Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
politicspunter
26 Nov 18 19:11
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 32,494 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
williamhill have a market on the number of candidates on the first ballot paper for the next conservative party leadership election.

Under 6.5 - 1.53
Over 6.5  - 2.37

Overs is quite tempting. As remainers I could easily see Javid and Rudd standing. Good chance one of them will reach last two on the ballot.  Leavers have many possible candidates including Davis, Raab, Boris, Leadsom, Gove, Mordaunt and Mogg, all of whom have some sort of chance of standing.  Hunt is a decent shout for a centrist candidate. Throw in a few others as dark horses such as Hancock.
Pause Switch to Standard View Willhill next conservative leader
Show More
Loading...
Report politicspunter June 11, 2019 7:30 PM BST
I listened to Rory Stewart's campaign launch today. You know how you can have an enjoyable day at Plumpton watching platers ply their trade to earn their corn? Then one day you are invited to Cheltenham to the Gold Cup meeting and it's simply a different class?

Rory Stewart is different class to the other candidates.
Report MartinK June 11, 2019 9:33 PM BST
Hi politicspunter - lets hope Rory Stewart isn't a case of a top class chaser running in a Turf Sprint!!

You mentioned earlier that "Rory Stewart reckons it's possible he already has seventeen for the next cut off. "
Can you remember where you saw that – I haven't been able to find it anywhere.

I've also been having more on the 5+ ballots, although I'm afraid the machination of Tory infighting could cut the process short. My assumption at the moment is that Boris is booked for one of the final two spots and that the others will be reluctant of relinquish a chance for the second spot and will slog It out.
With 10 on the starters block we're in unknown territory are far as the ballots are concerned which is borne out by the market volume stats – the 5+ taking £5k of the 9k market total, the two favourites taking 1.7k ad 1.0k
Report politicspunter June 11, 2019 9:40 PM BST
Martin,
I think I saw the seventeen rory supporters just after the 1922 committee announced the candidates. I can't remember exactly where but Rory said he had seventeen "if folks vote as they say they will" or something along those lines.
Report politicspunter June 11, 2019 9:50 PM BST
Sorry Martin, had a quick look round but can't find it. I think it was one of the political journos that posted a twitter message.
Report aaronh June 11, 2019 9:56 PM BST
Jack Doyle


@jackwdoyle
Jun 10
More
Outside the 1922 committee Rory Stewart insists he’s already got the 17 MPs he needs to get through the first round, but with the caveat ‘if everyone does what they say they’re going to do’.

^

@jackwdoyle
Associate Editor (Politics) at the Daily Mail
Report politicspunter June 11, 2019 10:04 PM BST
Thanks aaron.
Report aaronh June 11, 2019 10:06 PM BST
@ElectCalculus
  8m8 minutes ago
Here are the vote shares from @ComRes for various leadership candidates converted into seats, as seen in @TelePolitics at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-course-140-sea... … Apologies for merging SNP and Plaid into 'NAT' - SNP win 56 seats in every scenario, Plaid win 3 or 4 seats.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8zxQPQXoAADFwV.png:large
Report n88uk June 11, 2019 10:12 PM BST
Boris 395 seats Laugh
Report politicspunter June 11, 2019 10:19 PM BST
A telegraph commissioned poll for their favourite telegraph columnist.
Report aaronh June 11, 2019 10:55 PM BST
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4h63yc0b65/Internal_181015_Favourability_W.pdf

Boris must have got very popular these last 9 months
Report tobermory June 12, 2019 12:30 AM BST
The inexplicable Leadsom price (9.2) is even weirder than it seems.

Today I read that she still only has 5 supporters but that she 'borrowed' 3 MPs from some other candidate to get over the threshold. Why would another candidate lend her votes Confused So it sounds as if there is a conspiracy to keep her in the field.

By any rational analysis she should be 66/1+
Report donny osmond June 12, 2019 12:52 AM BST
corbyn had to borrow votes to get on the ballot.

if she cant get 10% she falls at first hurdle
Report donny osmond June 12, 2019 12:55 AM BST
5% furst ballot
10% second ballot
Report enpassant June 12, 2019 1:44 AM BST
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1137677656600784902

'326 Politics
@326Pols
·
Jun 10
Updated projection for the Conservative leadership election ballots, showing flows between candidates at each stage, where Jeremy Hunt replaces Michael Gove as the candidate most likely to face Boris Johnson in the final two.'



