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InsiderTrader
30 Sep 16 18:36
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 33,873 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
We saw in the Brexit vote how the establishment polls were completely and utterly wrong. Yet we see exactly the same thing going on in the USA Presidential polls.

The polls conducted using old style methods with tiny samples that disregard the affect of social media and  mobile phones and over account for the main stream media and landlines have been shown time and again to be wrong in recent times.

The pollsters, the IMF, the credit rating agencies and all the rest of the establishment keep getting it wrong again and again yet people with money still believe them. Why is this the case? Are they stuck in some bubble away from the real world in New York, LA, Washington and London? Do they never travel to the Midwest or Northern England to see what people really think of the globalists?

Time to Lay Clinton again.
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Report lfc1971 July 31, 2020 4:38 PM BST
I don’t think anyone pays any attention to the vp ?
Report timbuctooth July 31, 2020 5:24 PM BST
`Why does the market still believe the pollsters?`

Because the same leftie schmucks still believe the same schmolesters. Having their minds closed to truth, ignoring facts, and with no obvious commonsense or insight, leaves them nowhere else to find something (ANYTHING!!!) that soothes their troubled seething.
Report politicspunter July 31, 2020 5:30 PM BST
Lol Tim,  If you are betting on who you wish to win, you are going to lose all your money.
Report timbuctooth July 31, 2020 5:40 PM BST
I see prices quoted upthread of 3/1 The Don; yes, he was 3/1 at many times during the campaign, but the times that matter are when the action started, on polling day itself, when hillary was 1.09, and Brexit remain was 1.06
Report politicspunter July 31, 2020 5:45 PM BST
Tim, the times that matter are before the market opens and you do your prep. You shouldn't be betting on politics if you are only betting on the candidate/party that your political allegiances agree with. Of course you will win sometimes, probably half the time on average, but the rest of the time you will lose the lot.
Report tobermory July 31, 2020 9:33 PM BST

Jul 31, 2020 -- 10:38AM, lfc1971 wrote:


I don’t think anyone pays any attention to the vp ?


Not usually. But when the candidate is 77 years old and hardly knows what day it is many people will assume the VP will be the president within a couple of years.

Report tobermory July 31, 2020 9:41 PM BST
You can't argue that the pollsters in 2016 had Brexit and the US election as coin flips because a small minority of polls had Brexit or Trump 1 pt ahead. The overwhelming majority of polls had Remain and Hilary leading, mostly comfortably.
Report tobermory July 31, 2020 9:44 PM BST
For Wisconsin,Pennsylvania and Michigan there were 104 polls taken. Hilary was ahead in 101 ! Many of them by margins of 7+. Two polls were tied and Trump was one point up in the other. Of course Trump won all three.
Report timbuctooth July 31, 2020 9:56 PM BST
Careful with such truths, you`ll have the schmolesters` heads swivelling, they`ll be cancelling you
Report darren_discombobulates_sports July 31, 2020 11:04 PM BST
Companies who conduct polls do so either by phone or online surveys, if you are someone who is willing to spend 10/15 minutes to answer this phone call to Joe Randomer or filling out questions online, then you must be someone who is already very politically active and this why polls can be so wrong, the people that make the difference at general elections are those that are not normally politically engaged because they are the majority, the casual voter, and they are most likely to not bother answering polls, polling companies use quota sampling, it's flawed, puts a great amount of effort in to tick all the demographic boxes in order to get a representative view of the country, but that small pool of politically active people will not reflect public mood.

Exit polls are closer to the mark.

If you're a political punter, you're better off getting your clipboard and pen out and go and conduct your own poll and speak to real people, would have to dedicate a good period of time as close to the election as possible, if someone says they're not sure if they're gonner vote or they'll probably vote this way or that way and not definitely, they're the people you want to extract an answer from.
Report timbuctooth August 1, 2020 12:40 AM BST
Strangely, none of the usual suspects have posted this;

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

With 50% prepared to declare for The Don, even in the current cancel climate, the real figure is much higher, we`re in ROMPING IT territory.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 6:20 AM BST

Jul 31, 2020 -- 3:41PM, tobermory wrote:


You can't argue that the pollsters in 2016 had Brexit and the US election as coin flips because a small minority of polls had Brexit or Trump 1 pt ahead. The overwhelming majority of polls had Remain and Hilary leading, mostly comfortably.


