Forums

North American

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
NonVintage
02 Dec 21 23:37
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 3,668 | Blogger: NonVintage's blog
Am not taking the complete disappearance of Philadelphia's offense last week to heart - sometimes these things just happen. The defensive line held the Giants to 13 points, and the offensive line just seemed to forget that they can run. If the game came up again, I'd still have to back the Eagles!

This week, there are three games that I could have picked a value selection from, and two follow on from the last Monday night game. The Seahawks' lack of offensive threat (including an out-of-sorts, or possibly disillusioned Russ at QB) is going to make it very hard for them to win games against anyone, so I'd expect San Francisco to win quite comfortably on Sunday.

Which brings us to the Washington Football Team, who beat Seattle in a weird but very entertaining game on Monday - narrowly but would have almost certainly been more comfortable if their kicker hadn't pointlessly tweaked his hamstring while not chasing down that blocked PAT return.

They struggled early on in the season primarily because their defense weren't playing to anything like the level they had ended last season at. This has been changing in recent weeks and they look pretty mean and well organised now.

Heinicke has grown in confidence, McLaurin is great and their running game has gone up a notch. They still aren't going to be a team that regularly scores 30+ points, but they don't need to be. In a similar way to New England, but at a slightly lower level, they've shown how effective you can be just doing the simple things well, rather than attempting the spectacular.

Right now, Las Vegas will be buoyed by an unexpected victory over the Cowboys in a weird, weird game which they won basically because the officials kept throwing pass interference flags against the hapless Anthony Brown - sometimes justifiably, but often incredibly harshly. Dallas underperformed - or at least were in line with recent rather than early season form - but may well have won the game without the flagdemic.

I don't think the Raiders are a reliable team - clearly their season has been disrupted hugely, and they are up against solid opposition here who are unlikely to be giving up defensive penalties like Dallas did.

For me, this game should be priced up with Washington as definite favourites, but they are actually available at around 6/5. I would much, much rather take that about the Football Team than consider the Raiders at odds of about 1.75.

For what it's worth (not much recently), the predictor has this as Washington Football Team 26-22 Las Vegas Raiders.

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 107
By:
NonVintage
When: 02 Dec 21 23:47
Predictor update - much more data now to assess how it's doing with a bit more confidence...

In terms of picking winners, regardless of price, it's showing a 64.4% strike rate which is pretty good, although this only results in a +1.4% LSP, which is a little low. I think it's reasonable to think that odds compilers (like defensive coordinators) may get more savvy as the season progresses.

21 suggested value bets have given 12 winners (57.1%) for a level stakes profit of 31.2% which is good, and using the recommended variable stakes, this has seen 45pts invested and returning over 68pts (+52.9% VSP). Again this is decent enough to make me keep going for now!
By:
therhino
When: 03 Dec 21 01:26
Ominous start for the Saints with Hill at QB. Not sure how this is gonna go.
By:
england_v_south_afri
When: 03 Dec 21 02:58
Stick with it NV !! The numbers say your doing something right. Grin

Decent game so far, enjoyed it. Cool
By:
england_v_south_afri
When: 03 Dec 21 03:20
Dallas lead by 3

Game on !! Excited
By:
england_v_south_afri
When: 03 Dec 21 03:41
Hill doing the hurdles LaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
therhino
When: 03 Dec 21 03:44
What an athlete Hill is. Would have been one of those guys in school who was a pain in the arse for being the best at everything.
By:
therhino
When: 03 Dec 21 03:47
Parsons is a beast.
By:
NonVintage
When: 03 Dec 21 04:08
Terrible pick thrown by Dak there... gives the Saints another chance
By:
NonVintage
When: 03 Dec 21 04:12
Hill's multi-skills got me wondering about what sort of advantage a team might have if they had a genuine QB who could punt. Would be a nightmare for other teams!
By:
NonVintage
When: 03 Dec 21 04:19
This has become an offensive sh!tshow by both teams. Horrific stuff bordering on incompetent, including the sideline decision-making...
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 04 Dec 21 01:17
Cowboys however are playoff bound.... I wouldn't back Alstom them making the superbowl
By:
NonVintage
When: 05 Dec 21 18:53
Crazy shootout developing between the Jets and (un-Hurts) Eagles... neither team able to stop the other at the moment...
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 19:05
Bengals are having one of those weeks. To be 24-0 down  to the chargers just shows the inconsistent nature of the NFL this season
By:
GoBallistic
When: 05 Dec 21 19:07
6 possessions, 6 TDs

Jets rookie kicker playing his first (and possibly last) NFL game misses his first two EPs and the 3rd Jets TD is followed by a failed 2 pt conversion
By:
NonVintage
When: 05 Dec 21 19:08
Yeah, crazy stuff GB! Laugh
By:
NonVintage
When: 05 Dec 21 20:12
Fair play to the Bengals for getting back into it...
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 20:21
Bengals are exciting team to watch. They should be beating teams like the chargers. Herbert not in same league as Burrows
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 20:22
Falcons season is over.

Vikings fans must be disappointed to drop pts to the lions
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 20:42
Goff going to go 0-12 for the Lions
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 20:44
Ariona into the playoffs. 10 wins get u In the playoffs this season by the looks of things
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 20:46
Bengals loss to  the chargers is a big blow for their playoffs hopes
By:
tobermory
When: 05 Dec 21 20:53
What did Detroit just do lol
By:
tobermory
When: 05 Dec 21 21:12
OMG Detroit win on last second TD
By:
tobermory
When: 05 Dec 21 21:13
Celebrating like they won the Super Bowl
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:14
Lions in win shovk

Only the vikings defence can lose that game..... how many 2pt conversions did they fail at!!
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:15
What price did the vikings go in play?
By:
tobermory
When: 05 Dec 21 21:17
Zimmer played the 'prevent' defence
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:17
Steelers was 11-0 this time last year..... they been terrible since the Lions have been winless

Maybe the steelers van beat the Ravens... they're the ideal team for pittsburgh are the steelers
By:
tobermory
When: 05 Dec 21 21:18
I didnt check sorry
By:
GoBallistic
When: 05 Dec 21 21:19
1.08 I think
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:33
NP... always count on the Vikings to find a way to lose
... Best team to play overs on
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:33
Thanks GB
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:34
Nasty injury in seattle 49'ers game. That looked nasty
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:38
Steelers pick the Jackson throwing arm.

Then the seahawks throws the playbook out the window.....  go homer....doh
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 21:46
Kittle and Jimmy G link up is back this season
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 05 Dec 21 22:13
Russell Wilson must be getting sick and tired of the protection he is getting week in week out
By:
NonVintage
When: 06 Dec 21 00:09
Wow... close one in Las Vegas - didn't think Washington were going to win it at the end - didn't think he'd make the kick and then could barely watch Carr throwing that Hail Mary! Phew!
By:
tobermory
When: 06 Dec 21 00:10
Good call on WFT.

Raiders a bit lucky not getting a PI call at the end.
By:
NonVintage
When: 06 Dec 21 00:10
Apparently 'just' a concussion for the SF49ers punt returner in the end - think he was probably knocked out and they took no chances but scary stuff!
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com