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Kicks off on thurs
Who do we like this year ?
I've had speculative punts on two from the AFC, Kansas City (36) + Tennessee (75); two from the NFC, Chicago (100) + Arizona (150)
Reasoning variously along the lines of 2nd season QBs and / or new coaching staffs and / or blind optimism
As usual the Patriots are a tempting price play because of how weak their league and conference is although I'll hope for a rocky start like last year before I invest
Who do we like this year ?
I've had speculative punts on two from the AFC, Kansas City (36) + Tennessee (75); two from the NFC, Chicago (100) + Arizona (150)
Reasoning variously along the lines of 2nd season QBs and / or new coaching staffs and / or blind optimism
As usual the Patriots are a tempting price play because of how weak their league and conference is although I'll hope for a rocky start like last year before I invest
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Titans backer signing in as well at 75s 
Gotta fancy their schedule and can envisage Henry having a breakout year. On the Panthers as well at 70s, receiving corps had a bit of a boost (still not great) but should be better than last year. Be interesting to see what level McCaffrey can reach this season.
Gotta fancy their schedule and can envisage Henry having a breakout year. On the Panthers as well at 70s, receiving corps had a bit of a boost (still not great) but should be better than last year. Be interesting to see what level McCaffrey can reach this season.
Evening guys.
Signing in for the titans too,huge price,can't resist,way over subscribed now.
Eagles I like for follow up but banged up.
Rams must go well surely.
Jaguar other main bet...
Speculative dig at the Bears
Literally could not cannot believe the Raiders traded Mack, for 2 lottery tickets,****g nuts...nuts...
Year before last I thought Raiders had a shot until Carr broke leg,million miles off now with a stinking D.
Signing in for the titans too,huge price,can't resist,way over subscribed now.
Eagles I like for follow up but banged up.
Rams must go well surely.
Jaguar other main bet...
Speculative dig at the Bears
Literally could not cannot believe the Raiders traded Mack, for 2 lottery tickets,****g nuts...nuts...
Year before last I thought Raiders had a shot until Carr broke leg,million miles off now with a stinking D.
Bears rumble over Rodgers i may have nicked some value,there D could be scary in time..
Bet365 are offering early cash out on NFL games
"How it works:
Place a pre-match single bet on the Money Line market for any game in the NFL.
If the team you back goes 14 points ahead at any stage during the game, we will settle your bet early as a winner, even if the opposition comes back to win the match."
Anyone got any idea what Buffalo are doing at Quarterback? Was looking at under 6.5 wins but at $1.40 for a long term bet it doesn't appeal.
"How it works:
Place a pre-match single bet on the Money Line market for any game in the NFL.
If the team you back goes 14 points ahead at any stage during the game, we will settle your bet early as a winner, even if the opposition comes back to win the match."
Anyone got any idea what Buffalo are doing at Quarterback? Was looking at under 6.5 wins but at $1.40 for a long term bet it doesn't appeal.
The Jags have some absolute jets on both sides of the ball that are young. Norwell a great addition and they are in the weaker AFC. Still not sure about the man at QB though and not sure if I want to buy or not. Wait and see for me, Giants away to start off a banana peel with OBJ back and Barkley could make people forget all about Elliott's rookie season - prodigious talent. Watching him at Penn State last year was box office viewing. One of the most interesting week 1 games imo.
peterman gets week 1 start for bills.
think ravens will steamroller the bills week one and should cover -7
also really like the titans in week 1 in Miami M/L around evens
two to win superbowl for me VIKINGS OR SAINTS GL ALL FOR THE SEASON AHEAD
think ravens will steamroller the bills week one and should cover -7
also really like the titans in week 1 in Miami M/L around evens
two to win superbowl for me VIKINGS OR SAINTS GL ALL FOR THE SEASON AHEAD
Main rule changes for this season
- lowering, leading with and making contract on opponent with helmet is out - applies to everyone including offensive players although most likely to be defensive players getting flagged, 15 yard pen and possible ejection if flagrant. This may be in part a result of the Ryan Shazier injury
- the catch rule - it's no longer strictly necessary to control the ball all the way to the ground, as soon as you make a "football move" with control it's a catch. I was in a small minority in that I liked the rule the way it was. There will be more legit catches now, also more fumbles. And probably no end to controversy once they start arguing what a "football move" is
- a rule change that could affect points spread players - if time has expired after a TD then the extra point won't be required if it doesn't affect the result
- lowering, leading with and making contract on opponent with helmet is out - applies to everyone including offensive players although most likely to be defensive players getting flagged, 15 yard pen and possible ejection if flagrant. This may be in part a result of the Ryan Shazier injury
- the catch rule - it's no longer strictly necessary to control the ball all the way to the ground, as soon as you make a "football move" with control it's a catch. I was in a small minority in that I liked the rule the way it was. There will be more legit catches now, also more fumbles. And probably no end to controversy once they start arguing what a "football move" is
- a rule change that could affect points spread players - if time has expired after a TD then the extra point won't be required if it doesn't affect the result
I really like Minnesota for the Superbowl @ 10/1. A ferocious defense coupled with a 2 headed running back attack and an improvement at qb.
