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General election betting

Meadow X1

20 Apr 17 09:41

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Date Joined: 07 Mar 05

| Topic/replies: 2,733 | Blogger: Meadow X1's blog

Thought it would be good to start a thread on what we are actually here for! There are a host of different markets up now, from the usual of most seats, percentage band of vote etc. Apart from on Paddy Power there are no constituency seats betting as yet. From my own viewpoint I feel the LibDem chances may be overrated. Paddy Power opened with 34.5 seats (5/6 higher or lower). This has now been cut in line with other bookmakers to 31.5 which I still think is too high. I will try and give more detail on this in a separate thread (particularly the LibDem Scotland target seats). The huge estimate Conservative seat gain is mainly based on the UKIP vote collapsing and as each new opinion poll arrives almost daily, this UKIP voting intention will have a direct impact on the bookie prices.

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By:

the fink sisters When: 20 Apr 17 09:48

1.18 overall Conservative majority. My personal view is that this is over-priced. Thoughts?

By:

InsiderTrader When: 20 Apr 17 09:54

If the Conservative manifesto actual states the goal is the end of free movement and leaving the single market then I then there is no need for people to vote UKIP.

The big question then is if ex-Labour voters in Northern England vote Conservative instead of UKIP. If they do things Labour who want uncontrolled immigration and to stay in the single market will see their vote collapse.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 20 Apr 17 09:58

Apr 20, 2017 -- 9:54AM, InsiderTrader wrote:

If the Conservative manifesto actual states the goal is the end of free movement and leaving the single market then I then there is no need for people to vote UKIP.The big question then is if ex-Labour voters in Northern England vote Conservative instead of UKIP. If they do things Labour who want uncontrolled immigration and to stay in the single market will see their vote collapse.

I think this is crucial in deciding the number of Conservative seats. If there is a massive UKIP switch to Conservative their seat gains could go crazy.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 20 Apr 17 10:00

Apr 20, 2017 -- 9:48AM, the fink sisters wrote:

1.18 overall Conservative majority. My personal view is that this is over-priced. Thoughts?

When I first looked at this closely yesterday I was initially hoping I could make a case to lay this. However, with new opinion polls arriving and the UKIP voting intention going down a Conservative majority is looking more certain. 1.18 may look a big price in a few days but of course things can change.

By:

InsiderTrader When: 20 Apr 17 10:11

I think the reason people are laying it at such a high price is they know that if the Conservatives do not get an overall majority the country will be in chaos.

How will the UK be able to negotiate Brexit if it is a coalition government? Farron, the SNP and some of Labour want us to stay in the single market.

Libdems could therefore not have a working coalition with the Tories.

By:

InsiderTrader When: 20 Apr 17 10:12

What I mean by that is that it is a hedge against chaos.

By:

anxious When: 20 Apr 17 10:17

With the help of the biased right wing press fawning over One nation Theresa and demonising Jeremy im sure plenty of the sheep will vote for her

By:

Can't Catch Me When: 20 Apr 17 10:23

So anyone who votes for her is a sheep now?

By:

Meadow X1 When: 20 Apr 17 10:25

Guys, why don't you go and discuss this on another thread and just keep this one for betting views please.

By:

InsiderTrader When: 20 Apr 17 10:26

anxious,

Do Labour want to keep us in the single market and keep free movement people?

If they do then anyone that vote Labour is voting for the continued decline in wages and living standards for the British working class.

By:

anxious When: 20 Apr 17 10:39

IT this election is a cynical ploy by the tories to whip up jingoistic fervour and nothing about the real issues which face our country , as regards Brexit the true difference is whether you are shafted by British Capitalists or European Capitalists

By:

jollyswagman When: 20 Apr 17 11:29

tory majority was 1.3something briefly yesterday, i dont like long odds on but even 1.17 is value, imo.

the long and the short of it is that the more the public see of corbyn and his front bench the less chance labour have of winning. will mcdonald be getting out his copy of mao's little red book? probably not but if they've any sense the tories will put a clip from his perplexing commons performance in one of their ads.

By:

jollyswagman When: 20 Apr 17 11:34

sorry mcdonnell

By:

Meadow X1 When: 20 Apr 17 11:58

If you are looking for something to lump on at short odds then WillHill and Ladbrokes both have Labour at 1/5 (was 1/4 with Lads) to have the biggest vote without the Conservatives. I am trying to work out why this price should not be 1/100.

