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13 Apr 10
19:56
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Date Joined:
28 Aug 01
Oxford East. Nearly won last time. Should win easily through getting more Labour votes from townies, though Greens may win some of their student votes.
Islington South. Nearly won last time. Should win easily.
Durham City. Needs a 3.7% swing. Probably fairly easy.
Norwich South. Needs only a 4% swing but the Greens are making a real push here which makes it hard. Conservatives in with a shout here too. A 4 way marginal so most likely Labour will hang on due to divided anti-Labour vote.
Leicester South. The Sikh Liberal candidate won a 2004 by-election but lost to Labour in 2005. He should regain his seat fairly easily.
Oldham East and Saddleworth. Needs a 5.5% swing. Liberals quite strong in the area so they should win.
Birmingham Hall Green. Needs a 6.2% swing but Respect are making a push here and may divide the anti-Labour vote. Conservatives also doing much better in Birmingham these days. Too close to call.
Liverpool Wavertree. Needs a 6.3% swing which should easily be achieved with a very strong campaign here.
Burnley. Needs a 7.4% but a strong candidate makes this a likely Liberal win.
Edinburgh South. Needs only a 0.5% swing. Liberals not doing well at all in Scotland but they should get this low-hanging fruit.
Other seats where the Liberals are making a big push but probably wont quite make it:
Bradford East, Blaydon, Sheffelid Central, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Watford (this should go Con), Derby North (wide open 3 horse race), Streatham, Manchester Gordon, Leyton and Wanstead, Swansea West, Hull North
Seats with big boundary changes:
Hampstead and Kilburn. The boundary changes strongly favour the Liberals to capture this from Labours fading star (Glenda Jackson).
Brent Central. The Boundary Commission abolished Sarah Teathers seat in Brent but she has some chance of winning the new one.
Islington South. Nearly won last time. Should win easily.
Durham City. Needs a 3.7% swing. Probably fairly easy.
Norwich South. Needs only a 4% swing but the Greens are making a real push here which makes it hard. Conservatives in with a shout here too. A 4 way marginal so most likely Labour will hang on due to divided anti-Labour vote.
Leicester South. The Sikh Liberal candidate won a 2004 by-election but lost to Labour in 2005. He should regain his seat fairly easily.
Oldham East and Saddleworth. Needs a 5.5% swing. Liberals quite strong in the area so they should win.
Birmingham Hall Green. Needs a 6.2% swing but Respect are making a push here and may divide the anti-Labour vote. Conservatives also doing much better in Birmingham these days. Too close to call.
Liverpool Wavertree. Needs a 6.3% swing which should easily be achieved with a very strong campaign here.
Burnley. Needs a 7.4% but a strong candidate makes this a likely Liberal win.
Edinburgh South. Needs only a 0.5% swing. Liberals not doing well at all in Scotland but they should get this low-hanging fruit.
Other seats where the Liberals are making a big push but probably wont quite make it:
Bradford East, Blaydon, Sheffelid Central, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Watford (this should go Con), Derby North (wide open 3 horse race), Streatham, Manchester Gordon, Leyton and Wanstead, Swansea West, Hull North
Seats with big boundary changes:
Hampstead and Kilburn. The boundary changes strongly favour the Liberals to capture this from Labours fading star (Glenda Jackson).
Brent Central. The Boundary Commission abolished Sarah Teathers seat in Brent but she has some chance of winning the new one.
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Good stuff GB, I agree with most of your conclusions.
The ones I'm not convinced about are Islington South, Norwich South. Birmingham HG, Edinburgh South and Brent Central.
Of the longer shots, I like Leyton and Wanstead, and wouldn't rule out the neighbouring seat, Walthamstow, either. This is my old manor, and I hear the LDs are eating into the core Labour vote there. I also lived for several years in Hull North, and reckon its well within range. Also, as Mike Smithson advised a few weeks ago, they could spring a big surprise in Luton South. Another longshots is Ashfield (Hoon's seat).
The ones I'm not convinced about are Islington South, Norwich South. Birmingham HG, Edinburgh South and Brent Central.
Of the longer shots, I like Leyton and Wanstead, and wouldn't rule out the neighbouring seat, Walthamstow, either. This is my old manor, and I hear the LDs are eating into the core Labour vote there. I also lived for several years in Hull North, and reckon its well within range. Also, as Mike Smithson advised a few weeks ago, they could spring a big surprise in Luton South. Another longshots is Ashfield (Hoon's seat).
Golfjudge thanks for your reply
It seems we basically agree on every seat except Islington South.
I certainly don't think Sarah Teather will win Brent Central for example, I am just saying she has a decent chance (like 30%). Ok shes a pea-brain who only became an MP due to good fortune, but the Liberal MPs tend to be quite sticky even when their boundaries change,
My thinking in Islington South and Finsbury is that the Liberals nearly won last time.
There are no boundary changes, all major candidates are women.
The Liberal may not be a superstar (shes a humble librarian) but she nearly won last time with a massive swing, one of the best in the country, she seems a decent type and she only has to do slightly better - the ground lies strongly in her favour.
I just cant see any special local factors that mean that the Liberals wont win this easily. Ok theres a minority Liberal council that is not doing a fantastic job, but this is far more than offset by the unpopularity of the national government. Theres a much worse Liberal council in Burnley for example and yet the Liberals seem confident there.
It seems we basically agree on every seat except Islington South.
I certainly don't think Sarah Teather will win Brent Central for example, I am just saying she has a decent chance (like 30%). Ok shes a pea-brain who only became an MP due to good fortune, but the Liberal MPs tend to be quite sticky even when their boundaries change,
My thinking in Islington South and Finsbury is that the Liberals nearly won last time.
