This one doesnt come across immediately as a typical Sir Mark Prescott improver, back down in grade from winning a Class five last time out to a Class 6 at Yarmouth taking four attempts in handicaps to break his duck, but this afternoon in the 4.55 race the gelding has a 7lb claimer in the saddle to negate a 7lb penalty for his win over course and distance six days ago and also has the weight for age advantage that three years old get in these races so at overnight odds of 2.06 and 2.08 for Turning Gold I reckon were about right, time will tell.
Running in a claimer for the first time should give the Mick Channon trained Kiruna Peak a chance to get her first win since winning her maiden in July last year. As claimers go, this one looks fairly evenly matched between the main contenders and at a price of 5.6 she is worth taking a chance with. The stable is in good nick with a 27% strike rate this month including a winner in a seller on Saturday.
Its an pold saying, 'Bigger the field bigger the favourite' I hope it applies today, originally 18 runners and now with the three withdrawals just 15 go to post in the 6.55 which is still a big enough field, the three non runners have reduced my price care of the betfair reduction factor to just 3.24 which is more than skinny enough for a race of this type. Alans Pride is one of the few in form having been first or second in his last three races, all of similar quality to this and will surely go close again tonight, the only niggling doubt is the going, I wouldnt like it to get any softer.
Paul Hanagan is a jockey I like very much and I would think he can give me a winner in the 4.55 at Ayr this afteroon via Nothing To Lose. He should have won at Gowran Park last time out but was given too muh to do in a race that would have given him his second win in three outings since switched to handicaps. Priced at 3.35 on Betfair looks good to me, price taken.
With 4/10 placed yesterday it gave us a return of 16.93 points so a profit of 6.93 points, sadly non of the big priced ones could win so its -10 points from our win totals that now stand at:
Win bets +5 points
Place bets a massive +40.05 points
On to today.
Day 4.
1.30 Dicosimo is one of the Mullins horses thats not been shouted about but has a clear chance here I think and at the current price of 15 is well worth chancing.
2.05 Violet Dancer looks a huge price to me, he has a 9lb rise for winning the Betfair at Newbury but at just 5 years of age is entitled to improve again, currently trading at a massive 30 and is on the drift.
3.20 Carlingford Lough will hopefully be another one for AP. The Irish Hennesey winners needs to improve to win today but trading at 14 is worth chancing in an open Gold Cup along with Jonjo's Holywell who loves it around here and will surely make a bold attempt slightly bigger in the market at 15.
4.00 A big field as always so its two against the field, firstly Current Event who made a big impression when winning at Edinburgh last time and the Paul Nicholls trained No Loose Change who is 2/2 at this distance and has some good form to his name and looks value trading at 21.
4.40 Noble Endeavor on his handicap debut for Gordon Elliot could be the fly in the ointment here at a nice price of 22.
5.15 Two against the field again, Brick Red at 32 and Dick Dundee at 70.
Good luck to everyone today. One winner needed to keep in front in the Win only stakes, but whatever happens the place bets will finish the meeting with a nice healthy profit.
A lovely winner at 30.6 yesterday puts us well into profit and with six of the 15 placing and all at good prices puts us well into profit in the place market as well.
Win market +15 points
Place market + 33.22 points
less any betfair commission of course.
Day 3.
1.30 Three against the short priced favourite, Apache Stronghold, this is his distance and drying ground will help, currently 7.0, Irish Saint, maybe the stable second string but still looks overpriced to me at 19 and Tango De Juilley worth chancing at 60!
2.05 A huge field for the Pertemps and I've two against the field, Regal Encore runner up in the Champion Bumper a couple of years ago and has taken a while to get used to hurdles but has a chance here currently at around 11.5 and then at the bottom end of the handicap Pipes Unique De Cotte could be a plot horse, already a winner here and has come to hand just nicely, trading at 19 or so.
2.40 I fancy Hidden Cyclone in the Ryanair he ran well in this last year and this looks no better, trading at 14 looks a solid ew option.
3.20 A competitive World Hurdle and I'm taking Saphir Du Rheu to get home in the money, has good course form and would have won easier last time but for a couple of mistakes, trading at 7.6 or so.