By:

Can't Catch Me When: 20 Apr 17 12:07

Would much rather back Conservative majority than Labour next best at similar prices myself.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 20 Apr 17 12:10

CCM,

Ladbrokes bet is a straight match Labour v LibDems. How on earth are the LibDems going to get more votes than Labour?

By:

Can't Catch Me When: 20 Apr 17 12:13

How on earth are the Conservatives not going to get a majority?

By:

Can't Catch Me When: 20 Apr 17 12:14

Sure both will happen Meadow... just saying that if I was going to lump on one of those two, that's the one I prefer personally.

Would be less surprised if Labour were completely decimated than the Tories didn't get a clear majority.

By:

Dotchinite When: 20 Apr 17 12:17

Meadow. Id be interested in your opinion on the Lib Dem vote share market.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 20 Apr 17 12:36

Apr 20, 2017 -- 12:17PM, Dotchinite wrote:

Meadow. Id be interested in your opinion on the Lib Dem vote share market.

This is a market where again I feel the LibDems chances are being overestimated.
LibDem market share...

0-10%...5/1 in general, 8/1 with skybet, 14s on here (40s and up has been traded for the minimum-me).
10-20%...8/13 Ladbrokes, Coral (they are effectively the same company).
20% and over..9/4 Lad, Coral.

If the current opinion polls are correct (no reason to doubt) and the Conservative vote is going up daily thanks to UKIP deserters, that leaves the LibDems fishing in a smaller daily pool. They are not going to take votes from the Nationalists in Scotland or Wales so that leaves Labour who must be getting near their core vote.

I would take the small amount of 14s etc (under 10%) on here just now and give it a week or so to see how the markets move.

By:

Dotchinite When: 20 Apr 17 13:04

Thanks for that. I was thinking under 3-1 on here for a 20 percent plus vote share looked rather short.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 20 Apr 17 13:20

On the LibDem target list, ten of the top forty three are in Scotland. All these target sets are currently held by SNP. For LibDems to take any of these seats they need the unionist parties to lend them their vote. If the Conservative vote is going up (including in Scotland), why would a Conservative unionist leave voter lend a LibDem their vote?

By:

akabula When: 21 Apr 17 02:13

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter ross (Paul Monaghan) and Ross, Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford) are 2 seats that the Lib/Dems lost to the Nats through huge swings last time around.
Neither MP has covered themselves in glory and I'm sure there will be some lib/dem voters returning to the fold. Whether enough to regain the seats I don't know but the Cons vote in each case was only 6% so not really relying on them to 'lend' their vote.

By:

the fink sisters When: 21 Apr 17 10:16

It will be interesting to see the markets forming around individual constituency results.

I'm in Richmond Park and feel that the well known former Lib Dem MPs in surrounding constituencies (Davey, Cable) will be poised to retake their seats given how the referendum went and that all these constituencies are two horse races. I think that Sarah Olney herself, however, who unseated Goldsmith in the Richmond Park by-election is under threat. Lib Dems put in a huge effort with campaigners drawn in far and wide, plus there was a pretty small turn-out indicating that most Conservative voters stayed at home.

Do we think that George Galloway will be standing anywhere this time around? An election just isn't the same without him.

By:

the fink sisters When: 21 Apr 17 10:22

Just realised that George was going to stand in Manchester Gorton before they called this.....

By:

TheBaron When: 21 Apr 17 12:22

Going by their PP broadcast last night I'd say the Lib Dems have abandoned any hope of the Labour working class vote.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 21 Apr 17 13:26

Apr 21, 2017 -- 10:16AM, the fink sisters wrote:

It will be interesting to see the markets forming around individual constituency results.I'm in Richmond Park and feel that the well known former Lib Dem MPs in surrounding constituencies (Davey, Cable) will be poised to retake their seats given how the referendum went and that all these constituencies are two horse races. I think that Sarah Olney herself, however, who unseated Goldsmith in the Richmond Park by-election is under threat. Lib Dems put in a huge effort with campaigners drawn in far and wide, plus there was a pretty small turn-out indicating that most Conservative voters stayed at home.Do we think that George Galloway will be standing anywhere this time around? An election just isn't the same without him.

I agree that Sarah Olney will struggle to retain this seat. It was effectively a low turnout match between Zac and her.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 26 Apr 17 10:35

Paddy Power and Betfair now have constituency betting in nearly all seats as far as I can make out.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 26 Apr 17 10:37

Skybet have quite a few, William Hill some and Ladbrokes next to nothing.

