I have not had a winning week in 18 months

I made a thread recently which received a lot of replies as I went 28 STTs with out a single cash, I was pretty sure it was Variance and to a certain degree I was right as 6 weeks later I have repaired the hole that I had dug myself.

I too use HM and during that period I was above EV but could do nothing right, in the end im pretty sure I got into a mindset where I felt I would never cash again. BUT 18 months of Multi-tabling is a lot of hands im pretty sure you should have started to iron out any Variances in your game well before now

My advice would be take a break, buy Holdem Manager and learn to use it and understand what the numbers mean and try to find any leaks or missteps that may be in your game, if everything is perfect and your stats compare to the best I think you could rightly call your self "A very unlucky bloke"

Reasons for losing months

1= variance
2= Poor players who think that starting hand strength is the be all and end all
3= Inability to assess hand strength post flop
4= Inability to analyse oppositions weaknesses
5= Lack of reasoned analysis of your past play
6= Poor understanding of outs
7= not taking notes

I could continue, but how many fish can you identify at the tables, how do you measure up against them.

There are so many supposed sharks out there who know starting hand strength and assume they are the bees knees because of this. Post flop is where it counts.

its impossible to lose every week for 18 months unless you are a complete fish - or purely a recreational player that plays for laughs - eg in games like the community forum games.

Oi thats fightin' talk that is Klup [>o]

I'll have you know that I'm a complete star in those MTT's and all my losses are complete bad luck [:p]

Klup if you arn't more careful with your backchat I'll have to raise my aim of knocking you out of 3 MTT's this year.

You have been warned

Gotta change with the time.  Poker, even at low stakes, has undoubtedly changed over the last 18-24 months.  Evolve or pay the price.

I would love to get my losing run DOWN to eighteen months !!!
Its at eight years now and counting...

As far as betfair goes I'd say the big change occurred when masses of Russians and other far eastern Europeans started on the site. The style of play took a big shift after this influx.

Im sure they are CREIDHNE :)

But I stand by my comments.

I'm primarily a mtt player, with negative stats on STT which i only play to kill time and much much worse at cash tables (where i dont go as its usually -100% ROI ).

Apart from the early days when i got into poker, my worst phase lasted just three months at a time when I was on a life tilt moment. I had lost the plot a bit for various personal reasons.

From October to December 2007 - I did my boots and blew something around £10,000 to £14,000. Before then I was pretty much a break even player and rakeback was profit. Was up about £5000 on the year up until then, with no major swings

During that life tilt phase, I played under the alias of Enigma- at stakes way above my level ($400 stt's, $500 6 shooter etc).

I suffered some serious tilt moments with incredible beats that had me steaming and I was convinced I owned a cursed account.

Fortunately for me, SPACKERS (who probably doesnt remember this at all), told me during a badbeat tantrum i was having, that if bad beats get me raging and tilting, then im playing way above my stake levels. 

That was the best piece of advice i ever got in poker - so when the I created THE KLUP and came down to $10-$100 levels (mainly played $20-$50) things turned. I dont have any anger in my game anymore (or very really). Thus I found my way again and had a run of 17 consecutive winning months between January 2008 and May 2009.

Total profit was well over £25,000. June and July 2009 were smallish losing months - bubbled for the third time for a WSOP Main event Package and lost a bit of the "obsession to play"

I started to focus on being an affiliate and poker became a recreational thing for me.

Many will look at my ongame stats, my style of play in The Klup's challenge and the forum games, some of the low end stakes game and think Im a losing player / fish. I have pretty much a result of "playing to my audience" so to speak - with mostly a break even ratio - a few small losing months and a few small winning ones, but no real swings.

I maintain im a winning player - and when it matters, i do find a way to raise my game.

There is no way a good player can have such a long term bad run, and if paddletoe is on an 18 month downswing, i hope the pleasure he gets taking part is the only reason he plays the game - kind of like when you pay a "cover charge" to go into a disco, nightclub or football match. No guarantee you will have fun, but you're prepaired to pay for the ride.

Only really had two times when I've really lost the plot.

Once against a player who was a real abuser of the chat, he handed out a couple of bad beats to me. I don't know why but this guy really ****** me off.

Other time was when I lost 24 allins (my definition might be a bit different than others) on trot (I know a lot dont believe that but never mind....), I've probably had runs where I've won them all quite a few times.

On a bad run at the moment (may even now be tilting, a few of the hands are definitely dodgy) but I can't say that I'm upset with it. (been logging it with aaaaggghhhh).

I don't play many MTT's (I am a bit up on them over the years but there are many better than me on the site).

By the way you are not alone, other target is to knock doobs out of 3 MTT's aswell, and I'm even contemplating adding Keith to that list [smiley:crazy]

Never add Keith A to your list - you will just become a victim of his Golden Hand of the day threads.

When i see Keith A in a tournament, I unregister!

Thanks everyone for taking the time to reply. First of all my post is 100% genuine. My losing streak does not take into account rakeback or monthly bonus - just pure poker profit from play. As a result i did break even or make a small profit most months but not nrealy enough to justify the ammount of time i played. I am honest enough to say i have not been making minimum wage playing poker for 18 months.

I am no world beater but for 3-4 years prior to my slump i made a good living playing poker. I definately dont need any help in things like EV, assessing players, and general poker strategy.

My slump started when i went after a monthly rake competition with a very big first prize. I was actually winning it for over a week, and probably could have held on but for hitting my first very bad run in poker which was multiplied by the volume i was playing at the time.

I must admit a few things. In the past 18 months the overall standard of play has incresed a lot in poker. There are a lot more competant players chasing fewer and fewer bad players. And yes, naturally some of my bad luck has inevitably been followed by some bad play on my part. But honestly, this has been within a reasinable and manageable range.

I really find it easy to accept when i hit a run of kings running into aces or flopping underset to overset because i am on the other side of these set ups to compensate for that. Its just when i am on the right side of good situations i just seem to get outdrawn again and again. Its become obscene just how bad i have run for such a long time.

If i was getting outplayed and losing i would have an easy decision to make to stop playing poker. But when i am losing through bad luck i keep thinking it must turn around. I will take a few days or a week or so off and return with the slate wiped clean in my mind but its an accumulation of running bad thats very hard to deal with.

If i play a session and get kings against aces three times running i can cope with that. But when i am losing nearly every all in time and time again no matter what the situation is its a different matter.

