepared to pull delay article 50 to sort out the tory party,but even in their own words not prepared to dealy article 50 to stop the country falling off a catastrophic cliff edge,staggering in its selfishness
Report salmon spray December 12, 2018 9:46 AM GMT
Good point 1st timer.
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 9:48 AM GMT
I find her increasingly selfish, arrogant and desperate.
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 10:01 AM GMT
politicspunter
12 Dec 18 09:37
Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 1,489 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Now 1.52 to win, 2.88 to lose. Big move.

^

Back into 1.31/1.32
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 10:02 AM GMT
Now it's 1.29 to win, 4.4 to lose !
Report anxious December 12, 2018 10:11 AM GMT
The Spivs as ever waffle on about being wonderful patriots and doing the best for the country and yet time and time again this is shown to be a myth , backstabbing and infighting is their stock and trade , the only people they care about are themselves and defending their money and power
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 10:15 AM GMT
Now strictly she should win by 268-48 based on who have come out in support of her so far. However, it's a secret ballot so she won't win by anything remotely near that.
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 10:17 AM GMT
anxious
12 Dec 18 10:11
Joined: 14 May 15
| Topic/replies: 25,887 | Blogger: anxious's blog
The Spivs as ever waffle on about being wonderful patriots and doing the best for the country and yet time and time again this is shown to be a myth , backstabbing and infighting is their stock and trade , the only people they care about are themselves and defending their money and power

^

Not exclusive to the Tories.

Labour the same trying to oust Corbyn who also refused to resign.

May and Corbyn are the worst 'leaders' ever seen.
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 10:18 AM GMT
Chuka on TV again going on about money and being richer.

All he seems to worry about is money.
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 12, 2018 10:19 AM GMT
to be fair, that's an absolutely terrible comparison.
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 10:20 AM GMT
I think we might as well scrap the vote ffs

Already its obvious she survives it Cry

She can't get any f***** to vote for her lousy deal but they all vote in favour for her here Laugh

What a joke
Report anxious December 12, 2018 10:21 AM GMT
IT surely your not trying to compare the tories to Labour who very rarely knife in the back the their leaders , yes recently the Blairites tried to get rid of Jeremy and failed miserably, dont ever lecture us about the Spivs being wonderful Patriots
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 10:22 AM GMT
All as bad as each other anxious.

Never trust an MP.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 10:32 AM GMT
I,ll say it again but all these people like Gaulke on tv this morning banging on about democrtacy is absolutely laugable,next time thery say it why doesnmt the interview ask this question

given the chance,given a free vote not hiding behind party rules this country would probably have

a different tory leader
a different labour leader
a labour government of some sort
a majority for remain
but hey thats democracy uk style
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 10:35 AM GMT
Why would they have a different labour leader if they were given a free vote? They already have, twice.
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 10:37 AM GMT
Anyway, I reckon at least 100 will vote against her tonight.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 10:38 AM GMT
takes 20 mins for 650 mps to go through the lobby on a daily basis and return a result, it takes 315 tory mp,s 3 hrs to complete the same process , nuff sed Laugh
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 10:41 AM GMT
I think they can just amble in and vote any time during the two hours.
Report kevinglass December 12, 2018 10:42 AM GMT
Secret Ballot
Report anxious December 12, 2018 10:43 AM GMT
I think Chairman May will win the vote tonight , the only issue is how many will it take for her to wounded fatally 140 maybe ?
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 10:46 AM GMT
She'll see any type of margin in her favour as a victory

Even if its 51-49 in favour she'll be walking out to I love to boogie
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 10:46 AM GMT
most torys going on tv hopping she wins a vote to continue a policy she no,s she cant get through the commons even less so when/if the rebels lose a no confidence vote, its complete and utter madness

had to laugh what someone said on tv last night we,re already a laughing stock in the EU TREASON DRAGGING HER ARRIS AROUND THE eu BEGGING FOR SOMETHING, some tories want a caretaker PM, imagine sending the caretaker to brussels to negotiate the most important deal in uk history LaughLaugh,  the EU would rate us below them wongoolians from belgum LaughLaugh,
think the UNDERTAKER would be more appropriate
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 10:48 AM GMT
what does she win,the right to be humiliated by the EU and the commons on a daily basis,whats 2nd prize
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 10:49 AM GMT
I think it'll be 60-40 in her favour

Which should be enough of a sign to her that should she resign

But like I say she'll carry on regardless
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 11:20 AM GMT
May now into 1.23 to win the vote. 5.1 to lose
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 11:36 AM GMT
She's already won the vote

No point in having it now imo

Which just means its no brexit full stop
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 11:37 AM GMT
Don't suppose she's going to ask for this vote to be called off though lol

Mind boggles, there's no way she's got the support of her party now ffs
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 11:51 AM GMT
I think there will be a voting threshold where she will be told to depart if it's not met.
Report jed.davison December 12, 2018 11:55 AM GMT
She will be defeated, however Tory Remain MPs feel about the other wing of their Party, they care more for public opinion and they know the Tories are dead for at least a generation if her sell-out is enacted.
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 12:03 PM GMT
She won't be defeated.
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 12, 2018 12:24 PM GMT
On the topic of democracy, an important point is that while we're approaching our most critical point in my lifetime at least we face the prospect of being led by someone chosen by a few thousand unaccountable people.