In week 1 the Bills are going with 5 pick Peterman at qb. I'm all over the Ravens.
In week 1 the Bills are going with 5 pick Peterman at qb. I'm all over the Ravens.
Rams gonna be very hard to deal with based on that 2nd half display. Star running back, an O line that gives a solid QB all day, speedy receivers, DPOY and Suh on D with star corners. Sheesh.
Surely they dispose of the Vikings after there stunningly bad display against Bills.
Literally beyond belief that game was,how bad they were.
Hoping for a routine win,move on,couple of injuries to carry on the D tonight the Rams...
Doubt go 16.0 Rhino bit it would be pleasing I would think from a financial perspective.
Literally beyond belief that game was,how bad they were.
Hoping for a routine win,move on,couple of injuries to carry on the D tonight the Rams...
Doubt go 16.0 Rhino bit it would be pleasing I would think from a financial perspective.
do not think they will go 16-0
fancy them tonight -7 stats against the vikings no team travelling from central time zone to pacific time zone on a thursday night have never won or covered the spread in 12 years
fancy them tonight -7 stats against the vikings no team travelling from central time zone to pacific time zone on a thursday night have never won or covered the spread in 12 years
They are more than capable of going 16-0 in my opinion but tonight is a banana peel with the injuries to the corners. Quite possibly one of the most loaded teams ever assembled (on paper at least).
7 weeks in, how y'all see it atm? The Chiefs look amazing, wonder if the QB will hit a wall at some point. Level he is at is incredible, but with that many weapons to throw to kind of hard not to be. AFC Championship looks very much like chiefs vs pats but a long way to go. Rams still out on their own in the NFC, still think injuries might be the only thing stopping them from playing in the big one.
Going very well the Rams...Injuries there only danger. Maybe Brees in an all out shootout for the Bowl.?
Home field huge,agree looks like Chiefs Pats now but one two injuries changes everything.
Chiefs an incredible watch,were buying money the other day v Bengals.
Houston may keep improving if avoid usual injury car crash.
Home field huge,agree looks like Chiefs Pats now but one two injuries changes everything.
Chiefs an incredible watch,were buying money the other day v Bengals.
Houston may keep improving if avoid usual injury car crash.
I'll be happy to oppose the Rams at the business end of the season. They have very little playoff pedigree and running backs with a heavy workload during the season tend to run out of gas in January
Agreed,tough division,Panthers better value at 4x the price...
Eagles another injury today,there very smashed up now,and not playing well.
Rams for me coasting through games at times,don't see that many of them overworked at all.
There a very short price right now though for me!
Eagles another injury today,there very smashed up now,and not playing well.
Rams for me coasting through games at times,don't see that many of them overworked at all.
There a very short price right now though for me!
Before Week 8
| 4.1 | LA Rams 7-0 | 85 | Cinncinati Bengals 4-3 | |
| 7.0 | New England Patriots 5-2 | 90 | Dallas Cowboys 3-4 | |
| 7.6 | Kansas City Chiefs 6-1 | 95 | Atalanta Falcons 3-4 | |
| 10.5 | New Orleans Saints 5-1 | 120 | Detroit Lions 3-3 | |
| 19 | Minnesota Vikings 4-2-1 | 160 | Tennessee Titans 3-4 | |
| 20 | LA Chargers 5-2 | 170 | Indianapolis Colts 2-5 | |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2-1 | 200 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-3 | |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens 4-3 | 210 | Denver Broncos 3-4 | |
| 30 | Philadelphia Eagles 3-4 | 250 | Miami Dolphins 4-3 | |
| 36 | Houston Texans 4-3 | 380 | New York Jets 3-4 | |
| 38 | Green Bay Packers 3-2-1 | 530 | Cleveland Browns 2-4-1 | |
| 44 | Carolina Panthers 4-2 | 600 | New York Giants 1-6 | |
| 50 | Chicago Bears 3-3 | 1000 | San Francisco 49ers 1-6 | |
| 50 | Washington Redskins 4-2 | 1000 | Oakland Raiders 1-5 | |
| 70 | Jackonsville Jaguars 3-4 | 1000 | Arizona Cardinals 1-6 | |
| 80 | Seattle Seahawks 3-3 | 1000 | Buffalo Bills 2-5 |
After comfortably handling the Vikings away and disposing of the Rams, New Orleans have a genuine claim to being the best team in the league. A+. Now hold the tie break with the Rams so just need to match them to secure home field through the championship game, may need perfection to do it though when you look at the Rams schedule. For the Saints it is tough throughout.