What specific poker tracker or holdem manager would people suggest for me to use. Initially i would just like to use it to assess my own play.

New year ambition

Make Keith's hand of the day at least 3 times during the year. Might have already been in one. I won a big tourney ticket and being a bit scared at the high level was playing uber tight and folding like a good boy should. Then I gets the aa, sweet, I'm goin' to be clever so I flat call. HU with Keith and out of position and I check the flop. keith goes allin an' I'm laughin' ................ I call and Keith has nothing, but then goes on to hit runner runner straight. Still, he was nice about it.

Paddletoe I stand by my earlier statements. A lot of grinders think they are top notch multitabling and playing basic maths with starting hand strengths, not many are a match against a ''proper'' player.

Creidhine i thank you kindly for your constructive critisms as possible reasons for my slump but out of all the reasons i would discount multi tabling first.

I have been multi tabling a long time and fully understand the advantages and disadvantages. When i first started multi tabling 4-5 years ago it was a decision based solely on profit. At the time very few players multi tabled and the standard of play was relatively poor that playing more tables made sense eventhough i would be giving away a little at each table in terms of my own play. At a time when players were talking about getting two screens linked to multi table i invested in an expensive one screen but with a very high resolution so i could play as many tables as i wished.

As the general poker play has increased markedly in the past 2 years i like to think i have adapted my multi tabling as i can no longer afford to give away even small edges in my own play by multi tabling up to 12 games at a time which i used to.

I presently play 6-8 tables which i can cope with very easily and dont think i am giving away any edges in my own play at any of the tables.

In terms of multi tabling i never thought i was any hot shot because i could play more tables. My multi tabling has always been based solely on the optimum number of tables to play to maximize profit. Ammount of rake generated being part of that equation. In the past weekly and monthly rake races with decent prizes were part of this but not any longer as i cease to have an advantage in these.

If your losing and multi tabling then your just multiplying your losses. You should concentrate on one game at a time and work out where your going wrong. Remember it's not always your exit hand that might be the problem.

Throw up a few hand histories of times your losing chips and be honest with yourself.

If you can't beat 1 table then how do you expect to beat 6.

I don't multi table but I do analyse my play.

I will admit that one particular rake race started my slump, and with hindsight i made a big mistake in strategy during that few weeks. It was a month long race and i expected to win clear profit over the month as well as taking a very good first prize. Unfortuntaley i had a bad slump in luck and this was compunded by playing poorly also through tiredness. I was playing 16 hours a day over 12 tables.

However, my thinking was i could wrap up the race with an obcene ammount of play inside a week and the few other players who might be competition would quickly lose heart. This did work but what i had not accounted for was that one group of players might play on the one account. This is what happened. I could not keep up the pace i set fort a full month agaist 3-4 different players using the same account around the clock.

I said on another thread that poker sites run these races not to reward you but to reward themselves. Concentrate on being profitable without rakeback, think of rakeback as an added bonus and not a thing you should depend on.

Ovalman i am not foolish enough to think that poker sites run rake races for the benefit of players. Sometimes however, they may factor in a lose in running a rake race to attract new players.

In terms of rake in my first 2 years of playing poker i never recieved any rake. I actually purposefully played on a site with no rake as i found it more profitable because most  of the other online better players were on sites with rakes and bonuses.

Now however, i dont think you can be profitable at low to medium stakes poker without rake and bonuses. Unless you fall in to the very small group of players who are very gifted.

By profitable without rake i mean that your hourly rate exceeds what you would consider a good return for your labour.

in the two years i played most prior to this slump ( at 50 to 1 nl cash multi tabling 10 games on average approx 30 hours a week, but taking several weeks off ) my total rakeback and bonuses would have been over £30,000 which goes to show just how big a part of profit comes from rakeback and bonuses.

No offense paddletoe, but the big difference in the last couple of years is that more people have the ability to spot the grinders at the table as they have become the most common style of players. Players are not getting better, they have just managed to spot the robotic players. Even the biggest Bozo can't fail to notice a robotic grinder after a couple of weeks play, familiarity; contempt. Once you know how a player acts it becomes easier to play against. It makes me laugh when the grinders begin to moan, a good player will analyse and change accordingly.

"However, my thinking was i could wrap up the race with an obcene ammount of play inside a week and the few other players who might be competition would quickly lose heart. This did work but what i had not accounted for was that one group of players might play on the one account. This is what happened. I could not keep up the pace i set fort a full month agaist 3-4 different players using the same account around the clock"

Not being funny, but how could that not have occured to you? Happened loads of times in these races, easiest way to win them is to share an account, and the sites couldn't care less as they make loads of profits from them!

Credhine, i disagree with your views that play has not improved over the past two years. Also your views that grinders are the new fish in poker. My view is that overall play has improved and there are a lot more grinders.

Most things in life evolve over time and i see poker as being no different. I had a very good living from poker for a number of years so i am not complaining. To a degree i would say poker has been a bit like a gold rush but now most of the gold has run out. poker will probably evolve again. There is only so many times a recreational player can lose money before they take up another less expensive hobby and that is just one of the reasons play is tougher. There are fewer of these player around and at the same time generally better players chasing soft money.

As for the other post about the rake race. It honestly never occurred to me that multiple players would use the same account to play around the clock. Having played on the site i had the opinion that no one at the stakes i played could play the same volume as me which was indeed the case. But the player who went on to win this particular race was one who i had never saw play before so was obviously a new account.

My strategy for the rake race was to turn what was intended to be a marathon into a sprint and break the field very early on and then do just enough to win. I did do this but one rather persistant player (s) proved a very stubborn nut to crack. I kept thinking every day i would eventaually break him and kept adding to my lead every day but never by enough.

When i played one day for 20 hours but this player was still going strong i knew it could not be one person and this was reafirmed when i begain studying their overall play which changed from super tight to loose and very loose. When i spotted the change over in players i called it quits and played for second.

I agree with Creidhne, there are just as many fish as there were 5 years ago. My game has developed but I see the same mistakes over and over again (calling a flush draw to a pot bet is an obvious one)

I don't think you're heeding advice and working on 1 table. When you get 1 table right, you can then multiply it by as many tables as you like.

I criticised 5LEEPDONKER for his style of play, it was break even at best but he won leaderboard's and rakeback. £ for £, I may have a far better ROI than him but he's probably has the last laugh cash wise.