Forget, the electorate choosing it'll be done by backroom deals, trade offs and we'll end up with a PM that 99.99999% of us didn't and couldn't have chosen.

It'd be a dark day indeed. I'm sure the fans of democracy are as aghast as I am.
Report jed.davison December 12, 2018 12:28 PM GMT
It is indeed unsatisfactory, but it's not unprecedented so hardly worth banging on like it were.
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 12, 2018 12:34 PM GMT
Think this guy hits the nail on the head, so worth sharing:

If Theresa May falls tonight, the leadership contest that follows will be one of the most important elections in British history. It will also be one of the least democratic. We are about to discover how much damage the two main parties have done to our democracy.

At a critical moment in British history, the UK will have its first directly elected prime minister. They will be placed in Number Ten, not by Parliament, not by the electorate, but by Conservative party members: a privileged class of voters who have paid for the privilege.

Not since the days of the rotten boroughs have a few thousand people held such extraordinary, undemocratic power. Unlike MPs, activists are not answerable to a wider public. We don't know who they are. They vote in secret. We cannot hold them to account for their choices.

That leadership election will not be a personality contest: it will be fought on fundamental questions of policy. Do we leave with no deal? Do we suspend Article 50? Do we have a second referendum? It will set the direction of government for as long as the govt is in power.

In the name of "internal democracy" our parties have done something deeply *undemocratic*. They have handed over decisions that are fundamental to our democracy to a group of people who stand outside it: who are not responsible to the public for choices that shape their lives.

The combined membership of the four biggest parties makes up less than 2% of the electorate. Yet they exert a gravitational pull on our entire political system that is grotesquely disproportionate to their numbers, and which is distorting the whole nature of our public debate.

Nick Clegg recently urged voters who want a say on Brexit to join Labour or the Tories: a sobering admission, by a Lib Dem, that the power to bring about change now lies outside Parliament: not among the public as a whole, but in the pay-for-access democracies of the Big Two.

Leave.EU  has been acting on this advice, mobilising its supporters to take over constituency Tory parties ahead of a leadership contest. It recognises that highly organised minorities can now take control of Downing Street itself.

In short: we may soon have to sit & watch while a tiny group of people, over whom we have no democratic control, set the course of Brexit. By handing extravagant powers to their members, our parties have done serious damage to our democracy. We are about to pay the price.
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 12:45 PM GMT
1.14 she win now. Plain
Report salmon spray December 12, 2018 12:58 PM GMT
Fairly certain to win imo,but how many does she need to win by to retain any credibility ?
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 1:04 PM GMT
1- according to Theresa probably.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 1:06 PM GMT
ditch me get
get ,long leadership battle
uncvertantity
delayed article 50
delayed brexit
no brexit
get GE
GET corbyn

has this woman ever said anything positive in her life, if youve got nothing positive to say, no vision,what are you doing leading a party
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 1:16 PM GMT
downing street spinning the line the vote is not about the next election but for today hinting she wont lewad the party into the next election,

if she cant get a deal through cabinet, dr fox says without changes to backstop it wont
without support of the dup

when her deal goes down opposition puts no confidence vote in


the next election could be within days,weeks,months
Report donny osmond December 12, 2018 2:05 PM GMT
theresa would take a tie and a revote

does she get a vote?
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 2:08 PM GMT
If the deal does not go through the DUP will remain voting with the Tories.

So how does a vote of no confidence against the government get through?

The Tory MPs will not vote for a Corbyn government whoever is their leader is.

If Labour wanted to get rid of the government they should vote for her deal.

Then have a vote of no confidence with the DUP withdrawing support for the government.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 2:11 PM GMT
what an absolute room of vipers and dogs that cabinet is, liam fox trying to tell the bbc the cabinet didn't pass off mays deal and wouldn't put it back to the commons if the backstop wasn't altered, did he explain that to honourable mp,s who resigned because they were told that was the deal and it wasn't up for negotiation, an ak 47 wouldn't be enough to take out the scroats in that cabinet, look at me,me,me,me,me,me
Report sageform December 12, 2018 2:11 PM GMT
PP are you saying that anyone who can afford to pay for Conservative membership is rich and privileged but those who join Labour and Lib Dems are not? The membership fee will be similar but many Union members don't realise how much of their union dues go to Labour. The main reason that Corbyn got chosen to be Labour leader was the number of new members they managed to sign up.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 2:14 PM GMT
written the same elsewhere insider,interesting point,but they might hope to pick up a few extreme brexiteers and remainers of the torys, dup no good to labour long term as allies
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 12, 2018 2:17 PM GMT
I think you should read the first line sage.