It had Hunt to be eliminated at the fourth ballot originally.
Report enpassant June 12, 2019 1:46 AM BST
Hunt or Johnson lol - the end is near for the rancids !
Report thegiggilo June 12, 2019 1:53 AM BST
Tory leadership frontrunner Boris Johnson recommended that the UK allow Saudi Arabia to buy British bomb parts expected to be deployed in Yemen, days after an airstrike on a potato factory in the country had killed 14 people in 2016.

Campaigners accused the then foreign secretary of showing a “total disregard” for Yemeni civilians by allowing the sales, revealed for the first time in emails disclosed via a freedom of information request.

A day after the sale was recommended for approval by Johnson in August 2016, a village school in Yemen was hit by another deadly airstrike, prompting further complaints that the UK is complicit in breaches of international humanitarian law.

UK arms controls mean that the foreign secretary has to be consulted on whether the Department for International Trade should licence “precision guided weapons systems and munitions that are likely to be used by the Saudi Royal Air Force in Yemen”.


Campaigners head to court to stop arms sales to Saudi Arabia
Read more
An email dated 12 August 2016 to the Export Control Joint Unit, responsible for licensing UK arms deals, says that Johnson “was content” to advise that the licensing of components for Paveway bombs should go ahead.

A few days earlier, on 9 August, the Saudi-led coalition resumed airstrikes on Sana’a at the end of a ceasefire that had held since April. Reports at the time said that more than half of those killed in the strike were women.

Andrew Smith of Campaign Against Arms Trade accused the Conservative MP of showing a lack of compassion: “For Boris Johnson to approve a missile sale the day after a food factory was destroyed shows the total disregard that he and his colleagues hold for the rights and lives of Yemeni people.”

Advertisement

A day after the approval email was sent, on 13 August, a village school in the Sa’ada province was hit by an airstrike, which killed 10 children and injured 20.

The then cabinet minister has previously defended the arms sales during his time in office, saying in September 2016 that Saudi-led bombing campaign is not “in clear breach” of international humanitarian law.

Previously disclosures show that Johnson also assented to arms sales to Saudi Arabia in November 2016, the month after a funeral was bombed in Sana’a and dozens killed.

The UK is estimated to have licensed the sale of over £4.7bn worth of arms to Saudi Arabia since bombing began in March 2015. The Gulf nation has been the largest buyer of British-made arms for decades.

The correspondence shows that the Foreign Office’s Arms Policy Export Team has a duty to advise whether “there is a clear risk that these exports might be used in a serious violation of international humanitarian law”.

Officials in the export team concluded that “this clear risk test has not been met” in an email dated 10 August.

In another email, dated 27 July, the Export Team declare: “We have increased confidence in the Saudi pre-planned and dynamic targeting processes.”

That was criticised by the academic who originally obtained the emails, following a 20-month battle, Dr Anna Stavrianakis, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Sussex.

The academic said: “Coming days after an attack on a food factory, this information that suggests ‘increased confidence’ in Saudi processes is at odds with events on the ground.”

The court of appeal is deciding on a claim brought by the Campaign Against Arms Trade against the legality of the export of UK arms to Saudi Arabia for use in Yemen. The high court had determined such sales were legal in July 2017, but two judges said that could be challenged in the higher court.

The Saudi-led coalition has been repeatedly accused of bombing indiscriminately during the Yemeni civil war, which is targeting Houthis and allied rebel groups backing the former president of Yemen, the late Ali Abdullah Saleh. Peace talks have led to a partial ceasefire.