Do what works right for YOU.

there are cake monkeys and there are good poker players. very, very, few are good enough to be both at the same time.

though clearly there are a fair few delusional enough to think they are, even in the face of cold, hard, facts.

Im impressed that you have used the word evolved, I have a PhD in the biosciences (brag, brag, head expanding now so much my brains will leak through my ears). Now the question is do you actually know the proper meaning of the word evolution and its part in a dynamic system. Your statements so far leads me to think that you have a couple of misconceptions, and, you are making a few statements that are inconsistent.

I would say that there are as many bad players today as there were 2 years ago, but that the dynamic styles of play have altered. The good players are adapting into new poker niche's, but the old style ''grinder sharks'' have multiplied and are not so well adapted to the new environment. The clever ones will analyse, adapt, prosper and flourish. The not so clever will see diminishing rates of return and bemoan the fact that things ain't like they used to be, and, oh how unlucky I have become. Similar story to the history of chess, football, cricket etc. etc. The old good becomes the new bad as players get used to the style of play the more common it becomes.

My advice hasn't altered, analyse or become a fossil.

TF I don't multi table [smiley:crazy]

guys this is either a wind up or the OP is mentally ill. either way further dialouge is ev-.

Not a winning week in 18 months must have shattered bankroll.

If I were you I'd drop down a few levels if you have anything left.

It does not sound unlucky to me. Just sounds like bad bankroll management and a way to go broke.

Hi again guys. As always i genuinely thank everyone who has taken the time to reply. Its much appreciated.

Firstly to crediline, i think you have no need to be so pedantic of my misuse of the word evolve. I am sure you got what i meant without the need to corrent my misuse of a particular word.

Now let me say once again i stand by everything i said in my opening post. I am not fishing. However, i should qualify a few things. I have not had 52 x 1.5 consecutive losing weeks. I have taken some time off so the ammount of consecutive losing weeks is more in the region of 30-40. I like to travel and have done so a lot. Also i got married and did not play at all for a few months either side of my wedding. Furthermore, i would say i probably could have turned around some of those losing weeks but i felt i was running so bad that a lot of times i called quits for the week after a 3-4 days. The way i have been running although i could have turned around some of those losing weeks i probably would have lost more overall.

Secondly, my rake and bonus compensated a lot for my actual loses, so that must be beared in mind to those who say why am i not skint.

I still believe i have the skills to pay the bills LOL so was not looking advice on how to change my play. I do accept most folk were offering well intentioned constructive criticism. Someone mentioned i must just play my own cards lol.With respect i dont think i could have 4 good winning years playing poker if i did not realise other players are dealt the same number of cards.   If i needed help i would have no problem asking for it. I have a complete indifference to poker. I neither hate it or love it. Its simply the best way i have found over the past 5 years to pay the rent. If i thought i could not make poker play i would stop in a second. I dont have any pride when poker is concerned and i know my limitations.

The question i was asking was just how bad i am running if you accept my EV in nearly all of my losing weeks was positive. Of course, you will only have to take my word for that. i mean on a scale of 1 to 10 how far up the totem pole i am.

Some of the comments about my poor poker play i found a little unkind and not very helpful. Some of the advice i also found plain wrong. However, i have no need to justify my own play or correct any advice on general poker play i disagree with. I have given an honest appraisal. Its up to other what they wish to believe.

Mostly, i thank everyone though who has tried to give genuine advice.

At the moment i just feel everytime i open up a table to play poker i have an almighty curse to contend with. I thought expressing my frustrations might be a help.

Only one question before you get any answers. On what basis are you saying that you were positive ev? How have you worked it out, it takes a serious amount of calculations to estimate effectively. Its beyond me, so I use HEM (and even this program is only half the story). If you haven't calculated it your statement is meaningless and you have no idea whether you are positive or negative.

I'm sure we will all take your word for it, no sweat off our noses. But, we arn't important.

The one thing i dont accept is that there are as many poor players today as there were two years ago. But thats another argument, and i am not bemoaning this fact. And it is a fact.I can only think the person who made this statement does not play poker. Nor am i bemoaning the belief that general poker play has improved. Players are allowed to get better. I dont see the point in bemoaning something i have no control over.

''I have a complete indifference to poker. I neither hate it or love it. Its simply the best way i have found over the past 5 years to pay the rent.''

I've never met a person good at their job unless they liked and enjoyed it.

I've met a lot of people who say that they are good at their job even though they don't like it.

People say the funniest things, and the funniest thing is that most people believe themselves.

Paddletoe

I wasn't being pedantic about the use of the word evolution I was trying to explain the meaning of the word. Most people do not understand what it actually entails. When you say that the players have got better what you mean is that there are more players who play similarly to yourself. Its now a new environment, the grinders are not the sharks (although I use this term loosely) that they were. That way of playing is no longer as good because more and more people understand it. Therefore to be good in this new environment you have to play differently. Not to change is to stagnate, how many old professional cardroom players are still active? very few; they all thought that the internet newbies were lousy. They didn't adapt, they became fossils still convinced that they were good and that the newbies were bad.

Made an interesting read all that

Wheres the rizla

Crediline i dont know how you can disagree that players have not improved. You seem to think the general improvement in poker is due to new players. The do agree that the better players now can play what you call the grinders a lot better. This is my book is players improving. The better players now did not just fall from the sky and take up poker- they are mostly players who have changed style and are generally better.

As for my indifference to poker i dont follow your logic you have to love poker to be good at it. If i think i can earn more playing poker than i can doing another line of work that is my motivation.

Some people are very lucky in that they have a job they love. But ask a bricklayer if he loves his work. Are you saying there are no good bricklayers.

Anyway back at the ranch. Had another brutal few hours at the tables. More postive EV but more money lost. I really used to like bad beats. Bad beats never tilted me. I knew the more bad beats you were getting the easier the game was to win at over the long run. The problem now is that the long run seems very long. Playing my little heart out but not sure how much more i can take.

If you understand probability crediline would you not concede that one person can be so unlucky over a long period? Probability normally finds an average over the long run but there can be extremes at the end of every range of probability.

If i had to explain my run of bad luck to a non poker person i would say imagine you break your leg in a freak fall and then when you are mended you break your other leg, then your arm, then slip a disk, then break the two legs that your broke before all over again. I give you its a very unlikely scenario but i would bet you probabilty is actually on my side that some people have experienced such a run of freak accidents.