Don't necessarily agree with the "privileged" stereotype. Don't know the breakdown of members to be honest. However, fact remains we could be about to be guided through brexit by someone voted for by a small number of people.

Stinks to be honest.
Report sageform December 12, 2018 2:24 PM GMT
I assumed you had posted it because you agreed with it. Sorry if you don't. Plenty of people in country areas who would vote Conservative if they were down to the last penny. They will never vote Labour after Blair banned hunting. On the other side plenty of people from industrial heartlands who would rather shoot themselves than vote Tory. That is the reality of the great divide.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 2:30 PM GMT
times are changing you don't understand the hatred towards the Islington liberal elite labour party in northern industrial towns,they might not vote tory but labour would be foolish to bank on their support especially if they veer away from delivering a true Brexit, it was sunderland hard working ex shipbuilding town that started this whole ball rolling
Report donny osmond December 12, 2018 2:30 PM GMT
it

corbyn get get support from rees mogg and co who need an election to get their hard breakfast
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 2:35 PM GMT
Rees Mogg would not vote to force a GE, especially if T May is still leader.
Report donny osmond December 12, 2018 3:26 PM GMT
he says he has no faith in her, wants her gone

and knows she will not fight another election
Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2018 3:42 PM GMT
She now has the numbers who support her.

Unbelievable.
Report donny osmond December 12, 2018 3:58 PM GMT
she may have, but they would say that , wouldnt they?

secret ballot, ...
Report tanglefoot December 12, 2018 4:00 PM GMT
Mrs May has the Samson syndrome, prepared to ruin the country and the Conservative party to stay in power
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 4:05 PM GMT
theres some serious madness or mp,s are the thickest loons in town, remainers, loyalists are going to vote for may so she can go and find solutions to get the ERG  onside to vote for a deal,LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report tanglefoot December 12, 2018 4:26 PM GMT
Tory remainers will vote for May,and therefor she should win the vote, but it will destroy the party and let in Corbin, as she stubbornly ploughs on with her mad brexit agreement
Report differentdrum December 12, 2018 5:57 PM GMT
I'll be going by 2022 and that's supposed to be a vote winner? I think there is a warped comedian in there somewhere.

If it wasn't for the alternatives then she would be lucky to get 50 votes tonight. It is just about getting a result that keeps the Tories in power. They are not voting for her.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2018 6:20 PM GMT
SHE ALSO SAID she would/might stand in a snap GE
WHICH of course by insisting on throwing the dup under the bus,she can engineer
Report nellie1970 December 12, 2018 6:38 PM GMT
we need some of the chiefs to get people woken up to what the fuuk is going on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamKl-su8PE
Report salmon spray December 12, 2018 6:38 PM GMT
I wouldn't fancy the bus against Arlene.
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 7:05 PM GMT
According to MPs voting indications, so far it looks like 210 for Theresa, 82 against and 25 undecided or won't voice a preference. Taking a chunk of salt I would guesstimate that the final tally will be 100+ for non Theresas.
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
That's about 62% in her favour then

Not really enough to put any real dent in her

It needs to be a 55-45 split and then Corbyn can easily call a vote of no confidence in the government
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
That's about 62% in her favour then

Not really enough to put any real dent in her

It needs to be a 55-45 split and then Corbyn can easily call a vote of no confidence in the government
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
That's about 62% in her favour then

Not really enough to put any real dent in her

It needs to be a 55-45 split and then Corbyn can easily call a vote of no confidence in the government
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
That's about 62% in her favour then

Not really enough to put any real dent in her

It needs to be a 55-45 split and then Corbyn can easily call a vote of no confidence in the government
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
That's about 62% in her favour then

Not really enough to put any real dent in her

It needs to be a 55-45 split and then Corbyn can easily call a vote of no confidence in the government
Report SontaranStratagem December 12, 2018 7:12 PM GMT
Forum losing it again
Report nellie1970 December 12, 2018 7:17 PM GMT
a Russia bot has compromised you SSLaugh
Report thegiggilo December 12, 2018 7:26 PM GMT
Wheres eric strange he's not around...or is he under various usernames.Crazy
Report differentdrum December 12, 2018 8:07 PM GMT
There is no chance of Corbyn getting through a no confidence vote even if May wins by one vote.

No Tory is going to vote with Labour against their own Government.

Corbyn should abandon any misguided idea of an Election and get behind a second vote which would have cross party support. He has been waiting for something that will just not happen. Nothing clever about that stance.

