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Rydal
13 Jan 17 09:00
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Date Joined: 15 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 723 | Blogger: Rydal's blog
Labour MP Tristram Hunt quits to become director of Victoria and Albert Museum

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Replies: 503
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 09:37
Stoke massive turnout for the referendum, massive Leave vote. Interesting to see who UKIP put up for this.
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 09:40
2015 Election 12k+ votes HUNT, 14k+ votes UKIP and Tories.

Interesting only 49.9% turnout at last election. Real question is not whether Labour can get their vote out, but whether it even exists any more.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 11:00

Jan 13, 2017 -- 4:40AM, jed.davison wrote:


2015 Election 12k+ votes HUNT, 14k+ votes UKIP and Tories.Interesting only 49.9% turnout at last election. Real question is not whether Labour can get their vote out, but whether it even exists any more.


You are deluded in your thinking.

By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 11:10
Why is that Meadow?

Do you have a view on the by-election?
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 11:16
Will you give me even money Labour?
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 11:21
The EU referendum was feverish though Jed, hence the high turn out.

Many of those voters were first time voters who voted Leave.
These by-elections create a low turn out, only 37% voted in the recent North Hykeham and Sleaford by-election.
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 11:21
I've had a pre-emptive dabble on UKIP already. Quite why I'd want to lay you even money labour, you'd have to explain that one to me.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 11:23
I think you are massively underestimating Labour's chances of winning this seat.
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 11:24
That's a safe Tory seat though ZM, was never going any other way.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 11:25
If there was the same turn-out as the last GE of 50% then UKIP may have a squeak of grabbing 20% of Labour votes to get them over the line.
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 11:29
All your thinking assumes that people who voted Leave at the Referendum are going to stay at home. There were wards in Stoke where the turn-out in the referendum reached 90%, and Labour and Corbyn will need to be very careful with their choice of candidate and pre-event rhetoric not to get those people out voting UKIP in numbers.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 11:30
It will be interesting to see the turn out figures Jed.
If those Leave voters do see it as a chance (which they should) to get a seat for UKIP then it could be a higher turn out.

It could be interesting, but these by-elections need advertising better. UKIP should be thrashing out the ground work immediately.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 11:33
I just don't get how highly folks rate UKIP's chances of winning anything. There is next to no evidence to suggest it post General election.
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 11:40
You're right Meadow, Ogmore and Sheffield though were expected Labour wins and NH & S was solid Tory.

As said, I think there is a slightly different dynamic at work here, that's all.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 11:40
The EU referendum happend post GE Meadow.

That was quite telling.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 11:53
Telling in what way?
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 12:13
If you look at UKIP's recent record not only in parliamentary by elections but in local council elections there is only one trend and that's down. If folks say there must be more support for UKIP as we voted leave they are wrong. Take a look at myself, I am an SNP (staunchly remain party) supporter who voted leave. In Scotland leave got 38%. Does that mean those 38% support UKIP? Not at all, UKIp are lucky if they get 2% in any Scottish election.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 12:14
That the working class would happily oppose Labours stance on immigration and want more Leave representation in parliament.

I imagine that if the turn out for this by-election was at 70% then Labour would be in trouble, but the appetite for these by-elections are not what they should be.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 12:17
Your situation is very different from a working class family in Stoke.

Immigration was not your chief reason to vote Leave was it Meadow?
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 12:17
You are overestimating the leave/remain question. Local factors matter far more.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 12:19
Immigration is a local matter.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 13 Jan 17 12:20
As my dad was 45 years down a pit, I might not be far off it.  My main reason for voting leave was immigration as I was fed up with primary school teachers not being able to teach any child in their class who spoke English. I don't want my grandchildren to have to have to face that.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 13 Jan 17 12:23
Labour should increase its majority with the right candidate. Dont suppose many local voters had much time for Hunt.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 12:28
Fair enough Meadow, same here and not sure how either of us could vote for the Labour Party.
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Jan 17 13:35
The early 3/1 UKIP now best-priced 5/2.