Jeremy Hunt, who took over as foreign secretary in July 2018, and another Tory leadership contender, has defended arms sales to Saudi Arabia, arguing that halting them would be “morally bankrupt” because the UK would “surrender our influence..
Report jumper3 June 12, 2019 8:20 AM BST
Like others here, I am struggling to understand why Leadsom is still third in the betting. Is there an expectation that she will pick up votes when others leave the race? The only credible woman in the race? Will she even get beyond the first round of voting? I'd have her as likely as Matt Hancock and even have Sajid Javid aheaed of her.
Report politicspunter June 12, 2019 8:49 AM BST
How on earth does she get past the first ballot? She hasn't had a single public declaration of support from an mp for ages and I reckon she was going round with the begging bowl to register her initial application  which was handed in five minutes before the cut off time. Since then, she has said she would consider another Scottish independence referendum and was brandishing a sign at her campaign launch saying bollockstobercow.
I can see her withdrawing before the vote tomorrow to save embarrassment.
Report jumper3 June 12, 2019 9:35 AM BST
Boris though does seem to be able to attract support across the traditional electoral divide. Similar to Trump in that respect. London voters were happy to have him as Mayor, unless I am very much mistaken. The focus has already shifted to a general election which for Tories only he can win a commanding majority. Sounds to me that the media has promoted that idea as a way to prevent a Corbyn government.
Report sageform June 12, 2019 9:43 AM BST
As a natural tory I can't get excited about any of the candidates. They all have serious flaws. Ian Duncan Smith is head and shoulders ahead of them all but sadly he had his chance against Blair and failed.
Report donny osmond June 12, 2019 10:08 AM BST
if ids is head and shoulders above anybody then its either the most ironic post
ive read in ages or this is a poor quality field.

theres been an awful lot of cash traded on leadsome and this market, but i canr see how
she wins unless a few big hitters take each other out "et tu brute" style.
Report MartinK June 12, 2019 10:48 AM BST
The interesting thing about the 326 Politics analysis is that on the second ballot Javid is only 2  votes away from forcing a fifth ballot (assuming they all stay in thereafter). Current price 2.6 for 4 rounds and 5.2 for 5+ rounds.
Report politicspunter June 12, 2019 10:52 AM BST
The first ballot tomorrow might not be so much about who mps want in but who they want out and accordingly how they may vote in order to achieve their preferred outcome. You could see hard brexiteers voting for McVey or Leadsom even, just to try and get Rory out of the race early before he gains momentum.
Report Floccinaucinihilipilification June 12, 2019 10:55 AM BST
"The inexplicable Leadsom price (9.2) is even weirder than it seems.Today I read that she still only has 5 supporters but that she 'borrowed' 3 MPs from some other candidate to get over the threshold. Why would another candidate lend her votes Confused So it sounds as if there is a conspiracy to keep her in the field.By any rational analysis she should be 66/1+"

If the 2016 Tory Leadership Election is any guide, Leadsom clearly has support amongst her colleagues, certainly more than Gove
Report politicspunter June 12, 2019 10:56 AM BST
But that was in 2016..
Report edy June 12, 2019 11:13 AM BST
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/rory-stewart-tory-leadership-race-odds-prime-minister-candidates-brexit-a8954446.html

Rory Stewart can't help but tell the truth - that's why he has no chance in the Tory leadership race
Report donny osmond June 12, 2019 11:15 AM BST
she didnt really do much since 2016 to carry that vote forward for me.

of course she could be the chosen one , in reserve , in case boris has a mare
in some debates or discloses where the bodies are buried

i shall always remember next portsmouth manager with no logic why 'arry was
such a short price. the markets are usually fairly accurate in these cases
but finding out why, or if, can be a long process

another next manager market lesson was the lack of speed of drifts on previously
well backed candidates, which can be quite a trait on betfair (annoyingly so at times!!!)
Report Angoose June 12, 2019 11:25 AM BST
All he was offering, he said, is compromise. That was how you won, twenty years ago. He quoted the Professor John Curtice, the nation’s leading psephologist, and the closest thing British politics has to a David Attenborough. No one agrees on everything, but almost everyone agrees that Curtice is always right.

“Twenty years ago, politics was a bell shape,” Stewart said Curtice had told him. “Everyone is in the middle. Now it’s a U-shape. Everyone is out on the edges, polarised, and claiming to speak for the people.”

