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30 May 14 00:54
Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Stage 19

Right then, tomorrow's ITT is 26.8km. It's a mountain TT, so they'll be using road bikes rather than TT bikes and the climbers rather than the TT riders will come to the fore. The race is split into three sections, a predominantly flate section, one with a slight incline and a  steep section up the Cat 1 Monte Grappa.

As with all TTs they'll go in reverse GC order, so the favourite Quintana will be last. It's worth noting from a trading point of view that the winner after the first and second timepoint is unlikely to be the winner after the climb, and Quintana will not be leading at checkpoint 1 or 2. There could be significant time gaps come the end. Nairo Qunitana will surely win this. If I was the sort of person that lumped on short things I'd say he was free money. I prefer smaller bets on Pozzovivo and Majka at evens and 7/4 for a top 3 finish.

Main play here is to oppose Quintana for 99% of this stage before making sure he's onside once he has passed checkpoint 2, as I think he wins.
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Report peter64 May 30, 2014 6:19 AM BST
wouldnt call second part slight incline also i would err on the side of caution regarding how long you opposed him for as it would be easy to take a checkpoint to his nearest rival say 1km into third stage to see how quickly he was gaining and then price could disappear very quickly thanks for excellent write ups pp best with money back looks safer option
Report SwingingPick May 30, 2014 7:40 AM BST
Finally a stage where there is no need to consider whether a break will hold to the end. Quintana has essentially already ridden an ITT throughout most of stage 16, which could be argued was a much more difficult ride on account of having to drag Rolland and Hesjedal up with him -- dead weight. I understand MC's point regarding when to get involved, but I think arguing over definitions is counter-productive -- it's a "slight" part in comparison to the third part with its 14% section, end of. Quintana should roll along nicely over the second part, nevertheless, but he'll be taking back most of his time on the steep section up to the finish. A bet on Quintana at 4/7 with paddypower to get started.

Good luck to all,
Report Happybacker May 30, 2014 7:55 AM BST
Agree with most of your angle MC, Quintana really does look a good thing here but the price is a bit short for me. Like you say it's probable that he will be behind at the time checks, so i will back him after the first time check as think this is when he is likely to be furthest behind, he might well have made up most of the time by the 2nd check but will look at his price there also.
Like you i have also backed Possovivo as see him as the only danger, if he has recovered from his bronchitis, and should be a definite for the top 3, so 10/1 ew at 1/4 odds first 3 looks decent value to me.
Report peter64 May 30, 2014 8:00 AM BST
bet already placed @4/7 cant see the deficit being too great at checkpoint 2 as everyone needs to save for third part point being wouldnt like to be opposed to quintana halfway through third part and certainly not for 99% of stage only trying to suggest caution with mc strategy and would suggest backing back on or around second checkpoint more than happy with my play as 2 of the biggest dangers are italian
Report marychain1 May 30, 2014 9:23 AM BST
When I said 99% I didn't mean 99% of Quintana's ride, that would clearly be preposterous. I meant 99% of the stage, but I wasn't being literal.
Report peter64 May 30, 2014 9:55 AM BST
sorry i was just trying to be helpful depending on amount you lay perhaps liquidity issues how far do you expect quintana to be behind at first checkpoint baring in mind flat 7km only dont see him losing much time if any between 1st and second checkpoints given the nature of the stage and what price would he be if around 20 secs down at checkpoint 2 as posted earlier i have already taken my position and believe it to better option with money back on two big dangers cant see him touching 2.0 at any point also as stated earlier people will be trying to work out his position before reaching checkpoint 2 to his main rival as he is last to go and therefore taking any available money prior to 2 could leave you unable to back out of your lay for a profit
Report ClayDavis May 30, 2014 10:45 AM BST
It's time to bet like men.....I know people are saying Quintana is too short but I think he is a nailed on, stone bonking cert today. I think 4/7 is huge value. He is class. I was looking to see who could beat him today. None of the other GC contenders. Then I was looking at other climbers who may have been taking it easy last few days but most of em where in the break yesterday.

Not only will Quintana win this but he will win it by at least a minute. 4/7 is a gift from the gods
Report peter64 May 30, 2014 11:09 AM BST
8/15 now
Report SwingingPick May 30, 2014 11:18 AM BST
When you do that you make me very nervous Clay, simply because there are no certs in this caper, none whatsoever.
Report ClayDavis May 30, 2014 12:00 PM BST
SP, Quintana is a cert. u know it and I know it. Bet like a man
Report CJ70 May 30, 2014 12:14 PM BST
TT's are generally always the most profitable stages for me and todays is an absolute beast.

I'm ruling out Quintana straight away as he is ridiculously short and will only move in one direction even if he ultimately wins so a lay to start for me. He'll probably end up taking a cable car up and then wondering what all the fuss is about as he takes 10 mins anyway ;)

My main man for this is Pozzo, outright and 1,2,3. In last years Vuelta TT he blew Tony Martin for long periods of the race and this course should suit him more than any rider.

Outsiders I'm starting with include Niemiec, Samu, Cataldo and Henao who could set an early time. Not an issue that will be popular but certain riders may opt for a fresh bag here so the winner might come completely out of the blue.

As ever if I need to back the winner I've had a bad day.
Report SwingingPick May 30, 2014 12:16 PM BST
I've turned this Giro around for myself nicely, after it looked like I might suffer the first GT loss in some years, so am not about to put all that hard work on the line for a crazy spectator or a mechanical. It looks a good thing, I agree, but I would always advise a cautious approach, Clay.  That way even should the unthinkable happen, you can come back strong the next day. SP
Report Dope May 30, 2014 4:17 PM BST
Aru gave you a nice sweat, hope it was worth it, Clay. Blush
Report ClayDavis May 30, 2014 4:20 PM BST
Frankel Cool no worries against Floyd Aru
Report CJ70 May 30, 2014 4:29 PM BST
Would have had a better result if Aru had held on at the end.

Pozzo let me down big time, thought that was made for him. Samu and Niemiec were nowhere to be seen picked up a couple of duffers there.

Really could ride by Henao, looks to be really decent for the future.
Report marychain1 May 30, 2014 7:44 PM BST
Wasn't able to watch this stage. Had laid Quintana and left backs up at 2.5 and 3.5 then when I checked in running he was 1.15 after a very fast first timepoint and my bets hadn't been matched. Wrote it off as a badly played stage and then have just found out both bets got matched. Aru must have gone very short.
Report KIMBLE May 30, 2014 8:57 PM BST
aru went sub 1.2 i think
Report cruso May 30, 2014 9:02 PM BST
Quintana went to 5.0 ,I took 1.8
Report CJ70 May 30, 2014 10:16 PM BST
Lowest I remember Aru was 1.13
Report CJ70 May 30, 2014 10:17 PM BST
Quintana would have gone higher than 5's but there were no backers to lay.
Report SwingingPick May 31, 2014 7:41 AM BST
I think some of the traders didn't get the script, MC. Laugh Quintana shortened early and drifted late, even though it was quite obvious he was riding within himself and would have a very strong top section. SP
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