O/T

seriously though. look at the bet and what it represents...

when i looked:

4/9 brum
4/7 wolves
2-1 hull


how, HOW can that be right??????????????????????? Price wise they are way way too big. imo of course :)

it all depends on the signings and how they fit in

newcastle spend millions and perform terrible

wigan not a lot and perform very well

They wont have unlimited funds but a well run club and will have the funds to allow them to compete in their league within the league and certainly that will include the promoted teams and the bottom half of this seasons league.

It depends how they spend it and B rown gets lots of stick (particularly over teh half time talk) but he has been successful everywhere he has been so again no reason to say that he should fail

brum and wolves are yoyo teams
pompey are skint
will stoke and sunderland do as well?
burnley will struggle
what about wigan and bolton

there are a lot of teams who could well struggle imo

bad teams WILL stay up

of course it depends on that canary, but the thread is about current prices.

if hull are seen spending 30m£ in the summer then they will be a bigger price but have a much better chance obviously. But based on the info to hand I can't see them doing very well at all next year.

And to make wolves 4/7 and them 4-9 to go down is incredible imo!

Lastly, yeah HUll will strengthen etc etc etc. But so will Brum, Wolves, Sheff Utd/Burnley, and probably anyone else involved. So to improve on their season then Hull are gonna have to strengthen MORE than the other teams do. And when u look at the size of the club/spening power they are probably one of or the smallest of the whole lot!

and to make wolves 4-7 and them 2-1 to go down is incredible*

One has been relegated the last twice they came up the other has stayed up at the first attempt

where are hull 2/1 to go down anyway?

people are trying to get 6/4 on here?

currently 5/4 to back

The point is that the Championship is so vastly different from the Premier League that generally promoted teams need to be pretty ruthless and rip their promoted team apart to survive unless they are full of young talented improving players. Therefore, however poor the team, anyone who is already in the PL will be better prepared and equipped with a better base for survival.

In addition they are able to offer a better chance of surivial and that assists in attracting players.

Next yr relegation imo:

Portsmouth (NAP)
Birmingham
Burnley (if they go up) / any one from Stoke or Bolton or Sunderland


I think Sheff UTd and wolves both survive...

anyway time for bed, will be good to see what happens in the summer and next season.

wolves just above evens

so what's the 4/7?

are you cutting and pasting this or did you miss the playoff result today?

bf currently

burnley 1.6
brum 1.85
wolves 2.04
hull 2.26

Soap 24 May 22:16


Seen loads of people say Hull certs to go down next year.

9-4 against at moment - not sure what you can get on some1 says got £2k

http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoEvType&id=1




enjbenjy 24 May 22:19


9/4 wow I was expecting odds on.




arbboy 24 May 22:20


huge price. must be a PALP. cant be the correct price. probably supposed to be 4/9




Soap 24 May 22:26


Arbboy it is correct price look at other odds and work out book %





The entire thread is a discussion about how 9/4 is a good bet ffs canary

obv bookies have noticed this already and cut them hugely!!!!!

lol i wondered that too!

The reason they have been cut is due to Burnleys promotion!

well if it was with skybet how could you get decent money on?
and how could you lay off?

LOL wtf , how the F U CK did I miss that? :^0

Ok so Burnely to slide back down anyway.

surely they should have lengthened on burnley being promoted no?!

Prob means lay off on here, but that contradicts point that its not tying money up for year as actually will tie up twice as much

read the thread ffs canary

the entire discussion is about betting them at 9-4

soap also raises the point about how much money u may be able to have on

etc etc etc

anyway hull are 6/4 with skybet now
and the max yesterday was prob a tenner

yeah gd point Mike

On the should lengthen I mean

Soap 24 May 22:16


Seen loads of people say Hull certs to go down next year.

9-4 against at moment - not sure what you can get on some1 says got £2k
http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoEvType&id=1



but yes u are right, altho season long bets they will usually lay nice amounts (remember they also trade out of big liabilities if they have to)

usually season long even an iffy bookie will let u have £500+ on.

well they're not 9/4 now so what's the point in discussing 9/4?

you're suggesting what you'd do like trade out but given they are way less that's an imaginary scenario

surely the discussion should move with the prices as people will want to bet no?