If you havent had a winning week in 18 months then you are a fish donk plain and simple! If you are gaining SNE doing this then your a fish donk who gets great bonuses. If however youre not getting SNE then your a fish donk loser who needs to give up the game.

Even some of the worst fish online luckbox a week every now and again.

Good morning folks. A bit of good news at last. Just had a winning start to the week after turning things around from my previous post. Well, its a begining.

In reply to a previous question about how i know i have a positive EV for nearly all of my losing weeks i would say i know i have a positive EV the same way i know today is Monday. I really dont think its important to know my exact EV and of course i could not accurately say what it is to very precise figures. All i can give is a rough and honest estimate.

Anyhows i wish you all a good week.

All i can give is a rough and honest estimate.

A delusion is a fixed belief that is either false, fanciful, or derived from deception. In psychiatry, it is defined to be a belief that is pathological (the result of an illness or illness process) and is held despite evidence to the contrary. As a pathology, it is distinct from a belief based on false or incomplete information, dogma, stupidity, apperception, illusion, or other effects of perception.

This will be my last comment on this thread. Credhne i have no desire to get into an argument with you. You seem to want to pscoanalyse me. If i needed to find out the meaning of delusional i really could have just looked it up in a dictionary. I simply answered your question about EV in the only way i could. I like to think i am my own biggest critic and i have no problems ever asking for advice from people smarter and with more expertise than myself. I bet on sports and i play poker as my only two sources of money. I make enough to get by and being delusional is not an extravagance i can afford. I have responsibilities which i take seriously and seldom let my activities in gambling become overtaken with either pride or being delusional. But according to you i would say that anyway and it would merely prove your point. 

Even if i was delusional you could have been a more humble person made your points in a nicer way. Its good to be good at something and i figure you have a background in pscology but sometimes its nicer just to be nice.You should try it sometime.

Thanks once again to everyone who has taken the time to reply with genuine and well intentioned advice. I hold no ill feeling towards the nay sayers. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

Wishing you all a very nice week whatever your up to.

paddletoe

You have to work on hands played not the time frame, by your posts im guessing that its well over 200k,
its nearly impossible to run consistantly bad for that long. When i first started playing i was beating
£100nl and $200nl for around 10/bb/100 even if i had the bankroll i know i couldnt beat $200nl these days
as the games have changed so much. I would say that the $100 tables are on par with the $400 tables from when you started out. How have you adapted? Also if you multitable 100nl or above without HEM you are just burning money.
gl

Putting it nicely.

Once upon a time there was a world full of paper.
The paper grew strong and multiplied.
The paper was the boss.
Into this world there came some scissors, just a few to start with;
and the scissors fed upon the paper and grew strong and multiplied.
and the numbers of paper reduced and shrank and scissors ruled the world.
All of a sudden a rock was born.
The rock was strong and fed on the scissors.
The rock was master of this new world,
and the number of rocks increased
and the number of scissors decreased
and the rocks they ruled the world.
But the rocks had a weakness
they were steady and unchanging
they had beat the scissors, surely they were masters.
But the paper could mass together and beat the rocks.
Now the world evolved
In some places there was a lot of paper
In some places there were a lot of scissors
In some places there was a lot of rocks

Question: What is it best to be, a rock, scissors or paper?

Playing 16 tables at once, take a look outside the window the countryside has changed. No longer is it Spring, an icy wind has blown through the land. Not got better, or worse its just changed. But its spring on the other side of the world, and in between its autumn and summer. Its difficult to look out of 16 windows at once.

Some rocks are better than other rocks
Some paper is better than other paper
Some scissors are better than other scissors

Are you a rock in a paper world. Are you a good rock or a bad rock?
Not a question I can answer, I need to keep records and look out of the window to see what the wheather is like.

so to sum up :

for a large chunk of the 18 months he wasnt playing

when he loses at poker its because he is unlucky

when he loses a rake race its because others are cheating

he doesnt need any software tools as he does everything in his head

he asks for advice, but when given it wont listen

Paddletoe,

You seem to be a nice guy but you are burying your head in the sand.  People are giving you good advice on this thread but you are just not listening. 

The fact that you can trace your losing run back to getting burnt in a rake race is not just a coincidence it is almost certainly one of the main reasons, a heavy blow you have never recovered from.  It only takes a minute change in your game for everything to go off the rails and yet you refuse to accept any responsibility for your 'ill fortune' and refuse to use software to help you find where your leak(s) is/are.

to say I am -EV because I know it but refuse to let cheap software prove it is 100% proof you are not accepting the inevitable truth, your game is damaged, you have not evolved and you are refusing to accept it so your downward spiralk is inevitable.

try using HEM, try playing one or two tables at a time and try actually looking at your game properly, if you dont then as sure as eggs is eggs the next 18 months will seem like deja vu!

My last right of reply. Jeepers creepers, so much negative aura on this thread. Its not good for my karma.

Forgive me if i dont take any lessons on poker or life from the poster named Crediline. I came on here and have been very honest and frank. When your on a bad run you need someone reciting poetry, handing out second rate pschoanalysis and basically being two ends of a p rick like you need a hole in the flippin head.

I take exception to being called delusional and also his comment that no one can be good at their job unless they like it. Most folk dont like their jobs but work hard at doing something they dont espacially like to make ends meet. Try going on to a factory floor or a building site and ask the workers if they like their job. If they say no tell them they are no good at it then.
I would not normally do this but cretilin can have my poker alias if he fancies a little challenge match. I am happy to play 100 games of sit and goes over a one day period for any reasonable ammount. Infact i will extend the invitation to any of my knockers on this thread. Not because i feel the need to prove myself but rather because i dont like folk who get kicks out of knocking.

That shall be all.

after a prolonged losing run i always take a day out and wade through a load of hand histories. its depressing, its boring, but you have to do it.

most of us, to a certain extent, convince ourselves that we are better players than is actually the case. if you are consistently losing over as many hands as the OP claims to have played you are either not good enough for the number of tables you are playing or the level played at, you have serious leaks in your game, or you have poor bankroll management.

unless of course you are a multitabling cake **** whose leaderboard/promos/cake money more than offsets a -3 or -4 percent ROI.

I appreciate the last two posts. Thanks fellas for at least being well intentioned and giving what you think is good advice. I dont mean to be defensive. Its just one particular poster on this thread is really starting to wind me up.