4.00 Two at big prices against the field here, Rawnaq won well in the Flyingbolt last time up and is worth chancing at 30 as is Filbert for Hobbs/Johnson at around the 48 mark.
4.40 Masters Hill in the last, he won a Graduation Chase easily last time out and has earned his mark, trading at around 19 and drifting.
As always, good luck whatever you are on, another difficult day ahead. Be lucky.
Just the one winner yesterday at 8.4 meant a small loss of 0.6 of a point from our nine selections in the win market, but with three placed at 5.1, 4.56 and 1.97 we show a profit of 2.63 points in the place markets.
On to today.
2.05 Two in this, Southfield Theatre hasnt been out the first 4 in five runs at HQ and was just touched off in the Pertemps last year and after just 4 runs over the bigger obstacles probably still has some improvement to come, trades around 8.6 at the moment. Noel Meades Wounded Warrior was impressive winning a Grade 2 last time out and is our second one in this race trading around 16, could be a trading horse also as he goes from the front.
2.40 Another big field with 26 going to post for the Coral Cup and I'm taking two against the field. Firstly Baradari, after staying on strongly to finish 5th in last years Fred Winter he has been crying out for this sort of trip and duly won over 20 furlongs at Ascot in a Grade 2 last time out, trading at 20 at the moment. Our other choice is Zabana who beat some decent sorts at Navan last time out,trading around the 42 mark.
3.20 I would love to see SS win this but I'm taking 2 here, last years winner Sire Du Grugy I've already backed at 7.6 after he unseated at Newbury, and at a big price Special Tiara who went off too hard last year, he loves to get his toe into the ground so any rain would help his cause greatly and after his easy success last time out in the Desert Orchid is no forlorn hope trading at around the 25 mark.
4.40 Another big field with 22 going to post and I'm taking 4 here against the field. Arabian Revolution could be a decent sort, he won a Grade 2 last time out and like most of these will have more to come, trading at around 12. The way Glencily Berbas won at Fairhouse last time out suggests that he may turn out to be a decent acquisition, looks too big at 23. At the other end of the handicap Gordon Elliots Hostile Fire was vastly improved when winning last time out and may have been aimed at this, trading at 12.5 and lastly Qualando for Paul Nicholls on the drift at a big 38.
5.15 The Champion Bumper looks wide open and at the prices I've 5 here!! Au Quart De Tour at around 30, General Principle at 17, Jetstream Jack at 20, Vigil at 11 and Wait For Me at 13.5.
With 15 selections the day could be a disaster or it could be just grande !! Fingers crossed.
A real difficult looking day ahead, good luck whatever you decide on.
Oily's oily attempt to find some winners at Cheltenham, hopefully at decent prices, will keep a record win and place at the Betfair SP.
2.05 An odds on favourite in the race so I've two against the field a nice prices. Sgt Reckless stuffed a moderate field in his only Chase run to date, won a maiden at Lingfield very easily in January and in between was himself stuffed by Faugheen in a hurdle race, still lightly raced and entitled to improve on only his second chase so trading around 27 on betfair looks nice and big. With AP on board Three Kingdoms might also run a big race, three races this season so far should have in peak condition for this and again he may run better than his price of around 29 suggests.
2.40 A big field with 24 going to post and you can have 5 places on betfair. Again, two against the field. Firstly last years Feltham winner Annacotty who won a Grade 3 Chase here last time out and looks bang in form and at around 40 is surely too big? Ned Stark is a likely improver and his price of around 11 looks about right.
4.00 Two again against an odds on favourite, if its just place money then so be it, there is a market for 4 places as well as three. Glens Melody second to Quevega last year has solid each ways claims and at a bigger price Bitofapuzzle is exactly that, won 5/6 under rules including beating Caroles Legacy, is around 34 on betfair.
4.40 Last years Albert Bartlett winner Very Wood has probably been laid out for this and at around 5.2 might just be a little short so will throw in Cogry as well. Well beaten by Very Wood last year the hope is that a year on and the extra distance will see him run better than his price of 18 implies.
5.15 Last but not least Horizontal Speed may have more to come over fences for Hobbs/Johnson and again a nice price at 18 or so.
Its never easy at Cheltenham, so good luck whatever you are backing.