orioles

Blount is probably the key here; he sets the passing game up for Belichick and Brady and the Broncos have struggled against the run. Blount is one of those players it's difficult to trust, but the numbers tell you at the very least he's having a career season. Although Gronkowski is down, Brady still put up some great numbers against the toughest D in the league, safe for a bewildering pick.

Trevor Siemian is not a bust by any means, but he can look ineffective and while the Pats aren't a terrifying defensive challenge, they're not as bad as previously.

I'll give a field goal.

Pick: Patriots -3 @ 1.92

Ever since Derek Carr stiffed me by fluttering a bunch of passes after picking up a knock, I'm reminded to take these things rather more seriously. Matt Stafford has knackered his throwing hand and in a wet and wild East Rutherford, against an improving defense, I'm not having the Lions.

Eli Manning looked awful last week and Detroit's defense has also made progress of late, so this may go Under; either way, don't get heavily involved.

Pick: Giants -4.5 @ 2

40-41, -1.25

15 points on primetime? Autobet.

Well, Jared Goff is floundering and frankly he's going under for the third time. Jeff Fisher has finally gone and if you assume the Rams are going to hire a coach with an offensive background, the first round pick might still have a future.

But when you don't know what the hell you're doing, Seattle is probably best avoided ... as is this bet.

Pick: Seahawks -15 @ 1.98

The Ravens have the toughest defense in the NFL but will still need Flacco to turn up with his big boy pants on and that's never guaranteed.

Should be a great game and as I'm on an epically bad run you might want to oppose ...

Pick: Patriots -6.5 @ 2

The Cowboys O line should man handle the hosts and with Jason Pierre-Paul missing or injured, Prescott can find enough room and Elliott will do the rest.

Pick: Cowboys -3.5 @ 2

I like this bet, Wilson is rolling nicely and while Rodgers has begun to rediscover his form, he's carrying a hammy and will need to be on his toes against a tough Seahawks pass rush.

Pick: Seahawks -3 @ 2

38-39, -1.25

The Titans have to win and they can behind a rested DeMarco Murray.

Pick: Titans -1 @ 1.97

The AFC West has been a ton of fun this season and this promises to be a an absolute belter as it's effectively for all the marbles.

The suddenly red hot Raiders (two years ago the Dagenham Girl Pipers would've battered them) stride into Arrowhead with an offense that'll take some stopping. It's built on a first class offensive line that allows Carr to utilise a number of attacking options.

Kansas will likely try to pound the rock, with the Raiders looking weakest against the run and Alex Smith underwhelming under centre, save for the hook up with Travis Kelce. So it's Spencer Ware all night.

I'll spare you my detailed analysis and the Xs and Os. The Raiders have been tough on the road and in a game that should be an arm wrestle, I'll take the points.

Pick: Raiders +3.5 @ 1.92

37-38, -1.2

Fitz and the Jets!

The Jets are actually a live chance here with a decent front likely to pressure Luck who's operating behind an underwhelming O line, but really the Colts should be able to lean on their QB coming back after a concussion and go after a secondary that has given up chunks of real estate recently. This is a critical game for Indianapolis, so I'll take them straight up.

Pick: Colts @ 2.05

I'm taking the Seahawks' defense to choke off the horribly inconsistent Cam Newton offense. Seattle haven't exactly dazzled on offense, the O line has been horrible, but they have players back this week that should allow them to shine on primetime,

Pick: Seahawks -7.5 @ 1.94