New Posts For Thread: if reform are genuine contenders for next govt then they will have to win this by electionhttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-electionNo if's no but's. Worst govt in history, all the media behind them , leader who gets non stop publicity, they should be winning this seat easily, unlesss.....people are starting to rumble the cranks for what they areThey were expected to get 30-35%, got 29%Maybe because turnout was higher than average for by electionin relative terms, their vote was slightlydiluted in % termsLab / green got 66%, so refuk could not have won.Unless they got stay at homes to vote.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565253013#565253013They were expected to get 30-35%, got 29%Maybe because turnout was higher than average for by electionin relative terms, their vote was slightlydiluted in % termsLab / green got 66%, so refuk could not have won.Unless they got stay at homes to vote.Mon, 02 Mar 2026 11:10:56 -060030% might be their upper limit, in almost all seats, with tactical voting in play.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565252955#56525295530% might be their upper limit, in almost all seats, with tactical voting in play.Mon, 02 Mar 2026 10:32:20 -060030% for reform in an extremely left wing seat is well above par needed to win a general election. they won't be remotely competing with the greens in a general election anyway. the greens will be taking votes in similar metropolitan seats with demogrhttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565252925#56525292530% for reform in an extremely left wing seat is well above par needed to win a general election. they won't be remotely competing with the greens in a general election anyway. the greens will be taking votes in similar metropolitan seats with demogrMon, 02 Mar 2026 10:07:37 -0600https://x.com/i/status/2028055452852834671Karl Turner , Labour MP one of the few decent ones left brillianthttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565251511#565251511https://x.com/i/status/2028055452852834671Karl Turner , Labour MP one of the few decent ones left brilliantSun, 01 Mar 2026 10:27:22 -0600This was Labour's 6th safest seat!Incredible seeing people analyzing this without mentioning that.People think Reform might win a GE, no one thought they were going to win 500+ seatshttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565251441#565251441This was Labour's 6th safest seat!Incredible seeing people analyzing this without mentioning that.People think Reform might win a GE, no one thought they were going to win 500+ seatsSun, 01 Mar 2026 09:30:53 -0600Really!This was Labour's 6th safest seat!It was a disaster for Keir Starmer. The only reason he's not facing a putsch this weekend is there is worse to come.Come 8th May he will be offered the revolver.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565251089#565251089Really!This was Labour's 6th safest seat!It was a disaster for Keir Starmer. The only reason he's not facing a putsch this weekend is there is worse to come.Come 8th May he will be offered the revolver.Sun, 01 Mar 2026 06:13:50 -0600I don't think there was much tactical voting really. Labour weren't far from second place. In fact you could have added and halved the Green/Labour vote and it would have still won. This wasn't a case of people lending votes to ensure someone else dohttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565251039#565251039I don't think there was much tactical voting really. Labour weren't far from second place. In fact you could have added and halved the Green/Labour vote and it would have still won. This wasn't a case of people lending votes to ensure someone else doSun, 01 Mar 2026 04:59:35 -0600The result of the Gorton & Denton by election was a disaster for Farage and Reform. It proved conclusively that people are prepared to vote tactically in order to defeat the harbingers of division and hate. I doubt if Farage ever wanted to be Prime Mhttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565251023#565251023The result of the Gorton & Denton by election was a disaster for Farage and Reform. It proved conclusively that people are prepared to vote tactically in order to defeat the harbingers of division and hate. I doubt if Farage ever wanted to be Prime MSun, 01 Mar 2026 04:45:06 -0600This is the problem with Reform. They have a relatively low ceiling and if other parties vote tactically to stop them, they can't win seats.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565248215#565248215This is the problem with Reform. They have a relatively low ceiling and if other parties vote tactically to stop them, they can't win seats.Fri, 27 Feb 2026 08:52:14 -0600Farage was too chicken to campaign.He won't have a choice in a GE.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31894115/if-reform-are-genuine-contenders-for-next-govt-then-they-will-have-to-win-this-by-election?post_id=565247905#565247905Farage was too chicken to campaign.He won't have a choice in a GE.Fri, 27 Feb 2026 06:06:21 -0600