Labour 2/5 in places, you can now get 4/6.
By:
CJ70
When: 13 Jan 17 13:52
I missed the UKIP at 4's, that'll teach me to lunch as Labour collapse.

I'm intrigued by the Con and LD price here. They seem to be majorly out of line? What am I missing.

I'm betting we are going to get a strong Ind candidate here as father & son have stood in the last two GE's as Ind. That may hurt the Lab->UKIP converts.

I'm wary of going large on this one because it's likely to come down to postal votes, now whatever we think about Labour's postal vote operation it is brilliant for adding votes.
By:
donny osmond
When: 13 Jan 17 14:20
ladrokes early 50/1 lib dems seems to have been popular
By:
CJ70
When: 13 Jan 17 14:22

Jan 13, 2017 -- 9:20AM, donny osmond wrote:


ladrokes early 50/1 lib dems seems to have been popular


Mike Smithson nabbed it causing the books to go into meltdown shortening the LD price.

By:
ZenMaster
When: 13 Jan 17 14:25
Surely Paul Nuttall must consider stepping on to the dance floor.
By:
CJ70
When: 13 Jan 17 14:32

Jan 13, 2017 -- 9:25AM, ZenMaster wrote:


Surely Paul Nuttall must consider stepping on to the dance floor.


If not we'll know how confident UKIP are of winning it. Nuttall may well be saving himself for a NW seat and they may want a local in here if Lab play that card.

Leadership candidate Bill Etheridge has said he'll stand if Nuttall doesn't want it, so UKIP will be going strongly at it either way.

By:
sageform
When: 13 Jan 17 15:46
could be a very interesting result. I don't know the constituency but I would be surprised if the Tories don't at least go close.
By:
anxious
When: 13 Jan 17 16:59
Nutall is going to be a big failure for UKIP there is no way that they will replace Labour in their Northern working class heartlands , he will be exsposed very easily
By:
CJ70
When: 13 Jan 17 17:29

Jan 13, 2017 -- 10:46AM, sageform wrote:


could be a very interesting result. I don't know the constituency but I would be surprised if the Tories don't at least go close.


I think Con are short myself.

By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 13 Jan 17 18:14
This will be an interesting by-election and a good litmus test of where UKIP are heading. If they have aspirations to gain westminster seats then an area like this must be the sort of area they win especially in a by-election.

Meadow I take your point about  not all leavers being ukip supporters but this is area where there is strong support for UKIP and there was a high leave vote the correlation between the two may get them over the line. Can't imagine Corbyn's vision is what the people of Stoke want.
By:
donny osmond
When: 14 Jan 17 12:33
i think ukip may do better in a general election in certain seats wheras
they do not yet have the groundforce to bring to the area in a by election

but a four way fight should suit them better than a two way go
By:
Meadow X1
When: 15 Jan 17 20:22
4/5 Labour in a seat they should be 2/5 or shorter?
By:
ZenMaster
When: 15 Jan 17 20:50
A possible chance of a Con/Ukip tactical affar may be the reason.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 16 Jan 17 09:48
Labour's majority in this seat has went down in the last two General elections. I would speculate that is because...

1/ Hunt's background is not popular with traditional Labour voters.

2/ The presence of an independent anti-Labour candidate.

3/ Ukip/BNP vote share increasing without threatening to win.

What is likely in this by election?

1/ A "traditional" local Labour candidate.

2/ No vote loss to an independent anti-Labour candidate?

3/ Ukip vote share steady or down slightly as in all parliamentary and council by elections post 2015 general election.

At the last General election vote share was...

Labour 39.3%, Ukip 22.7%, Con 22.5%, Independent 6.8%, LibDem 4.2%, Green 3.6%, Others 0.9%.

If, as I suspect, Labour's vote share goes up, how can they lose this seat?
By:
ZenMaster
When: 16 Jan 17 10:27
Any Labour candidate is likely to be a Remoaner, Stoke is 70% Leave and as the government paves the way towards A50 would the Tories not  welcome Labour getting a kick in the teeth with UKIP winning this seat.

Could there be some tactical play in order here? A very good chance i believe.
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