He’s right. Course he is. He’s always right. And Rory Stewart can’t help but tell the truth. That’s why he’s got no chance, and he’ll be gone by Thursday. It’s a shame though. The country did have a brief shot at dignity, but the Conservative Party has other ideas.
Report tobermory June 12, 2019 3:50 PM BST
Having layed Boris earlier I think now he has to be value at anything above 1.5

Has a lot more declarations than I expected by this stage. He just needs to keep those and pick up another 20 or so but final ballot and he is in the final for the members.

And 60 or so MPs have not declared yet, so perhaps he is near 100 on first ballot.

Though maybe those 60 are the Leadsom backers who will suddenly announce themselves Scared
Report politicspunter June 12, 2019 3:52 PM BST
God forbid if 60 Leadsom backers appeared, I would be shaking more than some of the leading contenders if I hadn't had my line or two.
Report unitedbiscuits June 12, 2019 4:25 PM BST
It is difficult for me to separate the market opportunities from the ****how blighting the future prospects of at least two generations of UK citizens but here goes:

Gove is by far the most wily, intelligent candidate and worth a bet @ 18.5. Team Raab were about to provide the detail of Gove's "cocaine shame", prompting Gove's spoiler. Spare no sympathy, it's exactly what Gove has done to opponents. Can he recover? His chance now depends entirely on his patron, Rupert Murdoch. Gove WAS his dog in the fight, but he will desert him if he calculates that he has lost his chance. Yet, by the same token, Murdoch has s**t on Johnson. The most plausible explanation for Johnson cringing away from the '16 leadership contest is that he met with Murdoch and Murdoch told him he would not support him. In many respects, Bojo's Old Etonian background rubs the Dirty Digger up the wrong way but if The Sun swing behind Johnson that would be a clear indication that 1.6 would be a banker bet. Johnson, like Farage, reports in to Farage, which makes him as good as a "homeboy." Until The Sun come out for Johnson, lay, lay, lay away.
I'm not qualified to introduce the other candidates - all of them are eleven shades of brown to a remainer. We have no say, no vote. So much for "Taking back control." When will Leavers smell a rat? When democracy is reduced to the vote of c100k Tory Party members (ave age 72) or when it is reduced to c300 Tory MPs?
Report unitedbiscuits June 12, 2019 4:27 PM BST
Sorry, typo: both Johnson and Farage report to Steve Bannon.
Report enpassant June 12, 2019 4:27 PM BST
The 'D' word lol
Report terry mccann June 12, 2019 5:00 PM BST
We should all know that the next Prime Minister has already been chosen by the elite,the question is who and why?
Report Angoose June 12, 2019 5:01 PM BST
Because he supports 5G Confused
Report terry mccann June 12, 2019 5:04 PM BST
They all do its seemsCry
Report terry mccann June 12, 2019 5:06 PM BST
Hunt seems to me to be saying the right things to the wrong people so could well be man,time will tell
Report aaronh June 12, 2019 5:11 PM BST
How could a strong anti establishment man like yourself support any of these losers Terry
Report Angoose June 12, 2019 5:12 PM BST
Every loser wins
Report politicspunter June 12, 2019 9:55 PM BST
Hunts price is drifting and it looks as though Leadsom could become second favourite shortly. What am I missing here?  Is anyone willing to take a stab at a scenario where she could win this or even get to the last two (no matter how far fetched it might seem)?
Report donny osmond June 12, 2019 10:11 PM BST
she could be the reserve incase boris goes rogue?

somebodys money is keeping her there, ....

dunno , you find out after results declared tomorrow, at least you find out if you need to think
about starting to panic.
Report politicspunter June 12, 2019 10:17 PM BST
I am shaking more than a multi orgasmic girlfriend I once had.
Report unitedbiscuits June 12, 2019 10:27 PM BST
a multi orgasmic girlfriend I once had.
Where did she go wrong?Laugh
Report Mighty Whites 2008 June 12, 2019 11:10 PM BST
you have to think someone knows that there are backers for leadsom not declaring. There is over a grand waiting at 10 or less for her to win. Her price has also stayed 2nd or 3rd favourite over the last week or so despite other prices being more volatile. Half a million has been traded on her with the vast majority sub 11. Seems bizarre for someone who on the face of it looks like she will be lucky to survive tomorrow.
Report thegiggilo June 13, 2019 12:22 AM BST
Whole things probably a set up to make johnson look a bigger winner!
Report tobermory June 13, 2019 2:03 AM BST
Only thing I can think of is that Leadsom actually does have 30+ firm supporters and has had them all along. But they have been instructed to not declare or maybe declare for other candidates.

