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paddletoe
13 Jan 11 20:09
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Date Joined: 24 Jul 07
| Topic/replies: 615 | Blogger: paddletoe's blog
I played these games yesterday for the first time in 4 years for a bit of a change to help give my poker a little variety and concentrate my mind on the mathmatics.

I played over 100 games with buy ins $20 to $50. A mixture of turbo with quite a lot of post flop play for a reasonable ammount of time and also super turbo with post flop play for a very limited ammount of time.

The purpose of my question has to do with the part of each game when blinds get so big that all play is preflop. I have always seen the importance of getting money in first in such situations. When i first started playing poker 5 years ago this fundamental theory was really not understood by  a lot of players at the stakes i played. But nowadays with poker books more readily available this seems a default play by nearly every player.

When i first started playing yesterday i soon realised that i no longer had as much fold equity as i expected and would have been the case 5 years ago. Typically i am talking about when blinds are 100 and 200 with both players have roughly around their starting stacks of 1500.

It did not take me that long to see just how much fold equity had become part of these games. I was getting instant shoved against a huge proportion of times. And my shoves were getting called by a wider range of hands that i initially expected.

Presently working on some game theory just for my own interest to see if it produces better results eventhough i dont see myself playing these games regularly.

This invloves reducing my all ins by a certain percentage but mainly has to do with my calling range for all ins which seems to go against the fundamental theory of poker. Sometimes even calling when i know i am giving away some EV in a particular game but getting more of an EV back in return against a long series of games against the same player.

What i would like to ask because i cant find any charts on is what are the exact winning chances for various holdings when calling an all in against a player you figure is pushing all in blind over 95 % of the time. The reason i say 95% and not 100% is because with very big hands players will normally limp.
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Report paddletoe January 13, 2011 8:20 PM GMT
I dont mean to sound lazy but i cant seem to find such a chart. As a cash player i have never had any reason to see such a chart. All ins for cash are more situtational than mathmatcis as the range of hands is usually narrow.Maths is normally only a factor all in pre flop against a player with a medium to small stack.
Report Steve19 January 13, 2011 10:53 PM GMT
under the assumption that the 5% of hands he isnt playing are 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o, some random hand equities are:

JTo = 54.44% , T9o = 50.5% , 98o = 46.88%
JTs = 56.78% , T9s = 53.06%, 98s = 49.66%
K2o = 49.47% , A2o = 54%,    AKs = 67%

i don't know of any chart that exists as it would be very tiresome for someone to do, i also don't know why you wouldnt use things like this as a cash player, they are much more important to a cash player than a tournament player imo.
Report Steve19 January 13, 2011 10:55 PM GMT
also disagree with players limping with big hands when playing heads up, seems stupid to me
Report yoyoyoyo January 13, 2011 11:18 PM GMT
google - nash equilibrium - that should help, but remember that is +EV but not max EV and only against someone that is playing the perfect strat against you, ie someone using nash. If someone is not shoving enough then you can tighten it slighlty and vise versa
Report o o o o o o o o January 13, 2011 11:47 PM GMT
Paddletoe did you make any cash with your 100 games??

If after 5 years of playing "pro" you cant beat $50 dollar hu sng then give the game up imo......
Report NickFiickTheOriginal January 14, 2011 12:16 AM GMT
Buy Moshmman's Heads-Up NLHE (assuming that's what you are playing).
Good explanation of Nash, counter-strategies, and on varying high blinds.
Particularly as you are playing HU SNGs.

Only bought it to help me with my own HU play presuming I got that far in full table SNGs. Helped my game. Though quite clear at lower limits that I play my opponents rarely understood.

I should imagine from your post is that the average S50 HU SNG player understands this so , although in MTTs on this site that I play in I see all sorts of all-in shoves at lower blind levels which I do not understand, let alone high blind levels.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 12:58 AM GMT
In answer to a few questions i made a little bit. Not very much. Over approx 100 games 30 were against fairly weak players. I won the majority of these, playing a mixture of aggressive against tight players and trapping against loose players at low blinds.