Yeah my point was that they're not 9/4, 2/1 anymore they are 6/4 now and not worth a bet at that price. I did say I thought they'd be odds on beginning of the thread but that may have been an over reaction. The only places I could get on are bet365 or Betfair where they are 2.4 and 10/11. Not worth it now.

there's no point discussing betting a price that you can no longer punt

it looks like a rick if it existed and not sure if anyone got much on

If indeed it was a rick and at 10/11 its a definite LAY imo :)

nah the point about them lengthening not really that important cause they compile the books knowing that there is still a match to be played don't they

otherwise u could have ur house on one team to win a playoff final and then hedge ur money off by bettig other teams at better prices to get relegated and then when resuly was known just back your way out of it again

if u know what i mean...

yeah but i still think it would make a diff and be factored into the prices

like when man u price for CL lengthened when barca late goal went in vs chelsea

at 10-11 then i tend to agree with you that maybe it is a lay! But 10-11 would certainly constitute a 'no bet' for me anyway!

GN :)

tho anyway the price would lenghten very marginally as sheff were favs and better prepared for the prem

can't work out why it has shortened from 9/4 to 6/4

just a big rick i think

2nd season syndrome, won't stay up, doubt Stoke will either, quite a few other teams need to improve drastically.

Don't think Wolves or Brum will struggle too much next season, Burnley will.

rough guess would be Stoke, Hull and Burnley down with Sunderland, Pompey and Bolton just above them.

Peterborugh Utd promotion could be a good outside bet, seems pretty obvious that Darren has access to his dad's worldwide scouting network, anyone deemed good but not Man United good may well end up at Posh.

exactly!

thats the whole point u idiot! THE PRICE SOAP QUOTED WAS A RICK: 9/4!

THEREFORE WAY WAY WAY TOO BIG!!!!!!

THE 'NEW' PRICE (10-11 LOL) IS A JOKE AND DEFO NEEDS AVOIDING!

peterborough to get promoted, u must be joking!!!!!!! :^0 :^0

I'm going to keep an eye on Blackburn's head start in the handicap markets. I think they could be one of the big improver's on this season, will have to see the lines first though.

no need to swear or use caps lock

and they are 6/4 not 10/11

I did say outside bet!

swansea nearly made the playoffs in their first season

looked very classy

just drew way too many games

last time Peterborough went up twice in a row they finished 10th in the old 1st division and only a poor run in April stopped them making the play offs, now I know this was nearly 20 years ago but I will have a fiver on them going up depending on the odds, and they're definitely a lay in the relegation market.

u reckon tank? for me they are a team that are gonna be destined to finish just below mid table every season for a good while! even tho they now have the 'allardyce factor', i cant see them finishing ahead of villa, everton, fulham, tottenham or man city any time soon. So that just leaves 10th spot or worse! Too good to go down but too bad to do anythng else imo, allardycle may as well try and rebuild a team of kids and see if he can perform some kind of miracle!


what are the handicap marks for them?

and have u seen any head to head team markets for next season? Usually there is one or 2 that are totally wrong so might be worth looking into that of ur thinnking of having that sort of bet on blackburn.

if peterborough finish in the top 6 next season i will eat my ferkin hat. worst bet ever imo.

yeah the league looks quite strong now tbh

think they'll defo stay up tho

yeah the league looks strong but could have looked a lot stronger couldn't it!

lets assume charlton southampton norwich stayed up and leeds got promoted.... 4 big name clubs that arent gonna be there next year who would have got good attendances etc.

i'd say the best bets to go down have got to be plymouth, blackpool and then probably scunny unless scunny buy some kind of rock defender like brede hangeland from fulham!

They're not up yet I'll just be interested when they are. Villa had a bad 2nd half of the season and Barry might be leaving in the summer. Fulham may also get worse as a lot of teams with small squads can't balance Europe with the league especially in their 1st season in it. That's if they take the cup seriously of course. Finishing 9th 10th might be enough as they should be given a lot of points for being 15th this year. It's only a speculative bet but they are one of the teams who may improve a fair bit on this years placing and I can't say that about any of the others looking at the table.

Obv it depends on who Man City buy but I'm sure bookies will have that factored in too.

so we have in the champ next season:

newcastle
middlesborough
west brom
sheff utd
reading
preston
cardiff
Swansea
Ipswich
Bristol City
Queens Park Rangers
Sheffield Wednesday
Watford
Doncaster
Crystal Palace
Blackpool
Coventry
Derby
Nottingham Forest
Barnsley
Plymouth
Leicester
Peterborough
Scunny


LOL at peterborough finishing anywhere near a promotion place.

Good league tho that, get rid of the toilet and swap em with Leeds, Norwich and Brighton and you've got the 'real' championship imo.... :D

yeah fair enough tank i guess it just depends onthe actual h'cap mark and the price u get offered.

S**40-1 to win and 10-1 for promotion in the champ, i think a couple of 0's fell off to have a worthwhile bet lol

My mate was telling me Sidwell is lined up for Hull BTW. Might not go there but would be a decent signing for them.

definitely lol

I'd fancy West Brom, Sheff Utd and maybe even Leicester to go up from that lot tbh!