Raab has a couple of dozen apparently but maybe they have all along planned to switch to Leadsom. The market certainly seems to think their declared candidates are the reverse of what we see. Even more sensational would be if the secret Leadsom backers had declared for Boris, and then tomorrow he polls about 66 MPs instead of the 90+ expected and Leadsom has 40+.

With these sort of multi ballot or primary type elections being perceived as surging in support is often considered more important than actually being in the lead.

It's a secret ballot isn't it ? So perhaps this sort of scam is more feasible than I thought. I think I will reduce my Leadsom red. If she does get a lot more than declarations indicate I think I will red out altogether.
Report tobermory June 13, 2019 2:07 AM BST
It was certainly odd that it appears her camp let it be known that they had 'borrowed' votes to get in. The fewer she officially has the more of a story she will be if she does very well.

Maybe she borrowed the votes from herself.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 7:45 AM BST
Well, I am -4.2K on her and would prefer her out today.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 9:37 AM BST
 
Total matched on this event:£4,037,203 [next tory leader]
Betting summary - Volume:£516,203 [a leadsom]
Last price matched: 9.6
Report MartinK June 13, 2019 9:51 AM BST
If Leadsom's support is being managed then what is most likely is that she gets a little over the 17 she needs for the first round, the a little over 33 for the second round, then the third round the full level of her support will be  shown.
Building momentum.

That along with possible tactical voting to elevate some of the no hopers above Stewart, we could have a very interesting first round result.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 10:04 AM BST
I am hoping that some of the Hancock backers go for Stewart. Get Hancock (and probably Harper ) out with Stewart picking up their votes.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 10:36 AM BST
Total matched on this event:£4,084,853
Betting summary - Volume:£527,715
Last price matched: 12



doesnt take much , does it ?
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 10:38 AM BST
Well now, apparently Leadsom has arrived very early at the vote and is trying to drum up support.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 10:45 AM BST
Total matched on this event:£4,090,885
Betting summary - Volume:£531,987
Last price matched: 9.8
Report Angoose June 13, 2019 10:48 AM BST
Don't forget what the market on here was saying about the result of the Peterborough by-election Crazy
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 10:51 AM BST
Well yes, but there was a decent case to be made for why it was wrong on that occasion.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 10:58 AM BST
..and it was wrong about trump and brexit

just back anything between 8 and 10 on political markets

cant lose...






^^^ satire, incase any one thinks otherwise
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 11:02 AM BST
Total matched on this event:£4,098,157
Betting summary - Volume:£533,779
Last price matched: 10.5



fun packed morning on the a leadsom front
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 11:04 AM BST
rory 24
govy 38

Plain
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 11:56 AM BST
bungley 1.37
loathsomly 10.50
jezza 11.00
rory 27
coaky 30
sajjy 48
raaaby 75
hanksy 200
harpsy 540
scousey 560


Matched:
GBP 4,120,144
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 12:10 PM BST
Round one voting for the next leader of the Tory Party - and next UK prime minister - has closed.

The result is expected around 13:00 BST.





take care, somebody knows the results!
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 12:13 PM BST
David Davis was turned away from voting because he
didn’t have his parliamentary ID card with him.


Laugh
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 12:13 PM BST
Yes, me. Harper, McVey and Leadsom out, the rest in.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 12:15 PM BST
Prime Minster Theresa May has also cast her vote but she refused to tell reporters who she is supporting.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 12:16 PM BST
theres still 2 grand holding leadsoms price, it keeps being pushed back

cheap publicity i suppose...
Report Angoose June 13, 2019 12:33 PM BST
Any chance of Boris doing a Devon Loch ?
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 12:34 PM BST
Yes.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 12:47 PM BST
bungley 1.37....................1.39 slight driffy
loathsomly 10.50................11.00 ditto
jezza 11.00......................10.00 but not much money for him
rory 27,.........................32
coaky 30.........................36
sajjy 48..........................27   timberrrr!
raaaby 75........................70
hanksy 200.......................220
harpsy 540.......................610
scousey 560......................560



