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madsimon
04 Jan 10 12:59
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Date Joined: 10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,349 | Blogger: madsimon's blog
think some odds on labour holding on to certian scottish seats are generous so i have backed labour at good odds against in a couple of seats in Edinburgh and got a fancy price on them winning Dundee East against the SNP.

also backed the tories getting less than 4 scottish seats at 2/1 becasue .lets face it, the tories will not favour Scotland (quite rightly) if elected and whther they get 1 or 5 seats in Scotland will not make any difference to overall result,

Have backed labour on the vote percentage handicap gettign 15% start over the tories and giving 7 to the lib dems (bet struck at 7/4) .

i think the tories will get a majority but with possibly a 10-12 point lead and the lib dems will get squeesed outside incmbant areas

As a hunch i have backed the lib dems to beat labour in Oxford East and have laid the BNP and UKIP to win any seats at all.

not done any of the above to huge stakes as i want the tories to win ,its just that the tories are hard to back at curent prices
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Report sfc1976 January 4, 2010 2:06 PM GMT
Backed Tories nearly two yrs ago outright @11/8 and had a few constituency bets...
Cornwall SE Tories @ 5/6
Exeter Lab @ 5/6
Cambourne & Redruth Tories @ 7/4
Gloucester Tories @ 4/7
Eastleigh Tories @ 13/8
Report madsimon January 4, 2010 2:10 PM GMT
you a south West specialist stu?
Report madsimon January 4, 2010 2:10 PM GMT
stc I mean!
Report sfc1976 January 4, 2010 2:15 PM GMT
Well I'm from Hampshire, and have relatives around the southwest so keep track of what's going on locally more than other areas. But it's mainly because there are plenty of seats where there's actually a genuine fight between Cons and Libs, hence slightly more attractive prices.
Report madsimon January 4, 2010 2:19 PM GMT
why do you think labour will hang on in Exeter?
Report blackburn1 January 4, 2010 2:27 PM GMT
I actually think it will be a comfortable majority for the tories. My guess is that in polls at the moment there are plenty like me who have no enthusiasm for the tories but come polling day will cast their vote just to get rid of the lunatic. I'll do it holding my nose though.
Report sfc1976 January 4, 2010 2:29 PM GMT
The Tories share of the vote in Exeter has fallen at every election since 1997, and even in 2005 they received 2739 fewer votes than 1997. There's also a strong Lib vote, which has doubled since 2005, which could switch to Lab if they think theres a chance of the Tories taking the seat. And basically its Tory taget seat number 176, which will be a tough ask.
Report madsimon January 4, 2010 2:31 PM GMT
thanks--in return i will give you a tip from my area -unless the tories get over 400 seats there is no way they will dislodge John Mann from Bassetlaw --he is 5/6 to hold on
Report sfc1976 January 4, 2010 2:32 PM GMT
Plus the usual UKIP problem for the Tories of sucking up 2000-3000 votes which would typically go to them.
Report blackburn1 January 4, 2010 2:35 PM GMT
Yes that backs up my point sfc, I would vote UKIP in anything other than a GE
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