No way can I see Newcastle bouncing back and as for Middlesbrough, they'll prob just wilt away into obscurity again , :(

and of course QPR

but that would have to be a bet only after the summer business has been done :D

Can't be bothered to read this thread. But if there was anyone arguing that 9/4 wasn't a rick (which I presume there was by length of thread) then I'm 1.02-1.03 they are putting on a shirt tomorrow to work in an office job.

^^ I wish :(

sadly so :(

right I am going to bed GOOD NIGHT FOLLOWERS :x

Palace are my NAP for relegation next year.

Oh I see Pomp have strengthened their relegation fight by signing aaron fcking useless mokoena lolol

bookies priced up extra earlier this season

leave it till 2 weeks before the season

at championship level and below finances will play a more important role than squad strength next season imo

canaryboy 26 May 01:39




it looks like a rick if it existed and not sure if anyone got much on

People got on ffs

25 May '09 at 00:20 Sports Betting Barclays Premiership Relegation 2009/2010 (Hull) £-103.93 Internet View Receipt
25 May '09 at 00:19 Sports Betting Barclays Premiership Relegation 2009/2010 (Hull) £-100.00 Internet View Receipt

Though laying it on betfair will involve tying up several hundred pounds over the year

Jazzy_Jon 26 May 01:44
2nd season syndrome, won't stay up, doubt Stoke will either, quite a few other teams need to improve drastically.

Don't think Wolves or Brum will struggle too much next season, Burnley will


Based on what exactly? Two yoyo teams you think will survive despite being awful (Cov took 9 and should have been 12 from them-thats how bad!) and you pit that against teams who have survived this year and also further teams that have now done it for a few years.

No reasoning, just a 'feeling'

Beggars belief :(

barnesy; QPR had a fortune to spend last seaon ;)

Two ways to get out of the championship

1) outscore everyone (NUFC should get Keegan again). Tried and trusted from, Sunderland, Reading (previous time), Wolves ....

2) Out muscle with guile and effort - not pretty and will require major changes if successful but the Sheffield Utd way

Ironically a lot of the players that Newc want rid of are the type of players ideally suited to getting out like Butt and Barton.

not a massive amount tho doobs

canaryboy 26 May 01:36

and the max yesterday was prob a tenner

still not a huge amount but wd on getting something

defo a rick

JESUS, you ever admit you are wrong?

It was my entire skybet account at the time. I don't keep a lot in the current account so topping up takes time, and it isn't helped by those fers at ip oker taking so long to do cashouts!

Anyway, I don't know what the max was, but there is no evidence to suggest that soap couldn't get £500 on, and £2000 wasn't possible

again, wp on getting on

ipoker through hills is only a couple of days

guess you're not with them

skybet going 5/4 now lol

Canary you could get £2222 on

if new account* - no idea for existing accounts

and numerous got £2K on that i know off.

Hence the reason the price will have moved will be due to liabilities taken.

Wolves and Birmingham will struggle. Wolves concede too many and Birmingham don't score enough. If they do that in the championship, what will they be like at a far higher level?

I think Hull will be ok, but I'm no premiership expert.

whilst not knocking the OP which was a great arb
i think burnley are stone cold , i would also say brum or wolves to join them , so its one of them plus stoke,hull ,sunderland, maybe blackburn and even another name dragged in
when you look like that there is no way i would tie up cash for a year at the current price and tbh reluctant at the original price as i would hope to make it work more in a years of betting

skybet 11/10

oo
oo
o
O
oo
op
p
pp
ssss
ssss

I was about to say I was now the biggest price available on Hull, but my 2.2 has just been taken! Now fully laid off between 2.2 and 2.32

2.2 pmsl, god there are some donks on this site :D

wow, 2.16 was taken last night, and somebody even got a tenner at evens!

well played soap and all that got on.
Just a shame canary can't be man enough to explain he was totally wrong.

It's very frustrating talking to non punters (poker players) about things like this. I'd got 0.25 of whatever the max was on 2 accounts (monkey and scraps) and then asked a friend to get me a bit more on. He started arguing that Hull wouldn't go down, as if the fact that he thought they wouldn't go down was a plausible reason for not backing them at 9/4. Obviously now the price has settled down at 11/10 everyone has to accept it's a rick, but it's painful how sometimes people have to swim against the tide just for the sake of it. The same people who were saying: ''Yeah maybe it's wrong, but 7/4 ish is the right price'' should be laying lumps now/pre-season. But I bet they won't be.

