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I win every time!
31 Oct 12 10:58
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Date Joined: 13 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 846 | Blogger: I win every time!'s blog
Of course I could be wrong. I NEVER post predictions like this. I studdied US Politics for my degree back in the early 90's. It takes a lot to remove an incumbant President and to my mind the uncertain nature of the US' place in the world order plays into Obamas hands rather than against. Polls are polls but when it comes to actually ticking the box (or punching the Chad lol) on Polling day, what you've said you 'might' do is influenced by feelings and thoughts that might not have been at the forefront of your mind when asked the sterile voting intention question a week or two earlier.

I don't bet big on here. I see a bet I like and take it. This is my max bet (a lowly £100). 1.4 on Obama is a steal. 1.4 on Obama with the Sandy factor is like buying money. I could be wrong. I just don't think so.

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Replies: 32
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 11:40
Of course I could be wrong.

That's a distinct possibility if the title of your thread is anything to go by, it should be ''shoo-in''
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 31 Oct 12 11:42
I agree with the reasoning. Events like Sandy tend to have some beneficial effect for an incumbent unless they make a complete hash of things. Romney is fighting an uphill battle.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 31 Oct 12 11:47
1.4 In race being called to close to call, rather you than me.

There is no such thing as free money either.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 12:04
America’s going the same way as the UK with too many people voting for free stuff,
America has an expanding mass of the population who are natural Democrat voters.
The under classes will always vote for the left.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 12:07
They've got too many Hispanics now.
The Republicans are on the way out, if they win this one they won't win many more.
By:
nellie1970
When: 31 Oct 12 12:11
if the republicans cannot beat obama with his record this time i think they could be in trouble
By:
Burt06
When: 31 Oct 12 12:12
theyre both counts
By:
Java
When: 31 Oct 12 12:27
Crippen is spot on.  The selfish, parasitical, ignorant voter is multiplying on both sides of the atlantic.

This is the phenomenen that leads Milliband to label reducing tax from 50% to 45% as "writing a cheque" to the productive, while he claims that the Tories are "taking money away" from the idle who don't contribute when they attempt to reduce our hidious welfare burden.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 31 Oct 12 12:31
A vote 4 Obama or Romney is a choice between a lesser of 2 evils. Everybody loses when u vote for an evil. Lesser or greater, evil is evil
By:
boris-the-animal
When: 31 Oct 12 13:11
Dr Crippen
How can you say the republicans are on the way out when they are presently so dominant in most of the elected positions? The republicans currently hold 29 governorships while the democrats have only 20. The republicans are just as dominant in state legislators where the hold about 30 of the states lower and upper houses when the democrats hold less than 20! Same thing with the US congress the republicans have the upper hand and it is projected the republicans will also take the senate!!! For the presidency it is still just too close to call. So where are those people voting for free stuff when by all sandards the republicans are winning?

Even in democratic heartlands like New York and California we have seen republicans like Giuliani and Schwatzenegger get elected! The democrats cannot also always count on latino/minority votes since we have the likes of Marco Rubio, Jindal etc will take away alot of those and upwardly mobile minorities tend to vote republicans as well. So how are they on the way out?Confused
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 15:33
I listened to a programme on the radio last week where they spelled out the figures.
The types of voters who support the Democrats are multiplying to such an extent that soon the Republicans simply won't have enough share of the vote to win.

Not this election maybe, but the writing is on the wall.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 31 Oct 12 15:42
You forget one thing. They are politicians. They don't do principle. If that is where the votes are then the Republicans will move there.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 15:53
Yes EO that's what the Tories have done over here, hence the rise of UKIP.
By:
I win every time!
When: 31 Oct 12 17:20
First of all UKIP voters are certainly ignorant. Eurosceptics are mislead by prejudice and think that being governed from Westminster is somehow preferable to being governed from Brussels / Berlin. It's like saying I'd rather be drown than burnt to death. Dr Crippin - don't like the implication of 'too many Hispanics' but if your point is that the underclass is forming a larger demographic then you're correct. I rather see this, and global elections leaning to the left in the following one to two decades following the apparent failure of Capitalism and the reaction to that. I'm not getting into the whole debate here - but suffice to say that globalisation and the difficulties that presents to Sovereign, nation state governments have found with the regulation of multinationals led to the mess we're in. I see a re-trenchement of socialist values (not before time) before someone works out how to control the market. These times are a changin.
By:
Java
When: 31 Oct 12 17:39
"First of all UKIP voters are certainly ignorant. Eurosceptics are mislead by prejudice and think that being governed from Westminster is somehow preferable to being governed from Brussels / Berlin."

This, quite frankly, is the post of an imbecile.

Have you ever stopped to consider that UKIP supporters simply think that having one layer of government is preferable to two?

"following the apparent failure of Capitalism"

Eh?  You know bailing out failing companies isn't capitalist right?  And neither is the ghastly behaviour of European governments constantly running deficits to fund large government.
By:
boris-the-animal
When: 31 Oct 12 17:59
Dr Crippen

The program you listened to is probably some propaganda to scare more republicans to get to vote! It is true the Latino population is rapidly increasing but most of them cannot or tend not to vote. The fact is only 2 years after George Bush and the collapse of Lehman Bros and capitalism, the Americans were asking for more Republicans in the 2010 mid-term elections. The fact that Obama tried to provide universal healthcare to all Americans made him so unpopular he received a shellacking in the elections!!!