No they didn't.

Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 6:22 AM BST

Jul 31, 2020 -- 3:44PM, tobermory wrote:


For Wisconsin,Pennsylvania and Michigan there were 104 polls taken. Hilary was ahead in 101 ! Many of them by margins of 7+. Two polls were tied and Trump was one point up in the other. Of course Trump won all three.


The only state in the whole of the USA that returned a result outwith the margin of error of the polls was Wisconsin.

Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 6:30 AM BST

Jul 31, 2020 -- 6:40PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Strangely, none of the usual suspects have posted this; https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administratio... 50% prepared to declare for The Don, even in the current cancel climate, the real figure is much higher, we`re in ROMPING IT territory.


Lol Tim, how many times do you have to be told the same thing regarding Rasmussen? Rasmussen use home phone only and consequently mostly speak to elderly folks, Trumps core supporters. 538, the main polling rating organisation automatically deduct 7% from Rasmussen polls. Now Tim, that's at least four times I have told you exactly the same thing so please stop quoting them in order to support your agenda. Here however is a link to ALL polls (including Rasmussen)....

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/

Notice that Rasmussen has Trump approval rating at +2. The poll above has Trump at -16, conducted on exactly the same days.

Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 6:45 AM BST

Jul 31, 2020 -- 5:04PM, darren_discombobulates_sports wrote:


Companies who conduct polls do so either by phone or online surveys, if you are someone who is willing to spend 10/15 minutes to answer this phone call to Joe Randomer or filling out questions online, then you must be someone who is already very politically active and this why polls can be so wrong, the people that make the difference at general elections are those that are not normally politically engaged because they are the majority, the casual voter, and they are most likely to not bother answering polls, polling companies use quota sampling, it's flawed, puts a great amount of effort in to tick all the demographic boxes in order to get a representative view of the country, but that small pool of politically active people will not reflect public mood.Exit polls are closer to the mark. If you're a political punter, you're better off getting your clipboard and pen out and go and conduct your own poll and speak to real people, would have to dedicate a good period of time as close to the election as possible, if someone says they're not sure if they're gonner vote or they'll probably vote this way or that way and not definitely, they're the people you want to extract an answer from.


Darren, I use polls a great deal for betting purposes. The vast majority of them are very accurate ie within margin of error, some are extremely accurate and of course there is the odd one that is adrift. I tend to look at patterns and trends within the sub samples of these polls in order to try and help me build up a picture of the changing situation which often has been overlooked by the bookies/exchanges. It's not set in stone but in a major event such as a general election it's virtually impossible for every bookie to keep track of every constituency and the polling associated with it. Bookies make a lot more mistakes than polling companies.

Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 7:18 AM BST

Jul 31, 2020 -- 3:41PM, tobermory wrote:


You can't argue that the pollsters in 2016 had Brexit and the US election as coin flips because a small minority of polls had Brexit or Trump 1 pt ahead. The overwhelming majority of polls had Remain and Hilary leading, mostly comfortably.


Here is a link to the Brexit polling. In the month before the voting took place there were 40 polls. Leave was ahead in 21 of them, remain was ahead in 19 of them. It was a stonewall toss up.

Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 7:59 AM BST
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

And here is the link that I forgot to copy into the post aboveGrin
Report mafeking August 1, 2020 12:50 PM BST
market certainly didn't believe it though. can think that remain was bigger than about 1.5 at any stage and 1/10 and shorter on the day
Report mafeking August 1, 2020 12:50 PM BST
can't think
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 12:52 PM BST
Yep, those bookie prices were way out of line with what opinion polls were returning.
Report InsiderTrader August 1, 2020 2:27 PM BST
It is interesting that the newbies are trying the lecture the 2016 veterans on the quality of polling.
Report DanielKoellerer August 1, 2020 8:38 PM BST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQXhUwafRkI

Some of you need to watch this. It is pretty basic stuff. 2016 is not 2020.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 8:52 PM BST
Thanks Daniel, hopefully folks watch this and understand that Trump has an uphill battle.
Report DanielKoellerer August 1, 2020 8:55 PM BST
Yes, hopefully. The 2016 election and this one are nothing like each other.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 1, 2020 9:45 PM BST
he lost me when he started talking about baseball
Report DanielKoellerer August 1, 2020 9:48 PM BST
Well it's a pretty simple and obvious thing really. What happened in 2016 has no bearing on what is going to happen on the 3rd November.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 1, 2020 10:02 PM BST
Daniel with all due respect, this was posted on CNN's youtube channel.
Report politicspunter August 1, 2020 10:13 PM BST
Darren, with respect, it's spot on.
Report DanielKoellerer August 1, 2020 10:15 PM BST
It doesn't matter where it is posted, the truth is the truth. Are you suggesting that it is wrong?

If so, in your view, what similarities does the 2016 election and this year's share? And why would that mean a similar result/trend to 2016?

The only similarity I can see is that there is still a deeply polarised electorate.
Report PorcupineorPineapple August 1, 2020 11:14 PM BST
Yeah, just watched it and while there may be a few areas to investigate the idea that Trump 2016 the activist, shake it up new broom is the same as the incumbent president with the clearly measurable success rates is ridiculous.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 12:03 AM BST
The good point he did make is that no two elections are the same, but they are putting their own spin on things quite simply because they are Anti Trump, they are a very biased news organisation in the same way that Fox News are extremely biased, equally so.

He reference national polling average, cherry picking a specific day before the election (110 days) and called it his favourite data point, well he would, because it showed the points lead Biden had is huge and only 4 were bigger in previous elections, all 4 won (Reagan and Clinton twice). Why did he not mention Clinton had an 11 points national lead 21 days before election day? and the week before she had a 4-6pt lead in most polls, because it doesn't sell well to the youtube viewers who go out of their way to the watch the channel, given she lost with a sizeable lead really, like newspapers, you don't pick up the Guardian to read Pro Tory stories and you don't read the Telegraph to because you want to hear good things about Starner.

Also the swing states, the polls in 2016 concluded afterwards they got it wrong for 3 fundamental reasons,

1. The Don't knows swung towards Trump, i.e. the people who did not want to admit they were going to vote for him.
2. Turnout for Trumps was higher than expected (again did not want to admit to vote for him).
3. Underestimated his support in the rust belt states.

I think polls could be making the same mistake again, 4 years on and Trump is still seen and projected as prejudiced/racist by the left wing media, in fact even more so given all the comments he has subsequently made, this makes it more difficult for people to admit to going to vote for him, this covers point 1 and 2 really. Biden leading in rust belt state, are they making the same mistake again underestimating his support.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 12:07 AM BST
she won the popular vote obviously, but failed ultimately.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 12:13 AM BST
this was the poll that gave her an 11 pt lead 3 weeks to go

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/16/clinton-holds-11-point-national-lead-over-trump-nbcwsj-poll.html

“Donald Trump’s chances of winning this election have faded,” says Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates, which conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his firm Public Opinion Strategies.

“This poll is showing the writing on the wall,” Yang adds.

And the Republican McInturff observes that Trump “is in a weaker position than in September,” and that his numbers in the poll don’t align with anyone who has gone on to win a presidential election.
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 2, 2020 2:47 AM BST
In my view, Trump would never have won those 3 swing states by a razor thin margin of 77,000 votes had James Comey not reopened the FBI investigation into Clinton's emails 11 days before the election. That one single action probably persuaded enough potential voters who didn't really like her much anyway to not bother tuning out.

That's not going to happen this year as long as the virus doesn't prevent people voting. There might not be much enthusiasm for Biden, but the motivation to boot Trump out of office is huge and the haters are in the majority.
Report timbuctooth August 2, 2020 6:04 AM BST
A few random debunkings of points from the last few posts;

joe`s been in Washington for nigh on 50 years; The Don`s three and a half years leave him as very much `the new broom`, particularly so as he`s the one fighting the hated deep state/elite/leftie establishment, of which joe is the walking stumbling embodiment.