By:

CJ70 When: 26 Apr 17 11:00

Next to no liquidity in Betfair exchange markets which is a shame. Newport West is down twice in the Welsh constituencies.

By:

Frodo When: 26 Apr 17 11:16

Isle of Wight missing! Largest Constituency in the country.

By:

CJ70 When: 26 Apr 17 11:18

Apr 26, 2017 -- 11:16AM, Frodo wrote:

Isle of Wight missing! Largest Constituency in the country.

I'd take 1.01 if they put that one up

By:

Meadow X1 When: 26 Apr 17 14:13

Apr 21, 2017 -- 2:13AM, akabula wrote:

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter ross (Paul Monaghan) and Ross, Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford) are 2 seats that the Lib/Dems lost to the Nats through huge swings last time around.Neither MP has covered themselves in glory and I'm sure there will be some lib/dem voters returning to the fold. Whether enough to regain the seats I don't know but the Cons vote in each case was only 6% so not really relying on them to 'lend' their vote.

Confident SNP will hold these seats, Ross more comfortably than Caithness.

By:

CJ70 When: 26 Apr 17 14:19

Apr 26, 2017 -- 2:13PM, Meadow X1 wrote:

Apr 21, 2017 -- 2:13AM, akabula wrote:Caithness, Sutherland and Easter ross (Paul Monaghan) and Ross, Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford) are 2 seats that the Lib/Dems lost to the Nats through huge swings last time around.Neither MP has covered themselves in glory and I'm sure there will be some lib/dem voters returning to the fold. Whether enough to regain the seats I don't know but the Cons vote in each case was only 6% so not really relying on them to 'lend' their vote.Confident SNP will hold these seats, Ross more comfortably than Caithness.

Problem with LD's taking Caithness is that they lost their best card to the Lords. You'd have thought if the popular Thurso was standing that would be a gimme for the LD's.

Depends who stands. Will the LD's concentrate on a few seats and parachute a well-known candidate in there?

By:

Meadow X1 When: 26 Apr 17 14:35

If it's helpful for anyone betting on the total SNP seat markets I have it as ...

34 certain hold
6 almost certain hold
16 close calls
3 probably lost

By:

CJ70 When: 26 Apr 17 14:59

How many Con gains do you see under the current polls? I'm guessing Lab -> SNP -> Con maybe the order rather than Lab -> Con.

By:

Shab When: 26 Apr 17 15:06

Interesting comverstaion last night with my son and his 2 mates. We live in Blaydon, Gateshead - held by Labour with HUUUUGE majorities. I am the only non-Labour voter in the group of mates in the pub (all in our 50s).

Last night the kids (early 20s) were discussing the election. Their main point was to ask how anybody could vote Labour as they are in a complete shambles and their policies are terrible. Then it occurred to me - around here was decimated by the tories in the 80s (Consett is just up the road, where they shut all the mines and the steelworks, unemployment was about 100%) - but that was before the kids were born and has no effect on their decision.

Their youthful thinking could have disastrous consequences for Labour - not here as Labour will win again, and maybe not this election. But the future is very bleak for them.

By:

Dotchinite When: 26 Apr 17 15:09

Anyone got any strong views of Conservative share of the vote. I just cant believe it can be greater than 50% or am I wrong.

By:

Meadow X1 When: 26 Apr 17 16:25

Apr 26, 2017 -- 2:59PM, CJ70 wrote:

How many Con gains do you see under the current polls? I'm guessing Lab -> SNP -> Con maybe the order rather than Lab -> Con.

In the Scotland four party system, many of the usual rest of Great Britain rules go out the window.

1/ There are not many UKIP votes to switch to Conservative.
2/ SNP voters wouldn't normally switch to Conservative.
3/ The unionist parties often vote tactically to defeat the nationalists.

The constituency battleground this year, needless to say, involve the SNP.

1/ SNP-Con (Ochil, Moray, Perth, Aberdeen West, Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale, Berwickshire, Dumfries and Galloway).
2/ SNP-LibDem (Caithness, East Dunbarton, Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Orkney, Ross Skye and Lochaber).
3/ SNP-Con where CON were previously third and Labour were challengers(East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh North, Edinburgh South, Edinburgh South West, Aberdeen South, Stirling).

The timing of the election doesn't help the SNP in constituencies where there is a significant student population. I am more confident the SNP can hold on in places like Ross, Skye and Lochaber against the LibDems than Stirling against the Conservatives.