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Meadow X1
08 Jan 15 14:15
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Date Joined: 07 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 2,733 | Blogger: Meadow X1's blog
Hi,

I have been following the betfair politics thread for some time.  I feel I would be correct in suggesting that most folks take a deep breath and calm down a wee bit.

I am hoping to contribute to any discussions and wish to clarify my "status".


I come from the West coast of Scotland (Ayrshire).  My father was a miner for forty five years (died 1990) and was a lifelong Labour supporter and union representative (NACODS).

I am an SNP supporter and voted yes in the recent referendum on Scottish independence.  A referendum, I hasten to add that was welcomed by virtually all folks I know for the very large democratic turnout and the contribution made to the debate by all 16 and 17 year olds that were allowed to vote for the first time.

I am not anyone's "alias" and find it bizarre that it could be suggested that folks post under multiple names.

I do wish to contribute posts to all topics but mainly Scottish ones

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By:
Dotchinite
When: 08 Jan 15 14:19
Hello

Do you think that although the referendum was lost last year it will still happen within the next decade. Personally I think its a certainty.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 08 Jan 15 14:31
I feel that another referendum in the future is inevitable.  When that happens or the result is anyone's guess. 

I would speculate that the result of the Westminster election this year will have a direct bearing on the timing of any possible future Scottish independence referendum.

From polling information...(this is the site I use)...

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

It would appear that there is some chance that the SNP could hold the balance of power.  If they do, which is far from clear, a future referendum is likely to come sooner rather than later.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 08 Jan 15 14:57
I think the SNP will win a clear majority of the seats in Scotland this year and that has to create further momentum. The only thing im not sure on is whether holding the balance of power has any meaningful effect since they would never support the Tories and I cant imagine Labour wanting to agree to another referendum just to gain support in the short term since an independent Scotland screws Labour badly. I think Labour would rather try to rule with a minority.

I just think that once the SNP wins all these seats they will become unstoppable and I cannot see them losing a further referendum. Its just a question of how soon they can force one. It may be the next Tory Govt will be happy to oblige.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 29 Jan 15 17:09
Thought it would be of interest to regularly resurrect this post as voting intentions in Scotland could have a direct bearing on Westminster control.

Having closely followed recent polls I feel it is fairly reasonable to suggest that SNP could have an important contribution to make in a future Westminster parliament.

I am particularly interested in prospective voters in Scotland that, through opinion polls, either refuse to declare (or simply don't know) a voting preference.

I suspect that a high percentage of them could be Conservative voters (who are notoriously loath and secretive to reveal their voting intentions).

This "unknown" voting group could be vital if it is a close call, not so much if they will have a bearing on selecting Conservative MP's but deciding the overall breakdown of Snp/ Labour/ Lib Dem Mp's.

In my opinion other parties don't count in Scotland.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 30 Jan 15 09:04
For a Federal Union myself

I spoilt my ballot paper an wrote F.U.(federal union)hope they guessed

The Smith Commision has been a massive disappointment

Labour/LIBDEMS calling this HomeRule is an insult to all Scots

I'm voting SNP westminster elections for certain change
By:
gus
When: 30 Jan 15 12:42
Interestingly, neither the Torygraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11374181/General-Election-2015-latest-poll-tracker.html

nor the New Statesman:

http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

see fit to so much as mention the SNP in their 'polls of polls', but in fact, the SNP are widely expected to win somewhere between 22 and 44  seats (almost all at the expense of Labour), probably more than UKIP, the Greens and the LibDums put together:

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/28/election-polls-point-to-tory-labour-tie-and-three-party-alliance

if the polls are correct, then the the distribution of seats at Westminster come May 8th is going to be one helluva shock to a lot of English newspaper readers.
By:
pawras
When: 30 Jan 15 12:54
I remember , with certain glee , the 1992 election and the much egg on face for labour after being convinced they were going to win it and were backed up by the polls.

It just shows you never really know until the day.