In general, Fox clearly leans towards The Don, but that is not the same as being as biased as the rest of the msm, with the proof being that Fox has never-Trumpers as regular presenters, numerous leftie talking heads, and they cover all the supposed `bad` stories too, like `collusion`, stormy, Kavanaugh the `gang rapist`, etc, etc. No other msm organisation covers the `other` side anywhere near as much as Fox does, with negative msm coverage regularly being measured at 90+%

Polls schmoles at the best of times, but what undid them so spectacularly in 2016 (and Brexit) was the shy vote. In 2016, The Don asked `what have you got to lose?`, and enough voters gave him the benefit of the doubt, but with msm/sm already portraying him as a joke, people were understandably unkeen on being condescended to by the schmolesters. After four years of not only delivering on his promises but, in many cases, far exceeding them, previously doubtful voters now don`t see it as a leap of faith, they know what they`re getting, and they like it. Throw in four years of pure hatred, bile and downright evil being thrown at him, only the wilfully blind refuse to see that the shy vote this time will be incrementally bigger. Even more so with the months of riots, kneeling, unpatriotic, un-American pandering and appeasement from the lefties.

The popular vote`s an utter irrelevance to all but the whinging lefties

joe`s got more than one bomb heading his way, and each one of them are far more important than comey`s wishy-washy shambolic covering up of hilary`s emails.
Durham`s been properly investigating the attempted coup for ages, it`s a full-on `criminal` investigation, Grand Juries, the lot. This ties joe into the conspiracy, and John Bash`s investigation will just hammer the nails further into criminal, coup-plotting joe. These are likely to be released with maximum beneficial timing, re. the election.
Also, The Don`s building up the evidence against china, making it a part of his platform (USA against china, `us` against `them`) and joe`s got to explain away a lifetime of empowering china`s ability to wreak such havoc. While, of course, hunter was taking billions from those very same chinese, just as daddy was VP, flying them both around the world on Air Force Two, from one lucrative contract with the world`s worst regimes to another.
No doubt we will hear more from other women claiming `rapist!`, and numerous others who have led a traumatised life since their childhood, when joe groped them, smelt their hair and whispered in their ears as they sat on his lap.


All in all, things are about to get a whole lot worse for joe; four more years nailed on, then eight of Ivanka. Or will it be Don Jr?
Report timbuctooth August 2, 2020 6:39 AM BST
Oops, `incrementally bigger` should read `exponentially bigger`.
Report Whisperingdeath August 2, 2020 8:38 AM BST
Someone trying very hard here to to turn make believe into reality, kidding no one!
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 9:45 AM BST

Aug 1, 2020 -- 6:03PM, darren_discombobulates_sports wrote:


The good point he did make is that no two elections are the same, but they are putting their own spin on things quite simply because they are Anti Trump, they are a very biased news organisation in the same way that Fox News are extremely biased, equally so.He reference national polling average, cherry picking a specific day before the election (110 days) and called it his favourite data point, well he would, because it showed the points lead Biden had is huge and only 4 were bigger in previous elections, all 4 won (Reagan and Clinton twice). Why did he not mention Clinton had an 11 points national lead 21 days before election day? and the week before she had a 4-6pt lead in most polls, because it doesn't sell well to the youtube viewers who go out of their way to the watch the channel, given she lost with a sizeable lead really, like newspapers, you don't pick up the Guardian to read Pro Tory stories and you don't read the Telegraph to because you want to hear good things about Starner.Also the swing states, the polls in 2016 concluded afterwards they got it wrong for 3 fundamental reasons,1. The Don't knows swung towards Trump, i.e. the people who did not want to admit they were going to vote for him.2. Turnout for Trumps was higher than expected (again did not want to admit to vote for him). 3. Underestimated his support in the rust belt states.I think polls could be making the same mistake again, 4 years on and Trump is still seen and projected as prejudiced/racist by the left wing media, in fact even more so given all the comments he has subsequently made, this makes it more difficult for people to admit to going to vote for him, this covers point 1 and 2 really. Biden leading in rust belt state, are they making the same mistake again underestimating his support.


Darren, they are comparing the situation at this time ie 100 days or so before the event regarding Hillary and Biden. The polls they quote are correct.

Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 9:50 AM BST
Darren I believe you're talking rubbish I'm afraid.

The +1.1 was a bit of an exaggeration perhaps, but at the end of the day the video was made this July and in July 2016 Clinton's lead over Trump in the polls was small all throughout that month. What do you want him to do? Fast forward to August or October 2016 when Clinton's lead is bigger - on RCP she never had an 11 point average polling lead? He is obviously going to compare the same day from 2016 to this day in 2020, that's not biased, it is the logical thing to do. In July 2016, Clinton's lead was never bigger than 4.7 and for the majority of the time within 2-3 points, and Trump even had a lead on the RCP average for days at the end of July. The video is made in July, he is going to compare the same day in July. If he chose to use the 27th July 2016 on RCP and then tried to suggest that Trump was ahead by 1.1 points then you would have to raise eyebrows, but what he is saying is ultimately correct, whether you like it or not.

At the moment we are seeing the national polling average gap between Trump - Biden stay the same. In the past 2 months it's fluctuated between 7-10 points. In 2016 it never reached 10 points (after the nominations were made) and it fluctuated much more with Trump narrowing it right down to equal at a couple of moments.

The polls have adjusted for those weaknesses in 2016. It is not just polls that proves he / Republicans have lost support. Do Trump fans just coincidentally forget the 2018 midterms, when he lost suburban voters in large swathes, along with women? I'm sorry that's not a poll for you to have a go at.

It's this same old argument that Trump fans do not understand as well -  'Even if Trump gets every voter who voted for him in 2016, to vote again in 2020, but doesn't swing a whole host of new voters his way, he loses'. Please tell me what groups of people he is picking up? Polls schmoles whatever, but it is blindingly clear he is behind with independents, women, suburban voters, way down on his 2016 numbers with white voters / non-college degree / seniors. So which ones is he doing well with that weren't there in 2016, to counteract some of these loses in the 2018 ELECTION data.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 9:53 AM BST
Tim you are too far gone. Clutching very very hard there.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 9:57 AM BST
Daniel makes a particularly valid point regarding Trump voters. Trump won by a tiny margin thanks to a lower than expected turnout in rust belt states. If the turnout is up (highly likely) Trump needs to increase his vote. It's not happening right now.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 10:18 AM BST
https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31442537/us-midterns---senate-thoughs?post_id=555401725#555401725#flvWelcomeHeader

Remember, we have already had a huge USA election since 2016 and this is the link to the thread regarding it above.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 10:23 AM BST
Yeah, that huge election is conveniently forgotten about by the Trump brigade, but it is actually more than relevant than 2016 in many ways.

+8/9 Democratic vote margin
Trump losing many groups (suburban voters)
Democrats clawing back ground in areas lost by Clinton

All things which are shown in the polls now.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 10:43 AM BST
what do you think is more important, polling 3 months+ before an election or the week before, maybe I should have simplified it this way to save time, btw I'm no Trump fan!
Democrats said to be chasing the sun belt, traditional republican states that DT may take for granted.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 10:55 AM BST
It's a comparison. He can't compare the night before the election polling in 2016 and July 2020 polling, can he?

I never said polling 3 months before an election was more important than the week before.

