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The white elephant is that the UK will need to cut a lot of spending and a lot of public servant jobs are due for a cull. Labour are likely to prolong this agony for as long as possible, in order to ensure the powerful civil service votes at the next election. The cold hard truth is that we simply can't afford to.
The benefit class of the UK also have a strong core vote, they're not going to bite the hand that feeds them so that is two strong groups of voters which are predominately based in northern inner city areas.
The third block of voters are immigrants to the UK. This is a bit more of a grey area, as IMO immigrants are more likely to be swing voters. However they are often perceived as more friendly towards the Labour/Lib Dems.
David Cameron is trying this 'nice guy' image which may be working on some people but he is going to have difficulty pleasing all the voting groups above as well as your typical conservative voters. I see him winning the election purely on default because the labour party are so dysfunctional.
My constituency is a labour heartland and has been for 22 years (Newcastle upon Tyne Central). I was brainwashed by my parents to vote for Labour for many years until I woke up and smelled the coffee. I may have to give my tactical vote to the lib dems thanks to the marvels of the anti-democratic First Past the Post system.
The benefit class of the UK also have a strong core vote, they're not going to bite the hand that feeds them so that is two strong groups of voters which are predominately based in northern inner city areas.
The third block of voters are immigrants to the UK. This is a bit more of a grey area, as IMO immigrants are more likely to be swing voters. However they are often perceived as more friendly towards the Labour/Lib Dems.
David Cameron is trying this 'nice guy' image which may be working on some people but he is going to have difficulty pleasing all the voting groups above as well as your typical conservative voters. I see him winning the election purely on default because the labour party are so dysfunctional.
My constituency is a labour heartland and has been for 22 years (Newcastle upon Tyne Central). I was brainwashed by my parents to vote for Labour for many years until I woke up and smelled the coffee. I may have to give my tactical vote to the lib dems thanks to the marvels of the anti-democratic First Past the Post system.
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Do you seriously believe that you can pigeon hole people and their likely voting intentions based on whether they are in the public or private sector ? My mother worked in the public sector as an NHS sister, voted Tory and still does. My father worked in the private sector for a millionaire Labour MP from the 1960/70s and he always voted Labour. There will be millions who do the same.
I remember reading that a significant number of trade unionists vote Tory. I am sure within that group you would find a large proportion who work in the public sector. Are we to believe that a building site labourer is going to vote Tory because he works in the private sector or will other considerations affect his voting intentions ?
I remember reading that a significant number of trade unionists vote Tory. I am sure within that group you would find a large proportion who work in the public sector. Are we to believe that a building site labourer is going to vote Tory because he works in the private sector or will other considerations affect his voting intentions ?
The Tories must avoid telling the truth about the state of the finances as if they do people will think they will cut spending and raise taxes and will vote for Gordons low tax and high spending miracle as thats what they want to hear. In many ways we get the Govt we deserve.
Are we to believe that a building site labourer is going to vote Tory because he works in the private sector or will other considerations affect his voting intentions ?
Walter, he will vote for who the Sun tells him
Walter, he will vote for who the Sun tells him
By and large, people vote out of self interest. This explains, for example, why more people vote Lib Dem in local elections, where people believe they will get better local politics, than nationally, where they forsee tax rises.
If you are dependant on the state for your income, either via work or benefits, you are going ot be minded to vote for statist party.
Walter, all such views are generalisations, as is BB's about the Sun. But in psephology, generalisations is all you will get.
If you are dependant on the state for your income, either via work or benefits, you are going ot be minded to vote for statist party.
Walter, all such views are generalisations, as is BB's about the Sun. But in psephology, generalisations is all you will get.
Sib, Walter's parents clearly had strong views as most people do, but approx 20% of votes are up for grabs and, dare I say it, these 20% get their opinions from the Sun, after all the Mail and Mirror never change sides.
Blackburn - In both 1997 and 2001, more Daily Mail readers voted Labour than Tory.