He had a decent General Election but he hasn't been able to build on that and he is now looking like the original insignificant figure at the despatch box.
Report Fatslogger December 12, 2018 8:25 PM GMT
I think Corbyn is more waiting for the Tory circular firing squad. Don’t think a no confidence motion achieves anything other than pushing Labour to backing a second referendum, which Corbyn is at best ambivalent about. I don’t think his tactics are that bad given his objectives, although otherwise I think you’re right, dd and I don’t like his objectives that much either.
Report politicspunter December 12, 2018 9:02 PM GMT
200 for. 117 against.
Report mafeking December 12, 2018 9:03 PM GMT
not a great result for her really. plenty of supposed backers telling porkies in public. MPs lying. there's a surprise
Report Fatslogger December 12, 2018 9:06 PM GMT

Dec 12, 2018 -- 3:03PM, mafeking wrote:


not a great result for her really. plenty of supposed backers telling porkies in public. MPs lying. there's a surprise


Most sophisticated electorate in the world. Also known as most duplicitous.

It’s not a resounding vote of confidence but it’s good enough for her to limp on for now. Doesn’t resolve anything else though and he Brexit position remains untenable.

Report mafeking December 12, 2018 9:09 PM GMT
like they're saying take out the ministers and a large majority of backbenchers have voted against her

thatcher won by 52 and still went. this result only marginally better
Report Fatslogger December 12, 2018 10:54 PM GMT
This is quite a bit more emphatic than Thatcher, although I would hardly call it decisive and May is terribly damaged. I don’t buy the taking out the ministers, PPSs etc. thing though: by definition those will tend to be the loyalists. They’re selected partly for loyalty.
Report Fatslogger December 12, 2018 10:56 PM GMT
Also, Thatcher didn’t win, she just got more votes than Heseltine. The contest didn’t end at that point. That’s why she had to go, as she’d have highly likely lost in the next round.
Report mafeking December 13, 2018 12:10 AM GMT
yes the cabinet queued up to tell she'd have to go as she'd have been massacred in the next round and as is nearly always the case in tory leadership elections they wanted to able to field their own stop heseltine candidates. that's why you end up hopeless compromise candidates like major and may getting elected
Report enpassant December 13, 2018 12:49 AM GMT
The advice to Corbyn is to ask for a vote of no confidence- particularly from the PLP that want to oust him- unsurprisingly (and correctly) he hasn't done so. Why would he when it is doomed to failure and the rancids are shooting themselves in the foot, leg,torso and head and doing a fine job of it.
Even if the 'headbangers' got one of theirs to lead; how would they govern when their own party would consist of 200 MP's that would vote against their vision of brexit ?

"Napoleon Bonaparte: Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake."
Report politicspunter December 14, 2018 1:29 PM GMT
The @Telegraph understands that as many as 12 ministers are among the 117 MPs who voted against Mrs May and are facing retribution from a furious Number 10.
A source says the whips are now “going through the process” to identify ministers who had no confidence in Mrs May.
Report politicspunter December 14, 2018 1:38 PM GMT
Gove, Mordaunt, Leadsom, Javid, Hammond, Fox, Rudd, Grayling, Lidington.

There's nine for starters.
Report 1st time poster December 14, 2018 1:43 PM GMT
TYPICAL TORYS TRING TO ANSWER SOMETHING NO ONE CAN POSSIBLY NO.we should be happy theres a tory that can count to 318
Report enpassant December 14, 2018 1:55 PM GMT
If this were true it would make a mockery of Mogg's claims.
Report Fatslogger December 14, 2018 2:04 PM GMT

Dec 14, 2018 -- 7:55AM, enpassant wrote:


If this were true it would make a mockery of Mogg's claims.


Always seemed likely that a few ministers and other payroll MPs voted against her although JRM waved it away with some rubbish about how he assumed his colleagues were honourable (in the face of a lot of evidence that many of them are not). Either way, she lacks the support of a lot of her party but so would any alternative, to be fair to her.

Report enpassant December 14, 2018 2:04 PM GMT
Though they ought to resign (as he said) but why would they show integrity to each other when they do not show it to anyone else. They truly deserve each other.
Report enpassant December 14, 2018 2:05 PM GMT

Dec 14, 2018 -- 8:04AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Dec 14, 2018 --  1:55PM, enpassant wrote:If this were true it would make a mockery of Mogg's claims.Always seemed likely that a few ministers and other payroll MPs voted against her although JRM waved it away with some rubbish about how he assumed his colleagues were honourable (in the face of a lot of evidence that many of them are not). Either way, she lacks the support of a lot of her party but so would any alternative, to be fair to her.


Agreed.

Report 1st time poster December 14, 2018 2:16 PM GMT
hand on heart you couldn't rule out the possibility that treason ticked the wrong box, Laugh
Report politicspunter December 14, 2018 2:19 PM GMT
She ticked the right box...the no confidence one.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com