Trump has given up on Michigan by the way. He has pulled out of all TV ads there, and I'm not sure DT's team is taking any swing-states for granted, he's not that naive.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 11:06 AM BST
The bottom line is that if Biden doesn't lose to Trump states that Hillary held in 2016 (fairly likely), Biden wins Michigan (looks like it) then Biden would only require say Florida (where he leads in the polls) and he will be President. There are multiple other states where he is also ahead/level in polls but he doesn't even need to win them.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 12:12 PM BST
you have to factor in that with 110 days to go, Trump sacked Parscale as his campaign manager after those polling stats, no doubt blaming him for things like half empty rallies in Oklahoma and brought in Stepien, or should I say Kushner did, he made other changes as well bringing back a couple of top aids from the last election, during that campaign he let go Lewandowski and Manafort when they either had dodgy connections or not doing a good job with fundraising. Point being that when he senses he's losing he reacts rather than keeping faith and being loyal, don't think you can underestimate a change like this, which is why really final polls are more interesting than 110 days to go.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 12:19 PM BST
I understand that polls are more interesting the closer we get to the 3rd November, and that's not for an individual poll's potential accuracy but rather for rolling trends across the board. But that wasn't the point of the video. The video highlighted that this election isn't the same as 2016, and for me Trump's fundamental mistake is that he's forgotten he's the incumbent, and is still playing this election from his 2016 playbook. Therefore, I don't agree with 'point being that when he senses he's losing he reacts'. He's been forced to make a few changes due things going as badly as they possible could in the last 4 months and absolutely anyone would shake a few things up. He's done it very slowly and minimally with regards to the virus response.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 12:20 PM BST
darren, the youtube link is simply a timeline comparison between Trump 2016 and Trump 2020. No one is suggesting that final polls are not more relevant.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 12:24 PM BST
One thing that is highly relevant is that probably a very high percentage of folks will have already made up their mind who they will vote for, I would estimate as high as 90%. There are less undecided voters every day and the polling gap is significant.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 12:25 PM BST
Yeah, it's another aspect which is very very different to 2016. There are much fewer undecided voters. 2016 state polls and even national polls never had Clinton at 50% or above. The majority of Biden polls do.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 12:34 PM BST
This new campaign manager has barely had 3 weeks? they have the power to change public mood, those that have already decided may just well change their minds. Trump did wait far too long to make a change.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 12:35 PM BST
So his senses this time round, were not as good as 4 years ago, still think there is ample time left.
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 2, 2020 12:46 PM BST
Very few people are going to change their minds without something very dramatic occurring. Positions have never been so polarised and entrenched and at the moment Trump is losing.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 1:02 PM BST
they have the power to change public mood, those that have already decided may just well change their minds.

That is clutching at straws. Power to change public mood? There is raging pandemic and a civil rights crisis that they haven't even tried to address. Why are people going to switch to Trump when Americans think those are the two main issues? Those and the fact that the economy has also been handled badly with rushing to re-open it and more and more layoffs.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 1:03 PM BST
People will be starting to vote in a month.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- August 2, 2020 1:10 PM BST
Surely the best a trump campaign can do is to get his vote out.

What does he have to offer a neutral?


Biden campaign has hillary voters to target, and all those that
stayed home, and those that want somebody other than Trump.
Report InsiderTrader August 2, 2020 1:16 PM BST
Posting CNN links as evidence that Trump is finished is a little naive.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 1:34 PM BST
Fox News, A- rated pollster...

Pennsylvania

Biden 50%
Trump 39%

Minnesota

Biden 51%
Trump 38%

Michigan

Biden 49%
Trump 40%

If those polls are biased in favour of Trump from Fox News...
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 1:59 PM BST
I don't hope Trump wins or Biden, just coming at this from a punting point of view and reacting to what's happened, you're dismissing a new campaign manager and also ignoring the key reasons why polls underestimated him last time round, quite simply, they did not want to admit to want to vote for him. There has been no president more polarising than Trump, people could say they were voting for this or that candidate in nearly all elections gone before without the fear of being labelled racist or beaten up, can't with this one.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 2:05 PM BST
No such thing as shy Trump vote.
Report InsiderTrader August 2, 2020 2:09 PM BST
The silent majority who fear posting on social media they are against aims of BLM due to fear of losing their job are highly unlikely to admit to a random pollster calling them up that they support Trump.

That is why 9 and 10 people asked to take part in a US Presidential Poll refuse.
Report Whisperingdeath August 2, 2020 2:25 PM BST
There is still time for things to change. Nothing can be taken for granted. It will only take a small swing in key states for this to reverse. I can't see it myself but until the votes have been cast, counted and the lawyers have been silenced it is not over by a long chalk.

I am enjoying the squirming of Chump lovers though. Beautiful, truly beautiful and I can't wait till they claim the postal votes were fraudy and Chump won fair and square!
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:29 PM BST
Insider Trader loves polls more than anybody I reckon.

If you can, ignore polls for a second and answer me these questions, please...