Matched:
GBP 4,163,526................40k matched since last update
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 12:56 PM BST
only £200 waiting to hold leadsome price until 20!
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 1:07 PM BST
oi oi 23
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 1:07 PM BST
60 !!!
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 1:09 PM BST
bungley 1.37 114
loathsomly 10.50 gonna !!!
jezza 11.00 43
rory 27 18
coaky 30 37
sajjy 48 23
raaaby 75 27
hanksy 200 20
harpsy 540 10
scousey 560 9
Report enpassant June 13, 2019 1:12 PM BST
Haven't been keeping a close eye on this thread for a few days but are you laying off Boris pp ? It looks like the rancids have opted for him even though he will be the final nail imo for them.
Report enpassant June 13, 2019 1:19 PM BST
326 Politics
‏ @326Pols
9m9 minutes ago

Results against our projection from yesterday:

Gove: 37 (45)
Hancock: 20 (20)
Harper: 10 (11)
Hunt: 43 (47)
Javid: 23 (24)
Johnson: 114 (111)
Leadsom: 11 (7)
McVey: 9 (8)
Raab: 30 (27)
Stewart: 19 (9)

Pretty close! Rory Stewart the big winner, with 10 extra declarations.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 1:19 PM BST
bungley 1.37....................1.39 ........1.30 (114)
jezza 11.00......................10.00 ''''''8.80 (43)
rory 27,.........................32...........34 (18)
coaky 30.........................36...........21 (37)
sajjy 48..........................27  ........40  (23)
raaaby 75........................70 ..........60  (27)
hanksy 200.......................220..........190 (20)

.......................................................

loathsomly 10.50................11.00
harpsy 540.......................610
scousey 560......................560
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 1:29 PM BST
Andrea Leadsom 9.81 £610.03 £5,376.19

Average odds layed, stake, liability.  Phew, thank goodness for that. No matter how certain you are, there will also be an element of doubt.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 1:32 PM BST
somebody wants £150 at 960

free money !!!

well done pp
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 1:37 PM BST
Wish I had a bank big enough to hoover up the rest of that Leadsom money.
Report donny osmond June 13, 2019 1:40 PM BST
i guess its people like yourself, wanting to free up funds

partial settlement would help, but if an election was called
they would all be back in the running after may got wiped out by corbyn...
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 2:22 PM BST
Now we move on to ballot 2 on Tuesday 18th. Thirty two MPs support minimum to get through with the candidate with the lowest number of votes dropping out.

Certain- Boris
Almost certain- Hunt
Fairly certain- Gove

Contenders for next elimination (votes in first ballot)...

Raab (27)
Javid (23)
Hancock (20)
Stewart (19)

With Leadsom, McVey and Harper dropping out, their 30 aggregate votes, mostly composed of leavers could be helpful to Raab. He should have enough to get to the 32 required assuming he doesn't lose any existing support.
Javid, Hancock and Stewart know there is a danger all of them will be eliminated. I can't see Javid dropping out, nor Stewart who clearly has momentum. Hancock has to ask himself if it's worth continuing. If he drops out Javid or Stewart or possibly both could make it to the next stage if Hancocks votes go directly to them.
Report politicspunter June 13, 2019 2:28 PM BST
And you can bet your bottom dollar that Boris supporters will lend their votes to Raab if there is any possibility of him being eliminated.
Report Whisperingdeath June 13, 2019 2:52 PM BST
Yes hadn't thought of that. Get rid of Rory and difficult questions!
Report terry mccann June 13, 2019 3:10 PM BST
Hunt still there though
Report tobermory June 13, 2019 3:47 PM BST
Wouldn't Boris rather get the leavers eliminated ? Is there any point to Raab hanging in there other than to build a case for a senior cabinet position ? (which he could perhaps secure by endorsing Boris now or after 2nd ballot )

This really looks over as Boris surely can't miss the last 2.

