orioles

I'm really looking forward to this one: two offenses with lots to offer and superstar POY candidates all over the field on both sides of the ball. Obviously the Steelers will key on Bell, but of course that can create opportunities for Antonio Brown up against the excellent Janoris Jenkins, and look out for Ladarius Green downfield.

Eli Manning has the peerless Beckham to throw to, but the vertical options are much greater beyond his superstar receiver with Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepard on offer.

This may come down to last possession, so I'll take the points. Look for a little value in the props' markets.

Pick: Giants +6.5 @ 1.93

Guys like Trevor Siemian and Jameis Winston have picked apart the Chiefs; the Falcons in the Georgia Dome should be better than a TD ahead.

Pick: Falcons -5.5 @ 2

35-36, -1.2

The crunch from the collision of the Dallas offensive line and the Minnesota defense will be impressive, but even the Vikings should struggle to limit Prescott, Elliott et al. The Cowboys don't offer much on defense and that secondary looks horribly exposed, but they might not get much ball - the Dallas offense spends an awful lot of time on the field.

I'll give a field goal.

Pick: Cowboys -3 @ 1.92

35 - 35, -0.2

In a week where Lady Luck has kicked me in the nards off a fifteen yard run up, we get this Monday night delight.

Green Bay is slipping further and further down the depth chart on defence. Rodgers will throw it all night and he's too good, even in this spot, to be held wholly in check, but If the Eagles allow Wentz to attack that secondary, they should cover. Don't get too involved though.

Pick: Eagles -4.5 @ 1.99

Bet the defence, and hope the ball hogging Chiefs lay off Trevor Siemian.

Pick: Broncos -3.5 @ 1.91

What price Bryce Petty? Ryan Fitzpatrick Is horrible and New England can bring enough pressure to force him into his usual turnover fest.

The Patriots are pretty banged up at all the wrong positions and Fitz actually had a couple of decent outings against them last season, but the Jets are running on empty with nothing on the line.

Pick: Patriots -7.5 @ 1.91

Panthers on the road, coming into the black hole? The Raiders are firing nicely with lots of options on offense and should cover here.

I like this bet.

Pick: Raiders -3.5 @ 2.05

The Cards are a terrific pass defense team and should test the red hot Matt Ryan led Falcons' O, but unfortunately Arizona isn't bringing that level of play on the other side of the ball (I bet big in fantasy on Carson Palmer and he's been a total bust) against this, you can put Atlanta's woes on defence. It all points to a shoot out which is why the total is so high.

In terms of the spread, it may come down to who gets the ground game going. Freeman will share time with Tevin Coleman against a pretty stiff stop unit and the Cardinals will try to get David Johnson rolling against a Falcons run defense that has struggled: he could be in for a huge game.

I'll take the points.

Pick: Cardinals +4.5 @ 1.92
Pick: Over 50.5 @ 1.95

35-30, +3.85

The Colts may be missing Vontae Davis and Clay Geathers but critically, they're completely out of luck.

Pick: Steelers -8.5 @ 1.91

I haven't been this excited since the doc told me that with my heart condition, exercise was out of the question. Boom! Couch since 2010.

Prescott sits behind a terrific O line and hands it off to Elliott. Occasionally he can look downfield for Bryant, Beasley, Witten et al but generally, it's the Cowboys' ability to dominate possession that throttles the opposition - they're a fine side.

Washington are red hot on offense; they have a ground game with undrafted 'Fat Rob' Kelley and a ton of options deep. The key, of course, is Kirk Cousins' form and last week he played about as well as I've seen and certainly better than back in Week 2. The big caveat is that they have to stop Elliott and get the ball and they have to do it on a very short week.

Dallas by a touchdown.

Pick: Cowboys -6.5 @ 1.96