But I agree this year is likely to be an interesting year in politics.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 31 Jan 15 11:38
herald

Labour secret weapon

Gordon Brown

Vow 11

wtf
By:
CJ70
When: 31 Jan 15 20:26
I'm eagerly awaiting Ashcroft's Scottish sample due this week. From there we should be able to see how much sh*t Labour are actually in, or if it'll be a case of same as.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 01 Feb 15 10:35
are Ashcroft polls accurate,he seamed to get referendum,euro elections wrong
By:
Meadow X1
When: 01 Feb 15 10:43
I am not sure how accurate the Ashcroft polls will be.  It is after all only one poll but does focus more on constituencies.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-says-late-swing-to-labour-will-avert-cull-of-scottish-mps-in-may.117423937

I was reading this report about Jim Murphy's claims that there will be a dramatic late swing to Labour in Scotland. Have a look through all the comments at the bottom and let me know when you find someone who agrees with him.
By:
CJ70
When: 01 Feb 15 11:49
We wont be able to tell how accurate Ashcroft constituency polling is until it's put to the test at the election. The by-election polling has been reasonable but then again I'm not sure by-election polls mean anything to GE polls.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 02 Feb 15 12:51
I have niggling doubts about the accuracy of recent Ashcroft polls.

His poll conducted 9-11 Jan has Con on 34% and Labour on 28%.

His poll conducted 16-18 Jan has Con on 29% and Labour 28%.

Both of the above are considerably out of line with others conducted at the same time.

The one that most concerns me personally is the most recent one conducted 22-25 Jan where he has the SNP down at 3% compared to 5% with others comparable.

If he is using that 3% figure as a basis for his imminent Scotland constituency polling, how reliable can it be?
By:
Meadow X1
When: 03 Feb 15 17:42
One thing that folks should consider strongly in voting intentions for Scotland..

If the potential voter has voted for SNP in the referendum for independence (September 2014) they will vote for the SNP in May 2015 for the general election.

That is showing up very strongly in the opinion polls.
By:
treetop
When: 03 Feb 15 19:39
What happened after the last referendum in Scotland ? As I recall,only vaguely I admit, the SNP vote went downwards and I do wonder if the 62% that didn't vote on sentiment may not be so strongly in favour of SNP at Westminster.
By:
gus
When: 03 Feb 15 20:15
Latest YouGov/Times poll out today puts support for the SNP (amongst Scottish voters surveyed) at 48% ... up 1 point since December 2014:

"SNP has retained its lead, on 48% in February (up 1% from December). Labour remains at 27%, the same as December and October, but down considerably from its pre-referendum lead in June of 8 (39% to the SNP’s 31%). The results mean Labour could lose up to 30 seats in Scotland"

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/03/scotland-snp-lead-21/
By:
xmoneyx
When: 04 Feb 15 01:17
Ashcroft


21% swing labour to SNPCrazy

Laour are fcuked Plain
By:
cryoftruth
When: 04 Feb 15 03:12
This says a lot about the independence debate and why it won't go away.

The financial crash, cost of living crisis etc has had political consequences. In England it has seen a growth in UKIP support, a culture of unpleasant "blame immigrants for everything" (rampant on this forum of course) and from the Government a prolonged attack on the welfare state. In Scotland it has seen a move from New Labour towards more civilised "caring" policies of the SNP.

The people of Scotland have created, in Westminster terms, a virtual Tory free zone, and UKIP are nothing like as popular.

A Tory/UKIP coalition ruling Scotland will be likely to see another referendum.
By:
pawras
When: 04 Feb 15 09:06
so all the socialists can f off to scotland, great !Happy

see map for detail for how most of england isn't interested in socialist bullsh&t
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

making your little bleating cries about caring and fairness but in the end that's just your own opinion not hard facts
By:
CJ70
When: 04 Feb 15 18:20
Can't post from the office for some reason.

Will have to look at these in depth but the first thing that is abundantly clear is that the Lib Dem's are being cleared out. There's no residual support for the sitting member as they'd have hoped.

As for Labour a lost of those figures are just outside the MOE, so it only takes a few percent to return home in the middle of a GE campaign and Labour will save a good few of those they are projected to lose. At this rate Wendy is going to be the best known Alexander in Scottish politics again.
By:
gus
When: 04 Feb 15 19:33
we used to be quite proud to have less Tory MPs up here  than we have Giant Pandas.

