New Posts For Thread: US next president odds implied by betfair election state bettinghttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31674257/us-next-president-odds-implied-by-betfair-election-state-bettingUsing the betfair election state betting odds we can imply the probability that a state is won by the dem or the rep party. We also know the number of the number of seats each state brings to the electoral college. For each state we can generate fromIf anyone wants to mess around with the data I posted here https://pastebin.com/kkNThQFC .https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31674257/us-next-president-odds-implied-by-betfair-election-state-betting?post_id=560083643#560083643If anyone wants to mess around with the data I posted here https://pastebin.com/kkNThQFC .Mon, 02 Nov 2020 08:51:51 -0600Agreed PP. It does seem that either the state by state betting market is mispriced or the next president market is. But very good point from dave1357 the state markets are correlated.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31674257/us-next-president-odds-implied-by-betfair-election-state-betting?post_id=560083635#560083635Agreed PP. It does seem that either the state by state betting market is mispriced or the next president market is. But very good point from dave1357 the state markets are correlated.Mon, 02 Nov 2020 08:49:09 -0600Trump has been a shorter price thanthe reps for most of the past week or soOn many occasions creating an arb. Something wrong.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31674257/us-next-president-odds-implied-by-betfair-election-state-betting?post_id=560083629#560083629Trump has been a shorter price thanthe reps for most of the past week or soOn many occasions creating an arb. Something wrong.Mon, 02 Nov 2020 08:48:23 -0600a) they aren't independentb) the markets believe that trump will try to cheat his way to a winhttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31674257/us-next-president-odds-implied-by-betfair-election-state-betting?post_id=560083623#560083623a) they aren't independentb) the markets believe that trump will try to cheat his way to a winMon, 02 Nov 2020 08:47:53 -0600Betting odds are dictated by the weight of punters money. Often the true chances of a result happening, particularly in politics, bear no resemblance to the betting odds.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31674257/us-next-president-odds-implied-by-betfair-election-state-betting?post_id=560083569#560083569Betting odds are dictated by the weight of punters money. Often the true chances of a result happening, particularly in politics, bear no resemblance to the betting odds.Mon, 02 Nov 2020 08:36:30 -0600Using the betfair election state betting odds we can imply the probability that a state is won by the dem or the rep party. We also know the number of the number of seats each state brings to the electoral college. For each state we can generate fromhttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/31674257/us-next-president-odds-implied-by-betfair-election-state-betting?post_id=560083515#560083515Using the betfair election state betting odds we can imply the probability that a state is won by the dem or the rep party. We also know the number of the number of seats each state brings to the electoral college. For each state we can generate fromMon, 02 Nov 2020 08:25:37 -0600