In a few games i had walks when players did not rurn up for games.

Against those playing generally what is now considered the standard sit and go strategy for these stakes i probably broke even. Their agreesion level was greater than mine for the majority of the games. I should have called more all ins than i did as i overestimated their range. I should have folded some hands of my own instead of going all in as i had over estimated fold equity. Basically i was up against players thinking on the same level as myself but more aggressive.

I was down intially in the session but finished ahead when i changed my play with more counter strategies against the better players. Working on some strategies to take into account i know what actions a lot of players will make before they see their cards.

I would disagree you need to know such a wide range of all in odds preflop for cash. In sit and go hu at incresing blinds a players shove range covers every possible two card holding. This is never the case pre flop in cash. I only know as much preflop all in odds in cash as i need to know. With most all ins for 100 big blinds pre flop in cash the decisions are mostly situation influenced.
Report o o o o o o o o January 14, 2011 11:26 AM GMT
If you made money from the games then thats the important thing, the more you play them the better you should get.Dont get too theoretical about percentages and stuff just play your best and try to win more than you lose. Hu sng is the only way to make money from sit and gos imo unless you are playing mega volume for cake and bonus.
Report chipfire227 January 14, 2011 12:03 PM GMT
the complete nash equilibrium charts were printed in the october 2008 issue of poker player magazine. i wouldnt even contemplate playing 50$ heads up without familiarising yourself with the theory behind them.

hu stts on bf are the worst value in the poker world because of the 10% rake. if you are gonna play em play on a site with 5% rake, and obviously DO get theoretical and learn the percentages.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 12:12 PM GMT
There is only a 5% rake on the site i play and i get 45% of that back.

With total buy ins for a decent days play easily being $3,000 the difference between 10% and 5% fees is $150 a day. Even getting nearly half of that rake back its still a big difference over a year.
Report chipfire227 January 14, 2011 12:41 PM GMT
you might want to have a read through this then :

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/hune.html
Report wykhamist2 January 14, 2011 12:54 PM GMT
I have looked at the Nash Equilibrium but not found it very useful. If I have got to the HU stage of a STT or MTT what I do is to try to calibrate quickly what the opponents calling/shoving range is and adjust my play accordingly. The most crucial thing is often whether or not he is prepared to call an all in preflop with Kx/Qx. If he is then obviously I will try to get my chips in with any A.
Report chipfire227 January 14, 2011 12:59 PM GMT
not just about ranges, its about stack sizes.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 1:04 PM GMT
Thanks chipfire for the chart. Will read it more fully later together with some forum posts on another site i have googled. From first impression i am not sure this model is the one i was looking for.

From the 100 or so sample hands i have played in these games this week having not played them in a good few years i have found that that players fall into two opposite groups at big blinds with little in between. Some play very tight with no concept of fold equity when shoving while the majority instant shove close to 100% of the time. My own play is very much dependant on a counter strategy to each of these two groups.

Working on some game theory on more the calling sise of things against players shoving 100% of the time.
Report chipfire227 January 14, 2011 1:16 PM GMT
nash just the starting point really. it will tell you when its mathematically correct to call/shove in every single situation you find yourself in. impossible to do the calculations on the spot, but its good for looking back at hands you think you may have played badly.

i found from examining my hand histories i was folding to shoves much more than i should have been.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 1:16 PM GMT
Pretty sure i read somewhere that Q7 is break even for calling a computer ( with no concept of hand ranking or poker ) going all in with two blind cards. Obviously, the computer and i would both lose in this situation if we paid rake.

My thinking is along the lines of less than Q7 being profitable for calling all ins at very high blinds against a playing shoving like the computer, First i need less than Q7 to call as i am talking about blinds being up to 300 and 150 with 1500 stacks and i have already equity in the hand. Secondly, i am ruling out ruling out some of the very big hands the other player will have as part of his range as he might limp or more likely limp with these hands.

