orioles

Gobble, gobble, pilgrims.

I'm playing the momentum team here. Despite an uptick in the Vikings' form last week, the Lions are playing the more complete football while Minnesota still rely on some stellar special teams' takeaways to keep rolling. It doesn't help that Diggs looks limited and Terence Newman is out.

Pick: Lions -1 @ 2

33-29, +2.94

The Raiders have a cracking offensive line and are beginning to pound the rock with success and Latavius Murray looks a nice fit against a Texans' run D that can struggle against hefty, downhill runners. Carr is hitting Michael Crabtree and Amaro Cooper often enough to keep a secondary honest that could be missing the excellent A.J. Bouye.

Houston have Brock Osweiler under centre. There's not a great deal more to say about that. The Raiders are hardly terrifying on defense, but they do need to keep their discipline on primetime in Mexico City. Give up too many yards and even the anaemic Texans' offense can keep it close.

Pick: Raiders -6 @ 1.95

32-29, +1.99

There's no joy in Green Bay. Rodgers hasn't lost it so much as the supporting cast left in the second Act and is across the road getting leathered in the pub. Washington have toughened up on the defensive line, particularly at home, and their offense is putting up points.

Another unhappy night for the Pack.

Pick: Redskins -3 @ 2

I've opposed the Seahawks to my cost recently, as there's no denying whatever ailed Russell Wilson has either repaired or he's found a better way to play through it because he's red hot, and the run game is coming together too. I keep expecting Carson Wentz to fall on his face and he's also spit in my eye a couple of times.

Not tonight.

Pick: Seahawks -6.5 @ 1.95

You get your first start behind a leaky O line staring down Ndamukong Suh. Welcome to the NFL Jared Goff.

The lad was the No.1 pick, but this is a big ask and unless Todd Gurley finally wakes up, it could be a rough day at the office.

Fins.

Pick: Dolphins -2 @ 2

This will be an intriguing match up between the best rushing offense and the toughest run stoppers in the league. There's no doubt Elliott has taken a lot of the heat off Dak Prescott and allowed the Cowboys to control the clock. Here though, Elliott will need to do it against a front that's giving up just over 3 yards an attempt. There's nothing to say Elliott can't do it, but this should be his sternest test and if you stop him, my sense is that the Dallas offense will struggle.

The Ravens have no run game, which is a real pity because Flacco generally needs all the help he can get (he's thrown as many picks as TDs) but anyway, the Dallas run D is pretty tasty. What needs to happen is Baltimore need to attack an average, badly banged up, Cowboys secondary, but trusting Flacco (3-4 when throwing 40 or more passes this season) is a waking nightmare.

The Ravens fall behind early, they're forced to throw it all day and Dallas relax in the fourth quarter to allow a backdoor cover.

Right?

Pick: Ravens +7.5 @ 1.87 (I've bought the extra half point there, but that's awfully skinny)

29-28, +0.04

This is a must win for the Panthers if they harbour serious post season ambitions. Cam Newton seems to be hitting form and Greg Olsen looks unstoppable, but Drew's crew are a pretty dangerous bunch too. (Spitting rhymes and a pick. Word)

This looks likely to hinge upon which fragile defense steps up furthest. I have to favour the home team just because they will test the opposition more.

Pick: Panthers -3.5 @ 2
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Olsen @ 2.25

29-26, +2.04

A fantastic weekend of football leaves me trying not to run the board with four straight losses!

If you're taking the Bengals here, you're betting on Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins and his buddies feasting on the Giants' O line that should creak without Justin Pugh protecting Eli Manning's blind side. The Bengals have a decent ground game and the return of Tyler Eifert helps the passing game, but really the home side should have too much giving just a point. These are two pretty sketchy defenses, so expect points.

Pick: Giants -1 @ 2
Pick: Over 48 @ 2

29-25, +3.04

This has been an odd season; I keep seeing spreads that should be an automatic points grab, but still find myself taking the favourite, and this is a case in point.

Coming off the ban, the Brady bunch have been so far ahead of everyone else that they already look a lock to win it all. I backed the Steelers and I've forgotten that £2 plunge a month ago.

If the Seattle defense was ripping it up and Wilson wasn't almost completely immobilised (notwithstanding a decent showing against the Bills) I'd look at the visitors more favourably, but the Pats' offense is functioning beautifully and while the defensive front is underwhelming (there's barely a pass rush to speak of) New England's secondary is a highly competent unit. The Seahawks need a run game, alas it's a mess.

Pick: Patriots -7.5 @ 2

I was hoping the Steelers' loss last week would've clipped the spread even more, but I'll take less than a field goal.

The big danger is Pittsburgh's soft interior with Ezekiel Elliott coming into town, but if the Steelers can keep him in check, I like the home team to cover with Ben happier at home and Dak Prescott hearing 'Romo, Romo, Romo' in his head to the Jaws music.

Pick: Steelers -3 @ 2.01