1) Is the 2018 midterm election result where Democrats were ahead in voter numbers by 8-9% significant? If so why, or why not?
2) Do you think Trump has lost any voters from 2016? If so, which groups (demographics) have swayed away from him?
3) Can Trump win the election if he solely holds on to his support from 2016, or does he need more support to win this time around? If he does need more support, which groups of people (demographics) can he, and will he pick up?
4) Trump has the 'silent majority' according to you. Has this 'silent majority' grown from 2016? If yes, who are they and why? If not, is it enough to win?

If you don't mind.
Report Whisperingdeath August 2, 2020 2:31 PM BST
This is not a debate Dan
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:32 PM BST
What's not a debate?

This is a betting forum. I think debating one's opinions and subsequent markets is exactly what it's about.

I am struggling to hear much coherent reasoning behind Trump backers or fans.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:34 PM BST
I honestly want to hear logical reasoning from Trump backers. Not just angry waffle or dismissive posts. It can help shape my own views, thus helping me form accurate opinions, as opposed to my own subconscious bias.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 2:36 PM BST
Btw, the thread header should be changed to it's correct form which is...

Why does the market still NOT believe the pollsters ?
Report Jack Bauer '24' August 2, 2020 2:38 PM BST
People on the right were backing Le Pen at short prices in the last French election thinking there was a shy vote and silent majority not showing up in the polls. The reality was that there wasn't and she had no chance and was easily defeated.

Trump has a better chance than her due to the ridiculous Electoral College system and the higher levels of corruption in US elections but I think the shy vote is being overestimated again.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:38 PM BST
If I were a democrat in rural Texas or Montana I'd perhaps be a 'shy voter' too.
Report Whisperingdeath August 2, 2020 2:40 PM BST
I honestly want to hear logical reasoning from Trump backers. Not just angry waffle or dismissive posts

Bob Hope and Slim just left town Son!
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:42 PM BST
Why is it too much to ask a Trump backer a few questions of interest?

He sounds like an intelligent chap.
Report Whisperingdeath August 2, 2020 2:46 PM BST
Because they aren't any logical arguments for supporting the idiot!
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:49 PM BST
Supporting I'd agree with you. Backing, maybe there are? He could win and he's odds against.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:50 PM BST
I just can't see them myself and I haven't heard them say anything which has made me re-think yet.

I'm still waiting for that moment. Maybe they want to keep all the secrets to themselves, or maybe they are backing him purely because they support him, which would obviously not be a good ploy.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 2:54 PM BST

Aug 2, 2020 -- 8:50AM, DanielKoellerer wrote:


I just can't see them myself and I haven't heard them say anything which has made me re-think yet. I'm still waiting for that moment. Maybe they want to keep all the secrets to themselves, or maybe they are backing him purely because they support him, which would obviously not be a good ploy.


It would be a completely brain dead ploy.

Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 2:57 PM BST
PP are those state fox news polls today, or older ones?
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 2, 2020 3:00 PM BST
have you heard of engagious, they have carried out 17 focus groups in 7 swing states in the last few months, the people questioned in these swings states were people who went from Romney to Clinton or/and from Obama to Trump in the past, nearly all of them said they would be voting for Trump as they believed Biden was not capable of running the country.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 3:06 PM BST
Yes, heard of that. I think the majority of undecided voters at this stage probably will end up voting for Trump. If they are undecided after his efforts on the protests, virus, and everything else then they are really Trump supporters? Or really really dislike Biden.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 3:07 PM BST

Aug 2, 2020 -- 8:57AM, DanielKoellerer wrote:


PP are those state fox news polls today, or older ones?


They were taken in the dates 18th-20th July.

Report Jack Bauer '24' August 2, 2020 3:11 PM BST
The guy who runs Engagious was interviewed on CNN yesterday. The problem with his analysis is that there a fewer swing voters than ever this year so their influence will not be as great as in the past.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 3:25 PM BST

Aug 2, 2020 -- 9:11AM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


The guy who runs Engagious was interviewed on CNN yesterday. The problem with his analysis is that there a fewer swing voters than ever this year so their influence will not be as great as in the past.


Yep. Let's take a typical swing state eg Michigan. Right now the 538 average for each candidate based on polls from March till today is..