Few other factors not related to odds are things i am looking at.
Report o o o o o o o o January 14, 2011 1:17 PM GMT
You could learn every hand percentage off by heart it still wouldnt make you a winning player, there is a lot more to think about than that especially at higher levels...if you play too much according to some chart that was in a magazine you will get eaten alive.... what site do u play on paddletoe?
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 1:45 PM GMT
Yes, i agree with the last post. Rainman would probably not be a very good poker player!
Report Steve19 January 14, 2011 2:45 PM GMT
if people are limping against you with big hands then they are complete idiots and it should be simple to beat them. Q7o is 51.7% favourite against a random hand so slightly better than break even
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 3:37 PM GMT
I would not call it bad play to limp. Yes, it would be in the early stages of a sit n go when blind ratio to stack sizes are equivalent to cash games.

But i was specifically talking about situations when stack sizes were 6 big blinds are less. I think limping here is optimal with certain hands.  A lot of times the other player will push all in or he will be all if he catches any part of a flop.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 3:49 PM GMT
Obviously if another player knows you only ever limp with big hands thats a mistake. Personally i will limp several times in a sit n go mostly at stages where getting raised and folding and losing my blind is virtually irrelevent towards overall stack sizes. Infact i want to get raised and fold.
Report Steve19 January 14, 2011 4:01 PM GMT
6 big blinds or less your only two moves should be all in or fold, because A. 6 big blinds he is likely to call your all in regardless and B. your giving him the opportunity to hit a hand / get away from a bad hand if he doesnt hit by limping (like you say he will be all in if he catches any part of the flop, so why let him, why not get the best equity you can by pushing preflop when he is likely to call anyway). Limping at the start when blinds are small imo is ok depending on the player, but not with a big hand.
Report chipfire227 January 14, 2011 5:23 PM GMT
its not just " some chart in a magazine " is it ooooo ? its optimal strategy covering every single situation you could find yourself in heads up.

for example in a heads up game against one of the best players in the world, with blinds 300/600 (no antes) and your stack being 5400 and his 8100, what % of hands could you shove with , and what % can he call with, if you were both playing mathematically perfect poker ?
Report chipfire227 January 14, 2011 5:28 PM GMT
steve with 5-6 bbs you should be shoving around 71% of your hands and folding the rest. not sure why any right minded individual would be limping.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 10:59 PM GMT
With blinds at say 100 and 200 with players having 6-7 big blinds limping with very big hands is definately the optimal play most times. Especially against an aggressive player who has previously seen you limp fold and who is going to push all hands from the button. A high percentage of the times he will push all in after your limp. If he flats and catches  any part of the flop you dont mind as the money will usually be all in when he either pushes first with second pair or a draw or he check raises with a better hand. If he checks and i have say aces i will check behind giving him a second chance to catch something on the turn. My combined equity taking into account of him pushing pre or post flop is proably going to be at leat 80%

I dont mind losing 20% of the time in this situation if the alternative is he is pushing every button against me.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 11:22 PM GMT
A question to steve and chipfire. Blinds 100 and 200 with me and you both having 6-7 big blinds.

I limp on the button. What do you do with various holdings. Even with the advantage of knowing everything i have said about how i would play this situation. I am not always limping with very big hands. I am limping with various hands. Sometimes folding to a push. Losing a 1/2 big blind here of 100 by limp folding rather than pushing pushing or folding i dont see as being being a big factor in the game. I have not reduced my chances of winning by having 1200 rather than 1300 if i limp fold.

Would you see my limp as strength or weakness? 

If you called and caught top of second pair could you get away from the hand if i had aces. I dont mind giving you 5 outs and losing 20% of the time if the alternative is seeing you push next hand and every other button against me as a lot of players do. I am going to have to fold some hands to your pushes and when i do call i am proabably going to have no better than 50% equity taking into account possible previous folds.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 11:42 PM GMT
Even if i did limp with aces and you checked behind and got lucky by catching two random pair on the flop i still have at least 8 outs to catch up.
Report paddletoe January 14, 2011 11:45 PM GMT
I mean 5 outs on the flop with nearly every turn card giving me another 3 outs.

