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09 Jul 13 20:09
Date Joined: 16 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 130 | Blogger: Dope's blog
Chris Froome to pip Tony Martin to the stage and convincingly distance all GC contenders.

Castroviejo and Chavanel to put in top 10 times.
Pause Switch to Standard View TdF: Stage 11 Time Trial - Froome vs...
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Report bagz July 9, 2013 9:06 PM BST
Froome at 6's is a good bet. Forget the Olympics (different prep) Tony Martin did nothing to contest 1st place in last years TDF TT's
Report SwingingPick July 9, 2013 9:40 PM BST
Actually, in the Prologue, Martin set the fastest time at the first checkpoint, then had to change bikes due to mechanical. Then, in stage 9, a severly injured Martin got a flat tyre in opening kilometres, then withdrew from Tour.

How much could he do when luck went against him, and his body was battered?

Even now he is quite injured -- for anyone who has seen the pics of his wounds and read the list as well -- he commands favouritism at prohibitive odds due to his mastery of this discipline. Froome a fair bet, though.

Report ClayDavis July 9, 2013 10:07 PM BST
Froome no chance
Report Happybacker July 9, 2013 10:22 PM BST
I like to bet on the TT's, as usually makes for an exciting watch if you get a good run for your money but i just can't find a value angle for tomorrows stage.

Don't think there is much doubt that Tony Martin will win tomorrow and probably win by 30 secs plus, but at odds on not for me.
And Froome will almost certainly be 2nd or 3rd but is no value as an eachway bet.

So if your looking for a little each way play, then you've probably just got one place to aim at!!
Report SwingingPick July 10, 2013 5:44 AM BST
I think the things which can hamper Martin are either his injuries, or Froome riding in yellow (and having one of those days). Martin seems to have pulled-through amazingly well from stage 1 horrors, but all it takes is one bad night to feel flat on race day, and no matter how hard he tries he won't get anything going good for him. On the other hand, Froome is worth an extra few seconds riding in the leader's jersey, but is up to 30secs..? Perhaps not. Certainly not a confident bet for me. He will provide a damn good sight, though. Van Garderen perhaps for a sneaky podium, but for me, heaps of value in Quintana for 1K.Grin

Good luck to all,
Report ClayDavis July 10, 2013 7:45 AM BST
Martin almost single handedly won the TTT for OPQS so is going to be very hard to beat.
I think Bertie will go well as he also looked good in the TTT.

SP, no one u like from Orica Greenedge seeing as they win the TTT?
Report SwingingPick July 10, 2013 8:08 AM BST
Had a really close look at it Clay, but I really couldn't even find a trading option in OGE. Like the look of young Western Australian timetrial specialist Luke Durbridge, but sadly they didn't include him on the list for the Tour, perhaps thinking he's still too young. Some room to hide in the TTT, so I hope that when you witness that Bertie is indeed in poor form after an equally poor TT, you'll finally stop topping up on him to win on GC. Mischief