Those 2 games in 3 weeks against the Panthers at the end look delicious.
Those 2 games in 3 weeks against the Panthers at the end look delicious.
Given that "defense wins championships" do any of the leading teams in the betting have a top 10 defense ? Right now I'd say probably not. There are teams who could possibly move in there with the possible return of one or two key players (Berry and Houston for the Chiefs, Bosa for the Chargers, Talib for the Rams)
Is there any defense dominant enough to overcome their obvious offensive deficiencies ? Right now the best defense in the league is probably the Bears despite Mack never really getting fully fit so far. However Trubisky has been a major disappointment - not much progress at all from his rookie year
Maybe the high-powered offenses will be largely unopposed in the playoffs this season
Is there any defense dominant enough to overcome their obvious offensive deficiencies ? Right now the best defense in the league is probably the Bears despite Mack never really getting fully fit so far. However Trubisky has been a major disappointment - not much progress at all from his rookie year
Maybe the high-powered offenses will be largely unopposed in the playoffs this season
Saints take the punt on Dez. Not much of a punt really, can't see much downside unless there is a loss of team harmony. Sure he will be on his best behaviour.
saints
pats
rams
chiefs
any of them find a decent D they are gunna absolutely p1ss up
nobody seems to be able to stop anybody though
pats
rams
chiefs
any of them find a decent D they are gunna absolutely p1ss up
nobody seems to be able to stop anybody though
Goballistic...does that well held term defense wins championship hold up nowadays...yes it was always thus but in todays NFL where each year the new rules invariably seem to be slanted to the offense it's not holding true
i am on the saints.hope Dez does not rock the boat in the Big Easy
grayhawk, it's the same rules for everyone, just more points in general so most teams are scoring 35 pts instead of 25 and a great defense holds you to 20 instead of 10. If anything the rule changes might work the other way, whereby the easier you make it to play offense and the harder you make it to play defense, the more it separates defense and anyone can play offense - in last year's playoffs you've got Nick Foles winning a SB
Cooper Kupp done for the year...big loss for the Rams
| 5.4 | LA Rams 9-1 | 130 | Baltimore Ravens 4-5 | |
| 5.6 | New Orleans Saints 8-1 | 170 | Atlanta Falcons 4-5 | |
| 6.8 | Kansas City Chiefs 9-1 | 200 | Indianapolis Colts 4-5 | |
| 8.4 | New England Patriots 7-3 | 200 | Cincinnati Bengals 5-4 | |
| 11.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2-1 | 400 | New York Giants 2-7 | |
| 14 | LA Chargers 7-2 | 430 | Jacksonville Jaguars 3-6 | |
| 24 | Minnesota Vikings 5-3-1 | 710 | Miami Dolphins 5-5 | |
| 28 | Chicago Bears 6-3 | 850 | Detroit Lions 3-6 | |
| 36 | Carolina Panthers 6-3 | 1000 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-6 | |
| 36 | Houston Texans 6-3 | 1000 | Denver Broncos 3-6 | |
| 65 | Tennessee Titans 5-4 | 1000 | New York Jets 3-7 | |
| 65 | Philadelphia Eagles 4-5 | 1000 | Cleveland Browns 3-6-1 | |
| 75 | Washington Redskins 6-3 | 1000 | San Francisco 49ers 2-8 | |
| 80 | Seattle Seahawks 5-5 | 1000 | Oakland Raiders 1-8 | |
| 80 | Green Bay Packers 4-5-1 | 1000 | Arizona Cardinals 2-7 | |
| 130 | Dallas Cowboys 4-5 | 1000 | Buffalo Bills 3-7 |
Market doesn't seem to follow results very closely...
At last update I posted...
Houston 4-3 were @36. Now 6-3 and still 36.
Colts were 2-5 and 170. Now 4-5 and 200.
Best of all Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75
At last update I posted...
