New Posts For Thread: Why did Betfair get it so wrong?https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrongSub 1.10 last nightI was reading a forex blog a few days ago where traders were discussing the referendum, lots of people were saying ignore the polls and look at the betting odds instead, makes you wonder who is following who.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549136199#549136199I was reading a forex blog a few days ago where traders were discussing the referendum, lots of people were saying ignore the polls and look at the betting odds instead, makes you wonder who is following who.Fri, 24 Jun 2016 16:59:46 -050055-60% remain was actually favourite at 12.45 in the afternoon. I remember as well that at some point after 10pm the 45-50% remain (leave win) fired out to over 20/1 for a few seconds (i didnt get on). Just the sheer weight of confidence was amazinghttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549135745#54913574555-60% remain was actually favourite at 12.45 in the afternoon. I remember as well that at some point after 10pm the 45-50% remain (leave win) fired out to over 20/1 for a few seconds (i didnt get on). Just the sheer weight of confidence was amazingFri, 24 Jun 2016 16:14:26 -0500113.7 Million. Must have smashed the record for one single market. Would like to know the all time top 5 tbh.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549135663#549135663113.7 Million. Must have smashed the record for one single market. Would like to know the all time top 5 tbh.Fri, 24 Jun 2016 16:07:38 -0500seemed utterly crazy that remain got smashed into 1.06 shortly after 10pmnigel farage gave a very non committal response in that he thought remain had edged it and the you gov exit poll was 52-48 certainly close enough to indicate leave could have wohttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549135449#549135449seemed utterly crazy that remain got smashed into 1.06 shortly after 10pmnigel farage gave a very non committal response in that he thought remain had edged it and the you gov exit poll was 52-48 certainly close enough to indicate leave could have woFri, 24 Jun 2016 15:49:28 -0500I'm thinking now that many of those polled probably lied (saying they'd vote Remain) out of fear of being accused of being racist/xenephobic/bigoted blah blah. Its understandable when you look at some of the tv debates and how the audiences behaved.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549133771#549133771I'm thinking now that many of those polled probably lied (saying they'd vote Remain) out of fear of being accused of being racist/xenephobic/bigoted blah blah. Its understandable when you look at some of the tv debates and how the audiences behaved.Fri, 24 Jun 2016 13:37:15 -0500The bookies never get it wrong ! How often have we heard that rubbish on TV ? Robert Peston even said it and we all know what a plonker he is.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549133715#549133715The bookies never get it wrong ! How often have we heard that rubbish on TV ? Robert Peston even said it and we all know what a plonker he is.Fri, 24 Jun 2016 13:33:39 -0500Those first two bigger results in Newcastle and Sunderland showed leave would doing better than 'expected' for a 50/50 national vote. The BBC methodology was proved to be very sound but through the night the gamblers on here just did not believe it.https://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549133571#549133571Those first two bigger results in Newcastle and Sunderland showed leave would doing better than 'expected' for a 50/50 national vote. The BBC methodology was proved to be very sound but through the night the gamblers on here just did not believe it.Fri, 24 Jun 2016 13:23:53 -0500Personally I feel that the main reason Leave won was Labour's inability to get their remain vote out. When the Newcastle and Sunderland results were announced, there was a quick follow up on the BBC by the reporter in Yorkshire saying leave were doinhttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549133501#549133501Personally I feel that the main reason Leave won was Labour's inability to get their remain vote out. When the Newcastle and Sunderland results were announced, there was a quick follow up on the BBC by the reporter in Yorkshire saying leave were doinFri, 24 Jun 2016 13:18:32 -0500A lot of polls had Brexit ahead. From that I thought it should be 50/50 bet but everyone was saying leave needs to be 10 points ahead in the polls to actually win due to the undecided voters going with the status quo. It seems for some reason they dihttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549133385#549133385A lot of polls had Brexit ahead. From that I thought it should be 50/50 bet but everyone was saying leave needs to be 10 points ahead in the polls to actually win due to the undecided voters going with the status quo. It seems for some reason they diFri, 24 Jun 2016 13:07:59 -0500The markets were just stupid.The shocking part for me is that for a lot of the night the remain market had 55-60 (strong remain win) at less than 2/1 while 45-50 (scraped leave win) was more like 10/1. So they werent just looking at the 52-48 poll thhttps://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30706421/why-did-betfair-get-it-so-wrong?post_id=549133343#549133343The markets were just stupid.The shocking part for me is that for a lot of the night the remain market had 55-60 (strong remain win) at less than 2/1 while 45-50 (scraped leave win) was more like 10/1. So they werent just looking at the 52-48 poll thFri, 24 Jun 2016 13:05:48 -0500