Report ClayDavis July 10, 2013 8:13 AM BST
SP - what would u consider a good ride from Bertie today? Seriously question?
Report SwingingPick July 10, 2013 8:20 AM BST
Mate, I am as serious as the emoticons I use beside my statements. I would consider a good ride from Bertie if he has shown at least improving form -- and he hasn't!
To answer your question; I think we'll likely see the Bertie we saw in the Dauphine -- looking uncomfortable on his saddle and struggling to make good time. SP.
Report ClayDavis July 10, 2013 9:10 AM BST
SP - your ignoring my question. I'll ask again. What would u consider a good ride from Bertie today?
Report Janthefish July 10, 2013 9:53 AM BST
I've done so much money looking for 'value' bets against Tony Martin.
As for Bertie- has he done a good TT since he's off drugs?
Report dalglish July 10, 2013 10:12 AM BST
what time does it start today
Report ClayDavis July 10, 2013 10:14 AM BST
First of all Bertie is not a doper. Secondly he was 2nd in the Vuelta 2012 TT
Report red and white July 10, 2013 12:39 PM BST
Martin just completed with just over a minute in hand. With half the field to come I think his time will be beaten so a lay for me at 1.27.
Report Janthefish July 10, 2013 1:38 PM BST
Clay, I hope Bertie not a doper now but he was-to me anyone caught doping now should be banned for life. We can't alter what happened in the past-but to pretend he didn't drug up in the past is stupid.
Report geoff m July 10, 2013 3:29 PM BST
martin home & hosed Froome wont win even if he has the legs. Team wont want the ride coming into scrutiny will place second at around 35 seconds plus
Report bb66 July 10, 2013 3:35 PM BST
why shouldn't Froome try to win? I expect, it will depend on the wind, if it favours the later riders, he has a chance, it doesn't look like that though
Report geoff m July 10, 2013 3:47 PM BST
Comes under intense scrutiny re the riding with "assistance" if he outpowers Martin
Report Dope July 10, 2013 3:53 PM BST
'heaps of value' Quintana 49th at first checkpoint
Report geoff m July 10, 2013 4:33 PM BST
got the legs puts minutes into gc guys eases off no pressure  doesn't have to face the press chill out job done
Report bb66 July 10, 2013 4:36 PM BST
Quintana a real disappointment today
Report geoff m July 10, 2013 4:44 PM BST
tour is over
Report ClayDavis July 10, 2013 4:45 PM BST
"Chris Froome to the Stewards Room please, Chris Froome to the Stewards Room"
Report geoff m July 10, 2013 4:54 PM BST
and need to explain improved performance from when?? 2011
Report GoBallistic July 10, 2013 4:54 PM BST
Quintana slightly better than I thought he would be - within a minute of the 2nd place contenders
Report Janthefish July 10, 2013 5:07 PM BST
Clay give credit where it's due. I think he's a prat- but a 'super' prat-he is different class
Report Happybacker July 10, 2013 5:09 PM BST
Geoff M what improved form?? He had a great first season as a pro in 2007 with 3 wins, which is rare for a first season pro. He then moved to Europe took a season to settle, then contracted a serious illness. So that 2011 was his first serious season at Sky, who had said all along that his numbers in training were superb. From then on he has already been on the podium in 3 grand tours, finished in top3 in several grand tour TT's and got a medal at the olympics TT. Has been unbeatable all year because he is in incredible form and his biggest rivals have been out of form. I don't see anything surprising or shocking about any of the results he has put up in this tour, i would say it has gone exactly as was expected by most experts.
What did you think the results were going to be at the start of the tour??? Because i think the GC standings are exactly about where i thought they would be!!
I said at the start of the tour that the only rider capable of challenging him at the minute is Nibali but he is not here!
So who did you think was going to be close to him after stage 10???
Report geoff m July 10, 2013 5:12 PM BST
I think you totally misunderstood my response to Clay
Report bb66 July 10, 2013 5:12 PM BST
why did you expect nothing from him, he's already beaten Porte in ITT for a GC win this year?

should still be an interesting race for the White Jersey unless MOV will sacrifice it for an uncertain Valverde podium
Report SwingingPick July 10, 2013 5:18 PM BST
Have to agree bb66 -- Quintana not in the same league, today. On further reflection comparing the two parcours, the gradient just wasn't there to favour him to get closer to Martin like earlier in the season. Lost time even to Kwiatkowski and gave away the White Jersey, but would be expected to get it back by the weekend.

Anyone know what price Martin after Frrome ahead after two checks?

Report GoBallistic July 10, 2013 5:19 PM BST
Very different course - the one in spain was very up and down, very technical.  On a similar course last year Rodriguez almost won

Today clearly one for the big-gear grinders
Report chamberlain July 10, 2013 5:27 PM BST

After the first time check Froome was done at about 3 and after the 2nd he was done at 1.8.
Report Happybacker July 10, 2013 5:29 PM BST
Very pleased with Mollema's peformance today! Thought he might jump above Valverde in to 2nd, but credit to Valverde he finished strongly and did better than i thought he would there.
But starting to feel confident Mollema can be on the podium come Paris! Reckon theres a good chance he will be up to 2nd after the next TT, just a question if he can keep it going through the Alps.
Report SwingingPick July 10, 2013 5:37 PM BST
Putting myself in the role of a team's management, I would do things much differently to what a team eventually decides, however I don't have access to the real important information behind closed doors. Nevertheless, Valverde looking old and tired on the road as I had expected before the off -- Quintana therefore the more likely to do something special in the Alps, and should become primary focus for the team -- a stage victory and the WJ very likely for him. On the other hand, Movistar have been totally consistent with their intentions of a Valverde podium -- hope they can be honest with themselves about such a chance.

Yes, agree with you Ballistic, especially after taking another look. Wonder if someone will offer 1K again in the ITT when the Alps start with stage 17? Mischief SP.
Report SwingingPick July 10, 2013 5:39 PM BST
Thank you, Chamberlain, appreciate it! Love
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