Houston 4-3 were @36. Now 6-3 and still 36.
Colts were 2-5 and 170. Now 4-5 and 200.
Best of all Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75
Rams won't be winning any Superbowl without Kupp. Too important of a player for them and their defense is nowhere good enough to compensate for any loss of efficiency on offense.
As stated in another thread I like the Titans at current odds and possibly the Steelers too given their secondary seems to have improved after dropping Artie Burns.
As stated in another thread I like the Titans at current odds and possibly the Steelers too given their secondary seems to have improved after dropping Artie Burns.
I was wondering about the Rams without Kupp as well. 54 points says the offense will be just fine. The defense on the other hand...
Meanwhile, the Saints are making a mockery of the tough schedule. Remaining games as follows: Falcons, @ Cowboys, @ Bucs, @ Panthers, Steelers, Panthers.
Really, I don't know who will be beat them but enough in there one sub-par game and they will drop one. 14-2 or 15-1 looks pretty likely barring something drastic. As they hold the tie break against the Rams, LA prob need to win out to finish on top of the NFC. Their remaining games: @ Lions, @ Bears, Eagles, @ Cardinals, Niners. Game against the Bears looks huge with Chicago sitting pretty to win their division.
Home field is going to be so important, I'd give the edge to whoever has it between the Saints and Rams - LA did enough in New Orleans for me to suggest they have the quality needed to win at home against Brees and co.
Meanwhile, the Saints are making a mockery of the tough schedule. Remaining games as follows: Falcons, @ Cowboys, @ Bucs, @ Panthers, Steelers, Panthers.
Really, I don't know who will be beat them but enough in there one sub-par game and they will drop one. 14-2 or 15-1 looks pretty likely barring something drastic. As they hold the tie break against the Rams, LA prob need to win out to finish on top of the NFC. Their remaining games: @ Lions, @ Bears, Eagles, @ Cardinals, Niners. Game against the Bears looks huge with Chicago sitting pretty to win their division.
Home field is going to be so important, I'd give the edge to whoever has it between the Saints and Rams - LA did enough in New Orleans for me to suggest they have the quality needed to win at home against Brees and co.
Nov 17, 2018 -- 7:56PM, tobermory wrote:
Market doesn't seem to follow results very closely...At last update I posted...Houston 4-3 were @36. Now 6-3 and still 36.Colts were 2-5 and 170. Now 4-5 and 200.Best of all Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75
Heavyweights just too impressive - they aren't just winning they're clobbering teams. The three teams you mentioned just look like playoff fodder against the likes of KC, Pittsburgh, NE, LA and New Orleans.
Just did the math on the big 5, grouped you're getting about 1.32 against the field.
tobermory • November 18, 2018 1:56 AM GMT
Market doesn't seem to follow results very closely...
Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75
market seems to follow injury news a lot closer than you do
Market doesn't seem to follow results very closely...
Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75
market seems to follow injury news a lot closer than you do
Yes, I didn't realize how many they had lost for the season.
Though I think Rhino is correct that the main thing is people finding it hard to believe that teams like Houston eking out wins are gonna be competitive against what the Top 3 in the market are doing every week.
Though I think Rhino is correct that the main thing is people finding it hard to believe that teams like Houston eking out wins are gonna be competitive against what the Top 3 in the market are doing every week.
Rams have had 2 games against Seahawks and another against the packers that really could have gone either way. So that in itself says they may be vulnerable in any one of game against a half decent side. Too short imo.
Philadelphia too big @100
If they beat Redskins and Dallas lose to Saints all three will be 6-6
If they beat Redskins and Dallas lose to Saints all three will be 6-6
Massive massive loss for Chiefs with Hunt being a naughty boy...
Can't win it imo.
Can't win it imo.
certainly find out how good Mahomes is now jedi
why are Saints being layed so much tonight 
Were 4.1 pre Dallas, settled on 5.1-5.2 the next day but all out to 6.4 now
Were 4.1 pre Dallas, settled on 5.1-5.2 the next day but all out to 6.4 now
The Kareem Hunt thing was handbags if the video online was all that happened. Drunken shoving around.
What a display by Bears.Superb D.Nagy some great stuff.
Goff bottle looked a tad questionable imo. Scared stiff...