7/4 - 15/8 is the correct price imo, people frequently jump on a bandwagon and push a value bet down to ridiculous levels. That's why so many people lose, and why a small number of people make so much money betting (I certainly dont include myself in that category for what its worth) . As already indicated, I was laying before it hit the current ludicrous price. You can find many instances of people lumping on what they think is a cert even if it represents attrocious value. Man United backed in to 4/7 to beat Arsenal when they only needed a draw to win the league being a classic example. Hid*****backed into 1/7 to be the next Chelsea manager for absolute fortunes when it was patently obvious to anyone with half a brain that he would be temporary being another. Not aftertiming on either, I said so on various threads.

Well, you're certainly not going to be after timing on this one. But to be honest the result is not that relevant (to me). 9/4 was a huge rick, and the price (to 100%) should be even money, maybe even a shade of odds on. I find it amazing that that there are people paid to be odds compilers who came up with that price. Still to be fair to them, it was up there for nearly 24 hours and they must have laid plenty. Sometimes the poorer the price you put down the more you make and in this case, if Hull stay up that will be so. The fact remains it was an embarrassing price and if they get away with it, so be it.

BS if you're as shrewd as you imply then you know that price and value is all about opinions. In this instance the value may have been there and you have ben proved right, congrats for getting some of it. I may be completely wrong but even at 9/4 I didn't consider it value (I can't be results orientated now) and an even bigger lI consider it no value at all now because I think they have a similar chance of staying up as half of the league and therefore imo 9/4 or poss 2/1 was about right.

"Well, you're certainly not going to be after timing on this one".

Or in other words, I was aftertiming the others mentioned. If I actually gave a stuff that you think this, I would bring up various threads on the football forum. I believe one comment I made was "Anyone who backs United to beat Arsenal at 4/7 should give up betting". But I can't be arsed.

"9/4 was a huge rick, and the price (to 100%) should be even money, maybe even a shade of odds on"

I cannot fathom how you come up with that. To say they are more likely to go down then any of Burnley, Wolves and Birmingham is plain stupidity. Add in other sides who will certainly struggle like Stoke, Wigan, Sunderland, and possible others like Blackburn and Bolton, and they cannot possibly be an even money chance.

"I find it amazing that that there are people paid to be odds compilers who came up with that price. Still to be fair to them, it was up there for nearly 24 hours and they must have laid plenty"

Or maybe they did so deliberately knowing mugs would lump on?

"Sometimes the poorer the price you put down the more you make and in this case, if Hull stay up that will be so. The fact remains it was an embarrassing price and if they get away with it, so be it"

Embarassing? PMSL. It was slightly on the high side, probably done deliberately so that people would keep lumping on long after the value vanished. As for "getting away with it" even at the current price it's much better than 50/50 that they will! I dont think they will lose much sleep over the amount taken tbh. I'd be surprised if their liability goes more than 5 figures, which for a long term market on the premiership is relatively peanuts.

even at the current price it's much better than 50/50 that they will!

Best post ever!

...and although their liability won't reach 6 figures, they will have certainly have a decent 5 figure liability (probably 30/40k). The firm in question laid a bet and that can't be argued, so good luck to them.
Also good luck to you if you're laying them, you will certainly be able to get plenty in the hod at between 11/8 and 10/11 before the start of the season. So I would imagine you will have a very big position.

I can't be bothered to reply to the nonsense regarding your posts on the football forum, if you think I actualy care whether you after time or not on a football forum you are even more deluded than thinking laying Hull at 7/4 (or even 9/4!) is good business. I have never once read a post on the football forum or ever heard of you, so it's safe to say I wasn't implying anything.

was a good spot thats for sure

slybet must have been having a particularly lax day to lay 2k though to even a new account

Trading at a touch shorter than 6/5 on here now the market has formed, just a few days being 9/4. That's a big rick on any market let alone a Premiership footy one which it's amazing someone could get so wrong.
My mate messing around and arguing with me that it wasn't much of a howler meant I didn't get as much on as I wanted on anyway, so I'm certainly going to be less concerned with the result than I would have liked.

Best price evens now, 2.04 on here.

cliff notes please

Jazzy_Jon 26 May 01:44

Peterborugh Utd promotion could be a good outside bet,

Hehe

and cheers soap.

great tipping

Ha ha, my rant about Blues and Wolves going down, is now.... well embarrassing lol

A victory for the sense-talkers.

wp fellas :D

Is that Mavis or Jazzy the last post?

Mavis "Hacksaw" Handbag 26 May 02:06

No way can I see Newcastle bouncing back

Yep, well done those sense talkers. :p

You did well to find this thread Doobs , given I had entitled it in such an informative way :D