Biden 49.7%
Trump 41.6%

So that is 91.3% accounted for. Now add in the Libertarian Party, Independents and Green Party vote which usually comes in at around 5% total and that takes you to say 96% accounted for. That leaves 4% undecided.

Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 3:31 PM BST
Yeah that's the issue. Even if the majority of these swing undecided voters go for Trump (we can assume they will) it may only be worth a few % in a lot of these states. It's the reason he needs to close these 8-10% poll differences to 2-4%. That's what he did in 2016 with Clinton, he narrowed the gap in the last month and a lot of undecided voters broke for him - thus giving him those
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 3:35 PM BST
Particularly folks that changed their mind last minute and didn't vote for independent Gary Johnson or switched because of the investigation into Hillary emails.
Report InsiderTrader August 2, 2020 3:36 PM BST
All the 2016 theories as to why Trump CANNOT win and the poll are correct being trotted out again.

Its a bit like socialism. Whenever new people get involved with no knowledge of history they believe it is a great idea.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 3:45 PM BST
New poll today in Georgia..

Biden 46%
Trump 45%

Georgia isn't even a target seat for Biden.
Report InsiderTrader August 2, 2020 4:08 PM BST
Meaningless.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 4:14 PM BST

Aug 2, 2020 -- 8:42AM, DanielKoellerer wrote:


Why is it too much to ask a Trump backer a few questions of interest?He sounds like an intelligent chap.


Insider Trader? You are mistaken.

Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 4:27 PM BST
If you can, ignore polls for a second and answer me these questions, please...

1) Is the 2018 midterm election result where Democrats were ahead in voter numbers by 8-9% significant? If so why, or why not?
2) Do you think Trump has lost any voters from 2016? If so, which groups (demographics) have swayed away from him?
3) Can Trump win the election if he solely holds on to his support from 2016, or does he need more support to win this time around? If he does need more support, which groups of people (demographics) can he, and will he pick up?
4) Trump has the 'silent majority' according to you. Has this 'silent majority' grown from 2016? If yes, who are they and why? If not, is it enough to win?

Don't want to?
Report InsiderTrader August 2, 2020 4:42 PM BST
Daniel we had all these sorts of questions in 2016.

In answer to the OP from 2016 the markets do largely not believe the polls anymore.

That explains why Trump was 5.0 back then and only 2.8 now despite the 'polls' have Biden doing as well or better than Clinton and all the points you make Daniel.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 4:43 PM BST
Can you answer them now?
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 4:44 PM BST
They are not to do with polls. Poll questions are deliberately excluded.
Report InsiderTrader August 2, 2020 4:50 PM BST
I am not going to go through every question on a thread about polling accuracy.

I could present the same to you about Biden. Who is going to support someone who did not know where they were the other day when he did a speech?
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 4:55 PM BST
Avoiding the questions. How pathetic. I'll interpret that as;

1) Yes, it's significant but I don't have a counter-argument.
2) Yes, he has, as shown in the midterm elections.
3) Yes, he needs more support, as Biden isn't as unpopular as Clinton, but I don't know if he's picking up any groups because it's difficult to see certain demographics who supported Clinton not support Biden.
4) I have no idea. I keep making this phrase 'silent majority' up because Trump tweets about it.

So I conclude that you are backing him purely because you 'support him'. I will cease communication now.
Report politicspunter August 2, 2020 4:58 PM BST
Now Daniel, you should block the timewasting clown as I did long ago.
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 5:03 PM BST
Yes, that's two clowns who are just Trump fans and betting on him because 'they want him to win' - Tim nice but dim and I.T.
Report dave1357 August 2, 2020 6:44 PM BST
hold on a minute - timmeh isn't "nice"
Report DanielKoellerer August 2, 2020 6:46 PM BST
Laugh
Report Whisperingdeath August 3, 2020 10:19 AM BST
I think the polls were reasonably accurate in the lead time to the election.

Many people changed their voting intentions very late and the Comey move on Clinton probably tilted the balance imho. Voters around the World were fed up with Politicians and they showed it in the Election.
Report politicspunter August 3, 2020 10:25 AM BST
The 2016 USA Presidential national vote and every state apart from Wisconsin were within the margin of error.
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