Pretty soon we'll have as many Labour MPs as woolly mammoths Happy
By:
cryoftruth
When: 04 Feb 15 19:40
Not so sure about that gus. The labour vote has remained remarkably strong in the face of the years of Tony Blair, the labour commitment to Trident and cuts. Maybe the opinion polls are right just now, but when it actually comes to it the West Coast vote may yet swing back to labour.

Hope not though.

Mind you the election of Jim Murphy was a bit of a gift for SNP. He is a total chameleon, a Blairite and a pro nuke right winger.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 05 Feb 15 14:41
Looking through the Ashcroft Scottish constituency poll...

It's very consistent. A high turnout is probable.

SNP- Gaining large vote share from roughly half Labour/half LibDem.

Labour- Losing heavy vote share to SNP and to a much lesser extent the Scottish Green party.

LibDem- Vote share collapsing, mostly to SNP.

Conservative- Vote share down, but not seriously.

Would like to see similar constituency polls in areas that voted for a majority no in the Scottish independence referendum.

Tactical voting from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats could be crucial.  If previous Con and LibDem voters are confident an SNP vote will keep Labour out, it is increasingly likely on polling info so far.
By:
breadnbutter
When: 05 Feb 15 20:30
Could one of you Tartan dreamers explain what the implications of a YES would have been in light of the Current Oil price ?

Their figures were wildly wrong  and their fantasy economics were based on wholly inaccurate assumptions of the price of Oil .

As noone have offered any real answers perhaps one of the SNP's blind legion of Utopian dreamers ,like yourself Meadow could offer to explain how the shortfall would have been made up ? and what services would have been cut as a result of SNP economic policies based on oil price and demand .

Also as the price drops below $70 a hell of a lot of the north sea oil becomes economically unviable to extract .
what would the hard economic truth for the people of Scotland be right now if the vote had been yes ?

how much behind the eightball would we be and what would this mean  for the ordinary working folk of Scotland , higher taxes ? higher inflation ? reduced wages  through mass immigration which would further  reduce employment  opportunities .

Would an open door immigration policy have  been one of the only options along with rapid expansion of the ecological disaster that is the fish farming industry ?The wild Salmon are in rapid decline with the west coast now devoid of this iconic fish

also in light of the instability within  the Eurozone and further uncertainty by the day where exactly does the SNP's iScotland's  future dreams now  lie?
have they even formulted plans x-y and z yet ,is there another white paper due Laugh

Once we get going with these i have a few more but lets get real here Meadow .

We need to hold these jokers and chancers to account for leading the blind to the cliff edge .

The NO voters saved Scotland  and its about time we had some answers .

cheers BnB
By:
gus
When: 05 Feb 15 21:00
what would the hard economic truth for the people of Scotland be right now if the vote had been yes ?

The hard economic truth right now would be that since, even with a 'Yes' vote, the earliest date for independence was 24 March 2016, so right now Scotland would still be part of the UK.

The soft economic truth is that 12 months ago oil was trading at $115, so no-one knows what price it will be trading at in March 2016, but, as a finite resource, it would be a bit surprising if it's price wasn't higher than it is today.
By:
pawras
When: 05 Feb 15 21:03
The Nats would expect the English to pay for their fkups of course.

I almost wish they had voted yes, no pound and sh&t oil price!
Probably would have soon picked up a nice holiday cottage in the western isles for some neeps and tatties with a bit of square sausage thrown in to sweeten the deal Laugh
By:
gus
When: 05 Feb 15 21:15
The Nats would expect the English to pay for their fkups of course.

not unreasonably, since we've been paying for Westminster fkups ever since the Thatcher regime, but I rather got the impression, seeing massed ranks of Tory, Labour and LibDums begging us on their knees to stay that you all preferred the status quo .
By:
pawras
When: 05 Feb 15 21:36
Yeah right , not with the Barnett formula.
You'd get nowt matey. No pound/economic link with us bailing out the socialist dystopia that’s for sure.
The only worthwhile card you had was the oil and no look what's happened.