Sib - While I generally agree with your post, I don't think that assumptions about tax have anything to do with why the LDs perform better locally. They do that because local elections tend to revolve around local campaigning, which they are very good at. They don't get squeezed for coverage at that level.
And because, where they are prominent locally, voters recognise they can win the seat in question. The same is true to a lesser extent in marginals where they're competitive. Nationally, many see it as a wasted vote because they know they're not going to form the govt.
If,and its a big if and it will take at least one more election, Labour were to collapse as a coherent party, they will do much, much better.
Sib - While I generally agree with your post, I don't think that assumptions about tax have anything to do with why the LDs perform better locally. They do that because local elections tend to revolve around local campaigning, which they are very good at. They don't get squeezed for coverage at that level.
And because, where they are prominent locally, voters recognise they can win the seat in question. The same is true to a lesser extent in marginals where they're competitive. Nationally, many see it as a wasted vote because they know they're not going to form the govt.
If,and its a big if and it will take at least one more election, Labour were to collapse as a coherent party, they will do much, much better.
Blackburn - In both 1997 and 2001, more Daily Mail readers voted Labour than Tory.
How is that known?
How is that known?
British Electoral Survey, done after every election. By far the most substantial polling analysis out there.
i read the daily mail, its a good paper once you ignore the pro tory propaganda
the_giraffe
I live in Gateshead, and was thinking exactly the same as you earlier this week when I received the latest Lib Dem newspaper, basically saying that it is Labour or them.
The MP has been Labour since 1922, except for 1931-1935 (ironically following those economic problems!) so it is unlikely to change. But, a lot of people I talk to either will not vote at all this time (even though they support Labour generally) or intend to make a protest vote to a minority party.
Funny aside - I was in the pub discussing politics with a guy I know reasonably well, and I told him that I would normally vote tory. He turned to me quietly and said "Is it OK for me to tell the other people in here that?". Tory voters are rare round here!
So there could be a slight opening for a strong runner, and with a good helping of tactical voting from tory voters it could happen.
Unlikely, but it just might. I just find it difficult to see myself voting Lib Dem. It's just not right!
I live in Gateshead, and was thinking exactly the same as you earlier this week when I received the latest Lib Dem newspaper, basically saying that it is Labour or them.
The MP has been Labour since 1922, except for 1931-1935 (ironically following those economic problems!) so it is unlikely to change. But, a lot of people I talk to either will not vote at all this time (even though they support Labour generally) or intend to make a protest vote to a minority party.
Funny aside - I was in the pub discussing politics with a guy I know reasonably well, and I told him that I would normally vote tory. He turned to me quietly and said "Is it OK for me to tell the other people in here that?". Tory voters are rare round here!
So there could be a slight opening for a strong runner, and with a good helping of tactical voting from tory voters it could happen.
Unlikely, but it just might. I just find it difficult to see myself voting Lib Dem. It's just not right!
The benefit class of the UK also have a strong core vote, they're not going to bite the hand that feeds them so that is two strong groups of voters which are predominately based in northern inner city areas
I don't buy that, much more likely that they don't vote at all. I would bet a decent chunk of them will actually miss the fact that there is a general election on. Look at the turnout in glasgow ne for a high profile byelection, one of the most deprived areas there is. 33%, unbelievable.
fwiw, I think the libdems are in trouble with floating voters and their core support after Clegg came out and said he would go with the biggest party. Very few lib dems could be happy propping up a tory govt. For this reason, I would never even consider voting for them, it doesn't matter what else they offer.
I don't buy that, much more likely that they don't vote at all. I would bet a decent chunk of them will actually miss the fact that there is a general election on. Look at the turnout in glasgow ne for a high profile byelection, one of the most deprived areas there is. 33%, unbelievable.
fwiw, I think the libdems are in trouble with floating voters and their core support after Clegg came out and said he would go with the biggest party. Very few lib dems could be happy propping up a tory govt. For this reason, I would never even consider voting for them, it doesn't matter what else they offer.
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