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I just don't buy the Bears (they've already made that judgement look foolish!) so I'm hardly going to look kindly on them on the road off a short week; but this is a really tough game to call.

Cutler seems to have woken up, the Bears' O line has held up as they get players fit and playing their proper positions and Mike Martz has discovered the run game. The Miami pass rush and secondary are struggling with injuries and their third string trigger man is under centre, behind an O line with Berger gone and Long struggling, so it must be Chicago, right?


The Vikes were gutless last week - they just laid down and died - and I expect the home team to bring a lot more pressure up front on Cutler tonight. As I said, the phins' pass rush is dinged up (Cameron Wake limped off early last game) but I'm just waiting for Cutler to regress back to the curve and begin getting sacked and turning it over, again. The Dolphins' secondary has Clemons missing and is prone to giving up TDs through the air, but I have faith that a more sophisticated defense can frustrate Chicago sufficiently to get the home team over the finish line.

Having Thigpen at QB isn't the poke in the blow hole you might expect, as his mobility may lend some variety to Miami's offense and he's hardly a fresh faced kid, but Peppers and Idonije will bring it all night and there may be a few sacks flying around. I can't promise last week's make-up of 208 on the spreads, but the game sack total might be worth a buy.

Thigpen has options downfield (I have no idea where their run game went, and the Bears defend the run too well anyway) against a secondary that is beatable, but he has to get the ball there, so look for him going to Fasano underneath as the outlet under pressure.

I'm favouring Miami for very basic reasons - they need it, they're at home on the short week and they're capable of pressuring Cutler, but this is NOT a game to get heavily involved.

Pick: Miami -1.5 (1pt)
Pick: 1st TD (no bet)
Pick: Anytime TD (no bet)

Pick: Buy Total Match Sacks 0.5pt/tick @ 5.2
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