The only reason i have not used poker tracker before is because i am a real technophobe. I need to get my wife to change a plug. If someone would be kind enough to give me a little help with using poker tracker i would gratefully accept. As a way of thank you i would offer some suitable gift in return.

I always appreciate helpful and well meaning advice even if i may not always agree with it.

One thing i have no illusions about is being a better player than i am. For 4 years up until my slump i had a consistent hourly rate of around $50 a hour but for the past while i could not win a **** bingo raffle.

i rarely play cash so cant really help but these links will give an overview and some more in depth info.

even if you dont use it, you need to be aware that other people do. if you are playing as much as you claim many of your opponents will have your hand ranges spot on. if you play the same way day in and day out you may as well be getting your cards face up :

http://www.pokerplayer.co.uk/news/features/8737/poker_tracking_software.html

http://www.pokertracker.com/products/

if its any consolation, november and december were my first losing months in 3 years, and my first 5 showdowns today ive lost with :

ak vs k9
aa vs 10 10
kk vs qq
a 10 vs a 5
a 10 vs a 3

so things wont be geting better for me any time soon.

Paddletoe

I'm honestly not trying to be mean.

Let me explain. Scientists have shown that the natural state of human beings is to delude themselves. That is fact, not to be deluded is to say that you are a god. Human beings are very good at convincing themselves that they have good judgement. This is a fallacy, humans are not good judges, that is a scientific fact. There is only one way to find out whether you have made a good judgement and that is analysis.

You are under the impression that I am having a go at you personally. Thats up to you. I call you deluded, and you are - fact. You take that as an insult, I give it out as scientific fact. You are not alone, I pride myself on being deluded, I am a human after all.

Something to consider: If human beings are not easily persuaded and deluded and to a certain extent programmable why does marketing work? what are the secrets of neuro-liguistic programming? Why do scientific experiments show that it is an innate property of humans to follow certain patterns of behaviour? Why are you more likely to be employed if you take a cup of hot coffee and ask a prospective employer to hold it while you tie your shoelaces?

Why is the most powerful argument to say that I'm not gullible, but everyone else is.

Only when you can say yes I am a moron and truly believe it will you be welcomed into the ways of the force my young padewan.

I thank you crediline for taking the time to write what i consider a more well meaning reply. I apologise for some of the words i used in a previous post and the rather childish challenge i offered to you and others. Neither of those things are normally in my nature.

Getting off poker for a moment i find such things as pscology very interesting. I would concede that there is a chance i have been deluding myself but i would surely need a motivation to do so, the obvious one being that i dont want to admit that i am not as good as i think. But i have never thought that. I have a very mercenary attitude to poker and betting. For me its all about money, although money does not motivate me in every other aspect of life. I would rather be known as the lucky so and so who won the world series of poker than have recognition as a brilliant poker player who is admired but has won a lot less.

For 4 years up until my slump i had a consistent hourly rate of around $50 a hour but for the past while i could not win a **** bingo raffle.


I asked on my other post how have you adapted? If you have tell us how, if not theres the reason you are "running bad"

I have a very unproductive lifestyle in that i have no other source of income other than poker and betting.I mean in terms of productive work if i got run over by a bus society as a whole would not be any worse off. Thats rather sad but very true.Yet, if i deluded myself, at least to the degree you think, the rent would simply not get paid. The day the rent does not get paid will be the day my delusional state of mind becomes fact but until that day i say with respect that you can not give what are your own opinions as facts.

if you think your brain, while 10 tabling, can match opponents with computer software then you are even more deluded than i thought.

look at the date on the link to the article in poker player i posted. poker has moved on, you havent. you are a dinosaur.

if poker is your main source of income then you should take it seriously or stop wittering on about bad beats. they are part and parcel of the game, everyone gets them. you win at any form of gambling where you have an edge. you no longer have an edge at poker because your self confessed technophobia means you are no longer competitive.

you have repeatedly been told this by people on this thread who are better poker players than you or i will ever be.

but i would surely need a motivation to do so, the obvious one being that i dont want to admit that i am not as good as i think.  Thats the nail on the head. Its one of the most difficult things for a human being to cope with, the knowledge and understanding that they are not just fallable but complete prannocks.
In the olden days our judgement was life and death on a daily basis, do I run, do I stand and fight that big cat, do I hide up the tree etc. You were at a severe disadvantage if you stopped to think. The cat wouldn't wait for you to ponder. Thinking is therefore hard and stressful and, to change your mind induces a subconcious ''biochemical low'' that your body naturally tries to avoid.

You are right because you lived, your judgement is good (pump those goody good chemicals around, feel better now, good ).

Our brain chemistry and sense of self has developed a strong set of mechanisms to control the way we think and we will often post-rationalise to convince us that our thought process was good. We all can see that somebody on LSD, alcohol and pot make sub optimal decisions, these drugs have an influence on our thought process. All bodily functions are controlled by chemistry, and all chemicals are drugs. Nothing you do, taste, touch or feel does not manipulate the way you think. Freedom of thought is a myth, it is always modified by ''the brain chemistry'' of the second.

But i have never thought that. Nobody admits to that

Paddletoe. Instead of playing 10 tables at 50c/$1 why not play 1 table at $5/$10? Have you tried this and if not why? Seems to me it's impossible to get a read on players playing that many tables at once. Far better to concentrate solely on just one table and up the stakes.

Not sure that telling someone who cant beat 100nl to play 1000nl is the way to go.

The above graph is of a stt player, with an 81 rating, one of those stars next to his name and an average buyin of $147.
A few questions.
Is he a bad player who got lucky to begin with and will eventually lose?
Is he a good player, whose variance will even out and the upward graph will return?
If the graph stopped after 5000 games what sort of player would you say he was? A very good player or one who was just lucky to be winning over 5000 games? Lucky over 5000 games?
How would you rate him as a player if you only saw the graph from the peak to the end? What advice would you have for him? 4500 games, $24,000 plus loss. Get the hell out of there, right?
What point does the sample size indicate the true ability of a player or does it never?
I'll tell you who the player is if you want, I've played him, but it might cloud your judgement. I posted the graph because I am sympathetic to what paddletoe is saying, but at the same time I realise poker is evolving, players are probably getting better, but I mean, $27,000 profit over 5000 games, can't just be luck can it? $24,000 loss over 4500 games? Can't just be bad luck, he must be a donk right? You decide.

I feel like i am back on my pschiatrists couch.[:x]

But now can i ask you a question credline. You could very well be right, but you fail to take into account the old chesnut of probability.