Anyways, off to play some poker. Wish me luck.
Report chipfire227 January 14, 2011 11:54 PM GMT
nash is the starting point for every heads up decision, which you adjust according to your opponent. if he is tight you can widen your shoving range and reduce your calling range, and vice versa.

to start with i cant see any situation arising where you have a total of 2400 chips in play leaving you both with  6 bbs or less, at 100/200 as you originally stated. secondly, you say that your opponent is going to shove everytime you limp irrespective of his holding. if we knew for certain what our opponent is going to do before he even does it every time we played, we would all be rich. you are effectively answering your own question.

is it sometimes right to limp to induce a shove from an overly aggressive opponent with aa or kk ? of course it is, but only if you are certain your opponent will shove more than 80% of the time.

but in the situation you are discussing your limp is going to stand out like a sore thumb, as will a min raise, because you cant possibly have been repeatedly limp folding at that blind level without going bust. i doubt you will find many opponents playing high stakes who play the same way  every single hand, but good luck to you if you do.
Report Steve19 January 15, 2011 12:11 AM GMT
First off i disagree with 2 things you said:

"A high percentage of the times he will push all in after your limp." - As an aggressive, possibly over aggressive player myself, i will check a VERY high percentage, 90% plus to someone who limps, effectively at 6bbs the hand belongs to the player with the button and a free flop is usually a luxury i wouldnt get, so i almost always check here, postflop this is generally what i would do: shove if i hit any part of it (pair, openender, flushdraw etc.), check shove if i hit anythin better than a pair, pushing on the turn if he checks back. check fold if i miss as im worried about a big hand from your limp.

"I have not reduced my chances of winning by having 1200 rather than 1300 if i limp fold." - In my opinion you have reduced your chances of winning, maybe not considerably but in the long run its the small things that count.

anyway to answer your question i would see your limp as strength, but i would still probably push TT/JJ+ preflop to a limp even though it looks strong. probably check everything else for a free flop generally.
Report turtleshead January 15, 2011 12:52 AM GMT
Good thread this Happy
Report paddletoe January 15, 2011 1:08 AM GMT
Very interesting to have some different thoughts. I play sit n goes now and again more for variety. I dont see myself playig them regularly. I like thinking about strategy and game theory so thats the real purpose of this thread. But i always encourage alternative views. Sometimes i will alter my own views as a result of other convincing arguments but in this case i maintain my views to be correct.

A few things, when i said there was no difference between 1200 and 1300 chips i meant to say the difference was marginal and not a big factor.

Stevie the way you said you would play against a limp at the blinds mentioned was precisely what i stated most players would do. Obviously if i had aces my hand plays itself to a big degree. I am just saying that by limping it gives you a better chance to stack off your opponent no matter how good he is, on a lot of flops or turns. Of course he is always going to have some equity but i would say the equity he will usually have on either the flop or especially the turn would be less than he had if as someone else said they are calling most all all ins in this spot.Normally i would expect a player who called my limp to get it all in against me with second pair, sometimes any pair, straight draws that are open ended, most straight draws with a gutter and an overcard, dlush draws, and somethimes on a pure bluff. On average his equity over all the hands, including the small number of times he outflops me,would probably be less than 20% taking into account some all ins will be on the turn and he has only one go at hitting outs.

From a sample of 100 hands i can say the following is generally true. Most aggressive players will shove to a limp on my part at the blind levels mentioned regardless of their cards thinking fold equity is very high. A limp on my part in this situation is followed by an all in shove over 50% of the time.

Also, the games i am talking about have starting stacks of 1500 and a fair percentage of the games will reach a stage where blinds are 100 and 200 and stack sizes are close to average.
Report paddletoe January 15, 2011 1:19 AM GMT
One last thing i am not sure how you can say you would see a limp as strong but still push all in with 10 10 and JJ. I am not saying you would be wrong to do so. Infact there is nothing to even think about if you have 10 10 JJ and many lesser hands in your situation. Your going all in every time.