1.27 looks very generous. But I after the Leadsom mystery I am reluctant to get more involved when it can take so long for the real world to bring the market to it's senses.
Report Whisperingdeath June 13, 2019 7:48 PM BST
Bozo is red hot with the Blue Rinse. Better to get rid of Brexiter's although Rory Stewart will do his best to hole him below the water line. Tough choices ahead for Team keep Bozo's Mouth Shut for a few weeks!
Report politicspunter June 16, 2019 2:10 PM BST
Reading between the lines regarding the latest declarations of support, it appears that Javid and Stewart could be out of the race after the second ballot. It appears that many of Hancocks previous supporters are now backing Gove, with Hancock himself bizarrely backing Boris. Raab should make it ok as he should pick up some of McVey and Leadsoms supporters.
Report Dr Crippen June 16, 2019 3:13 PM BST
You must have lost a fortune backing you opinions politicspunter.

You're clearly clueless.
Report politicspunter June 16, 2019 3:18 PM BST
Well, maybe I spoke too soon because a well known political commentator is now saying that former Hancock supporters who other candidates thought they had in the bag are now moving to Stewart. I have no evidence at all to support this but I feel Rory deserves to get past ballot two.
Report politicspunter June 16, 2019 3:21 PM BST

Jun 16, 2019 -- 9:13AM, Dr Crippen wrote:


You must have lost a fortune backing you opinions politicspunter.You're clearly clueless.


I am doing just fine thanks. All my selections/bets are posted in advance on this site if you care to look. However, as you don't bet, can't work out odds or percentages, or are able to count, it will all be gobbledegook to you.

Report Dr Crippen June 16, 2019 3:21 PM BST
There's touchy.
Report donny osmond June 16, 2019 4:24 PM BST
pp is an honest bloke
Report eric_morris June 16, 2019 7:30 PM BST
The only market of interest is one without Boris now.
Report aaronh June 17, 2019 12:58 PM BST
some good quotes coming out in the Lobby Hustings
Report jollyswagman July 23, 2019 1:42 PM BST
how did you end up on this pp, i remember at one stage you had a huge bozo red?
Report akabula July 24, 2019 10:40 PM BST
How much did you win?


politicspunter
17 Feb 19 19:40 

I hadn't actually noticed till just now but I was able to lay off all my liability (and make a good profit if he wins) on Javid.  I was worried about him but managed to get rid of it all at 12s on here.  Now my book is looking really nice except for one contender which is Boris. He will cost me into four figure territory if he goes in.  Should I be worried about his chances?
Report politicspunter July 24, 2019 11:20 PM BST

Jul 23, 2019 -- 7:42AM, jollyswagman wrote:


how did you end up on this pp, i remember at one stage you had a huge bozo red?


Jolly, I sure did, I was a grand down on a Johnson win (Conservative next leader market) about six months or so ago so had to take evasive action. Started off with this one with Billy Mountains...

26 Mar 19
09:29
Won
Single:
Stake: 63.00  - Returns: 441.00
Party Leader Betting - Next Permanent Conservative Leader after Theresa May
Boris Johnson @ 7.00

Then from earlier on this thread...

politicspunter • June 13, 2019 1:29 PM BST
Andrea Leadsom 9.81 £610.03 £5,376.19

Average odds layed, stake, liability.  Phew, thank goodness for that. No matter how certain you are, there will also be an element of doubt.

I also had a few other lays so overall I won about £150.

Report unitedbiscuits July 24, 2019 11:42 PM BST
Have you considered dog-walking, politicspunter? They do okay in most parts; it would get you out of the house and give the internet a rest from you as well. Most people would call that win/win.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 24, 2019 11:52 PM BST
i always laugh when folk talk about dog walkers as for some reason i can never decide which end of the lead some folk should be on!


lucky escape pp, but i would have been max red boris too, what a shocking result for us all, even without any money on.


its a bit of a coup in the tory party, and with the italians giving away secrets of where the russian money is coming from
and patel as home sec, its a worrying spell we are entering.

election this year gets more likely ?
Report unitedbiscuits July 24, 2019 11:59 PM BST
Dom Cummings appointment signals to me that a GE is likely sooner.
Report thegiggilo July 25, 2019 2:03 AM BST
https://twitter.com/UxbridgeLabour/status/1153666496238931968


LaughLaugh
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com