My turn to ask you a question. Would you agree with the asertion that given an infinite ammount of time a monkey could compile the complete works of shakespeare?

Applying probabilty to poker lets say there are few million poker players in the world. Would you agree that if you then applied EV to this equation there will be some players at both extremes of EV.
I am not asking you if its likely i am one of them. I am just asking is it not possible.
I would definately agree pscology and the mind is a big part of poker and life in general but so is probability.

There are quite a few million players of poker. There are undoubtably some players who lie at the extremes of luck. Which are you? I have no idea I haven't seen the evidence. More to the point neither have you.

I have been a winning player overall for four or so years. Am I a good player? Am I a lucky player? I would say sometimes I am a shark, sometimes I am a fish, sometimes I am lucky, sometimes I am unlucky, sometimes I over analyse and turn into a fish, sometimes I under analyse and turn into a fish. Sometimes my analysis is spot on (or gives the appearence of being so) sometimes it is lousy (or appears so). Check out my Aaaaggghhhh thread and you can make up your own mind where I stand at present. Quite a few will have done so and concluded I'm a complete donkey, some will think I've been a bit unlucky over recent games.

The biggest change in my fortunes occured when i changed my name a couple of years ago. I had built up a reputation on the site and many would fold automatically and I would completely dominate them. Once my name changed my fortunes changed. All that had changed was peoples perception of me. Was I better or worse after the name change? Was it good luck before and bad luck afterwards? I've played quite a few players who dominate me at the tables, are they good? or am i playing a myth and my submissiveness and loses against them a self fulfilling prophecy?

Poker is a complex dynamic game and we can fool ourselves all the time. Everytime you sit at a table is different and new. Thats what makes it such a fascinating game and why I enjoy it as a hobby. I don't play it to make money (money is just the way I keep score).

I use HEM, as you know, but I only started using it in the last 18 months. Prior to that I would play one table at once so that I could analyse and watch the styles of the players. This is easy enough in two tables. impossible with 9 - 16 tables.

When you play that amount of tables you are following a set of rules and making instant judgements with scant evidence. If your maths is good enough and you automatically know your chance of holding the best hand against random holdings then effectively you are playing as a robot and playing by pattern recognition. Like a master chess player who plays multiple games at once. The best poker players are the best because they constantly analyse and get better at recognising certain patterns. Who are the best player's, I've no idea, the ones at the top may have been lucky and people play scared against them, does that make them better? often players are better because we think they are.

God this is heavy glad im thick.

Sit on the fence why don't you Creid! 

I feel a bit like columbo coming back with another comment after i said i had posted my last reply on this thread. But this really is my last.

Just a wee note really. Nothing to do with poker. We could argue about that till the cows come home and maybe on another thread i will post some poker replies if i think i have a worthwhile opinion to add to someone esles post. Although, i might not have much credibility left after this thread.

Thanks one last time to everyone who has posted on this thread. It means a lot when folk go out of their way to offer helpful advice. Sometimes a kind word from a person you dont even can mean a lot. I thank you all very much.

Sorry if i came across as bemoaning bad luck. In 5 years playing poker i have never said a mean word even in a chatbox to another player after a hand.

Finally i would like to apologise again for having a rather vulgar outburst to crediline. I hope you accept it in the same good spirit i offer it. It was very bad form of me to start a topic and be so very unkind to people taking the time to post replies.

All the very best folks.

Creidhne you need to pick your mushrooms with more care. Gypsy will advise. [;)]

I'm always up for a debate. I have multiple personalities my current one is an ass. Come to think of it most of them are asses.

it is mathematically possible for someone to run bad consistently for even longer than 18 months. anyone who disputes this has not got a very good grasp of the mathematics of the game.

however the fact you started losing and have continued to do so mutitabling at exactly the same time tracking software became more commonly used is almost certainly the reason for your malaise.

im pretty sure if you went to your local casino and played live the winning habit would return.

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chipfire227

if you think your brain, while 10 tabling, can match opponents with computer software then you are even more deluded than i thought.

To6tally agree with this, you CANNOT be successful in online poker without additional computer software to aid your game.

DONT CLOSE THREAD

Some of it is making a very good read / Interesting comments too

KEEP EM COMING

I am NOT in a position to give poker advise, But theres some things I would like to add

First of all, Anybody that is giving paddletoe negative / Abusive / Insulting comments is way out of order
(NOT intended at the helpers)

As a poker player I would also like to add that every player is different, And use different tac-tics and things that are available to help improve there game

Nobody has seen what losses Paddletoe might have experienced in all games over this time period

Maybe he's made some bad mistakes (EVERYONE DOES)

Maybe he's had his money in first, Then been handed some stupid beats. But in my opinion I wouldn't exactly put this down to multi tabling

"THE GOLDEN RULE"

MUST ALWAYS BE FOLLOWED

In my opinion CASH tables CAN be LETHAL, But CAN also be very rewarding

Breaking "THE GOLDEN RULE" is VERY risky, But to break "THE GOLDEN RULE" on the cash tables can lead anywhere

Multi tabling has its advantages, And I would NOT let that put me off

ALL THE BEST to Paddletoe VS OTHERS

One final reply. This time poker related.

The reason i started this thread was never to moan about my perceived bad luck. Taking the rough with the smooth is all part of poker and betting in general and i like to think i can do that pretty good.

Up until i hit this run in poker i always viewed a certain number of hands being enough to cancel out any bad luck. But my run has lasted months and i was really looking to know if anyone else had similar experiences. My frustration is not losing any one hand but the sheer accumulation of hands.

My perceived stubborness and defensive nature of some of my posts could be viewed as a failure to accept the truth. All i can say is that i have very few outstanding qualities and i am modestly a modest person but one of the real strengths i have is a very mathmatical mind when it comes to probabilty and this is telling me that everything i say is the truth.

I will happily admit some of the comments on this thread has concentrated my mind on my poker play in general and folk are right when they say i have also developed leaks in my play and also have not improved as much as other players. Sometimes i might play poker a lot for a month and then not play again for a few weeks so i am not a full time poker player. I like to always keep a few irons in the fire as far as earning money.

For 3 years i thought i had a big edge in poker at the stakes i played but nowadays i no longer think that. At best right now my edge is just about big enough to beat the rake. I think i can improve and will make an effort to do so and see how things go. It really all depends on how much i can make to justify the time spent playing.