But the fact you say you would see a limp as strong but go all in with 10 10 does not make sense. Your argument only seems to value your own card strength but when you say say you would see a limp as strength you would have to think that strenGth could beat 10 10. Not many players would see 99 as or less as a hand strong enough to trap limp with.
Report ABU AL-HASAN AL-MAWARDI January 15, 2011 1:34 AM GMT
This thread depresses me
Report chipfire227 January 15, 2011 1:50 PM GMT
if you played this guy 100 times deep stack slow blinds heads up ABU how many times would he win ?

think the spread would be 12-15. and that might be kind to him. [;)]
Report Yorky Pud January 15, 2011 3:54 PM GMT
Try this article, still relevant today - http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer-magazines/65582-19-2/articles/15250-are...
Report paddletoe January 15, 2011 5:31 PM GMT
Chipfire i am more than happy to play Abu 100 games deepstacked with slow blinds. Your spread makes me a 6/1 shot but i am not greedy. I will only take 5/1. How much of a side bet do you want on giben your getting an edge in the odds.
Report paddletoe January 15, 2011 5:36 PM GMT
Alternatively if you want to play the 100 games yourself i will show my generous nature and only ask for 4/1 odds.[;)]
Report akabula January 16, 2011 4:51 PM GMT
As Bjork would sing "It's went oh so quiet" [;)]
Report o o o o o o o o January 16, 2011 5:03 PM GMT
Paddletoe do not let the likes of chipfire rattle you, he doesnt even play hu sng, At the end of the day the most important thing is whether you are making money or not, If you was going to embark on playing hu seriously then play 100 games look at your results, if your winning good if your not then why not? then play another 100 and look at this. There are so many experts on here but most of them make no money or if they do its peanuts so please dont take any advice from them, that is if you want to eat.....gl
Report paddletoe January 16, 2011 5:22 PM GMT
Thanks oooooo. Takes a lot to rattle me. Really dont mind folk disagreeing with me. If someone is going to throw a spread bet at me i am happy to throw them back a bet in return.

There is not a player alive who would beat me up 85% of the times over 100 games. Infact there is not a player who could beat me up 70% over a 100 games. Not because i think i am any hot shot. Actually the reverse.I know my own strenhths and limitations. And my strengths are just enough to pay the rent. It would simply never happen beacuse i dont have any ego or illusions about how good a player i might be. There could never be 100 games because i would not play against someone who was holding such an edge over me ( and i am sure some might.
Report o o o o o o o o January 16, 2011 5:32 PM GMT
[u]I know my own strenhths and limitations[/u]

Spelling not one of them Laugh

Paddletoe as i say keep grinding in whatever way suits you, play however you feel is best, at the end of the day making money is what its all about, let these donks study there percentage charts and keep making no money...gl
Report paddletoe January 16, 2011 5:43 PM GMT
Yes English gramer is not one of my stregths.

Just as well in betting and poker you dont need good grammar to have enough skills to pay the bills.

Thanks for popping by ooooo and saying something nice. I dont mind criticism or differences ofopinion but it  always disheartens me when i find some people motives are more to put others down. So it always nice to balance that up with folk who seem nice and try to be helpful.
Report akabula January 16, 2011 5:45 PM GMT
Still no take-up of your bet offer.
Would be good to rail if Chip or Abu accept the challenge.
Report paddletoe January 16, 2011 6:00 PM GMT
Willing to be a gamester and drop my odds to 7/2 giving my opponent an even bigger edge. Anyone free to rail if the offer is taken up just as long as they are not expecting it to be exciting as the dur challenge.
Report paddletoe January 16, 2011 6:13 PM GMT
Also willing to concede home field advantage and play on befair poker for the first time. Thats in addition to conceding to play to deepstack and a slow clock  But thats all the concessions i am giving. Already think i have been more than generous. My offer stands till midnight tomorrow afterwhich point its withdrawn so dont snooze or you lose.