There are no boundary changes, all major candidates are women.
The Liberal may not be a superstar (shes a humble librarian) but she nearly won last time with a massive swing, one of the best in the country, she seems a decent type and she only has to do slightly better - the ground lies strongly in her favour.
I just cant see any special local factors that mean that the Liberals wont win this easily. Ok theres a minority Liberal council that is not doing a fantastic job, but this is far more than offset by the unpopularity of the national government. Theres a much worse Liberal council in Burnley for example and yet the Liberals seem confident there.
have my house on labour in birmingham,its rock solid labour
which one, I dont see that sort of money matched, but maybe you have quite a small house
Yes I think you are correct Pandora, it's the favourite although around evens.
Surely your house is worth more than £42.50?
Surely your house is worth more than £42.50?
I need to revisit this now.
I now think Libs can take Oxford East, Islington South and Finsbury, Durham, Norwich South, Leicester South, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Birmingham Hall Green, Liverpool Wavertree, Bradford East, Blaydon, Sheffield Central, Burnley, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Streatham, Manchester Gorton, Holborn and St Pancras, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Leyton and Wanstead,
Birmingham Perry Barr, Brent Central, Hull North, Watford, Derby North, Swansea West and Wrexham.
Even in Scotland Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South, Edinburgh North and Dunfermline West (by-election win) also look to fall.
That's 28 possible wins from Labour. Ok they won't all fall I'm sure, but I now think most of them will.
I now think Libs can take Oxford East, Islington South and Finsbury, Durham, Norwich South, Leicester South, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Birmingham Hall Green, Liverpool Wavertree, Bradford East, Blaydon, Sheffield Central, Burnley, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Streatham, Manchester Gorton, Holborn and St Pancras, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Leyton and Wanstead,
Birmingham Perry Barr, Brent Central, Hull North, Watford, Derby North, Swansea West and Wrexham.
Even in Scotland Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South, Edinburgh North and Dunfermline West (by-election win) also look to fall.
That's 28 possible wins from Labour. Ok they won't all fall I'm sure, but I now think most of them will.
After driving up Stratford rd the other week, i would have thought that Respect must have a good chance in Bham HG. Looks like General Custer has based his wagons at Robin Hood Island, but injun incursions into Shirley are imminent.
GB - don't be surprised if Sarah does well in Brent Central, she's a very tough local campaigner
she will also be playing the 'expenses scandal' card very strongly, since her own record is excellent, and she's up against a Labour MP whose record is distinctly dubious
she will also be playing the 'expenses scandal' card very strongly, since her own record is excellent, and she's up against a Labour MP whose record is distinctly dubious
If Singh Gill takes Leicester South it won't be easily. He has to turn over nearly 4,000 for a start, and the Labour activists are already fired up.
Plenty of moaning in local pubs this week about when the lib dems took over the council.
Plenty of moaning in local pubs this week about when the lib dems took over the council.
I agree with Ghostdog, Lib Dems talk the talk (and Clegg said some good stuff last night) but where they have power in local gov they take a much more right wing line imo.
Thats because when they get into power they find that local Govt hasnt got unlimited money to waste unlike the Government (until now) and so have to behave responsibly. I guess fiscal responsibility is an unknown concept to those on the left.
Shocking revelation - the left struggle with fiscal responsibility :) . Only the Tories are stupid enough to leave the Labour party with a good fiscal position. Labour make sure they properly screw up the economy before they leave office and hope the next regime get the blame for what they inherit.
GB - I reckon there's more than 28 potential gains, (on a great night obviously), if you factor in numerous seats of the right profile where they're starting from third place but with over 20%. I reckon there's up to 50 potential gains off Labour, though expect something closer to 25.
Some examples. Caveat - none of these are tips, but if the current poll rating holds up, they'd be worth a few pennies at big prices.
Luton South, Ilford South, Huddersfield, Dulwich + W Norwood, Southampton Test, Nottingham South, Leeds NE.
Some examples. Caveat - none of these are tips, but if the current poll rating holds up, they'd be worth a few pennies at big prices.
Luton South, Ilford South, Huddersfield, Dulwich + W Norwood, Southampton Test, Nottingham South, Leeds NE.
LIB DEMS WILL NOT WIN BURNLEY
NO CHANCE IN HELL
NO CHANCE IN HELL
Golfjudge, That's useful thanks. What other ones can Libs win? There must be many more.
You may have mentioned some of these already, and I may well have missed a few others.
Bedford, Lewisham West/Penge. Dulwich/W Norwood, Ashfield, Bristol East, Wrexham, Wansbeck.
I don't particularly fancy any of those though - maybe Ashfield. Also we need to go through Tory-held seats where there is still a significant Labour vote to squeeze.
Bedford, Lewisham West/Penge. Dulwich/W Norwood, Ashfield, Bristol East, Wrexham, Wansbeck.
I don't particularly fancy any of those though - maybe Ashfield. Also we need to go through Tory-held seats where there is still a significant Labour vote to squeeze.
I had not considered Bristol East thanks for that one. The others I knew about and some may fall.
There must be more.
There must be more.
Brentford and Isleworth is another good spot. I hadn't considered that one.
The impact of these seats on the result+majority is huge. That seat could clearly be won on 34%, and had been widely assumed as an easy Tory gain.
The impact of these seats on the result+majority is huge. That seat could clearly be won on 34%, and had been widely assumed as an easy Tory gain.
Lib Dems well capable of taking Warrington South - popular local candidate - Incumbent Labour MP retiring - Lib Dems control Warrington council and Tory activists thin on the ground .
Whatever happened to golfjudge? Prolific poster back in day.
I think he got pished off by juvenile behaviour
on golf forum.
on golf forum.
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