When i first started playing poker after watching late night poker on tv i played poker because i loved the game. It was a hobby and initially i lost. I lost for two straight months but that was okay as the excitement i was getting from playing was for me a reasonable cost for a hobby i enjoyed. I bought myself a set of fab chips from america and table. The whole shooting match for home games.

Nowadays, i dont have that same love and passion. Its simply a means of making money. If i cant make money i will have a very easy decision to stop.

Overall, poker has been very kind to me. After my first losing two months i went for 4 years with no more than one or two losing months. I had more money than i ever had in my life,and travelled to most cities in europe. Up until then i never even had a passport. One week i set myself a target of winning enough money to treat my girlfriend for putting up with me! After 5 days i went out and bought her a horse.

I nearly always played cash as i found the concentration of long tournaments not suited to me. I honestly dont think i ran above average during my long winning spell. But i was never more than an ablove average player. The games at the time were just so easy to beat.

All the time i was very conscious that poker is a zero sum game and so i always had sympathy to people who lost. On more than one ocassion i busted players and gave them some money back to start again. I never had any poker buddies though. I always found most poker players who formed groups as very clichey. I never liked what i thought was a very superior attitude they had and the way they looked upon losing players.

Anyway back to luck. When i first started playing i placed well in a tournament. I won $13,000 but nearly all due to luck.

The question i keep asking myself to find a logical reason to the long run of bad luck i have experienced is whether  one lucky day when you win a lot of money at once be in someway equivalent to a very long long streak where you might lose the same ammount but spread over many  thousands of games.

If it is then i should not really be thinking i have been so unlucky.

In a reply to the comments about multi tabling i would agree with the view i might be playing too many tables. When i was running good i was one of very few people playing so many tables and this give me a big edge at a time when a lot of money would come to me simply because i was at more tables to take advantage of mistakes.

I am always debating what is the optimum number of tables to play. I would diagree that one or two tables are optimum but i am also wrong to play so many nowadays against increasingly better players. This is something i need to change.

My actaul style of play over the past year has also changed. Mostly forced upon me because i have lost confidence due to my running. But others may say i have also not adapted enough too and they would certainly be right to a degree. However, when you know your getting your money in so good time and time again and players are drawing as dead as hector its easy to think your doing nothing wrong.   Also the perception of my style of play from other players point of view. Before, i was more agressive but my image to other players was that of an even more agressive and loose player than in reality i was. When players see another player with 4 or 5 buy ins at a table they have a certain perception of them. They are either a player to be feared because they are good or a player who you can call down beacuse they are loose. Either perception was good because the other players may think they know which type you are but you know the real truth is that you are neither of those things but something in between.


Nowadays, i am running so bad, even accounting for my own failings, that all other players see is a player who is topping up their buy in. My stack sizes could not instill fear in a mouse at the moment.

In terms of how better general play has become at the stakes i play at i would say the three biggest things are the ability to play position poker, understanding pot control and knowing how to adapt to deep stack play. I used to see so many players lose a whole nights profit by staying at tables with big stacks but not knowing how to play deep. With some players you could just put them into corners they did not want to be in and they would give you a full buy in without ever seeing the river and with others a pair of aces was still a pair of aces on the flop even with 3 buy ins. Nowadays you would need two aces in your hand and another two up their sleeve to get 3 buy ins from a lot of players.



Three years ago it was very rare to come across many players who understood these parts of the game at the stakes i played.

But players are allowed to get better so i have no problem with that. Its just how i see how poker has changed.

My actaul style of play over the past year has also changed. Mostly forced upon me because i have lost confidence due to my running

You see you are beginning to accept that your game is not as good as it was, a good place to start.

As I said in my previous post that rake race you chased and got mangled in will have been the stafrt of it, not the bad luck but the knock ur confidence took in that period.  The fact that you had been a consistent winner, changed your playing habits to chase a rake race and then got mangled is not coincidence.

Poker is easy when ur winning but it sounds like to me that the first real obstacle you had faced in years you failed to negotiate it and then your refusal to accept something had gone wrong sentenced you to 18 months of misery.

I hope that you are taking all this advice Paddletoe, I have one thing to add.

In the last couple of years new software is available. One of particular relevance are the programs that let you know how many tables a player is active on. A new breed of shark has evolved. One that specialises in targeting multi-tablers. These predators actively specialise in targeting multi-tablers for the following reasons.

1) It is not possible to play optimally when multi-tabling (even with the aid of poker trackers and HUD's)

2) It is very easy to accumulate data on multi-tablers and log the patterns the mistakes that they make as they produce so many hands played, an increase in data held makes decision making a lot easier. Humans have a tendency to repeat errors.

3) Multi-tablers are fish fry to this breed of shark.

How many of this breed have you singled out? There are numerous programs to help them find you. The fisherman now have sonar and all you have is a rod.

One last point. I have been thinking a lot about luck and probability and i have an idea which can take all the luck out of cash play poker.

For all ins with cards still to come it would be easy to have software on sites so the players involved in all ins could take the equity out of the hand. All players invloved would simply click a button to agree. It would only apply if everyone involved in the hand agreed. Whether two players or more. No one would be worse off. The site would still get the rake and the players who agreed to take the equity in money would be happy.

You see it a lot in high stake games on tv where players agree to run the hand twice when there are big pots. I always wonder why they just dont agree an equity deal instead. They obviously want to reduce variance so why not do it right.
On one of the sites i use it shows the odds when your all in with cards to come. It would simply be a matter of showing both the odds and equity and players could take the equity if they wished.

Even at the relatively small stakes i play there are times when two players can play a hand in a optimum way but there are 4 full buy ins on the table on the flop with one player having say an overpair and the other drawing to flush with an overcard to the overpair. Its close to a toss up. Lets say its 50% each, most players would rather have their money back less a bit of rake.

Even at times when i get my money in behind a lot of times i would agree to get the equity i have in the hand. I would simply be thinking, okay i was outplayed in the hand. I will just take the 30% equity in the $200 pot. I have lost nothing in the long terms and neither has the player ahead in the hand.