Goff bottle looked a tad questionable imo. Scared stiff...
could be a bit of a boilover this year,at the prices chargers,ravens,steelers and bears maybe worth dutching,chargers will win out I think,chiefs have a tough one in seattle coming up,ravens look far to big,bears D is good
if Steelers dont win the AFC North they probably wont get a wild card they have got to play Saints Pats and Cincy in the last game who would absolutely love to shaft them given the history
tbh Tomlin could lose to anyone at the moment
tbh Tomlin could lose to anyone at the moment
yeah its all in the prices,IF pitt win tmrw they'll end #4 with a home game and if KC win their division and Pitt the wild card they'd be happy to play at arrowhead in the divisional round,if ravens end up #6 they could potentially put it up to a #3 NE although its all ifs and buts,just not keen on NE or KC in AFC as things stand
steelers' goose is cooked if they lose tonight,big win for the ravens last night
Was thinking last night Baltimore to win the AFC conference had got to value, beaten the Chargers only lost by 3 to the Chiefs and the Pats and Houston look off the pace.
Lol and behold https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/24/18155038/baltimore-ravens-lamar-jac...
Lol and behold https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/24/18155038/baltimore-ravens-lamar-jac...
Steelers are done now cant believe Tomlin has mismanaged all that talent-they are going to have big problems next season
just matching the Ravens, and especially the Browns, and that's just the AFC North.
If Ben's production goes they are stuffed QB-wise-no back ups and I dont think AB will stick around next season with a
rookie QB.
just matching the Ravens, and especially the Browns, and that's just the AFC North.
If Ben's production goes they are stuffed QB-wise-no back ups and I dont think AB will stick around next season with a
rookie QB.
Steelers will be ok if they ever get rid of that clown Tomlin
Some cracking matches tonight.
Big on Bears and unsure whether want a win for them and possibly eliminate them and let in Eagles? Think rather Vikings at home than Eagles.
Hoping Titans take care of Colts but think actually underdogs.
Browns v Ravens should be on TV too...Red zone it is.
Good luck lads,pity these threads gone quiet,love the NFL.
Big on Bears and unsure whether want a win for them and possibly eliminate them and let in Eagles? Think rather Vikings at home than Eagles.
Hoping Titans take care of Colts but think actually underdogs.
Browns v Ravens should be on TV too...Red zone it is.
Good luck lads,pity these threads gone quiet,love the NFL.
having a decent bet on bucks +3 at home to the falcons also going to play on moneyline as well
Going into the playoffs I still have a couple of runners from my original four punts. Looking at the 12 teams left, for once, I'd say virtually any of them can win it all.
Of the two that didn't make it, Tennessee management must be tearing their hair out that it doesn't seem to take much to keep Mariota on the sidelines. Virtually any other QB in the league would have at least given it a go. Mariota didn't even try to warm up. He's not good enough to be only playing when he fancies it anyway. Timeform double squiggle from me
Arizona managed to get the first overall pick in the draft which is not exactly what your hoping for as a backer (!) but they could be very interesting in the next couple of years (though it looks like being probably the toughest division in the league). They shelved the season within a few games and went with the rookie QB instead. Most reporters are expecting the coach to get sacked within hours after just one season which would seem to be ridiculous to me in the circumstances. Joey Bosa's brother could be good fit for the #1 pick
Of the two that didn't make it, Tennessee management must be tearing their hair out that it doesn't seem to take much to keep Mariota on the sidelines. Virtually any other QB in the league would have at least given it a go. Mariota didn't even try to warm up. He's not good enough to be only playing when he fancies it anyway. Timeform double squiggle from me
Arizona managed to get the first overall pick in the draft which is not exactly what your hoping for as a backer (!) but they could be very interesting in the next couple of years (though it looks like being probably the toughest division in the league). They shelved the season within a few games and went with the rookie QB instead. Most reporters are expecting the coach to get sacked within hours after just one season which would seem to be ridiculous to me in the circumstances. Joey Bosa's brother could be good fit for the #1 pick
| 3.95 | New Orleans Saints 13-3 | 22 | LA Chargers 12-4 | |
| 5.9 | Kansas City Chiefs 12-4 | 32 | Dallas Cowboys 10-6 | |
| 6.8 | LA Rams 13-3 | 32 | Indianapolis Colts 10-6 | |
| 7.6 | New England Patriots 11-5 | 34 | Houston Texans 11-5 | |
| 13.5 | Chicago Bears 12-4 | 36 | Seattle Seahawks10-6 | |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens 10-6 | 44 | Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 |
Some happy news. People might remember Ryan Shazier suffering a serious spinal injury and then getting a standing ovation for making his way onto the stage at the last NFL draft. At that point it looked likely he would be disabled for the rest of his life. However, his recovery since then has been pretty amazing to the point where he has recently resumed jogging
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