But that doesn't matter cos I had my fun with all that in on here on the run up to the referendum and made a few quid backing the NO vote into the bargain LaughLaugh

Dunno wots up with our politicians , most people I know view the jocks with complete indifference. Just 10% of the population after all.

Anyway I'll bide my time, once wee eck's protégé has killed the property market up there via all the socialist bullsh&t they’d like to implement I’ll get that wee place on Mull or Skye I’ve always fancied.
But in a way I dunno cos if you couldn’t dip your hands in the English pocket and had to pay for everything yourselves there might be a bit of a change of heart.
Like most I’m pretty indifferent to you lot and will just watch it unfold.
By:
breadnbutter
When: 05 Feb 15 21:53
no-one knows what price it will be trading at in March 2016

Thats not what the SNP told the Blind at the edge of the cliff .

"a million to every one of ye ,surplus in oil fund just like norway ,ritches beyhond your wildest dreams ...."

anyway you failed to answer the questions in my post and i will keep asking them until one of you do ,your trying to blame the fall in oil for the prediction forcast failures ..THATS JUST WRONG

thats how it works ,you cant blame oil price for failed snp predictions ,you have to say SNP predictions were completely wrong ..END OF .
By:
breadnbutter
When: 05 Feb 15 21:54
*thats not how it works
By:
gus
When: 05 Feb 15 22:42
you asked:

what would the hard economic truth for the people of Scotland be right now if the vote had been yes ?

i anwered:

The hard economic truth right now would be that since, even with a 'Yes' vote, the earliest date for independence was 24 March 2016, so right now Scotland would still be part of the UK.

if you don't like answers, don't ask questions.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 05 Feb 15 23:42
BnB,

All points taken and I hear you loud and clear.

However, I would rather concentrate on the present and future rather than "what if" had happened in the past.

As I say, I am happy to acknowledge valid points that you make but equally you have to consider how Scottish voters intentions are focused now rather than in the past.
By:
paddletoe
When: 05 Feb 15 23:51
Welcome to the forum Meadow X1. I am surprised not enough is made of the possible impact a swing in seats from labour to the snp in Scotland might have in the upcoming westminster election where a coalition might have to made to form a government and the snp could be the third largest party.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 05 Feb 15 23:54
Oh, just to add...

Pawras,

Don't try going to Iona via Mull in the winter!

I trekked up to Oban, spent the night at a lovely b and b, caught the first ferry to Mull then bus to Fionnport for the Iona ferry. The waves were coming over the boat.  The guy at the terminal says "don't worry, we will get you over but you might not get back till next week".  I finished up hitchhiking four hours frozen via breadlorries, postvans and visiting nurses back to the port for Oban.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 05 Feb 15 23:56
Thanks Paddletoe,

Really hoping we can keep this thread topical and cordial.
By:
treetop
When: 06 Feb 15 00:26
It intrigues me how much noise comes from the SNP who failed to get a YES vote despite manipulating the voting to get teenagers to vote their way on sentiment. What are the voting intentions of the majority who clearly  hate much of what the SNP stand for ?
By:
breadnbutter
When: 06 Feb 15 00:56
a never asked you anything gus ,would rather attempt to nail jelly to the wall than get involved in a debate with yer good sel gus .

Totally agree Meadow ,lets keep it cordial and relevant .

how much sh!t would we be in if we had voted yes ?      mega /whole lot / loads /just a bit ?
By:
pawras
When: 06 Feb 15 09:13
MeadowX - I haven't been to Iona , but I did rent a cottage for a while down near Fionnport, most times I've been there was up in Tobermory in the Western Isles Hotel. I've travelled around the island a bit and thought Calgary Bay was very nice.
But I've never bothered going until March onwards though.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 06 Feb 15 10:00
bnb,

If the majority of voters in Scotland had chosen independence in the referendum, Scotland would not have become independent until 2016, therefore we would be in exactly the same situation as we are today.

I am more than happy to have a stab at predicting the 2015 general election results, but can't claim to have a crystal ball to predict a hypothetical question.
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