If its your job you need to be professional and get the tools. Personally for me its a hobby.

paddletoe it is ofcourse possible for a player to lose for 18 months due to running very bad, but it is so unlikely it is almost impossible, especially with the number of hands you play, I assume you have played over a million hands, 10 tabling for 18 months. Another thing, when playing 10 tables, if you get a bad beat on 1 table it is easy in your head to just forget about what happened on the other 9 and remember that bad beat and so you percieve that you are running bad when infact you may not be. I think the only way you will know is if you go over your hands, which you should start doing, i use HEM but i rarely use it whilst im playing, I use it more for analysing my game afterwards and finding where i am losing value. Even if you are an +EV player it is still important to go over your hands or else how can you improve? And as poker is your source of income it is obviously important for you to improve as much as possible even if you are a winning player, because why give anyone any edge.

Personally i think the first thing you should do is play less tables, you can't pay attention to different players on 10 tables without the use of software. I think you also need to change how you play, after 18 consecutive losing months, you must expect that playing the same way the next month will result in the same outcome, a loss.

paddletoe, listen to the guys saying you need software. You will see the benefits very quickly, and i'm fairly certain you will be turning our losing weeks into winning ones. If you don't, then i suggest poker isn't for you. I see that you also do sports betting, i also do the same and its my main source of income, so maybe better for you to stick with that.

For poker i use Poker Office 5, and its been a God send for me in both tournaments and cash tables. You can download a trial version at http://www.pokeroffice.com/poker-software-download.html

If you want to get the full version for free, you can do what i did and register at one of their affiliate sites, and play a bit of poker until you meet the requirements.[;)]

HTH

... additionally, please stop saying this is your 'last post' and then making another. There is nothing wrong with continuing on this subject. Although i hope you will be continuing this debate by saying you have tried using software that has been recommended to you, and that you are seeing the benefits.

Good luck!

Yes i have been a bit of a tool not getting the tools. Glad we can agree with something at last.

I actually feel very optimistic after getting my ear clipped by some of the posts on here which told me off for thinking i am too kool for school.

paddletoe, i've been playing poker from pretty much when it started on the internet. For all those years i'd never used software and was pretty much holding my own in terms of winning/losing. In early 2010, i had a pretty big win in an MTT, which prompted me to pursue poker full time. It was only then that i started using software, and i quickly realised that i should have been using it for all those years previous. Hindsight is a wonderful thing i guess!

Download that program i gave the link for and give it a go, see how you get on with it. Most people here use Holdem Manager, i've actually never tried it because Poker Office 5 for me is all i need. I never play poker now without it running, i feel naked without it [:p]

gypsy ... which soft ware would u recomend for sng's and mtt's as i don't play cash games.... TIA

I agree with the poster who said the mind can make you out a fool when it comes to selectively remembering bad beats. There is no doubt an element of that with me but i would maintain its only to a very small degree. The facts are i am hardly winning any hands at all so its very hard for my mind to be fooled. I could not win an egg and spoon race!

I can recall several long sessions when i dropped over a thousand a time and thinking afterwards when i had the usual post mortem after a dodgy nights sleep that i could not have done a single thing different.

Over the period i am talking about i maintain i have run obscenely bad but my play has also not improved while other players have. I am certain i should have been in profit but probably just by enough to justify the hours put in. As it is with rake and bonuses offsetting the loses i am about level.

But its not much of a job when you have the same ammount of money at the end of the week that you had at the start of it.
My story of bad luck is probably tedious to most so i shant mention it again but my venting my frustrations on here has been helpful in highlighting many other flaws which i have control over so thanks as always for those who have made good contributions.
I played 6 six hours yesterday and won $350. I would like to say i played like a champ but mostly i just ran very good so maybe its a good sign.

May i please ask what poker software folk would suggest that i could try and where i can get it. The best suited to me from everything i have said. My thanks in advance.

I only use Poker Office 5, i think its probably the most comprehensive software out. Extremely useful for MTTs when i play them. And i think one of its best and most useful features in the table overlay which will give you pot odds and your own personal odds of improving your hand. After using it for a while, you will know the odds yourself without needing it to tell you.

Download a trial version through the link i posted, its free for 300 hands. And getting a full version is easy, just sign up through one of their affiliates and meet the requirements.[:)]

thanks will do

My last post was directed at ddomo, but is equally relevant to you paddletoe. Give it a go. [:)]

holdem manager (HEM) is good, i would also recomend using 2 + 2 forums if you want to improve your game and for good faqs on using HEM. You may well of ran bad paddletoe but its always worth remembering a very good player can profit even when running bad at the stakes you play, think its time to get that you are running bad out of your head and start improving your game.

Thanks Steve, unless someone can suggest a more suitable software i will try holdem. I am assuming there are different versions. If so which would be best for first time user. I am assuming you get it out for a 6 or 12 month period at a time. Would that be right. Also where is the best place to buy it from?

I'm not sure if Holdem Manager has a trial version, if so then give it a go. Poker Office 5 can be a bit daunting at first, but doesn't take that long to get to grips with it.

I'm sure Holdem Manager has a way of getting it free as well, by signing up with one of their affiliates.

Whichever you choose to try, good luck and post here if you are seeing the benefits, or not as the case may be. [:p]

HEM has a 30 day trial version

Which site are u playing on betfair? My advice would be to give the game up and find some other way of making money, there are so many people that think poker is an easy way of making cash, in fact it is much harder than most jobs mentally, you can run good for 6 years then run bad for ten years at the end of the day you are gambling for a living and are trying to pay the bills with coin tosses half the time.....i honestly take my hat off to the guys that do make a living from poker but really for the vast majority it should be a hobby and nothing else.......gl

for stts i only use sharkscope, and thats just to get a rough idea of what i'm up against. the  biggest weapons in your armoury are your notes and your hand histories.

i tend to stick any individual hand histories i think are worth looking at into a folder as i'm going along, then go through them at the end of a session. i will also look at them during a game where a hand has gone to showdown and a player mucks his losing hand, as you can see what they have mucked. this is a great way of identifying the fish and the calling stations.

HEM is a one off payment, i can't remember how much it cost as it was a while ago that i got it, but i got it from their website, if you google holdem manager it is the first link. There is also a trial version as BruceWillis has pointed out

also sharkscope is useless to you as a cash player. (and almost useless if your stt or mtt player)

I disagree about sharkscope being useless Steve. If there is a graph with a player that is on a nosedive thats very handy to know ..............


er

um

can you still tell them to stop showing it [smiley:crazy]

i'd say its more interesting than useful, can't tell you anything about how a player plays, need lots of games for anything meaningful and the only useful thing is if the player is a winning or losing player. My graph on it looks ridiculous