The Bible belts used to be a Democrat stronghold before the 60s but the republicans turned them around! I don't see any reason why wealthier Latinos, Asians and African Americans cannot be turned into republican voters since they tend to be very socially conservative even though they currrently vote democrats.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 18:32
don't like the implication of 'too many Hispanics

Wash my mouth out with soap and water ffs.


I for one certainly prefer to be governed from Westminster than from Brussels.

How can capitalism have failed when it has and still is funding the welfare state?
Without capitalism we could never have afforded a welfare state like we have now.

The mess we're in is the result of spending more than we earn.
The unemployment is a result of free world markets.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 18:34
Boris, universal healthcare?

Strange that when unemployed Americans are reluctant to take jobs if they have a medical condition due to them losing their free healthcare.

They must have a pretty good propaganda machine going over there.
By:
I win every time!
When: 31 Oct 12 22:55
Well, there are certainly a lot of angry people on here, aren't there? (Crippen / Java). I suggest (Java) you learn how to debate using arguement rather than insult. Using phrases such as 'the arguement of an imbecile' really doesn't show you in a good light. In fact it mearly suggests you struggle to argue on fact rather than prejudice.

Hey Crip, tell me, pragmatically, how being governed from Westminster as opposed to Brussels actually, materially, affect you. We can have a debate about representation if you like (though democracy isn't all it's cracked up to be), but what's the difference between being one voice in 60 million, or one voice in 300 million. Do you really think you're heard either way?
By:
I win every time!
When: 31 Oct 12 22:57
Boris - good post btw
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 31 Oct 12 23:24
I win every time!     31 Oct 12 21:55 
Well, there are certainly a lot of angry people on here, aren't there? (Crippen / Java). I suggest (Java) you learn how to debate using arguement rather than insult. Using phrases such as 'the arguement of an imbecile' really doesn't show you in a good light. In fact it mearly suggests you struggle to argue on fact rather than prejudice.


First of all UKIP voters are certainly ignorant.

Oh the irony
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 31 Oct 12 23:29
I think the argument that all people on benefits vote for the person who gives them the most is flawed.

Whilst there are some happy on benefits many people who are aspire to more.

People may vote democrat/labour initially because they see them as providing more benefits but ultimately what people want are jobs. If they don't come live people desperate for work will look to others in the hope they may make things improve.

The likelihood is governments will flip flop over forthcoming elections across the western world.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 31 Oct 12 23:29
I think the argument that all people on benefits vote for the person who gives them the most is flawed.

Whilst there are some happy on benefits many people who are aspire to more.

People may vote democrat/labour initially because they see them as providing more benefits but ultimately what people want are jobs. If they don't come live people desperate for work will look to others in the hope they may make things improve.

The likelihood is governments will flip flop over forthcoming elections across the western world.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 31 Oct 12 23:36
how being governed from Westminster as opposed to Brussels actually, materially, affect you.

That's none of your business I win every time.

Your last couple of sentences indicate that you don't think it matters who governs.

I take it you do vote?
By:
Java
When: 01 Nov 12 10:03
"Using phrases such as 'the arguement of an imbecile' really doesn't show you in a good light. In fact it mearly suggests you struggle to argue on fact rather than prejudice."

Sorry - let me me clarify as we seem to have got off on the wrong foot.  I referred to you as an imbecile because your post about UKIP supporters being motivated by a dislike of Spaniards was a complete and utter steaming garbage.  Is that better?
By:
Java
When: 01 Nov 12 10:05
"Hey Crip, tell me, pragmatically, how being governed from Westminster as opposed to Brussels actually, materially, affect you."

Don't you even read?  The point is it isn't an either/or question.  It is having one or both.  The less utterly useless corrupt politicians there are the better.  This is not a question of being heard.  It is a question of stopping parasitical career politicians taking more and more taxpayer cash.
By:
penguins
When: 01 Nov 12 13:51
Hispanics and whatnot aside, back to the OP. 

Yes, Obama will most likely win. Praise be Sandy. She seems to have sealed the deal.

Plus, Romney is an intolerable little prick. 

But it's not free money. If it were, your lowly bet would be less, um, lowly. 

Man up, son.
By:
penguins
When: 01 Nov 12 14:02
And for the Obama naysayers, even Republicans are in love with him now:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83123.html?hp=l1
By:
blackburn1
When: 01 Nov 12 14:18
Shows how phucking stupid people are, a storm blows a few buildings down, Obama goes and has a look and his popularity rises.

Mainly because he'll do what politicians are good at, spend billions more
By:
penguins
When: 01 Nov 12 14:22
You clearly didn't see how dreamy he looked in his windbreaker. Real presidential like.
By:
blackburn1
When: 01 Nov 12 14:25
Laugh
By:
nellie1970
When: 02 Nov 12 12:40
anyone would look dreamy standing next to chris christie
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