That shall be all from me on the matter.
Report chipfire227 January 16, 2011 11:05 PM GMT
a bloke who claims to have not had a winning week for 18 months, versus one of the best online stt players in britain ? of course i'd be happy to take 7/2 on.

will never happen though, as ABU wouldn't get out of the pool for less than 50k.

at no point whatsoever have i challenged anyone. i merely responded, very helpfully imo, to a request for information by posting links to charts and theory.if people think its unhelpful to familiarise yourself with the maths of the game, again imho, thats bad advice.
   
ooooo, i use the  same playername and forum name, unlike most. i have nothing to hide, nor do i claim to be a pro. my stats are all on scope for anyone who wants to view them. 33 winning months from 36 and a positive roi at all levels from $2 to $50. it doesnt make me phil ivey, but at least i dont hide who i am.
Report paddletoe January 17, 2011 9:35 AM GMT
I do apologise. I obviously got your intentions all wrong. You were by your own words comparing me with one of the best online players in Britain ( who would not get out of the pool for 50 large ) for my own good.

You are right that such a player might in theory  have such an edge over me but i fail to see how this was being helpful or relevent. But in real life it could never happen, at least over 100 games as i like to think it would take me a lot less than 100 games to realise i was on a mission to nothing.

To be fair the poster named never felt the need to say what you did nor did he start quoted spread bets. He was probably still in the pool.
Report paddletoe January 17, 2011 9:45 AM GMT
You seem to feel the need to compare my run over 18 months with yours. Well done on your record. As you brought this up, not me, just out of interest what edge do you think you would hold over me given the fact you have had just 3 losing months in 3 years and i have not had a winning week in 18 months. your words again, not mine.

We can take things from there ( if you want ) and let the poster named Abu drying off by the poolside with a cold banana daquiri.

That will be all for now.
Report paddletoe January 17, 2011 10:08 AM GMT
My offer will remain on the table till tonight as promised. For you or Abu, although he never actually said what you did but you seem to be his PR agent so maybe you can contact him.

Its really not cool trying to scare me off with big money. I could not afford to play for over 50,000. [:(]

But i am prepared to play for 4 figure sums. This time we can play for even money. I would need to win 14 games out of 100 to win the side bet according to your spread which you said was generous to me. Not sure who would hold the side bet so heres another proposal.

We play a series of sit and goes and each game is handicapped on a pro rata basis according to your spread claims. My opponent, whoever it may be, agrres to slide over a certain ammount of chips on the first hand regardless of cards. That way the game is immediately handicapped and we can play normally from there.

Get back to me on this before tonight. If your interested.
Report paddletoe January 17, 2011 10:35 AM GMT
I will not be posting on this thread after midnight if my generous offer (where i am happy to concede edges )is not taken up but i thank everyone on this thread who has tried to answer some genuine questions in a helpful manner.

With some folk though so called help is always disguised with attempts to put others down. I know the difference.
Report chipfire227 January 17, 2011 11:44 AM GMT
my question about the 100 games was lightheartedly aimed at ABU. it was never likely to draw a response. the thread depresses him, and it is now depressing me.

i have no interest in comparing my stats with yours paddletoe, or anyboby elses, i posted the fact they are viewable in response to a comment from ooooo who suggested i was a donk who made no money.
Report paddletoe January 17, 2011 12:38 PM GMT
Okay i shall let this thread fade way.

My only gripe with you chipfire is that it seemed your intentions were to put me down and while it does not affect any vanity you may i think i have its just something i dont like to see. Just thought your comments were uncalled for. And if others find this thread depressing thats fair enough. Feel rather flattered actually that Abu would take time from lounging at the pool to make a comment on this huble thread especially as he does apparently not get up out of bed for less than 50,000.

I never expected that my proposal would be taken up. You would need to be very silly to do so. I now withdraw it. It was simply an attempt by me to challenge others manhood in the hope that their ego may draw them into a rather unfair fight. I have obviously failed but god loves a trier.

On this thread i was politely asking for answers to some maths questions but some people found the need to stick their beaks into something which had no need to concern them while others seemed to want talk about different things. As a result i found the need to ask some folk to put up or shut up.  I dont feel the need to be compared with someone who is by all accounts  better than me. I dont feel others should either.

Goodbye and all the best to you.
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